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[Mardak]

So Nintendo made around $10 billion in 2008. That's almost as much as the total amount the whole industry was making in 2005. That's including the launch of Xbox 360 and plenty of systems+games for DS, PS2, Xbox, GameCube, and GBA.

 

[Mardak]

If Nintendo made $10.0B in 2008 with $4.9B from games and $2.5B Wii consoles ($250 * 10.2M) and $1.3B DS consoles ($130 * 10.0), there's still $1.3B missing.

Is that $1.3B worth of accessories? Assuming only the 10.2M new Wii owners are picking up extra controllers, that's ~$130 worth of accessories -- enough for a couple Wii Remotes and Nunchuks (and Wii Points?)

If you take the top 4 Nintendo's Wii games of 2008, their revenue doesn't even match the $1.3B of accessories: $264M Wii Play + $250M Mario Kart + $408M Wii Fit + $209M Smash = $1.13B.

What's in Nintendo's long tail of game sales because $1.13B is much less than $4.9B. The $4.9B doesn't include Nintendo game sale royalties, right?

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Video game software in december was $2.39B
2.39B * .37 = 884300000
Average price of Wii game-----Total software units sold in december
$50=17.686M
$45=19.651M
$40=22.107M
$35=25.265M


I would suspect that the Wii sold just over 20 million copies of software in december

I wonder if they are closing in on MS total software sales for 360.

 

[Yes Boss!]

If Nintendo made $10.0B in 2008 with $4.9B from games and $2.5B Wii consoles ($250 * 10.2M) and $1.3B DS consoles ($130 * 10.0), there's still $1.3B missing.

That is platform marketshare. So that means it is all of Nintendo's stuff plus all the third party games. Damn, they must be making a killing on royalty fees on the DS and Wii though...so they even get a chunk of that.

I really wish MS would release a dedicated handheld gaming device. The marketshare split really shows how important it is to control more than one piece of hardware.

 

[xbhaskarx]

Not bad for The Sony Family.

 

[Parl]

360 has twice the user base of the PS3 but sold less than twice as many pieces of software this year.

According to the article, 360 owners bought 48-49 million pieces of software and PS3 owners bought 27 million pieces of software. Individual PS3 owners bought more software for their consoles this year than individual 360 owners bought for theirs.

The key point here is that on average, the most active members of a userbase are those who recently purchased the console.

The proportion of PS3's userbase who purchased their PS3 in 2008, is massive compared the proportion of the 360 userbase who purchased their 360 in 2008.

This would mean that if the rate of sales for PS3 owners would be slightly or significantly higher compared to installed base - this is represnted in the sales.

Next year, the disparity between 360's and PS3's percentage increase in userbase expansion won't be as big, which would mean that this minor gap between the activity of the PS3's and 360's userbase will close (all things remaining equal, which they won't).

 

[Parl]

That is platform marketshare. So that means it is all of Nintendo's stuff plus all the third party games. Damn, they must be making a killing on royalty fees on the DS and Wii though...so they even get a chunk of that.

Nintendo won't get all $10 billion of that, but most of it because of hardware and high marketshare in software sales on their platforms

 

[jvm]

Most of my constructive criticisms are of the copy editing variety. ...snip... Please for the love of god, don't start sentences with "interestingly"

That is all

:lol Ok. Thanks so much. I will feel you over my shoulder next time I'm writing and I'll wear my backspace key out removing all the Interestingly uses.

Gnumeric charts > Openoffice charts. Ridiculous but true. Fortunately data export/import between these two is easy.

Ha. I tried the latest Windows version (stupid Windows laptop) and there was something about it I thought was inadequate. I'll go back and revisit it.

 

[jvm]

If Nintendo made $10.0B in 2008 with $4.9B from games and $2.5B Wii consoles ($250 * 10.2M) and $1.3B DS consoles ($130 * 10.0), there's still $1.3B missing.

The rest is accessories, I believe.

Note the figures (in billions) that Sony stated in last week's PR: $6.4 (total) = $3.2 (games) + $2.5 (hardware) + $0.7 (???).

That ??? I took to be accessories.

