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Could Captain America: Civil War make more money than Age of Ultron?

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M

MutonCommander

Banned
What are the chances of the third Captain America movie outgrossing Age of Ultron Worldwide? AOU made a bit more than 1.4 billion dollars while the Winter Soldier made about 714 million dollars. Now obviously that is a huge gap, but there are some things working in Civil War's favor.

- RDJ is in it, that automatically gives the movie a significant boost.
- Captain America is very popular nowadays.
- the movie is coming after the critically acclaimed and generally fantastic Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
- The movie also has most of the other Avengers.
- The movie will introduce Black Panther.
- FREAKING SPIDER-MAN IS MAKING HIS MCU DEBUT.

With all that in mind, I feel it is likely that this movie will be an enormous hit and it might surpass Age of Ultron's worldwide gross. What do you think?
 
B

Broken Joystick

At least you can talk. Who are you?
I think Spider-Man will be a huge draw, but depends on how they market the film and if they decide to show him off a lot.

I certainly think it has the potential to do so.
 
S

Scorpion Soldier

Member
I'm expecting Iron Man 3 numbers atm.

Winter Soldier saw a significant increase over the first one and made over $700 million, but with RDJ, the reception of Winter Soldier and the included characters I'm putting my bets at $1.2 - $1.3 billion atm. I wouldn't say Avengers numbers are out of the question though, but for now I'll stick with a similar performance to IM3.
 
G

glow

Banned
If it was called Marvel: Civil War maybe. The bulletpoints in the OP are mostly things no casual movie-goer cares about...
 
R

Rockandrollclown

lookwhatyou'vedone
I'm thinking no. I think its about time that we start to see diminishing returns on superhero movies. Also, AoU probably hurts this movie pretty badly.
 
P

Penguin

Member
I don't think so

I feel like many of those things aren't "new" draws with Iron Man and Cap and a bunch already sharing movies in The Avengers

I think also lacking the Avengers brand will keep some folks from seeing it right away

Spider-man's stock in movies recently has been on a downward trajectory.

And can't really say much about Panther's mainstream appeal

I do think it will do better than The Winter Soldier, but closer/more inline with Iron Man 3 than an Avengers film.
 
M

Matsukaze

Member
I think it can surpass AoU. Spider-Man is going to give the film a huge push even if his screen-time is limited, and even though Black Panther isn't as immediately recognizable to the average non-comics fan, I feel like he's generated a pretty good level of interest from the movies-only crowd.
 
Duane Cunningham

Duane Cunningham

Member
Maybe. I mean, in addition to everything you listed, I think the premise "Captain America VERSUS Iron Man!!" is probably more compelling for most audiences than "a robot goes crazy and fights the Avengers".
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
Honestly, yeah. I think a lot of the BO gross will come from the goodwill that Winter Soldier earned. That and when they inevitably start putting Spidey in the ads.
 
P

platakul

Banned
Rockandrollclown said:
I'm thinking no. I think its about time that we start to see diminishing returns on superhero movies. Also, AoU probably hurts this movie pretty badly.
Click to expand...

I agree that AoU kind of diminished the hype of the MCU (even as it made a bunch of cash). But I think Civil War will be an interesting test in how much a title matters
Like would it make more money if it was named Avengers 3, but was the exact same movie.
 
I

icespide

Banned
Penguin said:
I don't think so

I feel like many of those things aren't "new" draws with Iron Man and Cap and a bunch already sharing movies in The Avengers

I think also lacking the Avengers brand will keep some folks from seeing it right away

Spider-man's stock in movies recently has been on a downward trajectory.

And can't really say much about Panther's mainstream appeal

I do think it will do better than The Winter Soldier, but closer/more inline with Iron Man 3 than an Avengers film.
Click to expand...

I think the idea of Spider-man coming back home to marvel will be a big push for spider-man's movie stock but I have a spider-man avatar so fuck me right?
 
O

OnPoint

Member
MutonCommander said:
- RDJ is in it, that automatically gives the movie a significant boost.
- Captain America is very popular nowadays.
- the movie is coming after the critically acclaimed and generally fantastic Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
- The movie also has most of the other Avengers.
- The movie will introduce Black Panther.
- FREAKING SPIDER-MAN IS MAKING HIS MCU DEBUT.
Click to expand...

