The Switch is a pretty expensive 3DS replacement isn't it? Plus it seems likely that Switch games will be developed as home console games first and foremost. Even with comparable hardware it just doesn't always work that well to take a console game and just shrink it down.
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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The Switch is a pretty expensive 3DS replacement isn't it? Plus it seems likely that Switch games will be developed as home console games first and foremost. Even with comparable hardware it just doesn't always work that well to take a console game and just shrink it down.
Personally, I don't feel like the system offers good value at that combined price point. Paywall'd online (eventually), 330 for bare bones system without game, around seventy Eurodollars for games, hidden cost due to the sparse internal memory practically necessitating SD card purchase in the middle to long run, luxurious prices for accessories. Combine that with a so-so lineup and spotty release calendar, which was the thing that really bent Nintendo over the barrel with the WiiU and 3DS (and required some desperate measures to rectify). Plus, the online service is entirely unproven and lacks appeal. The way they outsource much of the online goodies to the smartphone app seems fishy, and the fact that the entire thing isn't even up and running yet makes me fear what is to come. Battery life is at the low end, but that's kinda unavoidable I guess. Still disappointing.
So, from my perspective, it's a flawed, but somewhat intriguing handheld, a flawed and pretty unexciting home console, and I do not expect it to have much draw outside the faithful. That'd put it around GameCube or WiiU levels of sales, I guess. At least I feel like the momentum just isn't there, barring any further hype building until release (Treehouse, further PR/announcements, etc).
I'd be really happy to be proven wrong though, being a Nintendo fan at heart and all. There's always the end of year period in 2017, where they could potentially gain some traction with a stable release library, a bundle or two, plus the new Mario and whatnot. Plus a new firmware update that addresses any previous complaints, and then some. I guess. If MS and Sony leave them alone. And if word of mouth is good. And if they trickle out teasers and games and whatnot to keep switch in the hearts and minds of gamers. And so on. Hrm.
So, anyways, GameCube or WiiU, or in between the two for me. Probably far closer to the latter than the former. Pessimism, yay!
So, from my perspective, it's a flawed, but somewhat intriguing handheld, a flawed and pretty unexciting home console, and I do not expect it to have much draw outside the faithful. That'd put it around GameCube or WiiU levels of sales, I guess. At least I feel like the momentum just isn't there, barring any further hype building until release (Treehouse, further PR/announcements, etc).
I'd be really happy to be proven wrong though, being a Nintendo fan at heart and all. There's always the end of year period in 2017, where they could potentially gain some traction with a stable release library, a bundle or two, plus the new Mario and whatnot. Plus a new firmware update that addresses any previous complaints, and then some. I guess. If MS and Sony leave them alone. And if word of mouth is good. And if they trickle out teasers and games and whatnot to keep switch in the hearts and minds of gamers. And so on. Hrm.
So, anyways, GameCube or WiiU, or in between the two for me. Probably far closer to the latter than the former. Pessimism, yay!
BrutishMrFish
Member
I would be shocked if it were. For just how little it offers in terms of power, features, and games compared to the PS4 and XBone, it's way too close to them in price.
I've stuck with Nintendo since the Gamecube, but I doubt even Smash Bros could convince me to get this. And if someone like me isn't interested, I can't imagine the general public would be any more enthusiastic.
I've stuck with Nintendo since the Gamecube, but I doubt even Smash Bros could convince me to get this. And if someone like me isn't interested, I can't imagine the general public would be any more enthusiastic.
Tertullian
Member
It's astonishing, just astonishing, that they can be so arrogant after losing 9/10 of their home console customer base with the Wii U. How can they think they've earned the right to charge for online when they have the worst online services, apparently can't even get their online services working worldwide at launch, and in fact can't even get a basic video sharing function working in time? How can they think they've earned the right to charge $300 for a console again, let alone $300 for what is principally a handheld? How, how in the fuck, can they think they've earned the right to charge $70 for a (rather ugly) standard controller, or $110 for new joycons with grip? All this when their third party support is worse than it's ever been? And how did they manage to put forward such a garbage software lineup overall, when they've released just fucking nothing for the Wii U for the past year and a half?
