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[paile]

paile you're doing in a rudimentary form what's called "technical analysis." Which is separate from judging if the thing invested in is actually worth something. It's like if I were to decide to invest in Tesla Motors I looked at mathematical trends of the stock price instead of the balance sheet or earnings. You're trying to capitalize on market psychology not actual value.

Sure, you're right, that is what I am doing.

The news that is going on in the Bitcoin world has little consequence for me as a swing trader. I am purely relying on technicals to make my trades. Gox goes down and the price crashes? What do I know will happen next? people will think 'buy opportunity' and I want to be there to ride the recovery. With that being said, the fundamentals of Bitcoin (as noted in my previous post) are right there for all to see all the same.

 

[Chichikov]

Speculative activity precedes real world activity. These same arguments were being made when Bitcoin hit $1, $10, $100 and $1000. Clearly it has value of sorts to people because clearly people would not be being into it otherwise.

So yes there is inherent value to bitcoin that does not exist with other currencies. Transactions can be completely anonymous. It can be sent anywhere in the world within a few hours. It is inherently deflationary as noted, as thus can act as a store of wealth.

It is the 'money of the internet' in many respects. After getting fiat into it I can then do all sorts of things with it; I can gamble it, I can trade it, I can buy goods and services from those who accept it. I can transact with bitcoin far more efficiently and quickly than I can with fiat.

There are a lot of intrinsic benefits to bitcoin. Claiming that it is purely an instrument of speculation and illegal activity is not true at all.

Bitcoin volume in the last 24 hours was 50 million dollars, how much of it you think was actual buying shit with it?
Shit man, just look at the volatility, it can't be bee explained by increased real world demand for anonymous virtual currency. This is a speculative bubble, bitcoin price reflects that fact that many people think it will continue to rise.

 

[East Lake]

What if what happens next is that a government body cracks down on bitcoin and loses 99 percent of its value? Nasdaq traded security x has assets its built on (hopefully) that prevents this from happening, what does bitcoin have?

 

[Makai]

I am purely relying on technicals to make my trades. Gox goes down and the price crashes? What do I know will happen next? people will think 'buy opportunity' and I want to be there to ride the recovery. With that being said, the fundamentals of Bitcoin (as noted in my previous post) are right there for all to see all the same.

Speculation sure is easy! =']

Buy us all drinks when you make your million dollars satoshis

 

[paile]

Buy us all drinks when you make your million dollars satoshis

Depends if you believed in me or not.

You...'friad not

 

[pigeon]

Speculative activity precedes real world activity. These same arguments were being made when Bitcoin hit $1, $10, $100 and $1000. Clearly it has value of sorts to people because clearly people would not be being into it otherwise.

These are both wildly unsafe assumptions. Speculative activity often precedes nothing but more speculative activity (buy any tulips lately?), and people often spend money on all kinds of things with no transferrable value because of personal intrinsic motivators.

It is the 'money of the internet' in many respects. After getting fiat into it I can then do all sorts of things with it; I can gamble it, I can trade it, I can buy goods and services from those who accept it. I can transact with bitcoin far more efficiently and quickly than I can with fiat.

How so?

Seriously. I can buy just about anything I want to with fiat currency in thirty seconds using Amazon. I have Prime so it'll probably be here tomorrow. How, exactly, are bitcoins more efficient or quicker than that? I honestly don't see how that's possible.

 

[Water]

What useful resource allocation is being achieved by buying bitcoins at $300 and selling them at $500?
And give me a break with the "getting to the right price" talk, bitcoin market cap is over 7 billion dollars, you think that reflect anything but a speculative bubble?

I don't have an opinion on that any more than I have an opinion on what a barrel of oil should cost; I wouldn't even know where to begin estimating. But I'm convinced a good amount of people taking a position in bitcoin are thinking it has genuine long-term value, rather than day-trading.

You think there's enough productive economic activity being done with bitcoins to justify that?

Based on the numbers I've seen so far, not even close. But the correct price of bitcoin today depends on their future use.

