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[hodayathink]

Short term thinking though. Disney still needs to make new stuff because Marvel and Star Wars can't last forever, even if it doesn't seem that way at the moment.

The trick is that Disney can get away with trying to "make new stuff" once every couple years, and if it fails no big deal (i.e. Tomorrowland), but if it succeeds it's another tentpole to hang with the other stuff. Live action remakes of their classic cartoons wasn't a thing they knew they could bank on until Maleficent (or arguably the first Alice). Pirates was something that you couldn't have been sure would have been a hit when it was pitched (I mean, it's a movie technically based on a theme park ride). They're basically going to be able to ride Marvel into at least 2019, Star Wars until probably 2020, and live action animated remakes until about 2020 as well. And then we get to start talking about WDAS and Pixar, who are doing original movies (Zootopia, Inside Out in recent times).

 

[FoneBone]

How have they not titled a movie that's coming out in 4 months

Because it doesn't exist. They set a placeholder date last year, and don't actually have anything ready for it, but still haven't officially removed that movie from their slate. For whatever reason, this is surprisingly common (for instance, World War Z 2, which still doesn't even have a director, only got officially pulled from a June 2017 release date last month).

 

[Falchion]

Sony and Lionsgate are screwed.

The rest should be fine.

Yeah their releases are awful.

 

[Napalm_Frank]

People who think pirates will bomb are crazy, I tell ya.

 

[AndyVirus]

I couldn't care less for Saw, but I'm surprised and excited over Cloverfield. Can't believe I didn't know about it given that I've been a huge Cloverfield fan since 01-18-08/Slusho!, lol.

It's not about the monster, it's another "spin-off" (Cloverfield cinematic universe?) like 10 Cloverfield Lane.

 

[TDLink]

Pirates won't bomb.

Disney does have great franchises but it's not like the other studios are really slacking.

Universal has a huge hit with Get Out. KONG is off to a great start and their budding monster universe franchise (whatever you want to call it) will likely be successful in future years. Fast is obviously their big hitter and is going to do great this year. Jurassic World was huge and I expect the next film in the franchise to also do well for them. They aren't in trouble at all.

FOX is getting great mileage out of some lower budget films like Logan and likely the upcoming Kingsman sequel. Alien will likely do well for them as well. Planet of the Apes is almost guaranteed to do well. And of course they have the Avatar juggernaut looming on the horizon in 1, 2, 3 years.

WB to me is making some continual missteps but they have great potential. It's painful to see them flub with the DC properties but any year now they can really get it right. And despite the movies not having great reception or hitting their profit potential, they're still making the studio money. I feel like Dunkirk is going to disappoint compared to Nolan's typical sci-fi outings but we'll see. The Lego films (like the recently successful LEGO Batman) at least are providing them with some great hits.

Sony has been facing problems in recent years but Spider-Man is a guaranteed success, with the Marvel Studios branding, for this one. So at least they'll have that and likely have a better year than 2015 or 2016.

Paramount is likely this year's big loser with Ghost in the Shell having bomb written all over it...but they still have Transformers which traditionally does really well.

Overall I don't think any of the studios are truly in trouble even if they don't have as many consistent hit franchises as Disney.

 

[HoodWinked]

blumhouse be like ...

split : 240.7m / budget 9m
get out : 96m / budget 4.5m

but honestly i think its silly for people to think that this is the way of the future it really isn't. relatively low budget horror has always been a thing. it only seems to work with this genre. it may even crash if it becomes over saturated.

 

[Sesha]

Still, for every Get Out you have a dozen horror flicks that pass through theaters making less than $10M in profit. With every weekend becoming a battleground of blockbusters, there's less wiggle room for unexpected hits.

That's why they've become the domain of smaller studios, and seem destined to skip the theater entirely as Netflix and Amazon boost their profiles.

There's a lot of them every year, yes, but a lot of those make money too. Not Get Out money, but money nonetheless.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

It's not about the monster, it's another "spin-off" (Cloverfield cinematic universe?) like 10 Cloverfield Lane.

I know. I knew they were planning on treating Cloverfield as a thematically-related anthology series (with the possibility for occasional sequals) once 10 Cloverfield Lane succeeded, I just didn't realize/remember the next film was coming so soon.

 

[CaviarMeths]

blumhouse be like ...

split : 240.7m / budget 9m
get out : 96m / budget 4.5m

but honestly i think its silly for people to think that this is the way of the future it really isn't. relatively low budget horror has always been a thing. it only seems to work with this genre. it may even crash if it becomes over saturated.

