Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
I dont know about persona either. Im just saying you need consoles in peoples hands to sell software.
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Bomb/Hit predictions for this Fall
- Thread starter Barack Lesnar
- Start date
eighty(one)
Member
They will be hits, considering the install base. If they sell equivalent to the amount of vita owners and then some, they're successful sellers.
That's not being naive, but reality.
I wonder how much effort Acti is even putting into CoD, considering we still know basically jackshit about it.
I suspect both Playstation All Stars and DoA5 are going to bomb.
Playstation All Stars lacks top grade 3rd party characters to get attention for the game.
DoA's past sales are a product of Microsoft's considerable marketing muscle. The loss of that muscle isn't going to be offset by the PS3 userbase.
Playstation All Stars lacks top grade 3rd party characters to get attention for the game.
DoA's past sales are a product of Microsoft's considerable marketing muscle. The loss of that muscle isn't going to be offset by the PS3 userbase.
jono51
Banned
Darksiders II - first month bomb, does moderately well at lower price
Sleeping Dogs - bomb, picks up a little a while down the line.
Transformers Fall of Cybertron - bomb
Guild Wars 2 - 1m first month/3m post christmas assuming solid launch. Hit.
Tekken Tag Tournament 2 - Fairly successful.
Borderlands 2 - Hit. 1.5m first month.
Dead or Alive 5 - bigger bomb than NG3.
Dishonored - bomb. Word of mouth caries it at lower price point.
X-COM Enemy Unknown - success on pc, bomb on consoles.
007 Legends - activision won't tell anyone this exists. big bomb.
Playstation All Stars Battle Royale - moderate hit assuming sony decide to do some marketing. Otherwise bomb.
Hitman Absolution - Hit.
Far Cry 3 - Hit
ZombiU - bomb.
AC vita - bomb
CoD vita - bomb
Sleeping Dogs - bomb, picks up a little a while down the line.
Transformers Fall of Cybertron - bomb
Guild Wars 2 - 1m first month/3m post christmas assuming solid launch. Hit.
Tekken Tag Tournament 2 - Fairly successful.
Borderlands 2 - Hit. 1.5m first month.
Dead or Alive 5 - bigger bomb than NG3.
Dishonored - bomb. Word of mouth caries it at lower price point.
X-COM Enemy Unknown - success on pc, bomb on consoles.
007 Legends - activision won't tell anyone this exists. big bomb.
Playstation All Stars Battle Royale - moderate hit assuming sony decide to do some marketing. Otherwise bomb.
Hitman Absolution - Hit.
Far Cry 3 - Hit
ZombiU - bomb.
AC vita - bomb
CoD vita - bomb
Barack Lesnar
Banned
If AC and COD Vita bomb the Vita is pretty much done for. It's already knocking on death's door and if it doesn't sell well this holiday it's done. I feel like this is a make or break season for the Vita in the U.S.
Mario Bros=Hit and system seller.
Luigi's Mansion=1 million lifetime sales, will do alright during holidays.
Ass Creed 3= Hit and 10-11 million lifetime sales.
Pikmin 3=Will do better than expected. Pikmin has been building good word of mouth. Decent holiday and about 2-3 million llifetime sales.
Luigi's Mansion=1 million lifetime sales, will do alright during holidays.
Ass Creed 3= Hit and 10-11 million lifetime sales.
Pikmin 3=Will do better than expected. Pikmin has been building good word of mouth. Decent holiday and about 2-3 million llifetime sales.
Well some Sony fans talk about those two games to be the second coming and that they will save the Vita. So taking that into consideration, then yes, they will be the biggest bombs this holiday season.
Conciliator
Banned
Borderlands 2 will be great and gigantic.
Dishonered will be great and fall flat on its face.
I think Darksiders II will do better than expected(cuz it has a number on the end).
Dishonered will be great and fall flat on its face.
I think Darksiders II will do better than expected(cuz it has a number on the end).
Messofanego
Banned
Dishonored just like Deus Ex HR will be a slow burner, will have similar lifetime sales of 2 million.
GravityMan
Member
Hits that meet or exceed expectations:
Assassin's Creed III
Halo 4
Borderlands 2
Underwhelming hits:
Resident Evil 6
Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 (it'll still sell many millions but significantly less than MW3, Black Ops, and MW2)
Every other game will perform mediocre or poorly commercially.
Many people are getting weary of this generation.
Assassin's Creed III
Halo 4
Borderlands 2
Underwhelming hits:
Resident Evil 6
Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 (it'll still sell many millions but significantly less than MW3, Black Ops, and MW2)
Every other game will perform mediocre or poorly commercially.
Many people are getting weary of this generation.
nhlducks35
Member
Haven't preorders exceeded every other COD?
