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[jvm]

The NPD figures for 2008 are out, and now so is the article I put together for Gamasutra.

Direct link to Gamasutra article about December 2008 NPD.

Things of possible interest to sales-agers: hardware overview, annual software figures, marketshare estimates for 2007 and 2008.

One graph as a sample:

(Ok, ok. Went back to 2D graphs. OpenOffice rendering is clearly not up to 3D!)

Folks who have read these threads before know that sometimes I get an extra nugget of data from NPD, sometimes not. This is a not month, and that's just how things worked out. I am going to try to pursue my other questions with NPD in the coming week, and I'll let y'all know how it goes. We may still get some figures you were interested in.

As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP. (You'll note the nod to GAF at the end, btw.) Thanks, guys.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007

 

[adelante]

why so much aliasing on the chart...

otherwise, pretty good chart =)

 

[Man God]

It's so bizzare how putting together the data shows these otherworldy numbers for Nintendo.

Half the US market. Most of the growth. Top four games in total revenue.

It's even more bizzare how par for the course this is.

 

[Yoshichan]

That's one professional chart!

 

[FrankT]

Not a bad read. Would have been nice to have a bit more separated data for each respective market, maybe more third party stuff, but overall nothing really new to chew on. Wii and 360 third party sales overall for the year must of been very close. Nintendo touted winning the last two months while we know now the 360 must have taken October (or Nintendo would have said otherwise obviously), and it was up overall before that point from the data we have and best estimates for September for the 360. MS only touted the same more third party sales LTD than the Wii and PS3 combined, but if I had to guess MS got the win as it was up for the most part at the ten month mark, and I would of thought Nintendo would have mentioned otherwise rather than just saying simply the last two months. Regardless, it had to be very close indeed. As for 2009 that will shift a bit more in Nintendo's favor with the ever growing base. It should be interesting to see if MS quotes there SW attach rate in January as well with the lack of inclusion in the PR for December. There PR was actually pretty bare bones compared to the usual even in light of solid sales.

You would think Sony would have actually pulled some kind of real profit this last year with that much share still overall, but alas they have to be still at a pretty good loss on the hardware. Should have a better picture of that in a couple of weeks. Also, it would be interesting to know what MS and Sony are pulling in as far as online dollars year over year on top of all this as well, but of course that ain't happening anytime soon. Oh and the charts eh good stuff, heh.

 

[Pimpbaa]

why so much aliasing on the chart...

Clearly a last gen chart.

 

[markatisu]

Great article, I think this part is of interest to sales agers

The Wii software tie ratio appears to be approaching 6.0 games per system.

With approximately 41 million units of software launch-to-date (LTD), an average 6.0 units of software have been sold per PlayStation 3 system

 

[RSTEIN]

I see Gamasutra has adopted Bungie's design philosophy: sacrifice anti-aliasing for awesome lighting.

 

[jvm]

Thread derailed by ugly graph! :lol

Fixed, guys. Fixed.

 

[PantherLotus]

You should hire a guy that makes charts/graphs!

 

[jvm]

You should hire a guy that makes charts/graphs!

Hire! Ha!

If I had money to pay someone else in this venture, I could spend it on...

 

[Jack B]

The NPD figures for 2008 are out, and now so is the article I put together for Gamasutra.

Direct link to Gamasutra article about December 2008 NPD.

Things of possible interest to sales-agers: hardware overview, annual software figures, marketshare estimates for 2007 and 2008.

One graph as a sample:

(Ok, ok. Went back to 2D graphs. OpenOffice rendering is clearly not up to 3D!)

Folks who have read these threads before know that sometimes I get an extra nugget of data from NPD, sometimes not. This is a not month, and that's just how things worked out. I am going to try to pursue my other questions with NPD in the coming week, and I'll let y'all know how it goes. We may still get some figures you were interested in.

As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP. (You'll note the nod to GAF at the end, btw.) Thanks, guys.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007

It wasn't obvious from the chart, but I think you actually include PSP, DS and PS2 software...

You should do one with Windows, Solitaire and Zune software... ;-)

 

[Lo-Volt]

PowerPoint 2007 does make nice graphs without too much trouble, so don't be afraid of Office Home edition! Thanks for article.

 

[RSTEIN]

jvm, good article as usual.

The lone PlayStation 3 title in the top 10 (and, in fact, in the top 20) was Call of Duty: World at War. Regrettably for Sony's lead platform, sales for the PS3 version dropped more than the Xbox 360 version going from November to December.

For me, the most interesting data point for December was PS3 software. The hardware sales for the 360 and PS3 came in basically at expectations. However, I'm just floored that only one PS3 game managed to crack the top 20.