It's dead on arrival. The good news is, the core concept is still sound (as the Wii U's was not), so they still have a chance to save it. But can anything wake them up, if the Wii U catastrophe did not?
It's dead on arrival. The good news is, the core concept is still sound (as the Wii U's was not), so they still have a chance to save it. But can anything wake them up, if the Wii U catastrophe did not?
Milly Osworth
Member
I hope so. Nintendo seems to suck at everything that is not developing actual games. And that's not a bad thing. But then just focus on making those games!
onemanasylum
Banned
What exactly is there for the Casuals? Casuals are not buying this for $300....the wii days are gone. Not sure why people keep bringing up casuals, this is aimed at hardcore nintendo fans only, there is nothing here to entice casuals.
I'm definitely in the train of thought that says they're charging this high to drop it around the holidays (hopefully). This way they can get some early adopter money, and the cost of producing it will go down. We'll see and I think a big blockaid for them is going to be that price
LordBaztion
Member
It will be better than WiiU but worse than 3DS. Launch Will be rocky due to lack of games and price but the thing will get eventually Pokémon and all the nintendo games once exclusive to handhelds, then it will sell better.
InsaneFandom
Member
It'll do better than the WiiU
Other than that I dunno, looks like it could seriously struggle if they don't drop the price or at least offer good bundles within the first year or so.
The console + paid online + game prices + extra controller prices adds up to quite a lot imo, not sure how many people will buy it as a secondary console when it's significantly more expensive than PS4 & Xbone. Even if it gets good third party support I just can't see it seriously competing as a primary console at this point
It all depends on how much it takes over the handheld market I guess. Stuff like mainline Pokémon could drive a lot of sales, but it'll always come back to the price.
Vague prediction: WW it'll sell better than WiiU, worse than Xbone
Other than that I dunno, looks like it could seriously struggle if they don't drop the price or at least offer good bundles within the first year or so.
The console + paid online + game prices + extra controller prices adds up to quite a lot imo, not sure how many people will buy it as a secondary console when it's significantly more expensive than PS4 & Xbone. Even if it gets good third party support I just can't see it seriously competing as a primary console at this point
It all depends on how much it takes over the handheld market I guess. Stuff like mainline Pokémon could drive a lot of sales, but it'll always come back to the price.
Vague prediction: WW it'll sell better than WiiU, worse than Xbone
Uhh, no, I don't see it being a success. Over $300 after tax, paid online a few months after launch, expensive accessories, and an anemic launch lineup. Hardcore Nintendo fans might possibly get it for Zelda, but there's hardly anything interesting for the casual crowd imo when they can get the PS4/X1 for the same price or cheaper with a lot of the same games.
I thought I was a hardcore Nintendo fan (I've owned every console since N64, buy a ton of software) and they managed to turn me off. A couple of my casual gaming buddies completely lost interest as well.
I thought I was a hardcore Nintendo fan (I've owned every console since N64, buy a ton of software) and they managed to turn me off. A couple of my casual gaming buddies completely lost interest as well.
SporeCrawler
Member
2 million world wide was the number they had as a target i think
It also didn't sell out within minutes either. I got one hours after they went live, and other people seem to still be getting them if you check out the other threads.
My opinion has many similarities with what many have expressed here. I think launch will be ok but after that the console will be in Wii U territory based on the parameters announced in the conference. Then Nintendo will correct some things, hopefully not too late, and then there is chance for 3DS like success.
In my view the positioning for the Switch should be as the succesor of the 3DS that also acts as a home console for those who prefer that way of playing. So the inverse of what they are marketing. In order to be succesful, which I define as selling at least 10 million per year on average (ideally 15, but let's be prudent), they need the 3DS audience. And to have the 3DS audience they need first the right price, which is 199 €/$ maximum as soon as possible (not necessarily at launch, but price reduction should be planned and not rushed as it seemed with the 3DS).