I don't think it's at risk of crashing. People have a buffet of options for low budget horror movies on Netflix, Shudder, etc. The market is saturated already. Going to see horror movies in theaters is still enough of an event with a big enough built-in audience to justify greenlighting pretty much any project with a <$20m budget.

 

[Slayven]

Release all your shit in Jan and Feb!

Well John Wick 2, Get Out, Split, Kong, Logan, Lego Batman have all done good.

Like the game industry, movies need to figure out there more months in the year then summer

 

[The Dutch Slayer]

So Disney is basically gobbling up everything. Well at least Pirates will bomb.

No way Pirates is going to do gangbusters mainstream love the series.

 

[neorej]

Overcrowding, and the outsized dominance of Disney, very clearly significantly suppressed big-budget movie performance across the rest of the industry

Yeah, because without Disney, movies like "The Emoji Movie" and "CHiPS" would be good.

 

[AppleSeason]

For me it's been like that for the last years. I will go to the cinema 1-2 times a year for ultraspecific things, like beauty and the beast and Transformers 2... And that's making a massive sacrifice for a movie, having to deal with overpriced tickets and snacks, douchebags kicking my seat, phone checkers and no peeing pauses in 2,5 - 3 hours movies. And poorly adjusted screens that look worse than my tv setup at home. Not to mention that I have to pay to see a movie crippled by dubbing.

But seriously, what do you expect will happen when you invest into a movie about poop and yellow face icons? Selling Ice Cream in the South pole would be more profitable than most of these movies. They would make more money off me if they offered me a good streaming service for renting movies.

 

[Triggerhappytel]

People who think pirates will bomb are crazy, I tell ya.

I don't know; I can see it doing only like half of the previous film. Which, given the budgets Disney tends to put behind these films, would probably be a significant bomb. I mean, I can see it being a similar situation to Alice 2, and I think people will see Johnny Depp's shtick as getting pretty old now.

 

[PanSexual_Peacock]

Universal has a huge hit with Get Out. KONG is off to a great start and their budding monster universe franchise (whatever you want to call it) will likely be successful in future years. Fast is obviously their big hitter and is going to do great this year. Jurassic World was huge and I expect the next film in the franchise to also do well for them. They aren't in trouble at all.

Kong is actually from WB, not Universal.

 

[Tobor]

I know in my house, every time my wife and I think about renting a movie the conversation is "We have 3 more episodes of Show XXXX waiting for us". Renting is no longer the casual weekly ritual it used to be, I might rent 6 movies a year anymore and see 1 in a theater. 10 years ago I would see 4-5 live and rent like 40-50 movies a year. TV being just so ridiculously better combined with Hollywood producing maybe 3-4 movies a year that I would even bother with means that I don't spend anything on Hollywood anymore.

It is a shame, film used to be a huge part of my life.

You've hit the nail on the head. We're in a golden age of tv content. More good tv than you can even watch. This has completely dulled my desire to see most movies.

I'm down to 3 or 4 theater visits a year when it used to be 10-20.

Blum house does well because teenagers need to get out of the house and Disney controls the 3-4 event movies you have to see. The rest of the industry is going to continue to decline, I think.

 

[Manmademan]

They're basically going to be able to ride Marvel into at least 2019..

2019??

Studios have been riding the Marvel catalogue and making tentpole blockbusters nearly every year since X-men in 2000. If you include "Blade" then it's 1998.

There is literally zero chance Disney isn't making blockbusters out of the Marvel catalogue at least once a year for the next ten years. The vast majority of marvel's IP hasn't been touched yet, and there are pre written story lines and characters that already exist in every single genre you could name without exception.

Worst case scenario Disney ends up in a "Batman" scenario where major IP (let's say Avengers) turns toxic after back to back critical disappointments- it takes a backseat for several years, they exploit lesser known properties in crime, western, horror, sci-fi, or fantasy and relaunch it after a reboot i.e. Batman Begins, Man of Steel, First Class, or Homecoming.

We are probably stuck with Marvel at the box office until the box office model isn't commercially viable anymore.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Paramount is likely this year's big loser with Ghost in the Shell having bomb written all over it...but they still have Transformers which traditionally does really well.

Really? I'm pretty excited to see it. Hadn't gotten around to seeing the anime, but the upcoming movie compelled be to watch it last weekend, and now I am even more hyped.

This isn't high-concept Passengers we're talking about, it's cool sci-fi action. Seems like it could be big.

 

[ZackieChan]

Betting on execution is not a particularly safe bet either. Especially since said execution still needs a significant marketing budget or else it gets lost in the shuffle with the other movies coming out around it. Get Out (and Split) are anomalies, and not the norm, in terms of how movies that cheap tend to do at the box office.