All of the bolded applied to AoU too. And it was a stinker.

That said, this is the movie Avengers 2 probably should have been. AoU should have come at a different time. Plus it wasn't very good.

To answer your question, I feel like this could do better, if they put the marketing behind it.
 
S

Sulik2

Member
Its basically an Avengers movie with Spider-Man in it and despite making a ton of money Ultron underperformed. I think there is a good chance its bigger then Ultron since it looks to be a better movie.
 
R

Rockandrollclown

lookwhatyou'vedone
Scorpion Soldier said:
If Thor: The Dark World can't hurt the Marvel brand, Age of Ultron certainly won't.
Click to expand...

Thor doesn't really carry the Avengers movies. Cap/Iron Man carry them, and coming off AoU, I don't see a Cap/Iron Man movie doing better. If it turns out to be awesome, maybe Civil War 2 outdoes AoU.

Edit: Also, I really do feel like comic book movie fatigue is coming, might even already be here. Civil War will be what the 3rd or 4th superhero movie of the year already?
 
V

Violence Jack

Member
I think so. Spider-man alone already ensured a huge box office. Combine that with a movie that's sounding like Avengers 3, it has the chance to be the highest grossing film of the year or just under Rogue One.
 
X

Xamtheking

Member
Rockandrollclown said:
Thor doesn't really carry the Avengers movies. Cap/Iron Man carry them, and coming off AoU, I don't see a Cap/Iron Man movie doing better. If it turns out to be awesome, maybe Civil War 2 outdoes AoU.
Click to expand...
You mean Hawkeye and his witty quips
(Marvel, please either drop the humor, or just make Hawkeye literally comic relief)
 
C

Can Crusher

Banned
Probably.

Trailers and campaign marketing overall will be more enticing, due to the premise itself. It's going to have Spiderman.... and if reviews are as good as Winter Soldier, then it's a shoe in.
 
N

NotLiquid

Member
It's hard to say how important of a pull Spider-Man really is for this movie since his own movie franchise has had a downward slope ever since Spider-Man 3 peaked.

At this point the only real thing that can bolster interest for him is if the audience really does care for his inclusion in the MCU and Avengers but him alone isn't a guarantee for success when his relevancy in comparison to the other blockbuster giants are diminished. That and there's the question of whether or not he'll even be at the forefront of the marketing because Marvel has been incredibly hush about him - most likely because they want to keep him a Vision-level audience surprise.
 
P

Pein

Banned
spiderman and ironman are gonna push those numbers, not more than avengers but I say a bit better than ironman 3
 
A

Anung

Un Rama
I think so. TWS is considered by many to be one of (if not) the best movie of the movie universe. A sequel to that coupled with RDJ star power and freakin' Spider-man should easily get it over that billion dollar line.
 
J

jackdoe

Member
I'm honestly not sure why they didn't title the move "Avengers: Civil War" for the sake of the international market. It's going to be called "First Avenger: Civil War" in some markets, so why not go all the way and ride the Avengers train?
 
T

torre_avenue

Banned
It very likely could considering how well Captain America has connected with mainstream audiences something that only Thor can't say. Ultron made 1.4 billion as its final total, and I think it is very possible Cap 3 could surpass it but not by a huge margin. It'll probably do 1.45 billion, well enough to beat Avengers 2 but not good enough to beat Avengers 1.
 
E

Einchy

semen stains the mountaintops
After Winter Soldier and this pretty much being an Avengers movie with Spider-man in it, I'd be surprised if it wasn't their highest earning movie to date.
 
B

broncobuster

Banned
I question how big Iron Man vs Captain America is, coming off how Iron Man vs Hulk got pushed last time. But can't discount the popularity of the Civil War comic event. And Spider-Man
 
C

Cipherr

Member
No. Its not an avengers movie no matter how big the ensemble is. Its not named Avengers; it's not going to get the massive overseas numbers nor the domestic numbers that an official Avengers film would bring.
 
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