All the gimmicks like detachable controllers, HD rumble, local multiplayer with just one console etc are good, but should be seen only as differentiating factors, from mobile and from the other home consoles. If this strategy is what makes the price what it is, then the gimmicks should not be there: the true differentiating factors is Nintendo games with Nintendo brands.
To complement the 3DS audience, they need to seek for the Nintendo fans and the videogame fans in general (as a secondary console for those); this last group is also very price sensitive for a secondary console.
Most of what I saw in the conference went in the wrong direction:
1) While it is ok to charge a premium at launch, the price is so far from the goal I stated that I am afraid they will not get there on time.
2) The pricing of accesories gives the impression that the price at launch is not just a miscalculation but someting more embedded into the Nintendo approach to this product (or even the need to cover costs of the product itself); as I said, the wrong approach because it leaves the Switch out of its main market.
3) Online fee and the details they have given about free rental of a NES or SNES game and use of a smartphone is just terrible. Nintendo does not have the online games that the other systems have, let alone the features, so there is no way they should charge for this. They should keep free online and market it as a feature. I understand they want the money in it, but then they should play the game the competitors do; you cannot have everything.
4) The games will come and will be great. I have at least 25 or 30 Nintendo games for any Nintendo console, so I know this. But the conference also left me with doubts about the software plans. They needed to give evidence that the 3DS level of support will be there, as an extension of the more console oriented support. This was not clear. Again, pricing of games will also be an issue unless they adopt a tiered pricing approach (they did this in my country with Wii U and it was a good approach I think).
5) Also in terms of sofware support, the way they presented Sega support and No More Heroes 3 was abysmal. SMT5 at least had a nice teaser but not a good sign they chose a game that 'just started development'.
All in all, I think the Switch will probably be moderately succesful if it really gets all Nintendo support during the next 4 years (save for minimal mobile distractions) and provided the price drops to 250 at absolute most. But the conference left me with many doubts about if they know what they are doing, or if they are convinced of it.
In my view the positioning for the Switch should be as the succesor of the 3DS that also acts as a home console for those who prefer that way of playing. So the inverse of what they are marketing. In order to be succesful, which I define as selling at least 10 million per year on average (ideally 15, but let's be prudent), they need the 3DS audience. And to have the 3DS audience they need first the right price, which is 199 €/$ maximum as soon as possible (not necessarily at launch, but price reduction should be planned and not rushed as it seemed with the 3DS).
All the gimmicks like detachable controllers, HD rumble, local multiplayer with just one console etc are good, but should be seen only as differentiating factors, from mobile and from the other home consoles. If this strategy is what makes the price what it is, then the gimmicks should not be there: the true differentiating factors is Nintendo games with Nintendo brands.
To complement the 3DS audience, they need to seek for the Nintendo fans and the videogame fans in general (as a secondary console for those); this last group is also very price sensitive for a secondary console.
Most of what I saw in the conference went in the wrong direction:
1) While it is ok to charge a premium at launch, the price is so far from the goal I stated that I am afraid they will not get there on time.
2) The pricing of accesories gives the impression that the price at launch is not just a miscalculation but someting more embedded into the Nintendo approach to this product (or even the need to cover costs of the product itself); as I said, the wrong approach because it leaves the Switch out of its main market.
3) Online fee and the details they have given about free rental of a NES or SNES game and use of a smartphone is just terrible. Nintendo does not have the online games that the other systems have, let alone the features, so there is no way they should charge for this. They should keep free online and market it as a feature. I understand they want the money in it, but then they should play the game the competitors do; you cannot have everything.
4) The games will come and will be great. I have at least 25 or 30 Nintendo games for any Nintendo console, so I know this. But the conference also left me with doubts about the software plans. They needed to give evidence that the 3DS level of support will be there, as an extension of the more console oriented support. This was not clear. Again, pricing of games will also be an issue unless they adopt a tiered pricing approach (they did this in my country with Wii U and it was a good approach I think).
5) Also in terms of sofware support, the way they presented Sega support and No More Heroes 3 was abysmal. SMT5 at least had a nice teaser but not a good sign they chose a game that 'just started development'.
