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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

S

Solidsnakejej

Member
Euro just went outlier territory with it going hard into Cuba before turning North, goes to show that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the storm.
 
I

Irminsul

Member
ECMWF model 0z:

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watld5ude.gif
Click to expand...

The next storm to the East doesn't seem as willing to follow up Irma as it is in the GFS model.
 
D

dabig2

Member
Irminsul said:
ECMWF model 0z:



The next storm to the East doesn't seem as willing to follow up Irma as it is in the GFS model.
Click to expand...

The pressures here look a little high? The storm is already at 939 MB and getting stronger by the hour it seems. Is the Euro anticipating some weakening or do they not have the current pressures calculated for this run?
 
I

Irminsul

Member
dabig2 said:
The pressures here look a little high? The storm is already at 939 MB and getting stronger by the hour it seems. Is the Euro anticipating some weakening or do they not have the current pressures calculated for this run?
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's a bit weird. Still, for the "final" landfall (on Florida), I think only the extreme deepening after leaving Cuba is relevant.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
dabig2 said:
The pressures here look a little high? The storm is already at 939 MB and getting stronger by the hour it seems. Is the Euro anticipating some weakening or do they not have the current pressures calculated for this run?
Click to expand...

It initialized with a pressure about 20mb too high so I would ignore the pressure values there since it's wrong from the start. The track is plausible though.
 
G

Generate

Banned
It has that truck tire look. This is an extremely dangerous storm. Even if it weakens, the storm surge is going to be enormous. It could become annular like Isabel was.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
All the new major model runs are farther west again, with the envelope after day 5 now centered on the western half of Florida. This is one savage Bermuda High.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
aspiegamer said:
All the new major model runs are farther west again, with the envelope after day 5 now centered on the western half of Florida. This is one savage Bermuda High.
Click to expand...

I'm suppressing any flashbacks until at least Thursday.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Next mission about to enter.
Suikoguy said:
I'm suppressing any flashbacks until at least Thursday.
Click to expand...
Smidget said:
Looking more and more like a bigger Charley it seems?
Click to expand...
We're going to need a term for the alley between Cuba and the Bahamas. Whatever it is, Irma wants to roll up straight through it.

This is already the 7th damn day we've had advisories.
mentallyinept said:
I feel like Cat4 or Cat5 landfall is inevitable now, it's just a matter of where.
Click to expand...
It somehow holding that kind of strength together for another 5 full days while shrugging off any land on its fringes would be... well. Terrifying. I wouldn't rule anything out anymore. There are no rules anymore.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Smidget said:
Looking more and more like a bigger Charley it seems?
Click to expand...

Looking like i'll need to decide if we are getting 'out of dodge' this time around...

Charley's combination of a last minute turn, insanely fast strengthening, and crazy speed made evacuation not much of an option.

Improvements were made to the house after Charley (the total failure of the Garage Door was replaced with updated with a modern one, and additional support straps holding the roof on). But i'm still worried that a slower moving storm would cause problems beyond what the changes that were made could withstand.

I'm convinced if Charley moved at a more regular pace, the house would have been a total loss, and I might not even be around to post.
Edit: (As it stood, 3 houses on the street were total losses).
 
S

Smidget

Member
Suikoguy said:
Looking like i'll need to decide if we are getting 'out of dodge' this time around...

Charley's combination of a last minute turn, insanely fast strengthening, and crazy speed made evacuation not much of an option.

Improvements were made to the house after Charley (the total failure of the Garage Door was replaced with updated with a modern one, and additional support straps holding the roof on). But i'm still worried that a slower moving storm would cause problems beyond what the changes that were made could withstand.

I'm convinced if Charley moved at a more regular pace, the house would have been a total loss, and I might not even be around to post.
Click to expand...

Where are you at? Tampa area I guess? I'm in East Orlando and had lots of downed trees/powerlines and without power for a while. That was about it.

That was the one good thing about Charley, it went through super fast. Very hard, but very fast. And very little rain.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Smidget said:
Where are you at? Tampa area I guess? I'm in East Orlando and had lots of downed trees/powerlines and without power for a while. That was about it.

That was the one good thing about Charley, it went through super fast. Very hard, but very fast. And very little rain.
Click to expand...

No significant storm surge either.

I'm in the area where the storm initially went through after landfall, we were without power for weeks.
 
Warnen

Warnen

Don't pass gaas, it is your Destiny!
Every day it's tracking more and more to the west, gulf coast peeps I'd keep an eye out. I'm just out side of Boca Raton, got all my stuff already and waiting till Friday to put up the shutters. Not gonna let this storm ruin destiny 2 launch day for me!
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Irminsul said:
ECMWF model 0z:



The next storm to the East doesn't seem as willing to follow up Irma as it is in the GFS model.
Click to expand...

FUUUUUCK. That path has a direct hit to the Keys, Marco Island and Naples. If you're looking for a good deal on expensive property post storm, it's great. For everyone else, we're screwed.
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
When does this beast start to turn north?!! I'm evacuating my family to a stronger place, I don't trust that it'll turn upwards enough to only graze us. St. Croix here.
 
D

dEvAnGeL

Member
stay safe everyone, remember as hard as it is loosing your things you work so hard to get they can always be replaced, easier said than done but your well being and your loved ones matter most.
 
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