There are people who made millions of dollars speculating on bitcoin prices and they contributed nothing to society, they are the textbook definition of parasites, they're taking away wealth without generating any.
Sure, they assume risk and might lose money, but that's only because a better parasite got the best of them, it is still not a useful activity.

Your assertions hinge on bitcoin's correct price being lower. I'm not willing to just accept that at face value - nor am I willing to just accept the opposite.

If you can prove bitcoin is worth less, or just are absolutely convinced it is, I guess you'll be putting your money where your mouth is, speculate against bitcoin, help the price drop faster and pocket the easy money?

Also, it's in the nature of speculation to be risky and occasionally fail. That outcome doesn't mean the speculation attempt wasn't justifiable based on the information available at the time, or that the activity of the speculator isn't beneficial for the market overall. To have legit reason to call the speculators that have boosted bitcoin's price up "parasites" would require not only that bitcoin is worthless (or nearly so), but also that they never believed bitcoin to have value to begin with.

 

[pigeon]

Also, it's in the nature of speculation to be risky and occasionally fail. That outcome doesn't mean the speculation attempt wasn't justifiable based on the information available at the time, or that the activity of the speculator isn't beneficial for the market overall. To have legit reason to call the speculators that have boosted bitcoin's price up "parasites" would require not only that bitcoin is worthless (or nearly so), but also that they never believed bitcoin to have value to begin with.

Actually, I think Chichikov's point is that almost all financial speculation is essentially parasitical and creates very little societal benefit, and that bitcoin is financial speculation. By its nature (and, really, by the no-trade theorem if you think about it), financial speculation is always and everywhere parasitical unless it's an explicit transfer of liquidity or risk, and even then, it MAY be parasitical if that transfer is not itself done in the service of a productive economic transaction.

 

[Chichikov]

I don't have an opinion on that any more than I have an opinion on what a barrel of oil should cost; I wouldn't even know where to begin estimating. But I'm convinced a good amount of people taking a position in bitcoin are thinking it has genuine long-term value, rather than day-trading.
Based on the numbers I've seen so far, not even close. But the correct price of bitcoin today depends on their future use.
Your assertions hinge on bitcoin's correct price being lower. I'm not willing to just accept that at face value - nor am I willing to just accept the opposite.

If you can prove bitcoin is worth less, or just are absolutely convinced it is, I guess you'll be putting your money where your mouth is, speculate against bitcoin, help the price drop faster and pocket the easy money?

Also, it's in the nature of speculation to be risky and occasionally fail. That outcome doesn't mean the speculation attempt wasn't justifiable based on the information available at the time, or that the activity of the speculator isn't beneficial for the market overall. To have legit reason to call the speculators that have boosted bitcoin's price up "parasites" would require not only that bitcoin is worthless (or nearly so), but also that they never believed bitcoin to have value to begin with.

You explain to me why people speculate on bitcoins, I understand that, they think it will go up in price and they will make money, but you're not explaining to me why that's productive economic activity.
And I'm calling them parasites because they make profit without making anything, I know parasite is a pretty strong word, but I think it's fitting here.
If you can show how what they're doing is useful, I will have to reconsider, but you're not really doing it (or maybe I just don't understand what you're saying).

p.s.
Do you reject the idea that speculative bubble can inflate prices?
Shit, we just went through a pretty bad oil bubble a few years ago that was a pretty huge drag on the world's economy.

 

[PetriP-TNT]

Oh wow are butts still a thing?

 

[Slavik81]

How so?

Seriously. I can buy just about anything I want to with fiat currency in thirty seconds using Amazon. I have Prime so it'll probably be here tomorrow. How, exactly, are bitcoins more efficient or quicker than that? I honestly don't see how that's possible.

Transaction fees are much, much lower for Bitcoin than traditional financial transactions.

Of course, unlike traditional financial systems, Bitcoin holdings are typically uninsured against loss or theft, and the transactions lack any sort of dispute resolution process. Adding those may significantly increase costs.