Sony also gave out monthly figures like those above all through 2008. It appears from those that Sony was making $40M a month on accessories, easily, during the middle of the year. They made more than that in the month that MGS4 launched, for example.

Look at the top 10 accessories lists for the past few months. I believe the Wii stuff is always on top. So I consider the $1.3B in accessories possible for them if they dominate the charts with several $20 accessories every month and are not quite twice what Sony's making.

However, that's how you can get there from public data.

Adding: $2.58B in accessories sales in all of 2008. That has to be distributed among the three platform holders, and I think what I've done above does so reasonably.

 

[shykyoichi]

Great article, I think this part is of interest to sales agers

It's also a point of interest to know that, generally, software tie ratio is high for a console with low market share.

 

[Beer Monkey]

360 has twice the user base of the PS3 but sold less than twice as many pieces of software this year.

When Playstation 2 had several times the user base of the Xbox, did its total software sell in as high of multiples as the installed base?

 

[Stumpokapow]

When Playstation 2 had several times the user base of the Xbox, did its total software sell in as high of multiples as the installed base?

i know your question is rhetorical, but for the benefit of the guy you are asking:

no.

 

[jvm]

Video game software in december was $2.39B
2.39B * .37 = 884300000
Average price of Wii game-----Total software units sold in december
$50=17.686M
$45=19.651M
$40=22.107M
$35=25.265M


I would suspect that the Wii sold just over 20 million copies of software in december

I think it's better than you stated. Didn't you just use the December 2007 figure in your calculation?

 

[Shurs]

When Playstation 2 had several times the user base of the Xbox, did its total software sell in as high of multiples as the installed base?

That's irrelevant. I'm just pointing out that the idea that PS3 owners don't buy games for their systems is flat out wrong.

 

[ViperVisor]

Wherever did PS3 owners not buying games come from? The standard that Wii people didn't when they did?

Problem is they don't buy enough cause you aren't gonna buy 2 of the same game. The console base is what is causing the struggles of some games.

 

[FrankT]

Not the fact they are not buying any games it's seemingly they cannot sustain any kind of legs, but with the base where it is versus the others that isn't all that surprising.

The graph represents a macro view of the industry from a retail perspective. Yes, game sales are up, but the situation is pretty dire for a large proportion of its participants in publishing and development.

The "current economic climate" as it relates to credit, share prices, and the cost of money is negatively affecting publishers' ability to fund development. Sales growth has also softened so longer term projections haven't been reached. They are cutting costs and projects to compensate, which has a significant flow on effect to developers.

When you combine that with other existing fundamental industry issues such as a crowded market, short shelf life, rising costs, quality talent shortages, low margins, and commercial used game sales growing faster than new game sales, its no surprise that earnings are down and studios are closing.

The current economic climate is indeed making a bad situation a lot worse.

Indeed

 

[donny2112]

Video game software in december was $2.39B
2.39B * .37 = 884300000

$2.75B => Wii was over $1B in software revenue for December.

The more flabbergasting element of this is that the Wii in December had more software revenue than the PS2 in its best December (2003). Part of that is undoubtedly due to Wii Fit ($90) selling ~1 million and the high sales of the music games (GHWT and RB 1/2) on the system. It still goes to show that third-parties are missing out a lot by dismissing any potential Wii sales for their games. Neither the Wii nor any other current-generation system will be as lucrative as the PS2 for third-parties this generation, which makes it all the more important to try to capture as much market on the Wii as possible in addition to whatever they sell on the PS360.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I pieced together a few bits of data and see another interesting pass could take place in the next few months.

KNOWN: Wii's tie ratio after December 2007 was 4.64. This makes software sales at the time about 34 million.
ESTIMATE: jvm's article thinks about 70 million units of Wii software sold in 2008.
SUM: This would mean Wii software is at about 104 million after December 2008.

KNOWN: X360's tie ratio after December 2007 was 7.0. This makes software sales at the time about 64 million.
GUESS: Since MS didn't announce an X360 tie ratio, jvm thinks it probably stayed flat at 8.1 or possibly even declined.
MULTIPLY: Going with 8.1 for the moment, that would put X360 software at about 112 million after December 2008.