What's your take on this? Why aren't PS3 owners buying well reviewed PS3 exclusive games such as Resistance 2, LBP, etc? Why are software sales in general for the PS3 so anemic? Why did sales of CoD: WaW drop off for the PS3? Do you have any of your own theories?

 

[jvm]

jvm, good article as usual.

Thanks!

What's your take on this? Why aren't PS3 owners buying well reviewed PS3 exclusive games such as Resistance 2, LBP, etc? Why are software sales in general for the PS3 so anemic? Why did sales of CoD: WaW drop off for the PS3? Do you have any of your own theories?

I wish I had a good explanation. I've pursued some ideas of doing surveys at retail locations, but those have not come to fruition. I think that's pretty much the only way to get an answer to what people are thinking as a large group.

All I really have, however, are anecdotes and the data you all have.

Anecdotally, here's what I've seen. When I go out to stores and browse the videogame aisles, I usually ask people who are obviously looking at a system (Wii, PS3, Xbox 360) why they're considering it. The PS3 responses -- in Wal-mart and Best Buy, two places I know I've spoken to more than one such couple (it's rarely a lone person) -- have almost always been as a Blu-Ray player that oh-yeah-might-play-some-games.

Frankly, I think those people are going to see the PS3 as a Blu-Ray player and the Wii as the game player. It simply doesn't occur to them that they could also play games on the PS3 *instead* of the Wii. Or they already have a son who plays an Xbox 360, so they've got the family gamer taken care of.

But we can all compare anecdotes, I'm sure. That's my experience.

 

[Fredescu]

Incidentally, Mr. Pachter noted that the Wii accounted for 37% of all software dollars in December 2008, surpassing the record set by the PlayStation 2 in December 2003.

I missed that. Wow.

 

[FrankT]

PS3 boils down to probably just a few key issues when it comes to software. The base, cross-over (multi-plat owners), and Blu Ray primary owners. The base itself compared to the Wii and 360 probably hurts it more than anything. Can a base of that size really sustain long legs for games when in fact you have the Wii and 360 already eating up so much in current gen SW sales? At this point for Sony, with the rapid decline of the PS2 SW and HW the software problem is probably almost as much of an issue as is gettting the HW to a break even point for the year. Perhaps they can reach a break even point this year with the HW, although questionable with a serious price cut, but then on top of that how do they sustain better SW sales in the US? It's a pickle no doubt about it.

 

[SickBoy]

Most of my constructive criticisms are of the copy editing variety. A "but" that doesn't seem to work in the discussion of Prince of Persia."

Also, "While the industry may not break $25 billion in annual sales for 2009, given current economic conditions, it seems quite likely that it will do so by the end of 2010."

Really? Explanation would be nice... given the current economic conditions, I would suggest that might be a reach.

Finally, I'll keep reading and keep bitching about it every month you do it: Please for the love of god, don't start sentences with "interestingly"

That is all

 

[Private Hoffman]

Those are some good software sales for Sony based on that chart.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

jvm, good article as usual.

Add my voice to this.

For me, the most interesting data point for December was PS3 software. The hardware sales for the 360 and PS3 came in basically at expectations. However, I'm just floored that only one PS3 game managed to crack the top 20.

What's your take on this? Why aren't PS3 owners buying well reviewed PS3 exclusive games such as Resistance 2, LBP, etc? Why are software sales in general for the PS3 so anemic? Why did sales of CoD: WaW drop off for the PS3? Do you have any of your own theories?

Is there a pattern of multi-platform games underperforming on the PS3? Seems that most big games split not too far from the install bases. And the attach rate for the PS3 isn't that bad if I recall.

Isn't it the exclusives that are harder to explain?

Finally, can we agree that executives that try to explain the fact that their earnings are no good or they are closing a studio on "the current economic environment, be beat to a state of unconsciousness with the following graph?

 

[Gadfly]

Playstation family FTW.

 

[RSTEIN]

Perhaps they can reach a break even point this year with the HW, although questionable with a serious price cut, but then on top of that how do they sustain better SW sales in the US? It's a pickle no doubt about it.

Yeah. It is a pickle. The great games are there. The install base is there now. On paper, the software should be selling! I think software is now a bigger problem than hardware. It suggests a very sick ecosystem. The people who purchased your console aren't motivated to buy games. That's the bottom line. It means developers suffer, multi platform titles suffer, and gamers suffer. It's just not a good thing all around.

 

[Neo C.]

The Wii has an approaching 6.0 tie-ratio? Not bad.

 

[Jonnyram]

You should hire a guy that makes charts/graphs!

