Gentleman Jack
Member
Fewer movies. Less Money.
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Deadline: Analysts project that movie studio profits are in for a rough 2017
- Thread starter kswiston
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Saucycarpdog
Member
It's hilarious that Disney has the smallest slate of all the studios for this year but is guaranteed to make the most money.
I should point out that I also didn't include any releases from Jan-Mar 10th. Universal has released 5 films already, Lionsgate has released 5, Warner Bros has released 3, Fox has released 2, Paramount has released 3, and Sony has released 4.
Beauty and the Beast this weekend is the first Disney film of the year.
EDIT: I added that info to the OP
DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
There was a leaked trailer back in December or so. I'm not sure why it hasn't been officially released. I remember the first trailer for Ghostbusters coming out only a few months from the premiere date last year and that was also a Sony production.
I think a Wizard and Glass miniseries is in the cards, but I don't see it happening when the first movie fails.
Frozenprince
Banned
Yep, just like every other year. Warner might struggle a bit but should be alright, Disney as always will eat, as will Fox.
You nailed it with the bolded...outside of Fast, Transformers and a few others, the Home Runs are all Disney (marvel, star wars, Pixar, classics redone, etc)
Definitely home run derby. Disney's success can't be denied so everyone's going to want a piece of that pie. It's probably going to be a terrible idea for most of the studios, but putting money on bad ideas is an essential part of Hollywood!
It's weird, since that's a sector that Disney specifically gave up on with their current path. They sold off Miramax ages ago, Hollywood Pictures and Touchstone have been dead for quite some time now, and they let their distribution deal with DreamWorks go out on a whimper with the one-two punch of The BFG and The Light Between Oceans.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
One would hope studios would look at Split, Get Out, and Logan (which yes, cost far more than the other two, but still far less than other blockbusters) and realize that not all the money is in expensive tent poles, but I get the feeling trying to emulate Disney will be a thing, which is a fool's errand if there ever was one.
If Fox is smart they'll look at the successes of Logan and Deadpool, the disappointment of Appocalypse, and the failure of ID4-2 and realize that a lot of conventional Hollywood wisdom is garbage, but I could see a successful Avatar sequel (if it ever fucking releases, lol) wiping out any lessons they may have learned. Plus they still apparently want X-Men to be their own MCU. We'll see how that goes.
Universal should be looking hard at what the Blumhouse deal is doing for them but I think 2015 set unrealistic expectations for them which will hurt them going forwards. 50 Shades already dropped significantly and Fate and JW2 ain't matching their predecessors, regardless of quality.
Warner is going to go the hardest at emulating Disney, and to be fair they definitely will come close to succeeding, but hopefully they won't lose sight of their own strengths in the mad push to match Marvel and milk their relationship with JK Rowling.
Hey movie studios, Sept - November normally only get one or two movies in terms of tent pole releases, maybe try releasing more big movies in that giant gap instead of cramming everything into the summer and chopping each other's legs off. You've already expanded to March and some into Feb. These are the big three months that still seem oddly empty most years. Although Disney did Strange and Moana in this window last year, they are smart.
BronsonLee
Member
I only bump dumb movies!
Ya I dunno how Sony is still around and Paramount keeps fucking with Cruise on MI so hmm
Hari Seldon
Member
TV has killed movies completely. If you are not a comic book fan or a kid there is literally no reason to even rent movies anymore. I will see Star Wars and Dunkirk in 2017 and that is it. Won't even rent anything lol.
Release all your shit in Jan and Feb!
Well John Wick 2, Get Out, Split, Kong, Logan, Lego Batman have all done good.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
I mean, even if the numbers are down, not everyone has as narrow tastes/views as you apparently do. There's still plenty out there beyond what you've described.
ZackieChan
Member
Those numbers most likely don't include marketing spend, either. So they're even more bomb-ish.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
Sure thing.
It probably isn't a huge dent yet, but half of my work colleagues (even the less tech savvy ones) are just stealing all their shit with Android tv boxes. It seems they've made the entry barrier much easier than torrenting. They have the gall to say "Why do you even go to the theatres? Ha ha". My response is usually, "So I can support filmmakers. I also don't like shit quality with forced subtitles."
faceless007
Member
If William Goldman were still actively working in the industry I would love to read the book he could write about the last decade. It's like everything he described in The Big Picture and Which Lie Did I Tell? amplified a thousandfold.