So it might not be long before total Wii software passes up total X360 software? After 2008 X360 lead by 30 million. It now leads by 8 million. Whereas Wii was ~3 million behind in hardware at the beginning of last year, it's now ~4 million ahead, so the software number should move much more quickly in its favor this year.

 

[donny2112]

~ Known first-party Wii sales:

Wii Play 1.46 million @ $50
Wii Fit 999K @ $90
Mario Kart Wii 878K @ $50
Animal Crossing 497K @ $55
Wii Music 488K @$50
Link's Crossbow Training ~400K ? @ $20

=> $266.55 million (4.722 million units)

Other first-party software titles:

Twilight Princess
Wario Ware: Smooth Moves
Super Paper Mario
Mario Strikers Charged
Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree
Mario Party 8
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Excite Truck
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
Donkey Kong Barrell Blast
Battalion Wars 2
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
Wario Land: Shake It!
Endless Ocean
Super Mario Sluggers

Some of these would not be selling much anymore (e.g. Excite Truck, Fire Emblem) while others probably saw a big boost in December (e.g. Endless Ocean, Mario Party, Brawl). If we assume that these games averaged 100K each in December @ $50...

=> $80 million (1.6 million units)

=> Total first-party Wii software revenue in December ~= $347 million (6.3 million units)

=> Total third-party Wii software revenue in December ~= $660 million

If average selling price (ASP) is $50 (Music games would be higher, budget software would be lower) => ~13.2 million units of third-party software in December for the Wii.
If ASP is $40 => ~16.5 million units of third-party software in December for the Wii.

@ $50 ASP for third-party games: 68% of unit sales on the Wii were third-party games in December
@ $40 ASP for third-party games: 72% of unit sales on the Wii were third-party games in December

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Nonetheless, the notion that PS3 games don't sell is shortsighted and not necessarily true from a global perspective, and is only skewed by the US charts that many people seem to focus on.

But the the entire point of this thread are the US charts, that's why people are focused on it.

Wherever did PS3 owners not buying games come from?

The question started being asked when it was revealed that only a single PS3 game made it into the top 20 selling games for the Christmas month.

 

[Parl]

Nice analysis. Shame there's no hard numbers though.

Sony had a large first part presence on PS3 too (I imagine that's shrunken though). Weren't they at around 30% this time last year?

 

[jvm]

I pieced together a few bits of data and see another interesting pass could take place in the next few months.

I agree with all the figures in this post.

 

[jvm]

Good news. There will be a modest update tomorrow with some additional data.

 

[Gaborn]

The question started being asked when it was revealed that only a single PS3 game made it into the top 20 selling games for the Christmas month.

Actually I think it was asked a while ago when the PS3's attach rate was claimed to be at or below the Wii's (which, considering their respective sales rates was surprising.) This was back when their attach rates were thought to be around 4.0 though.

 

[Chumly]

I think it's better than you stated. Didn't you just use the December 2007 figure in your calculation?

$2.75B => Wii was over $1B in software revenue for December.

The more flabbergasting element of this is that the Wii in December had more software revenue than the PS2 in its best December (2003). Part of that is undoubtedly due to Wii Fit ($90) selling ~1 million and the high sales of the music games (GHWT and RB 1/2) on the system. It still goes to show that third-parties are missing out a lot by dismissing any potential Wii sales for their games. Neither the Wii nor any other current-generation system will be as lucrative as the PS2 for third-parties this generation, which makes it all the more important to try to capture as much market on the Wii as possible in addition to whatever they sell on the PS360.

>< It was late last night!

But you guys are correct

 

[Chumly]

~ Known first-party Wii sales:

Wii Play 1.46 million @ $50
Wii Fit 999K @ $90
Mario Kart Wii 878K @ $50
Animal Crossing 497K @ $55
Wii Music 488K @$50
Link's Crossbow Training ~400K ? @ $20

=> $266.55 million (4.722 million units)

Other first-party software titles:

Twilight Princess
Wario Ware: Smooth Moves
Super Paper Mario
Mario Strikers Charged
Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree
Mario Party 8
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Excite Truck
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
Donkey Kong Barrell Blast
Battalion Wars 2
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
Wario Land: Shake It!
Endless Ocean
Super Mario Sluggers

Some of these would not be selling much anymore (e.g. Excite Truck, Fire Emblem) while others probably saw a big boost in December (e.g. Endless Ocean, Mario Party, Brawl). If we assume that these games averaged 100K each in December @ $50...