Black Ops 2 has more preorders than any of those (in the same timeframe).
paperboywriter
Member
dishonoured will be a hit. get bioshock vibes from this one.
Jasper Avenue
Member
I actually think Halo 4, Borderlands 2, Guild Wars 2, and Black Ops 2 will be the giant hits of this winter. I can't see anything else coming close to the numbers these 4 games will put up.
A handfull of games this holiday season will sell much more than Guild Wars 2 and Borderlands 2.
People will keep thinking CoD will go down the next year and are always wrong. Give it six years or so and they'll finally be right!
Yes, I think activision said preorders are 1.5xmw3 and 10xblackops
PaineReign
Neo Member
I don't think I am being naive, but I guess I am exaggerating how good Dishonored could be.
To bring the comparison down to the most cut and dry metric: Metacritic. (I know its stupid, pointless, and whatever other adjectives you want to throw around, but it does serve its purpose as a simple review aggregation site and, apart from the sites that don't use a numeric score (1up specifically) is a decent way to tally reactions)
If Dishonored is an amazing game that is reviewed fantastically well, lets say it gets a 90 or higher on Metacritic, I think it will sell very well.
I don't see any games on Metacritic with above a 90 that, as far as I know, sold lower than what they "should have" (the size of their niche market, plus the people that will hop onto a particular game if they see it is reviewed well). If you can point out a flop that was reviewed above a 90, hell, an 85 point it out.
On the contrary, if you look at abysmally low Metaciritc scores, very, very few of those games sell at all, except to the uninformed consumer. If Steel Batallion had a huge marketing budget, based on all the negative reviews of the game, I still don't think it would have sold well.
Another example: Red Faction: Armageddon. Guerrilla was very well received and sold, as far as I can tell, very well. There was a lot of hype for the sequel, but it got poor reviews and sold poorly. That game could not have gone into a better market, but it was, according to most critics, a bad game.
That was the only point I was making. Very well reviewed games get much better sales than very poorly reviewed games.
Anticitizen One
Banned
Resident Evil 6
No...something tells me that if it's successful it will be on all platforms.
Kuro Madoushi
Unconfirmed Member
No faith in Sleeping Dogs... 
I got my copy preordered.
I got my copy preordered.
Daydream Sequence
Banned
Halo 4 and Borderlands 2 are pretty much the only 2 games I can guarantee will sell well.
DanielJr82
Member
I really hope Sleeping Dogs pulls through. I'm buying it, anyways.
Messofanego
Banned
God, if Dishonored ended up with a 90 Metacritic, I would cry happy. One can dream for such critical success for original IP, new developer game with moderate marketing.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Today I learned Neogaf hates games and want most to fail. Some here seem to enjoy the prospect of games failing.
The only games that I want to fail seem to be the ones that are guaranteed to sell 5 million minimum. Life is cruel like that.
Chairman Yang
if he talks about books, you better damn well listen
Why do you think so?
I'm just going to list how I expect the games to satisfy my demands. I don't really care what the rest of the gaming populace feels about these. I've had a huge disconnect between what I value and what the masses valued and that gap exponentially increased at the start of this current gen.
Darksiders II (August 14) - Most likely gonna pass
Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - Never heard of it
Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - Not interested
Guild Wars 2 (August 28) - Probably will buy this at some point. I think it can be pretty fun
Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - I loved the first one. I will wait and see on this one.
Borderlands 2 (September 18) - I beat the first game (which is very rare for me) despite despising some aspects of it. Claptrap was never funny. The itemization was some of the worst. I think this game will improve on the latter and double down on the former. I think it will be a little too crazy, at times, but I suspect that it will be a fun multiplayer game.
Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - Couldn't care less
Dishonored (October 9) - I hope this game is good. It looks right up my alley
X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - I will buy this game, I will play this game, I will suck at this game.
007 Legends (October 16) - Never heard of it
Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - I'll probably play this for a few matches before everyone reverts back to playing Super Smash Bros.
Hitman Absolution (November 20) - I am not really a hitman fan, despite loving the premise of the past games.
Far Cry 3 (December 4) - Skipping.
ZombiU (November?) - Won't be able to play a game for a system that I will likely not own.
Darksiders II (August 14) - Most likely gonna pass
Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - Never heard of it
Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - Not interested
Guild Wars 2 (August 28) - Probably will buy this at some point. I think it can be pretty fun
Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - I loved the first one. I will wait and see on this one.
Borderlands 2 (September 18) - I beat the first game (which is very rare for me) despite despising some aspects of it. Claptrap was never funny. The itemization was some of the worst. I think this game will improve on the latter and double down on the former. I think it will be a little too crazy, at times, but I suspect that it will be a fun multiplayer game.
Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - Couldn't care less
Dishonored (October 9) - I hope this game is good. It looks right up my alley
X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - I will buy this game, I will play this game, I will suck at this game.
007 Legends (October 16) - Never heard of it
Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - I'll probably play this for a few matches before everyone reverts back to playing Super Smash Bros.
Hitman Absolution (November 20) - I am not really a hitman fan, despite loving the premise of the past games.
Far Cry 3 (December 4) - Skipping.
ZombiU (November?) - Won't be able to play a game for a system that I will likely not own.
DanielJr82
Member
Doesn't it get on your nerves? >_<
MidnightScott
Banned
I don't understand how companies can survive if all their games seem to bomb
*waits for Yakuza HD Collection & 5 announcement*
I'll post my predictions later since I'm still at work typing on an iPhone.
*waits for Yakuza HD Collection & 5 announcement*
I'll post my predictions later since I'm still at work typing on an iPhone.
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
hahahaha I can't breathe.
I H8 Memes
Member
Entire lineup: Bomb, not one of these will satisfy NA execs / shareholders / the ravening hordes of the NPD thread.
It will later be revealed that GW2 and TTT2 were profitable, met or exceeded expectations, and will be widely played and enjoyed for a few years.
Wild card: Sleeping Dogs could've done something if there had been, like, any promotion at all. If there's some big last-minute campaign, it might catch on to the same level as those two.
It will later be revealed that GW2 and TTT2 were profitable, met or exceeded expectations, and will be widely played and enjoyed for a few years.
Wild card: Sleeping Dogs could've done something if there had been, like, any promotion at all. If there's some big last-minute campaign, it might catch on to the same level as those two.
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
I'm expecting 40k for persona 4 the golden
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
Sony fans?
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
Hahaha I agree
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
Guild wars 2=hit
Turn based hardcore* strategy game. It also comes out in an overcrowded period so many of the eventual few curious people, will buy something else.
* by hardcore I mean that I don't see in it any big element of appeal to the people outside the minority who already like this kind of game.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
I don't want any of em to fail, just being honest about which i think will bomb and which could be hits.
Doctor Decimate
Member
Darksiders II (August 14) - this will do pretty well. promotion for it is huge, the first game surprised us, etc. didn't they run out of Limited Editions? and in what parallel universe did DXHR bomb lol
Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - has the potential to surprise us, but i don't think it will
Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - it's Transformers
Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - fighting fans are hyping this like hell, and the first Tekken Tag remains well-liked to this day. it'll do some good numbers.
Borderlands 2 (September 18) - this is going to be the best-selling game of the year that isn't named call of duty
Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - not sure how much pull this game has, especially with Itagaki gone
Dishonored (October 9) - it'll do well on PC from the get-go, and sales will pick up once it gets the awesome reviews you know it will
X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - big PC seller, though i don't see this doing well on consoles at all no matter what the word of mouth is
Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - not sure how well it'll do on its own, but i doubt it'll touch other fighters and the sales won't be a fraction of Smash Bros.
Hitman Absolution (November 20) - i'm really not sure. probably close to DXHR
Far Cry 3 (December 4) - Far Cry is definitely the odd duck in a few months full of big name titles. this isn't the franchise ubisoft thinks it is.
ZombiU (November?) - it's a zombie game, and Red Steel did well. this looks like it's in a similar position as the premiere third party title for the Wii U
Sleeping Dogs (August 14) - has the potential to surprise us, but i don't think it will
Transformers Fall of Cybertron (August 21) - it's Transformers
Tekken Tag Tournament 2 (September 11) - fighting fans are hyping this like hell, and the first Tekken Tag remains well-liked to this day. it'll do some good numbers.
Borderlands 2 (September 18) - this is going to be the best-selling game of the year that isn't named call of duty
Dead or Alive 5 (September 25) - not sure how much pull this game has, especially with Itagaki gone
Dishonored (October 9) - it'll do well on PC from the get-go, and sales will pick up once it gets the awesome reviews you know it will
X-COM Enemy Unknown (October 9) - big PC seller, though i don't see this doing well on consoles at all no matter what the word of mouth is
Playstation All Stars Battle Royale (October 23) - not sure how well it'll do on its own, but i doubt it'll touch other fighters and the sales won't be a fraction of Smash Bros.
Hitman Absolution (November 20) - i'm really not sure. probably close to DXHR
Far Cry 3 (December 4) - Far Cry is definitely the odd duck in a few months full of big name titles. this isn't the franchise ubisoft thinks it is.