(If you don't know who I'm talking about look him up and read those books, they're hilarious.)
(If you don't know who I'm talking about look him up and read those books, they're hilarious.)
brianjones
Member
yeah people are really shameless about this.. watching cam quality and shit
I used to love going to the movies at theater. But between people constantly looking at their phones. Coughing every 5 mins. And have to hold a conversation. It really sucks. And thats before you take into account for the movie, drink and popcorn it's now 20-25 bucks to watch the movie. I think I will just buy the UHD blueray and watch the movie on my 65 inch 4k tv with Atmos surround sound at home. Even if I only watch the movie once at least I own it.
And don't get me started about new VIP sections!!! How are you doing to ask people to silence there phone then give them a beer in a glass bottle and food with metal fork and knife.
And don't get me started about new VIP sections!!! How are you doing to ask people to silence there phone then give them a beer in a glass bottle and food with metal fork and knife.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
The crazy thing about Disney is that they don't just dominate the box office. They're also the long reigning king of home video, merchandise, and theme parks. To the point that their ludicrously successful film business is functionally just marketing for their resorts, toys, and BluRays. The closest the competition has is Universal's theme parks, which are still being trounced by Disney, and DC merch. And correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Star Wars merchandise alone bigger than all other non-Disney merchandise, or close to? And then there's the Disney Princess juggernaut getting it's latest booster shot with Beauty and the Beast.
I wonder if we'll see the others push harder to match Disney in these areas. Home video is a lost cause (not worth competing for a shrinking pie) but I feel like there's more effort to be made in merchandise, and WB could always turn the Wizarding World into a bigger theme park partnership with Universal.
I wonder if we'll see the others push harder to match Disney in these areas. Home video is a lost cause (not worth competing for a shrinking pie) but I feel like there's more effort to be made in merchandise, and WB could always turn the Wizarding World into a bigger theme park partnership with Universal.
Black Mamba
Member
More studios should try to zag when the others are all zigging.
Big problem is hollywood is everyone wants to follow the leader rather than carve their own niche, as you point out.
So we don't know what the July 2017 one is, but it's safe to assume that Aladdin or Mulan are the two 2018 ones right?
Disney had an unreal run last year, but that's also partly due to every other studio not stepping up to the plate.
Let's not condemn the other studios already... Universal broke records 2 years ago.
WB has a pretty strong slate, though LEGO Batman deserved a higher gross.
JL/WW should be big and Blade Runner and Dunkirk should bring in respectable money as well.
I mean Universal has:
Unless they are delusional they aren't expecting to compete with Rogue One/Thor/Coco
Let's not condemn the other studios already... Universal broke records 2 years ago.
WB has a pretty strong slate, though LEGO Batman deserved a higher gross.
JL/WW should be big and Blade Runner and Dunkirk should bring in respectable money as well.
I mean Universal has:
Unless they are delusional they aren't expecting to compete with Rogue One/Thor/Coco
Bobby Roberts
Banned
This is a really good point. That market is one that Disney has no desire to pursue. Why not fill that void? It's not like the market really disappeared on its own. It basically got starved. Audiences will turn out for it. 2017 is making a pretty strong case for that already.
In light of the discussion on Bobby's post, I have decided to update a chart I made on Dec 28th last year, looking at Domestic gross vs budget for every 2016 film to release in at least 1500 venues.
The updated version includes 2016 limited releases that went wide in 2017. With a handful of exceptions, these are final or near final grosses.
And some summary statistics based on the numbers above
Keep in mind that the above is just looking at the domestic box office. Big budget films have a much larger international average than small budget films (which may not even get an international release in most territories).
The updated version includes 2016 limited releases that went wide in 2017. With a handful of exceptions, these are final or near final grosses.