=> $80 million (1.6 million units)

=> Total first-party Wii software revenue in December ~= $347 million (6.3 million units)

=> Total third-party Wii software revenue in December ~= $660 million
Guitar Hero World Your 859k @ $100
Rock Band 2 150k @ $100
=>$100.9M
=> Total third-party Wii software revenue in December excluding above ~= $559 million

If average selling price (ASP) is $50 (Music games would be higher, budget software would be lower) => ~11.18 million units of third-party software in December for the Wii.
If ASP is $40 => ~13.975 million units of third-party software in December for the Wii.

@ $50 ASP for third-party games: 68% of unit sales on the Wii were third-party games in December
@ $40 ASP for third-party games: 72% of unit sales on the Wii were third-party games in December

I added some other things in. I debated on the average price of GHWT and RB2 and people can adjust accordingly to what they think but I think the overall average price is brought down by the individual game sales and guitar+game bundles which were sold for $80 at a lot of places (Plus the complete bundles seemed to be in low stock).

If we take out those two music numbers I would think the average selling price would easily be down lower towards $40 bring third party sales that arent music games (Newest ones) around 14 million copies.

With 14 million copies of third party games sold thats enough for 140 third party titles to sell over 100k on the Wii in december.

 

[botticus]

@ $50 ASP for third-party games: 68% of unit sales on the Wii were third-party games in December
@ $40 ASP for third-party games: 72% of unit sales on the Wii were third-party games in December

As an interesting counterpoint to these numbers for December, according to NPD the top 10 SKUs for Wii in 2008 (which are assuredly dominated by Nintendo: Wii Play, Mario Kart, Wii Fit, SSBB, etc, but also likely including GH and RB) accounted for 44% of software sales for the platform.

And in 2008, Wii produced some especially stunning numbers, according to Klotz: "When you're looking at the Wii, what's really interesting is, when you look at 2008, the top ten SKUs accounted for 44 percent of the sales. There were 432 titles available in the market for the Wii... strictly retail."

http://gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=21917

Of course you'd have to consider other factors like based on Matt's/JJS's estimates, there were 70 million units of Wii software sold in 2008 versus 48 for 360, and lower for PS3.

 

[lubczyk]

So when do you people wager that Western 3rd parties will wake the **** up and start putting their best on the Wii and not into the PS3/360/PC money drain?

 

[Eteric Rice]

So when do you people wager that Western 3rd parties will wake the **** up and start putting their best on the Wii and not into the PS3/360/PC money drain?

Probably never, at least in the west.

Japan seems to be doing it to some extent. <3 Dragon Quest X.

 

[Leezard]

So when do you people wager that Western 3rd parties will wake the **** up and start putting their best on the Wii and not into the PS3/360/PC money drain?

Probably not this gen. Wii 2 has a chance, though.

 

[Stumpokapow]

So when do you people wager that Western 3rd parties will wake the **** up and start putting their best on the Wii and not into the PS3/360/PC money drain?

ya i know ****

 

[Zombie James]

So when do you people wager that Western 3rd parties will wake the **** up and start putting their best on the Wii and not into the PS3/360/PC money drain?

I keep making this point but no one ever picks up on it, but i honestly believe that if the Wii were as powerful as (or close enough to) a 360 western developers and publishers would be moving all of their projects over to the Wii along with the 360/PS3/PC, without question. It has nothing to do with audience or "waking up", they most-likely just don't have the resources or simply don't want to heavily modify their games to run on the Wii as it is right now. Like the poster above said, maybe with the Wii 2 - if Nintendo can catch up enough technologically - 3rd parties will start bringing their big content over.