ZombiU (November?) - it's a zombie game, and Red Steel did well. this looks like it's in a similar position as the premiere third party title for the Wii U
Shit, I ain't complaining. If this game is any good i'll double dip xbox+pc, and I'd consider triple-dipping on Vita if it's ever ported.
And if they dare to add cross platform saves, then fuck me I'd have to buy the ps3 version too.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Forgot cod lol
Baron_Calamity
Member
I predict that most titles will be disappointments in terms of sales this holiday season. Retail console gaming is over for this generation with the main stream. Gamers will still buy games, but that market isn't even half as big as the market that mainstream interest brings. The main stream already has enough games for this generation of consoles and they might watch movies and media on them. Also a large number of consoles the main stream market have are either broken, collecting dust, or are only turned on when the new madden or call of duty comes out. Assuming they even do that this year. PC digital game sales will surge but not enough to make up for the loss sales on titles ported from consoles.
I also predict console unit sales will take a beating from tablet sales as good 7inch tablets start selling in the sub $300 range. (Kindle fire 2, Nexis 7, iPod Touch XL/iPad mini)
***** All predictions are null and void if a PS3 or a 360 starts selling at $99-$130 out the door with no gimmicks.
I also predict console unit sales will take a beating from tablet sales as good 7inch tablets start selling in the sub $300 range. (Kindle fire 2, Nexis 7, iPod Touch XL/iPad mini)
***** All predictions are null and void if a PS3 or a 360 starts selling at $99-$130 out the door with no gimmicks.
ClivePwned
Member
Bomba (At least relative to expectations)
Playstation Allstars (The stars are a bit less iconic compared to what you'd see in SSB)
Dishonoured (Bethesda seem to struggle outside of marketing Elder Scrolls games ATM)
Transformers
MoH:Warfighter will do OK but probably less than the last MoH game
Far Cry 3: I feel FC2 will have put most people off FC3
Darksiders- Don't think enough people care. Would be goof for THQ if they did.
007 Legends- Not n64 Goldeneye
anything on Vita (that's not trolling, just my view)
Middle
Luigi will do OK.
Sleeping Dogs coming when there aren't any other major open world games for those guys who like to tool around in a big map.
Xcom- might do OK for those who really want to play it but it won't be huge numbers. If 2K are expecting mega millions they are probably going to lose big time.
Skylanders: If this turns to a toy fad too quickly (and kid's are even more fickle than older gamers) there's going to be a ton of this shit in the bargain bins come February.
Hits (Assuming the games don't flat out suck)
ACIII- might be a bigger hit that most people are expecting
CoD Blops 2. Might see a fall overall but will probably do so extremly well no one at Activision will complain
Halo 4 will be big, not CoD or WoW or even ACIII big but still very big. November might have been a mistake though
WoW: MoP. It's WoW in a year where there aren't any other big RPG's
Borderlands will be a reasonable sized hit, bigger than the first but not ridiculously so.
Mario Wii U
I think Zombie U will be a decent sized hit if only as a "what has this thing got?" hit like Red Steel
NSMB 2: This thing will have legs for years, maybe not as much as the DS game but its a 2D Mario platformer and they always sell bigger than fan reaction would tell you
Playstation Allstars (The stars are a bit less iconic compared to what you'd see in SSB)
Dishonoured (Bethesda seem to struggle outside of marketing Elder Scrolls games ATM)
Transformers
MoH:Warfighter will do OK but probably less than the last MoH game
Far Cry 3: I feel FC2 will have put most people off FC3
Darksiders- Don't think enough people care. Would be goof for THQ if they did.
007 Legends- Not n64 Goldeneye
anything on Vita (that's not trolling, just my view)
Middle
Luigi will do OK.
Sleeping Dogs coming when there aren't any other major open world games for those guys who like to tool around in a big map.
Xcom- might do OK for those who really want to play it but it won't be huge numbers. If 2K are expecting mega millions they are probably going to lose big time.
Skylanders: If this turns to a toy fad too quickly (and kid's are even more fickle than older gamers) there's going to be a ton of this shit in the bargain bins come February.
Hits (Assuming the games don't flat out suck)
ACIII- might be a bigger hit that most people are expecting
CoD Blops 2. Might see a fall overall but will probably do so extremly well no one at Activision will complain
Halo 4 will be big, not CoD or WoW or even ACIII big but still very big. November might have been a mistake though
WoW: MoP. It's WoW in a year where there aren't any other big RPG's
Borderlands will be a reasonable sized hit, bigger than the first but not ridiculously so.
Mario Wii U
I think Zombie U will be a decent sized hit if only as a "what has this thing got?" hit like Red Steel
NSMB 2: This thing will have legs for years, maybe not as much as the DS game but its a 2D Mario platformer and they always sell bigger than fan reaction would tell you