All in all, I think the Switch will probably be moderately succesful if it really gets all Nintendo support during the next 4 years (save for minimal mobile distractions) and provided the price drops to 250 at absolute most. But the conference left me with many doubts about if they know what they are doing, or if they are convinced of it.
GetSomeSponge
Member
I can see this being Nintendo's final console honestly, I'm hoping to be surprised but it looks like more needless gimmicks which have thrown the price up.
The main selling point for Nintendo consoles now is party games and great local multi-player, I feel they really should have tried to capitalise on that, so cheap buy in price and controllers, less focus on gimmicks. The hardware doesn't even need to be as powerful as ps4/xbone to keep costs down.
Most importantly it needed a stronger lineup at release.
The main selling point for Nintendo consoles now is party games and great local multi-player, I feel they really should have tried to capitalise on that, so cheap buy in price and controllers, less focus on gimmicks. The hardware doesn't even need to be as powerful as ps4/xbone to keep costs down.
Most importantly it needed a stronger lineup at release.
Dangansona
Member
Jesus Christ is GAF that pessimistic? I'm going to say yes it will do well. It seems like they have their marketing back again because the Switch logo and animation is pretty neat, the concept itself is easy to explain, and even if the launch lineup could be better games are going to start rolling out for this thing compared to previous Nintendo consoles.
And $300 is too much? Really?
And $300 is too much? Really?
AcademicSaucer
Member
They said around 80 games on development, PS4 adn Xbox have hundreds , Nintendo is fucked. Those droughts are going to be brutal.
I think it'll do decent numbers, but it won't level with PS4 and Xbone. I know many look at it as a handheld first and a console second, but I don't think the consumer who is in the market for a video game product will factor that in, especially with PS4 Pro still being a new product, and a new Xbox coming this year.
It will be competing with both consoles in a very heavy year with big multiplatform games that most likely will not come over to the Switch such as: Mass Effect, Red Dead 2, Destiny 2, and more. I think it'll do better than Wii U, but definitely not 3DS numbers.
It will be competing with both consoles in a very heavy year with big multiplatform games that most likely will not come over to the Switch such as: Mass Effect, Red Dead 2, Destiny 2, and more. I think it'll do better than Wii U, but definitely not 3DS numbers.
Killer app Zelda, True 3D Mario. Reportedly a mainline Pokemon game.
Also presumably this will actually drop in price unlike the Wii U.
I think it's open for debate whether this is less appealing than the Wii U (which is scary), but Switch does have some big points in its favor even with some of the seeming missteps. The first party lineup is stronger than what was there at Wii U launch.
That casual market has moved on to smartphone games like candy crush. They aren't going to spend hundreds of dollars on a system to play one or two games when they can download a game on their smartphone for free. Wii sports was a fad and those customers are long gone by now.
I am trying not to be too hard on the Switch, I just wasn't blown away by the presentation.
SporeCrawler
Member
it also has splatoon, fire emblem musou, arms and xenoblad 2 comming this year but whatever suits your image
1,2 switch though
on a more serious note: If you look at how pokemon moon and sun sold after pokemon go I could see a pokemon stars selling quite well too. also mario might get a serious boost after the succesful launch of mario run
its the first year though.
Me and probably some others think the same thing. I mean they even went back to the Wii with the joy cons.
The Wii U gamepad should have been an accessory for the Switch. Been saying this for a while:
the N64 shoulda been the GC,
the GC shoulda been the Wii,
the Wii shoulda been the Wii U,
the Wii U shoulda been the Switch.
They constantly seem to stay a gen behind with their ideas on home consoles. Or in the case of the Wii U not capitalizing on the success of the Wii.
The Switch seems like a better evolution from the Wii than the Wii U was. The Wii U seemed like them trying to figure out where they fit in instead of knowing where they fit in.
Zack Zavage
Member
Don't underestimate the portable aspect. I think this is what will make the Switch more successful than the Wii U, if only by a margin.
I mean, as a gamer my first thought after the presentation was that this thing will bomb hard.