 

[Chichikov]

Transaction fees are much, much lower for Bitcoin than traditional financial transactions.

Of course, unlike traditional financial systems, Bitcoin holdings are typically uninsured against loss or theft, and the transactions lack any sort of dispute resolution process. Adding those may significantly increase costs.

That's not an issue with fiat currency, that is because we use card companies.
There is no reason why governments can't provide cheap or even cost free mechanism for safe online money exchange.
In fact, I think it's time they do.

 

[DarkFlow]

I have 2,000 Doge coins, I'm waiting for my bubble now.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

So it's back up to $580? What's that then, a $200 increase in about 3 days? Can't believe this shit man.

 

[Slavik81]

That's not an issue with fiat currency, that is because we use card companies.
There is no reason why governments can't provide cheap or even cost free mechanism for safe online money exchange.
In fact, I think it's time they do.

While true, such a thing doesn't exist right now. Bitcoin does. It provides is cheap, semi-anonymous electronic transactions. That's its real raison d'etre at the moment. Well, alongside massive speculation.

 

[Ty4on]

So it's back up to $580? What's that then, a $200 increase in about 3 days? Can't believe this shit man.

The one thing that is stable about bitcoins is that after a crash the value goes back up again. People were just freaking out while some lucky bought.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

The one thing that is stable about bitcoins is that after a crash the value goes back up again. People were just freaking out while some lucky bought.

Yeah I've noticed, which is why I'm disappointed I don't have money to buy in myself. Oh well.

 

[onadesertedisland]

The moment that you have difficulty converting the speculated bitcoin to what ever currency you intend to take your profit in, is when you realize how real this market is. Just like Mt. Gox going insolvent wiped out many involved. So long as you can reliably get money in and out of bitcoin, I can see this working. But, I do not foresee that going on for much longer.

Without regulations many of these other exchanges are likely pulling the same fractional reserve tricks in order to profit. The inability to create more bitcoin compounds this problem.

Gamble, but do not preach bitcoin as the future of how we do business.

 

[Chichikov]

While true, such a thing doesn't exist right now. Bitcoin does. It provides is cheap, semi-anonymous electronic transactions. That's its real raison d'etre at the moment. Well, alongside massive speculation.

Fair point.
Honestly, I misread your post, I thought you were making "bitcoin is better than fiat" argument when in fact you were making a perfectly valid and true argument about the current legitimate (I consider both gambling and drug buying legitimate by the way) uses for bitcoin, sorry about that.

Also, I really wanted to make that point about the government need to step up its game .

 

[wildfire]

Bitcoin was designed to have 0 bitcoins exist in the future. How can one say that it has a future when it is designed not to exist in the future?

Do you need to replace bitcoins when you can just keep taking a smaller fracture of one? As in it doesn't really matter how many coins there are, it could be 1 coin with 8 billion little pieces. Only the value will change.

Summit touches on why Bitcoin won't reach a value of zero. Just as much as there exists people too careless with their bitcoin wallet there will be those who will ensure some bitcoins will always be out there instead of just lost.

All that said, Bitcoin will fail to continue being the dominant currency in my life time because it's a deflationary currency and has no mechanism to replace lost currency. This promotes hoarding and the masses will move on to cryptocurrency that isn't fundamentally flawed and less obnoxious to use.

 

[FLEABttn]

Transaction fees are much, much lower for Bitcoin than traditional financial transactions.

So long as you don't want to convert your bitcoins into fiat, sure. The total fees at coinbase (buy/sell spread, 1% conversion fees on the front and back end, $0.15 ACH fees on front and back end) put it in line with credit card processing.

 

[empty vessel]

So long as you don't want to convert your bitcoins into fiat, sure. The total fees at coinbase (buy/sell spread, 1% conversion fees on the front and back end, $0.15 ACH fees on front and back end) put it in line with credit card processing.

Yeah, I could never figure out why claims that bitcoin was cheaper was true. Never seemed true to me, because of all the conversion fees. In any event, I see the solution to cheaper transaction costs to be better regulation of banks (credit card companies) and/or making payment infrastructure a public utility.