 

[donny2112]

As an interesting counterpoint to these numbers for December, according to NPD the top 10 SKUs for Wii in 2008 (which are assuredly dominated by Nintendo: Wii Play, Mario Kart, Wii Fit, SSBB, etc, but also likely including GH and RB) accounted for 44% of software sales for the platform.


http://gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=21917

Of course you'd have to consider other factors like based on Matt's/JJS's estimates, there were 70 million units of Wii software sold in 2008 versus 48 for 360, and lower for PS3.

Top selling games of 2008

WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 5.28M
WII MARIO KART W/ WHEEL 5.00M
WII FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD 4.53M
WII SUPER SMASH BROS: BRAWL 4.17M
360 GRAND THEFT AUTO IV 3.29M*
360 CALL OF DUTY: WORLD AT WAR 2.75M*
360 GEARS OF WAR 2 2.31M*
PS3 GRAND THEFT AUTO IV 1.89M*
360 MADDEN NFL 09 1.87M*
NDS MARIO KART 1.65M


*Includes Collector's, Limited, Legendary, and Bundled Editions

We know the top 4 Wii games for 2008 from the above, and the total sales for those are 18.98 million. 44% of 70 million is 30.8 million, so 5-10 sold ~11.8 million. That's not possible. That would average out to 1.97 million per title for 5-10, which means some of those should be showing up in the Top 10 games for 2008.

Something is not right.

Edit:
With some quick checking, I agree with jvm/JJS's estimation on 2008 Wii software sales, so either NPD put out bad Top 10 2008 numbers or Mr. Klotz is not referring to what we think he's referring to. :/

 

[botticus]

We know the top 4 Wii games for 2008 from the above, and the total sales for those are 18.98 million. 44% of 70 million is 30.8 million, so 5-10 sold ~11.8 million. That's not possible. That would average out to 1.97 million per title for 5-10, which means some of those should be showing up in the Top 10 games for 2008.

Something is not right.

Good call. Either the 44% number is wrong (or correct in a different context) or the 70 million is really off. Considering Nintendo pegged Wii + DS software at 132 million for the year, I don't see 70 million for Wii being a bad estimate.

With some quick checking, I agree with jvm/JJS's estimation on 2008 Wii software sales, so either NPD put out bad Top 10 2008 numbers or Mr. Klotz is spouting FUD. :/

I'll hope for the former, so they have to correct it, thereby giving us more numbers.

Any chance you could follow up with NPD/Klotz, jvm?

 

[TelemachusD]

We know the top 4 Wii games for 2008 from the above, and the total sales for those are 18.98 million. 44% of 70 million is 30.8 million, so 5-10 sold ~11.8 million. That's not possible. That would average out to 1.97 million per title for 5-10, which means some of those should be showing up in the Top 10 games for 2008.

Something is not right.

Edit:
With some quick checking, I agree with jvm/JJS's estimation on 2008 Wii software sales, so either NPD put out bad Top 10 2008 numbers or Mr. Klotz is not referring to what we think he's referring to. :/

Are you taking the premium pricing on Wii Fit, Guitar Hero, and Rock Band into account? That 44% just says sales, so it might mean revenue instead of units.

 

[Gaborn]

Are you taking the premium pricing on Wii Fit, Guitar Hero, and Rock Band into account? That 44% just says sales, so it might mean revenue instead of units.

If you're right that would make some sense, considering it would also factor in the price of budget titles (which don't necessarily sell well for a lot of the shovel ware) on the low end too.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I keep making this point but no one ever picks up on it, but i honestly believe that if the Wii were as powerful as (or close enough to) a 360 western developers and publishers would be moving all of their projects over to the Wii along with the 360/PS3/PC, without question. It has nothing to do with audience or "waking up", they most-likely just don't have the resources or simply don't want to heavily modify their games to run on the Wii as it is right now. Like the poster above said, maybe with the Wii 2 - if Nintendo can catch up enough technologically - 3rd parties will start bringing their big content over.

I agree wholeheartedly with this post aside from this part.

This should be no excuse. They HAVE to do it. Why exclude the mainstream platform?

Rhetorical question so don't answer that.

 

[speculawyer]

Summary: Nintendo is eating everyone's lunch.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

So when do you people wager that Western 3rd parties will wake the **** up and start putting their best on the Wii and not into the PS3/360/PC money drain?