But after thinking about it a little, being able to play a new full console version of Zelda on a plane/train? And what about Mario, Skyrim, FIFA, all on the go and not the terrible handheld or mobile versions you usually get!
Casual gamers don't care about FPS, low res or no 8h battery life, they will eat up this shit (and hell, I will too).
So I think it will be a success, maybe will have a similar trajectory to the Wii (albeit in smaller scale).
EDIT: It should've had the "1, 2, Switch" game packed in though, huge mistake on that front.
But after thinking about it a little, being able to play a new full console version of Zelda on a plane/train? And what about Mario, Skyrim, FIFA, all on the go and not the terrible handheld or mobile versions you usually get!
Casual gamers don't care about FPS, low res or no 8h battery life, they will eat up this shit (and hell, I will too).
So I think it will be a success, maybe will have a similar trajectory to the Wii (albeit in smaller scale).
EDIT: It should've had the "1, 2, Switch" game packed in though, huge mistake on that front.
Duxxy3
Member
Full retreat to handheld, mobile and nostalgia hardware.
Exploding8
Member
Nope.
The only thing going for it is the typical Nintendo exclusives angle, but I've learned multiple times now that its best to just wait a few years because they struggle to release new games.
I still don't even have a PS4 yet. Why would I spend $300 + games + accessories for a console that is underpowered, with hardly any worthwhile new games at launch, when I could either A: Spend a bit more for a PS4 Pro, a MUCH more powerful piece of hardware, and its library of great exclusives, or B: Find a PS4 on Craigslist for like $100-$200, and likely with a few games chipped in on top of that?
Considering this is my perspective, as someone that has had videogames as a hobby for most of their life, why would the average person feel justified buying one? The person that is content with mobile gaming on their phone or actual tablet with good battery life, i.e. has no need for a tablet mode that only lasts realistically probably 2 hours max (given they said 3.5 hours, and considering battery estimates in my experience are ALWAYS bs).
As others have mentioned, the only real audience for this is people who enjoy Nintendo exclusives enough to buy one. And I think a lot of us have learned that you might as well wait a bit for those exclusives to actually exist.
The only thing going for it is the typical Nintendo exclusives angle, but I've learned multiple times now that its best to just wait a few years because they struggle to release new games.
I still don't even have a PS4 yet. Why would I spend $300 + games + accessories for a console that is underpowered, with hardly any worthwhile new games at launch, when I could either A: Spend a bit more for a PS4 Pro, a MUCH more powerful piece of hardware, and its library of great exclusives, or B: Find a PS4 on Craigslist for like $100-$200, and likely with a few games chipped in on top of that?
Considering this is my perspective, as someone that has had videogames as a hobby for most of their life, why would the average person feel justified buying one? The person that is content with mobile gaming on their phone or actual tablet with good battery life, i.e. has no need for a tablet mode that only lasts realistically probably 2 hours max (given they said 3.5 hours, and considering battery estimates in my experience are ALWAYS bs).
As others have mentioned, the only real audience for this is people who enjoy Nintendo exclusives enough to buy one. And I think a lot of us have learned that you might as well wait a bit for those exclusives to actually exist.
boiled goose
good with gravy
In 4 gens we've gotten 1 graphics upgrade for Nintendo home consoles.
Crazy.
With the wiiU and 3ds, I purchased them near the end of their lifetimes because of cheaper hardware, increased features, and solid libraries. Even then I refuse to buy digital content on Nintendo due to their horrible digital content management practices.
Compare that to lining up to buy a Wii on launch day.
With Switch, online seems to be even worse. Same issues as before but now paid... I might not buy a switch at all now.
Sony had people buying ps4 before there were any games on it. Nintendo's platform makes fans question whether to invest in the hardware at all.
Worrisome for Nintendo.
It's like they are chasing an audience that doesn't exist. If the WiiU didn't prove to You they are clueless...
Crazy.
With the wiiU and 3ds, I purchased them near the end of their lifetimes because of cheaper hardware, increased features, and solid libraries. Even then I refuse to buy digital content on Nintendo due to their horrible digital content management practices.