 

[tokkun]

You know, I'm not meaning to single you out by any means but your post sums up the views of all the naysayers putting me and the concept of Bitcoin down in this thread. You're happy to post your opinions on how 'down' it has been in x timeframe yet seem to have little real idea what actually happens in a bubble.

If you look at the last 30 days...really?

The reason I said to look at the last 30 days is because we were discussing whether or not the failure of Mt Gox has had an impact on the price of bitcoin. Mt. Gox froze its customers assets 3 weeks ago. I chose a window of 30 days because there had been some accusation that the information had been leaked in advance of the announcement.

If you think 30 days is the wrong period of time to analyze the effects of Mt. Gox's failure, what time period do you think is more appropriate?

I also see absolutely no reference disparaging you or the concept of bitcoin in my post. The fact that I was arguing that bitcoin traders had priced in the cost of Mt Gox's failure in advance actually ascribes a similar level of rationality to them as to traders in the conventional markets. If you still feel as if my post was denigrating you in some way, I would be gratified if you explain it in more specific detail. I should say that from my perspective, if you take a simple observation that market is down surrounding a major negative announcement as some sort of personal attack, that may be a sign that you are too emotionally tied up in the market.

 

[mashoutposse]

Two things about Bitcoin transaction fees.

-Bitcoin is not directly comparable to credit cards. To the end user, credit cards provide the core services of payment deferment and fraud insurance, along with a varied set of card-specific benefits (loyalty rewards, extended warranties of products purchased, etc). Bitcoin is digital cash. Debit cards, which also provide the means to access and spend cash electronically, have meaningfully lower fees associated with its use. PIN transactions are very close to free for all parties.

-Bitcoin transaction processing fees are currently heavily subsidized by the outsized block mining rewards being offered. No one knows what will happen to transaction fees once that reward becomes insignificant except that they will most certainly go up.

 

[Stet]

http://www.thestar.com/business/201...ptcy_finance_minister_says_i_told_you_so.html

Well, that's that for Mt. Gox officially now. 800,000 BTC unaccounted for.

 

[alejob]

Digital currency gets stolen by hackers? I bet no one saw that one coming.

Now the question is how many of the hackers are inside the house.

 

[bbdude]

http://www.thestar.com/business/201...ptcy_finance_minister_says_i_told_you_so.html

Well, that's that for Mt. Gox officially now. 800,000 BTC unaccounted for.

In other words, around 6.4% of all bitcoins now in the hands of thieves.

welp

 

[empty vessel]

In other words, around 6.4% of all bitcoins now in the hands of thieves.

welp

It's not clear. Could be just gone forever.

 

[massoluk]

Japan finance minister is rather undiplomatic about this

 

[Osiris]

Hard not to put 2 + 2 together here and get a 4.

If the losses really are as great as the reports claim, I fear this won't be the only case of MTGox related suicide.

 

[cool_dude]

Seriously. I can buy just about anything I want to with fiat currency in thirty seconds using Amazon. I have Prime so it'll probably be here tomorrow. How, exactly, are bitcoins more efficient or quicker than that? I honestly don't see how that's possible.

Just bought a watch display box on Overstock.com in twenty seconds and it'll get here tomorrow. With bitcoins. No need to enter any account numbers, just captured a QR code for payment. Boom.

 

[GaimeGuy]

 

[Damaniel]

Just bought a watch display box on Overstock.com in twenty seconds and it'll get here tomorrow. With bitcoins. No need to enter any account numbers, just captured a QR code for payment. Boom.

So buying with bitcoin is moderately convenient at exactly one major online retailer (if you can consider Overstock a 'major' retailer). I tend to buy most things at Amazon, and when I don't, it's because another online store has the item significantly cheaper. Given the choice between using my evil, fiat-backed credit card at 99.99999% of online retailers, or using Bitcoin at one retailer, I know which is more convenient for most people.