Code:
Distributor Total Production Budget (million USD)
1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $530,118,047 200
2 Finding Dory BV $486,295,561 200
3 Captain America: Civil War BV $408,084,349 250
4 The Secret Life of Pets Uni. $368,341,700 75
5 The Jungle Book (2016) BV $364,001,123 175
6 Deadpool Fox $363,070,709 58
7 Zootopia BV $341,268,248 150
8 Batman v Superman WB $330,360,194 250
9 Suicide Squad WB $325,100,054 175
10 Sing Uni. $268,744,865 75
11 Moana BV $247,486,833 150
12 Fantastic Beasts WB $233,818,593 180
13 Doctor Strange BV $232,630,718 165
14 Hidden Figures Fox $162,861,188 25
15 Jason Bourne Uni. $162,192,920 120
16 Star Trek Beyond Par. $158,848,340 185
17 X-Men: Apocalypse Fox $155,442,489 178
18 Trolls Fox $153,584,569 125
19 La La Land LG/S $148,449,258 30
20 Kung Fu Panda 3 Fox $143,528,619 145
21 Ghostbusters (2016) Sony $128,350,574 144
22 Central Intelligence WB (NL) $127,440,871 50
23 The Legend of Tarzan WB $126,643,061 180
24 Sully WB $125,070,033 60
25 Bad Moms STX $113,257,297 20
26 The Angry Birds Movie Sony $107,509,366 73
27 Independence Day: Resurgence Fox $103,144,286 165
28 The Conjuring 2 WB (NL) $102,470,008 40
29 Arrival Par. $100,546,139 47
30 Passengers (2016) Sony $99,350,745 110
31 Sausage Party Sony $97,670,358 19
32 The Magnificent Seven (2016) Sony $93,432,655 90
33 Ride Along 2 Uni. $90,862,685 40
34 Don't Breathe SGem $89,217,875 10
35 Miss Peregrine's Home for... Fox $87,242,834 110
36 The Accountant WB $86,260,045 44
37 TMNT: Out of the Shadows Par. $82,051,601 135
38 The Purge: Election Year Uni. $79,042,440 10
39 Alice Through the Looking Glass BV $77,041,381 170
40 Pete's Dragon (2016) BV $76,233,151 65
41 The Girl on the Train (2016) Uni. $75,395,035 45
42 Boo! A Madea Halloween LGF $73,206,343 20
43 Storks WB $72,679,278 70
44 10 Cloverfield Lane Par. $72,082,998 15
45 Lights Out WB (NL) $67,268,835 5
46 Hacksaw Ridge LGF $67,209,615 40
47 The Divergent Series: Allegiant LG/S $66,184,051 110
48 Now You See Me 2 LG/S $65,075,540 90
49 Ice Age: Collision Course Fox $64,063,008 105
50 The Boss Uni. $63,077,560 29
51 London Has Fallen Focus $62,524,260 60
52 Miracles from Heaven TriS $61,705,123 13
53 Deepwater Horizon LG/S $61,433,527 110
54 Why Him? Fox $60,191,438 38
55 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Uni. $59,689,605 18
56 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Par. $58,697,076 60
57 Fences Par. $57,393,468 24
58 Me Before You WB (NL) $56,245,075 20
59 The BFG BV $55,483,770 140
60 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising Uni. $55,340,730 35
61 The Shallows Sony $55,124,043 17
62 Office Christmas Party Par. $54,767,494 45
63 Assassin's Creed Fox $54,647,948 125
64 Barbershop: The Next Cut WB (NL) $54,030,051 20
65 13 Hours Par. $52,853,219 50
66 Lion Wein. $48,647,617 12
67 Kubo and the Two Strings Focus $48,023,088 60
68 The Huntsman: Winter's War Uni. $48,003,015 115
69 Manchester by the Sea RAtt. $47,532,151 9
70 Warcraft Uni. $47,225,655 160
71 How to Be Single WB (NL) $46,843,513 38
72 Mike and Dave Need Wed. Dates Fox $46,009,673 33
73 War Dogs WB $43,034,523 40
74 Almost Christmas Uni. $42,065,185 17
75 Money Monster TriS $41,012,075 27
76 Allied Par. $40,098,064 85
77 Nerve LGF $38,583,626 20
78 Risen Sony $36,880,033 20
79 The Nice Guys WB $36,261,763 50
80 The Boy (2016) STX $35,819,556 10
81 Dirty Grandpa LGF $35,593,113 12
82 Ouija: Origin of Evil Uni. $35,144,505 9
83 The 5th Wave Sony $34,912,982 38
84 Inferno Sony $34,343,574 75
85 Mother's Day ORF $32,492,859 25
86 Patriot's Day LGF $31,886,361 45
87 Gods of Egypt LG/S $31,153,464 140
88 Collateral Beauty WB (NL) $31,016,021 36
89 Hail, Caesar! Uni. $30,080,225 22
90 When the Bough Breaks SGem $29,747,603 10