If possible that same guy should also have design skills.

 

[Gully State]

I don't get it. The popular perception is that wii owners don't buy anything other than wii sports yet these numbers are contrary to that assertion.

 

[Relix]

Recession my ass

 

[titiklabingapat]

I don't get it. The popular perception is that wii owners don't buy anything other than wii sports yet these numbers are contrary to that assertion.

Where have you been? This perception is about 8 months old and only people who bringd it up are either joking or hasn't spent too much time on GAF "p

 

[Rolf NB]

Thread derailed by ugly graph! :lol

Fixed, guys. Fixed.

Gnumeric charts > Openoffice charts. Ridiculous but true. Fortunately data export/import between these two is easy.

 

[Mindlog]

Finally, can we agree that executives that try to explain the fact that their earnings are no good or they are closing a studio on "the current economic environment, be beat to a state of unconsciousness with the following graph?

http://www.gamasutra.com/db_area/images/feature/3906/historical-revenue-1997-2008.png

I could not possibly agree more. I had to invent several additional levels of additional agreement to reach that state I'm at now.

Actually, I could possibly agree more; However, with the economy being the way it is...

 

[Mario]

Finally, can we agree that executives that try to explain the fact that their earnings are no good or they are closing a studio on "the current economic environment, be beat to a state of unconsciousness with the following graph?

The graph represents a macro view of the industry from a retail perspective. Yes, game sales are up, but the situation is pretty dire for a large proportion of its participants in publishing and development.

The "current economic climate" as it relates to credit, share prices, and the cost of money is negatively affecting publishers' ability to fund development. Sales growth has also softened so longer term projections haven't been reached. They are cutting costs and projects to compensate, which has a significant flow on effect to developers.

When you combine that with other existing fundamental industry issues such as a crowded market, short shelf life, rising costs, quality talent shortages, low margins, and commercial used game sales growing faster than new game sales, its no surprise that earnings are down and studios are closing.

The current economic climate is indeed making a bad situation a lot worse.

 

[ntropy]

Finally, can we agree that executives that try to explain the fact that their earnings are no good or they are closing a studio on "the current economic environment, be beat to a state of unconsciousness with the following graph?

Explanation: didn't hop in the Nintendo jansport.

 

[Pachael]

If possible that same guy should also have design skills.

And comprehension skills, but that's more jvm's job.

 

[Burai]

Finally, can we agree that executives that try to explain the fact that their earnings are no good or they are closing a studio on "the current economic environment, be beat to a state of unconsciousness with the following graph?

It's just not that simple. Many businesses are run rather close to the edge when it comes to funding, particularly small developers who just don't have vast resources to fall back on. All it takes is one delayed game, one flop, one publisher who cancels your game halfway through, one publishing deal with really unfavourable conditions or one bank that wants it's loan back and at a time like this you're staring into oblivion.

Just because there's 21.3billion dollars floating about, it doesn't mean that everyone gets a fair share.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I don't get it. The popular perception is that wii owners don't buy anything other than wii sports yet these numbers are contrary to that assertion.

People are fond of denial.

 

[Cipherr]

Some well-known games did not make the top 10 or even the top 20 for December. In particular, Ubisoft's Prince of Persia did break into the individual platform top 10 lists for the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360. But it did not sell well enough on a single platform to crack the all-format top 20. (According to Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan, the game performed nearly twice as well as his 250,000 unit expectations for the month.)

Gaf does the bolded tell us anything that we can use to find out how much the games in places 11-20 sold? If POP did damn near 500k then the positions of the top 20 are clouding my view again, 400k+ aint half bad, and would mean that missing games like LBP and POP from the top 20 is misleading, because perhaps 11 - 20 all sold 400k+ or so.

Or maybe Im reading it wrong, whatever. But damn Shawn White and CoD Wii would have done real well if that were the case.

 

[Fuzzy]

Gaf does the bolded tell us anything that we can use to find out how much the games in places 11-20 sold? If POP did damn near 500k then the positions of the top 20 are clouding my view again, 400k+ aint half bad, and would mean that missing games like LBP and POP from the top 20 is misleading, because perhaps 11 - 20 all sold 400k+ or so.

Or maybe Im reading it wrong, whatever. But damn Shawn White and CoD Wii would have done real well if that were the case.

Isn't that saying the combined PoP number is just under 500K?

 

[Shurs]

jvm, good article as usual.



For me, the most interesting data point for December was PS3 software. The hardware sales for the 360 and PS3 came in basically at expectations. However, I'm just floored that only one PS3 game managed to crack the top 20.