(And Overstock wouldn't even be taking them if their CEO wasn't a libertarian. We'll see how long that lasts when those high flying, $600 Bitcoins drop to $50, and shareholders start grumbling.)

 

[Trouble]

Ice cold

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

I've had Bitcoins explained to me 100 times and I still don't get it.

It's like the Wonderful 101 of currency.

 

[Shake Appeal]

Why would anyone sane keep bitcoins in the Magic the Gathering Online Exchange given their long and woeful record of crashes and other problems.

 

[kick51]

Why would anyone sane keep bitcoins in the Magic the Gathering Online Exchange given their long and woeful record of crashes and other problems.

They had a higher than average valuation of btc there and people would buy cheap elsewhere, then try to cash out there. but there hasn't been a day since I started paying attention to BTC where someone wasn't complaining about having a difficult time with Gox liquidity problems, so I stayed the hell out of there.

also, it was poor management + sketchiness that brought them down. Your exchange could be called "Free Brony Porn Here" and be a good exchange. It was probably the founder's goofy idea to keep the Magic The Gathering name.

 

[cool_dude]

So buying with bitcoin is moderately convenient at exactly one major online retailer (if you can consider Overstock a 'major' retailer). I tend to buy most things at Amazon, and when I don't, it's because another online store has the item significantly cheaper. Given the choice between using my evil, fiat-backed credit card at 99.99999% of online retailers, or using Bitcoin at one retailer, I know which is more convenient for most people.

(And Overstock wouldn't even be taking them if their CEO wasn't a libertarian. We'll see how long that lasts when those high flying, $600 Bitcoins drop to $50, and shareholders start grumbling.)

It's a start. I agree Amazon is cheaper and better than Overstock and I hope Amazon will allow bitcoin someday (you can already buy Amazon gift cards with bitcoin for 3% off).

Bitcoin microtransactions are going to take off. Many people still don't have bank accounts or credit cards for whatever reason, but if they want to watch a show on Netflix, they could just use bitcoin without creating an account with personal information, etc. The utility of bitcoin is endless.

The technology is sound and although bitcoin is still in its infancy, it will grow fairly exponentially. I went to a bitcoin meeting in San Francisco earlier this week and most people were sad/mad at Mt. Gox but the mood was very uplifting, especially in light of exciting startups around the corner. Also, look at Neo and Bee for how they plan to bring it to the masses: http://www.neo-bee.com/en/

Should be an interesting year for bitcoin and I'm onboard the roller coaster.

 

[empty vessel]

So buying with bitcoin is moderately convenient at exactly one major online retailer (if you can consider Overstock a 'major' retailer). I tend to buy most things at Amazon, and when I don't, it's because another online store has the item significantly cheaper. Given the choice between using my evil, fiat-backed credit card at 99.99999% of online retailers, or using Bitcoin at one retailer, I know which is more convenient for most people.

It's not that convenient because you have to buy the bitcoins (and pay a fee) first.

 

[pigeon]

Just bought a watch display box on Overstock.com in twenty seconds and it'll get here tomorrow. With bitcoins. No need to enter any account numbers, just captured a QR code for payment. Boom.

This post baffles me.

Even if we assume that capturing a QR code is easier than entering a credit card number (it's not), and even if we ignore the fact that the last time I entered a credit card number on Amazon was literally years ago, and even if we skip past however much time and effort was invested in transferring the fiat currency you had to bitcoin in the first place, and even if we just gloss over the whole discussion earlier about how specific companies are going to try to capture margin by accepting bitcoins and immediately dumping them to cash, but that this doesn't make them a currency in any meaningful sense, you maybe saved five seconds.

I'm typing this on my laptop while pooping at the same time, so at this point I've already saved way more in utility just by being slightly disgusting than you ever will using bitcoin.

 

[putarorex]

They had the press conference on the news a lot yesterday in Japan. The CEO looks like a Dungeon Master more than a CEO. It doesn't help that he seemed to be smirking through the whole thing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeuCuM9CkBc

 

[Stinkles]

It's not that convenient because you have to buy the bitcoins (and pay a fee) first.