Well, on PS3/360/PC they have three different ways to make their money back plus they have a huge option to make more money on DLC. With Wii, you have one option and the DLC options are severely limited.

I also think as well that most developers working on games may not want to work on the system and would want to work on the biggest and best tech so there is that to think about.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Summary: Nintendo is eating everyone's lunch.

But with what games?

Seriously I don't understand what people are buying!?!

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Usually people who say those things don't care about the wii or any news surrounding the wii nor do they care about sales data. The perception that the wii is only bought for wiisports was formed early on to dismiss the wii's success.

Since people don't care to read up on things they're stuck with the early perception only solidified by those kinds of people surrounding themselves with people who have the same perception. Aside from that people don't generally take anything beyond the NPD top 10 into consideration when making these kinds of statements.

What about those of us that couldn't care aless if the Wii outsold PS360 1000\1 hardware, games accessories and all?

Games designed to run well on PS360 will never run on Wii, all the wishing in the world isn't going to change that.

If M$ and Sony decide to take the Wii path next time well.....oh well back to PC gaming then. pretty simple really

 

[donny2112]

Are you taking the premium pricing on Wii Fit, Guitar Hero, and Rock Band into account? That 44% just says sales, so it might mean revenue instead of units.

WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 5.28M @ $50
WII MARIO KART W/ WHEEL 5.00M @ $50
WII FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD 4.53M @ $90
WII SUPER SMASH BROS: BRAWL 4.17M @ $50

=> $1.13B

#10 for 2008 was at 1.65 million units, so let's assume that whatever 5-10 are, they sold 1.5 million units each in 2008, unless we do have the number.

RB1 = 1 million @ $170 (launch price, which dropped in Nov/Dec, IIRC) => $170 million
GHIII = 1.5 million @ $90 => $135 million
GH:WT = 1.5 million @ ~$150 (guess) => $225 million

3 @ 1.5 million @ $50 => $225 million

=> High estimate for Wii Top 10 2008 revenue = $1.885B

If that's 44% of total revenue, then total revenue is ~$4.28B leaving ~$2.4B outside of the Top 10. Divided by the remaining units (42.5 million) yields an ASP of $56.47 per unit.

:lol

No.

Good suggestion, though!

 

[Arde5643]

What about those of us that couldn't care aless if the Wii outsold PS360 1000\1 hardware, games accessories and all?

Games designed to run well on PS360 will never run on Wii, all the wishing in the world isn't going to change that.

If M$ and Sony decide to take the Wii path next time well.....oh well back to PC gaming then. pretty simple really

Wrong thread.

Lrn2read noob, kthxbye.

 

[jvm]

But with what games?

Seriously I don't understand what people are buying!?!

I think the answer is "pretty much anything on the shelves". The Wii sections of the 2-3 GameStop stores I visited between 25 December and 2 January were picked nearly clean, compared to what they normally have. The next week they had more, and last week just a bit more.

 

[professor_t]

So when do you people wager that Western 3rd parties will wake the **** up and start putting their best on the Wii and not into the PS3/360/PC money drain?

I wouldn't necessarily call those platforms "money drains," especially the 360, which has treated some publishers quite well with very robust sales.

But, before we answer your question, what "best" games are you talking about that made it down the "money drain" but never hit the Wii?

 

[John Dunbar]

Well, on PS3/360/PC they have three different ways to make their money back plus they have a huge option to make more money on DLC. With Wii, you have one option and the DLC options are severely limited.

Other than music games like Rock Band and Guitar Hero, do any games make so much money from DLC that it should significantly factor in deciding the platform?

 

[affableamerican]

Clearly 3rd party titles sell on the Wii, but the question that faces a 3rd party publisher of a so-called AAA title (i.e., high production costs, high marketing spend) is whether AAA 3rd party titles have as good a chance of getting big sales on the Wii as on the 360/PS3. 3rd party budget titles, taken as a group (and it's a bigger group on Wii, smaller on PS3/360 -- my assumption), contribute heavily to the overall revenue/unit sales on the Wii. Someone earlier talked about 360 consumers as "game-of-the-week" buyers, which is why you see such big numbers for AAA 3rd party releases.