What's your take on this? Why aren't PS3 owners buying well reviewed PS3 exclusive games such as Resistance 2, LBP, etc? Why are software sales in general for the PS3 so anemic? Why did sales of CoD: WaW drop off for the PS3? Do you have any of your own theories?

360 has twice the user base of the PS3 but sold less than twice as many pieces of software this year.

According to the article, 360 owners bought 48-49 million pieces of software and PS3 owners bought 27 million pieces of software. Individual PS3 owners bought more software for their consoles this year than individual 360 owners bought for theirs.

 

[PantherLotus]

That honestly hurt my feelings jonnyram.

 

[Opiate]

The graph represents a macro view of the industry from a retail perspective. Yes, game sales are up, but the situation is pretty dire for a large proportion of its participants in publishing and development.

The "current economic climate" as it relates to credit, share prices, and the cost of money is negatively affecting publishers' ability to fund development. Sales growth has also softened so longer term projections haven't been reached. They are cutting costs and projects to compensate, which has a significant flow on effect to developers.

When you combine that with other existing fundamental industry issues such as a crowded market, short shelf life, rising costs, quality talent shortages, low margins, and commercial used game sales growing faster than new game sales, its no surprise that earnings are down and studios are closing.

The current economic climate is indeed making a bad situation a lot worse.

I think most people (although not all) agree that the current climate is making things worse, Mario.

I think what most of us are arguing is that things were already very poorly run even before the current economic climate manifested itself -- which, based on your wording in this post, you agree with.

Recessive eras highlight the flaws in poor management. For example, it appears that many publishers were not simply hoping for strong continued growth in the industry, but relying on it to meet their goals. One could generously refer to this as "risky" or even "cavalier" business policy, but would more realistically be considered "bad."

The difference between good management and bad can be seen in a companies like General Motors and Toyota: I would argue that the auto industry is likely the worst hit by the recent recession, and it isn't a surprise that both companies are losing money. However, Toyota (Despite the added burden of the strong Yen that GM does not have to contend with) is only losing ~1 billion a year, and could survive at that rate for nearly half a century: General Motors is apparently burning through several billion a month and may go under without government intervention within the year. The distinctions between the company's management were already apparent before the crisis hit -- the recession simply exacerbated them. The same principles can be applied to the gaming industry. The well run companies had already prepared for these types of eventualities and are prepared to weather the storm. The poorly ones runs are already closing.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Isn't that saying the combined PoP number is just under 500K?

Sounds like it.

 

[Nocebo]

I don't get it. The popular perception is that wii owners don't buy anything other than wii sports yet these numbers are contrary to that assertion.

Usually people who say those things don't care about the wii or any news surrounding the wii nor do they care about sales data. The perception that the wii is only bought for wiisports was formed early on to dismiss the wii's success.

Since people don't care to read up on things they're stuck with the early perception only solidified by those kinds of people surrounding themselves with people who have the same perception. Aside from that people don't generally take anything beyond the NPD top 10 into consideration when making these kinds of statements.

 

[Cipherr]

Isn't that saying the combined PoP number is just under 500K?

Yep there we go, I forgot about the multiple SKU's

 

[Rolf NB]

360 has twice the user base of the PS3 but sold less than twice as many pieces of software this year.

According to the article, 360 owners bought 48-49 million pieces of software and PS3 owners bought 27 million pieces of software. Individual PS3 owners bought more software for their consoles this year than individual 360 owners bought for theirs.

PS3: a beast.

 

[PikaBitca]

Yep there we go, I forgot about the multiple SKU's

We still might be able to make a very rough guestimate. If we take the usual 2:1 ratio of Xbox to PS3 multiplatform game sales, then POP 360 sold around 330,000 copies. I reckon that is a very reasonable number. And since neither version of POP charted, it's safe to say that the top 20 sold more than 330,000 units.

Even if we divide the POP platform sales in half, we can safely say that the top 20 sold more than 250,000 units.

Which is awesome for the likes of Shaun White and COD Wii.

 

[Chumly]

We still might be able to make a very rough guestimate. If we take the usual 2:1 ratio of Xbox to PS3 multiplatform game sales, then POP 360 sold around 330,000 copies. I reckon that is a very reasonable number. And since neither version of POP charted, it's safe to say that the top 20 sold more than 330,000 units.

Even if we divide the POP platform sales in half, we can safely say that the top 20 sold more than 250,000 units.

Which is awesome for the likes of Shaun White and COD Wii.