91 Zoolander 2 Par. $28,848,693 50
92 The Finest Hours BV $27,569,558 80
93 Florence Foster Jenkins Par. $27,383,770 29
94 Hell or High Water LGF $27,007,844 12
95 Moonlight A24 $26,895,353 2
96 The Forest Focus $26,594,261 10
97 Ben-Hur (2016) Par. $26,410,477 100
98 The Witch A24 $25,138,705 3
99 Bridget Jones's Baby Uni. $24,139,805 35
100 Kevin Hart: What Now? Uni. $23,574,605 10
101 Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Par. $23,083,334 35
102 Snowden ORF $21,587,519 40
103 Mechanic: Resurrection LG/S $21,218,403 40
104 Free State of Jones STX $20,810,036 50
105 Blair Witch LGF $20,777,061 5
106 God's Not Dead 2 PFR $20,774,575 5
107 Keanu WB (NL) $20,591,853 15
108 Middle School: The Worst Years LGF $20,007,149 9
109 Nine Lives (2016) EC $19,700,032 30
110 Race (2016) Focus $19,115,191 5
111 The Choice LGF $18,730,891 10
112 Bad Santa 2 BG $17,678,142 26
113 Masterminds (2016) Rela. $17,368,022 25
114 Norm of the North LGF $17,062,499 18
115 The Birth of a Nation FoxS $15,861,566 9
116 Eddie the Eagle Fox $15,789,389 23
117 The Infiltrator BG $15,436,808 30
118 Keeping Up with the Joneses Fox $14,904,426 40
119 Criminal (2016) LG/S $14,708,696 32
120 The Edge of Seventeen STX $14,431,633 9
121 Triple 9 ORF $12,639,297 20
122 The Light Between Oceans BV $12,545,979 20
123 Fifty Shades of Black ORF $11,686,940 5
124 Pride and Prejudice and Zombies SGem $10,907,291 28
125 The Darkness HTR $10,753,574 4
126 Live by Night WB $10,378,555 65
127 Popstar: Never Stop Never Stop. Uni. $9,496,130 20
128 Hardcore Henry STX $9,252,038 3
129 Ratchet & Clank Focus $8,821,329 20
130 The Wild Life (2016) LG/S $8,005,586 13
131 Silence Par. $7,100,177 40
132 Shut In EC $6,900,335 10
133 The Brothers Grimsby Sony $6,874,837 35
134 The Young Messiah Focus $6,469,813 19
135 Bleed for This ORF $5,083,906 6
136 Incarnate HTR $4,799,774 5
137 Hands of Stone Wein. $4,712,792 20
138 Morgan Fox $3,915,251 8
139 Max Steel ORF $3,818,664 10
140 A Monster Calls Focus $3,740,823 43
141 Rules Don't Apply Fox $3,652,206 25
142 Miss Sloane EC $3,454,831 13
143 The Disappointments Room Rela. $2,423,468 15
TOTAL $10.896B $8.139BAnd some summary statistics based on the numbers above
Code:
Budget Range # of releases Avg Gross in Range Avg Budget in Range
$150M+ 16 $260M $183M
$100-149M 15 $84M $122M
$75-99M 7 $128M $81M
$50-74M 14 $85M $59M
$25-49M 36 $45M $35M
$10-24M 38 $37M $16M
$0-9M 17 $21M $6M
TOTAL 143 $76M $57MKeep in mind that the above is just looking at the domestic box office. Big budget films have a much larger international average than small budget films (which may not even get an international release in most territories).
demosthenes
Member
Where did you get these numbers like the studio gets half of domestic?
Hari Seldon
Member
I know in my house, every time my wife and I think about renting a movie the conversation is "We have 3 more episodes of Show XXXX waiting for us". Renting is no longer the casual weekly ritual it used to be, I might rent 6 movies a year anymore and see 1 in a theater. 10 years ago I would see 4-5 live and rent like 40-50 movies a year. TV being just so ridiculously better combined with Hollywood producing maybe 3-4 movies a year that I would even bother with means that I don't spend anything on Hollywood anymore.
It is a shame, film used to be a huge part of my life.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
When was the last time Sony had a successful blockbuster movie?
Bruh, you at least need to rent Get Out.
Yeah but...
https://twitter.com/raysubers/status/841416968225746944
Admittedly a couple of those are from last year.
https://twitter.com/raysubers/status/841416968225746944
Admittedly a couple of those are from last year.