Compare that to lining up to buy a Wii on launch day.
With Switch, online seems to be even worse. Same issues as before but now paid... I might not buy a switch at all now.
Sony had people buying ps4 before there were any games on it. Nintendo's platform makes fans question whether to invest in the hardware at all.
Worrisome for Nintendo.
It's like they are chasing an audience that doesn't exist. If the WiiU didn't prove to You they are clueless...
onemanasylum
Banned
I like how you ignore all the points that have been discussed in this thread.....Yes what evidence do we have that games will be "Rolling Out' Compared to other Nintendo consoles? There was nothing in that event that shows that, third parties were nearly non-existent.,
That's a valid point, yeah.
Air Zombie Meat
Member
Hardware concept has more of a chance than wii u but right now it looks like they've dropped the ball on software. Controller\online issues don't help either. It's chances are looking bleak to me until some real must haves for the wider market drop.
TimeEffect
Member
Do we know the specs yet? It feels as if nintendo is trying to do both and bombing at both
Too weak to be a home console, too big to be a portable device. Its an absolute fools errand to expect people around the world to take this with them on their day to day. Why even try if it sacrifices home console benefits?
It just feels as if they dont have the specs to go through with a hybrid device and now Im regretting wanting something that does both
I want a 4DS device and I want a home console. Im not seeing how they can work together.
I also think its crazy that Nintendo is launching completely out of sync with its competitors
How on earth are they going to convince buyers to pick a Switch over a PS4? When the PS4 has a huge library and is selling at $300?
Conkerkid11
Member
Dangansona
Member
It's almost like we are foolishly placing the fate of the console on a late night Japanese press conference.
gutterboy44
Member
The new Zelda and Mario already look about 100x more interesting than anything ever released on WiiU, but I don't see Nintendo doing much better than WiiU with Switch. I think it will be an improvement, but I don't see any of the mass market they had with Wii coming back for this. Too high a price point, parents feeling burned by just buying a WiiU "yesterday", never going to be a 3DS repleacement with the price and battery life, and I am still not convinced Nintendo has the development capacity to release enough games themselves to make it worth while for many. 3rd party support will go exactly the way of Wii. Lots of hope upfront, then a quick death that is never mentioned again.
That said, I still really want to play the new Zelda and I haven't given a shit about Zelda since Windwaker. Guess I will have to wait until they are on the cheap on Craigslist in a few years.
That said, I still really want to play the new Zelda and I haven't given a shit about Zelda since Windwaker. Guess I will have to wait until they are on the cheap on Craigslist in a few years.
Papacheeks
Banned
Alot of those pre-orders will be seen on Ebay, as well as our own trade thread.
Many are also fans wanting to give it a chance, but new release shine and hype is easy to get swept up into also.
I am sure that Reggie will be pimping these out to the Ellen show to be given out and they will try and recapture that Wii lightning in a bottle but the legs will tell the story
Nose Master
Member
There's no reason outside to buy at launch outside of buying new stuff because it's new. Not gonna get one til Mario.
I'd say it's a lock for Japan because mobile, but the social aspect might kill that.
I'd say it's a lock for Japan because mobile, but the social aspect might kill that.
there also won't be enough porn games on it for Japan.
MadOdorMachine
No additional functions
I don't think the Switch as we currently know it will be a success, but I think there's a possibility that in the future Nintendo will release revisions that will be cheaper. I understand why they went with an all-in-one system first because it's fundamental that people know that the games are playable on both a handheld and a console. If that is their plan, I'm not sure they've gone about executing the idea in the best way, but I can understand it. In the future, I hope they release a separate bare bones handheld and console. I don't see the Switch performing much better than Wii U up until then. When looking at it long term, I think there may be more to the idea of NX than just the Switch. Whether this is planned or they have to take drastic measures like they did with the 3DS, I think they have to get the price down. So as it currently stands, I don't see the Switch as being successful. Long term, if they use the Switch as a starting point and build off of it, I think they can be successful.
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