Yeah, the number of movies that get made cheaply and either don't get distribution or make no money is very large. That's why the industry continues to be extremely hit driven.

Where did you get these numbers like the studio gets half of domestic?

I learned the 50% number in my Entertainment Law class in law school. It's a good rule of thumb, but can vary. For instance, the studio may get a higher percentage in the beginning, then it gets lower over the weeks.

 

[Mushroomer25]

Really? I'm pretty excited to see it. Hadn't gotten around to seeing the anime, but the upcoming movie compelled be to watch it last weekend, and now I am even more hyped.

This isn't high-concept Passengers we're talking about, it's cool sci-fi action. Seems like it could be big.

GitS seems like a wildcard. I think it looks legitimately good, and critics might be kind to it. Still, the whitewashing claims haven't totally subsided - and that bad press might be enough to keep a decent segment of the target market at arms length. It's going to be banking on international pull, for sure.

 

[shintoki]

Like the game industry, movies need to figure out there more months in the year then summer

I think the movies have adjusted pretty well. Tentpole films start coming in Feb and run through August. January is typically reserved for a lot of Oscar films, limited expansions, and the run off from the big films of December. Hidden Figures and LaLa land put in work in Jan.

January, we did get RE, xXx, and Split. They had some other shit, but it tanked. xXx with it's diverse cast did some bank WW. RE continues to grow as a franchise.

Feb had: Lego, Wick, 50 Shades, Get Out, Rings, Cure for Wellness and The Great Wall. Ones that reviewed well, seemed to do pretty damn well.

March: We got Logan, followed by Kong, followed by BATB, followed by Power Rangers, followed by GITS, with FnF topping it off in April.

We're at the point where large films will be releasing nearly weekly from Mid Feb to August. With a break in between for September and October. But even October this year is surprisingly strong this year with God Particle, Blade Runner, Kingman. When I recall it being more dry.


I feel like the bigger issue is, there is simply too many at times. It's exhausting trying to keep up. They need to space them out better, but the questions is where and when?

Continuing on with march, in order
This week(1) : BATB
2: Power Rangers
3: GITS
4:Smurfs
5: FnF
6. No major release
7: The Circle
8: GOTG2
9: King Arthur
10. Alien Convenant
11: Pirates/Baywatch
12: WW
13: Mummy
14: Cars3
15: Transformers 5
16: DesMe3
17: Spiderman:H
18: Planet of the Apes 3
19: Dunkirk
20: The Dark Tower
21:Emoji Movie/Bigelow's film
22: Annabelle 2(Part of the Conjuring series)
23: Nothing.

All of these are just the bigger releases for the next half of the year.

 

[Garmonbozia]

I would love to see the big return of mid-budgeted movies, I just don't know how viable they are, since people just don't go as much to movie theaters, making it risky to release too many movies in one year.

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

Why do people act like you literally have to buy a 3D, large format, non-matinee ticket, XXXtra large popcorn bucket, XXXtra large soda, a soft pretzel, and a box of the most expensive candy to see a movie in theatres?

Get Out cost me and my wife 32 dollars. I apologize that our jobs kept us from getting 3pm weekday prices. There were no food or drinks to be spoken of.

 

[kswiston]

Get Out cost me and my wife 32 dollars. I apologize that our jobs kept us from getting 3pm weekday prices. There were no food or drinks to be spoken of.

A lot of this is city dependant. Where I live, $16 is the IMAX price. Regular tickets are $8-10 depending on the theatre. Add $3 for 3D.

If you live in a big city, tickets are more expensive, but so is entertainment in general.

 

[Brian_FETO]

I was not aware we were getting a Kingsman sequel this year (or if I was I forgot from all of the other potentially cool movies this year)

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Get Out cost me and my wife 32 dollars. I apologize that our jobs kept us from getting 3pm weekday prices. There were no food or drinks to be spoken of.

A lot of this is city dependant. Where I live, $16 is the IMAX price. Regular tickets are $8-10 depending on the theatre. Add $3 for 3D.

If you live in a big city, tickets are more expensive, but so is entertainment in general.

I pay around that much for IMAX 3D even if I go into the city, next to one of the most expensive and highest earning malls in the country. Perhaps the dominance of our regional chain has kept our prices down though.

 

[HeartlessNobody213]

Yeah movie ticket prices are crazy sometimes. That's why I always catch the Saturday morning show.

$6.50-$7.50 for a standard showing and $12.50 for Dolby or IMAX/3-D

 

[timberger]

lol at people thinking Spider-Man isn't going to make mad bank.