Triggerhappytel
Member
Unless you're factoring in DVD/BD sales and perhaps merchandise, I seriously doubt either film made a profit for Disney. According to Wikipedia at the box office The BFG cost $140 million and made $183 million while 2 Alice 2 Furious cost $170 million and only made $300 million, which is less than a third of its predecessor. Unlikely these budgets included marketing either, I would guess.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
BFG didn't break-even, far from it.
The only distributor (pre-sold to some international territories to cover the budget) that got a good deal out of BFG was E-One who distributed the pic in the UK and other territories.
Disney and Dreamworks only got red ink.
The only distributor (pre-sold to some international territories to cover the budget) that got a good deal out of BFG was E-One who distributed the pic in the UK and other territories.
Disney and Dreamworks only got red ink.
Yep.
Disney's worldwide cut on Alice 2 was in the neighbourhood of $125M against a production budget of $170M, plus whatever they spent on marketing. Even with home media and other revenue streams, that one is probably still in the red. I wonder what gross percentage they gave to Johnny Depp.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Personally I've largely gotten the numbers from talking with people more in the know than myself, as well as reading posts from knowledgeable folks here on GAF.
If you want some sort of source, a quick search brings up this (admittedly older) iO9 article citing a ~55% domestic share for the studios, using a Cinemark quarterly filing as a primary source. I'm sure other folks here can provide better sources.
http://io9.gizmodo.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable
Triggerhappytel
Member
The irony is that Deadpool was huge partly because it did its own thing and everyone appreciated that fact. Instead of learning a genuinely valuable lesson from that, other studios (and probably Fox themselves) will just queue up to copy it.
Not surprised. General consumer confidence will go down, and movie-going audiences increasingly know what's-what, and are convening on a few franchises or brands like Harry Potter, Fast and the Furious, and Disney and their subsidiaries. People won't go see any big movie or brand movie just because the advertising is everywhere or the brand is whatever that they've heard of, anymore.
KeyBladerXIII
Member
Another fucking SAW movie?
It's a known brand and they can make them for peanuts. That's a win/win as far as Lionsgate are concerned.
They don't even need to hire name talent because the Saw audience all turn up on the opening night to see claret getting sloshed around the screen so Lionsgate can hire any former CSI cast member or former boy band member they want to 'star'.
The only down side for properties like this (and many 'quick fix' horrors like it) is that they have next to no secondary market. The hardcore fans will buy the box sets but who's going to go into Walmart and buy Saw 6 on Blu Ray?!
It's all about turning that fast, cash profit on the theatrical run.
hodayathink
Member
Betting on execution is not a particularly safe bet either. Especially since said execution still needs a significant marketing budget or else it gets lost in the shuffle with the other movies coming out around it. Get Out (and Split) are anomalies, and not the norm, in terms of how movies that cheap tend to do at the box office.
Gentleman Jack
Member
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Disney most likely pushed for the same deal that happened a few years ago when Depp reduced his fee for Into The Woods in order for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides to be greenlit - except now it was Alice 2 for Pirates 5.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
I pretty much only see blockbusters now. Im not paying 30+ bucks to see a movie if the experience isnt enhanced by seeing it in the theater. If its a story driven smaller movie then ill wait till it hits something for home viewing. The only exceptions are if my wife wants to see something, then ill make the trip.
Mushroomer25
Member
Still, for every Get Out you have a dozen horror flicks that pass through theaters making less than $10M in profit. With every weekend becoming a battleground of blockbusters, there's less wiggle room for unexpected hits.
That's why they've become the domain of smaller studios, and seem destined to skip the theater entirely as Netflix and Amazon boost their profiles.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Why do people act like you literally have to buy a 3D, large format, non-matinee ticket, XXXtra large popcorn bucket, XXXtra large soda, a soft pretzel, and a box of the most expensive candy to see a movie in theatres?
Non 3D non-IMAX ticket to see Logan tonight for me would be $13.64 a piece before tax; being that I pay for my wife it works out to $30 on a weeknight. That's before I pay for parking.
We could do a weekend matinee, which we do sometimes, but that's still easily $25 after tax before any concessions are bought. Again, non-3D, etc.
I think most people discuss movie prices in terms of 2 tickets.
Short term thinking though. Disney still needs to make new stuff because Marvel and Star Wars can't last forever, even if it doesn't seem that way at the moment.
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