I guess the question I pose is this: For the publishers of AAA 3rd party games (i.e., the games that 90% of GAF care most about), which platform looks more promising -- Wii or 360/PS3?

(Maybe this is an obvious point, but I keep seeing the following inane discussion in these threads:
***
Gaffer 1: 3rd parties on Wii -- lulz.
Gaffer 2: Wii has HUGE 3rd party numbers! Lulz-squared!
Gaffer 1: No wai.
Gaffer 2: Yes wai.
~fin~
***
I think those two Gaffers are talking about different kinds of 3rd party titles.)

 

[donny2112]

WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 5.28M @ $50
WII MARIO KART W/ WHEEL 5.00M @ $50
WII FIT W/ BALANCE BOARD 4.53M @ $90
WII SUPER SMASH BROS: BRAWL 4.17M @ $50

=> $1.13B

#10 for 2008 was at 1.65 million units, so let's assume that whatever 5-10 are, they sold 1.5 million units each in 2008, unless we do have the number.

RB1 = 1 million @ $170 (launch price, which dropped in Nov/Dec, IIRC) => $170 million
GHIII = 1.5 million @ $90 => $135 million
GH:WT = 1.5 million @ ~$150 (guess) => $225 million

3 @ 1.5 million @ $50 => $225 million

=> High estimate for Wii Top 10 2008 revenue = $1.885B

If that's 44% of total revenue, then total revenue is ~$4.28B leaving ~$2.4B outside of the Top 10. Divided by the remaining units (42.5 million) yields an ASP of $56.47 per unit.

:lol

No.

Good suggestion, though!

D'oh! I just realized that I should've been aiming for the low estimate of Top 10 2008 revenue. Okay, in that case, let's assume that 5-10 sold 1.1 million (thus excluding RB1), unless we know otherwise.

1-4 => $1.13B, still.
GH:WT = 1.5 million @ ~$150 (guess) => $225 million, still

5 @ 1.1 million @ $50 => $275 million

=> Low estimate for Wii Top 10 2008 revenue = $1.63B

If that's 44% of total revenue, then total revenue is ~$3.7B leaving ~$2.1B outside of the Top 10. Divided by the remaining units (44.0 million) yields an ASP of $47.72 per unit. That's more reasonable, thought I'd like to still get clarification on it.

Edit:

Wii or 360/PS3?

You're going about it all wrong. It should be Wii and 360/PS3.

 

[Gaborn]

Clearly 3rd party titles sell on the Wii, but the question that faces a 3rd party publisher of a so-called AAA title (i.e., high production costs, high marketing spend) is whether AAA 3rd party titles have as good a chance of getting big sales on the Wii as on the 360/PS3. 3rd party budget titles, taken as a group (and it's a bigger group on Wii, smaller on PS3/360 -- my assumption), contribute heavily to the overall revenue/unit sales on the Wii. Someone earlier talked about 360 consumers as "game-of-the-week" buyers, which is why you see such big numbers for AAA 3rd party releases.

I guess the question I pose is this: For the publishers of AAA 3rd party games (i.e., the games that 90% of GAF care most about), which platform looks more promising -- Wii or 360/PS3?

(Maybe this is an obvious point, but I keep seeing the following inane discussion in these threads:
***
Gaffer 1: 3rd parties on Wii -- lulz.
Gaffer 2: Wii has HUGE 3rd party numbers! Lulz-squared!
Gaffer 1: No wai.
Gaffer 2: Yes wai.
~fin~
***
I think those two Gaffers are talking about different kinds of 3rd party titles.)

I think that for AAA titles, it doesn't matter, whichever system has them they'll be bought. True hardcore gamers care about the quality of the game, not what system it's on.

Now, for AA, or merely "good" games... I think the Wii has shown that it can hold its own, I think that for the most part the PS3 has not, and I think the 360 has shown it's audience won't necessarily (Banjo for example)

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I think the answer is "pretty much anything on the shelves". The Wii sections of the 2-3 GameStop stores I visited between 25 December and 2 January were picked nearly clean, compared to what they normally have. The next week they had more, and last week just a bit more.

I was being facetious based on a discussion from an earlier NPD.