Also, Fate of the Furious is gonna crush everything else this year, Star Wars included. Lets do this!

 

[demosthenes]

Still, for every Get Out you have a dozen horror flicks that pass through theaters making less than $10M in profit. With every weekend becoming a battleground of blockbusters, there's less wiggle room for unexpected hits.

That's why they've become the domain of smaller studios, and seem destined to skip the theater entirely as Netflix and Amazon boost their profiles.

I don't believe this.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but I look at the boxoffice thread every week and while horror movies don't print money they almost ALWAYS make money I feel like because of super low budgets and a crowd that always turns up.

And of course boxofficemojo is down :lol

Get Out cost me and my wife 32 dollars. I apologize that our jobs kept us from getting 3pm weekday prices. There were no food or drinks to be spoken of.

Yikes.

On Friday, a 2d showing is $10 or $12.50 in Buffalo, NY. Tuesday = $5 movie day at all regals at all hours. AMC is $6 I think on Tuesdays, not just matinee.

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

Yikes.

On Friday, a 2d showing is $10 or $12.50 in Buffalo, NY. Tuesday = $5 movie day at all regals at all hours. AMC is $6 I think on Tuesdays, not just matinee.

Just pulled up the price for Get Out on next Tuesday for 7:15 at AMC Phipps Plaza.....................$17.15 after taxes and fees at Barrett Parkway its $13.68. Pretty far from 6 bucks.

 

[elrechazado]

I'm super hyped for Untitled PG-13 Comedy

 

[kswiston]

lol at people thinking Spider-Man isn't going to make mad bank.

Also, Fate of the Furious is gonna crush everything else this year, Star Wars included. Lets do this!

I think that Fate of the Furious is heading for a pretty big drop over Furious 7. Skyfall to Spectre big.

 

[Tobor]

I think that Fate of the Furious is heading for a pretty big drop over Furious 7. Skyfall to Spectre big.

I was speculating about his with a friend, he thinks 7 overperformed due to Paul Walker dieing. It's possible.

 

[hodayathink]

2019??

Studios have been riding the Marvel catalogue and making tentpole blockbusters nearly every year since X-men in 2000. If you include "Blade" then it's 1998.

There is literally zero chance Disney isn't making blockbusters out of the Marvel catalogue at least once a year for the next ten years. The vast majority of marvel's IP hasn't been touched yet, and there are pre written story lines and characters that already exist in every single genre you could name without exception.

Worst case scenario Disney ends up in a "Batman" scenario where major IP (let's say Avengers) turns toxic after back to back critical disappointments- it takes a backseat for several years, they exploit lesser known properties in crime, western, horror, sci-fi, or fantasy and relaunch it after a reboot i.e. Batman Begins, Man of Steel, First Class, or Homecoming.

We are probably stuck with Marvel at the box office until the box office model isn't commercially viable anymore.

I agree with you, I'm saying 2019 as an absolute worst case scenario where the Infinity War movies both bomb and they're looking at having to change things up entirely. Which probably isn't going to happen, but it's still technically possible. Just like I think Star Wars will churn out movies well past 2020 as well (though I admit that there will probably be a gap of a few years between mainline entries after Ep. 9).

 

[kswiston]

I agree with you, I'm saying 2019 as an absolute worst case scenario where the Infinity War movies both bomb and they're looking at having to change things up entirely. Which probably isn't going to happen, but it's still technically possible. Just like I think Star Wars will churn out movies well past 2020 as well (though I admit that there will probably be a gap of a few years between mainline entries after Ep. 9).

I think that Fantastic Beasts is a pretty good demonstration that a lot of people don't get sick of these long running franchises as long as there's some minimal level of quality being met. $800M for a prequel/period film that had way less common ground with the main series than something like Rogue One.

If you can consistently deliver 6 to 8 out of 10 films in a familiar setting with some sort of spectacle, audiences seem to be happy to return. The MCU basically lives in that range.

 

[skelekey]

As a huge fan of all things Disney, I'm not too fussed about this.

 

[demosthenes]

Just pulled up the price for Get Out on next Tuesday for 7:15 at AMC Phipps Plaza.....................$17.15 after taxes and fees at Barrett Parkway its $13.68. Pretty far from 6 bucks.

Move to Buffalo!

 

[Heshinsi]

Pretty much. They seem to have the winning formula with Marvel, Star Wars, Live Action Remakes of Cartoons, New animated movies. Not a bomb in the whole bunch.

Pete's Dragon and BFG were bombish. But hey, they can shit movies like these out and not even worry about it lol.