And you have to convert them as if it's a foreign currency. You don't know how many bitcoins or fraction thereof, you're spending until the moment the transaction is clear. Whereas the dollar, pound, or franc value will probably be stable for months as it relates to the cost of the item and the relationship between that cost and the currency's value.

 

[caderyn]

well well.. thank god I did buy in...

 

[Guileless]

William Gibson couldn't have dreamed this shit up. Hackers stealing 450mil worth of crypto currency from a fucking Magic the Gathering site.

 

[Stet]

This whole thing is a forecaster's nightmare. 7% of the total bitcoins in circulation just disappeared. Does that make the value of BTC higher because of scarcity or lower because of low confidence?

 

[Makai]

I read that there's no evidence that MtGOX ever actually operated as a trading card site. I've checked the Wayback Machine and it's just an under construction page for years. If it never was used to trade Magic cards, why the hell does it have that name?

 

[PetriP-TNT]

Yesterdays news but

Flexcoin is shutting down. (March 3 2014)

On March 2nd 2014 Flexcoin was attacked and robbed of all coins in the hot wallet. The attacker made off with 896 BTC, dividing them into these two addresses:

1NDkevapt4SWYFEmquCDBSf7DLMTNVggdu

1QFcC5JitGwpFKqRDd9QNH3eGN56dCNgy6

As Flexcoin does not have the resources, assets, or otherwise to come back from this loss, we are closing our doors immediately.
Users who put their coins into cold storage will be contacted by Flexcoin and asked to verify their identity. Once identified, cold storage coins will be transferred out free of charge. Cold storage coins were held offline and not within reach of the attacker. All other users will be directed to Flexcoin's "Terms of service" located at "Flexcoin.com/118.html" a document which was agreed on, upon signing up with Flexcoin.

Flexcoin will attempt to work with law enforcement to trace the source of the hack.

Updates will be posted on twitter as soon as they become available.
Update (March 4 2014)

During the investigation into stolen funds we have determined that the extent of the theft was enabled by a flaw within the front-end.

The attacker logged into the flexcoin front end from IP address 207.12.89.117 under a newly created username and deposited to address 1DSD3B3uS2wGZjZAwa2dqQ7M9v7Ajw2iLy

The coins were then left to sit until they had reached 6 confirmations.

The attacker then successfully exploited a flaw in the code which allows transfers between flexcoin users. By sending thousands of simultaneous requests, the attacker was able to "move" coins from one user account to another until the sending account was overdrawn, before balances were updated.

This was then repeated through multiple accounts, snowballing the amount, until the attacker withdrew the coins. (Here and Here)

Flexcoin has made every attempt to keep our servers as secure as possible, including regular testing. In our ~3 years of existence we have successfully repelled thousands of attacks. But in the end, this was simply not enough.

Having this be the demise of our small company, after the endless hours of work we've put in, was never our intent. We've failed our customers, our business, and ultimatley the Bitcoin community.

Please direct any and all questions to admin(at)flexcoin(dot)com and we will reply to you as soon as possible.

Another one bites the dust, my cryptocurrancies

 

[Foaloal]

Yesterdays news

Wow. It's crazy to think all the guy had to do was basically thousands of transactions really really quick so that the servers didn't have time to update his balance or whatever.

I've been jealous of the guys who got into bitcoin when the going was good, especially since I was right there reading the threads about it, but things like this make me feel a little bit better about my decision not to get involved.

Sucks to be anyone who got affected though, especially if their bitcoins are an important part of their finances.

 

[x3sphere]

Never heard of Flexcoin, why would you store your money in a 'Bitcoin bank' anyway? It's one thing to keep them on an exchange if you are trading daily, but that's not the case here. I just don't understand some people...

 

[bodyboarder]

Never heard of Flexcoin, why would you store your money in a 'Bitcoin bank' anyway? It's one thing to keep them on an exchange if you are trading daily, but that's not the case here. I just don't understand some people...

People still trust "banks".