Here is the xbox top 10 for december

Top 10 Xbox 360 Games
01. [360] Call of Duty: World at War* (Activision Blizzard) - 1330k
02. [360] Gears of War 2* (Microsoft) - 745k
03. [360] Left 4 Dead (Electronic Arts) - 629k
04. [360] Fallout 3* (Bethesda Softworks)
05. [360] Madden NFL 09* (Electronic Arts)
06. [360] Guitar Hero World Tour* (Activision Blizzard)
07. [360] Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe* (Midway)
08. [360] Rock Band 2* (MTV Games/Electronic Arts)
09. [360] Fable II* (Microsoft)
10. [360] Prince of Persia* (Ubisoft)

Madden was ranked #18 overall so we know

06. [360] Guitar Hero World Tour* (Activision Blizzard)
07. [360] Mortal Kombat vs. DC Universe* (Midway)
08. [360] Rock Band 2* (MTV Games/Electronic Arts)
09. [360] Fable II* (Microsoft)

are all ahead of prince of persia
We also know that 7 titles ranked 21-30 are Wii/DS games and since theres at least 4 games ahead of POP on the 360 list we know that at the bare minimum the top 32 sold over 250k (or more like 300k since 360 versions sell better).

 

[Private Hoffman]

Gaf does the bolded tell us anything that we can use to find out how much the games in places 11-20 sold? If POP did damn near 500k then the positions of the top 20 are clouding my view again, 400k+ aint half bad, and would mean that missing games like LBP and POP from the top 20 is misleading, because perhaps 11 - 20 all sold 400k+ or so.

Or maybe Im reading it wrong, whatever. But damn Shawn White and CoD Wii would have done real well if that were the case.

It's an interesting statistic. Assuming PoP did 500k total, then that's about 166k on the PS3 version and 333k on the 360 version (assuming a 1:2 ratio).

This tells us that LBP likely sold over 166k, which would bring US LTD sales of LBP to > 500k.

 

[Private Hoffman]

360 has twice the user base of the PS3 but sold less than twice as many pieces of software this year.

According to the article, 360 owners bought 48-49 million pieces of software and PS3 owners bought 27 million pieces of software. Individual PS3 owners bought more software for their consoles this year than individual 360 owners bought for theirs.

I'm curious if the software sales graph is for worldwide sales.

Because we do know that the PS3 is in a much better position (relative to the 360) in Europe than it is in America, not to mention the PS3 doing considerably better in Japan.

Plus, those software sales also include PSP (even if it's dismal...) and PS2 (even if it's pretty much dying/dead at this point).

Nonetheless, the notion that PS3 games don't sell is shortsighted and not necessarily true from a global perspective, and is only skewed by the US charts that many people seem to focus on.

 

[Chumly]

The Wii software tie ratio appears to be approaching 6.0 games per system. Incidentally, Mr. Pachter noted that the Wii accounted for 37% of all software dollars in December 2008, surpassing the record set by the PlayStation 2 in December 2003.

Video game software in december was $2.39B
2.39B * .37 = 884300000
Average price of Wii game-----Total software units sold in december
$50=17.686M
$45=19.651M
$40=22.107M
$35=25.265M


I would suspect that the Wii sold just over 20 million copies of software in december

 

[Dalthien]

Even if we divide the POP platform sales in half, we can safely say that the top 20 sold more than 250,000 units.

Keep in mind the actual statement was that POP sales were nearly double the expected number of 250k. In this context, nearly double could have a fairly wide range. It is safe to say that it wasn't any higher than 500k, but the low end might even be as low as 400k. He would be unlikely to say that sales were 1.6 times his expectations. He would just say they were almost double. So anywhere from 400k - 500k would probably be feasible based upon Pachter's comment.

Having said that, it is also likely that the 360 version sold more than the PS3 version, so that starts to push the minimum 360 POP sales back up towards 250k anyway.

 

[Version 3.0]

360 has twice the user base of the PS3 but sold less than twice as many pieces of software this year.

According to the article, 360 owners bought 48-49 million pieces of software and PS3 owners bought 27 million pieces of software. Individual PS3 owners bought more software for their consoles this year than individual 360 owners bought for theirs.

That's an unexpected statistic, given the constant talking point about how great software sales are on the 360.

I've long hypothesized that the 360 has great sales of top games, and not all that much of "the rest". I call it the "game of the month", or, more accurately, "games of the month". 360 owners seems to fixate on one game at a time and then quickly move on to the next one. Maybe it's because of the community there.

Not that it matters all that much: better sales are better sales. If a movie does $100 million, the studio probably doesn't much care whether that was on 5,000 screens or 10,000.

But let's not forget the Wii. It did better than both of the others in this statistic. Using year-end install base numbers vs. this article's annual unit software sales, this is what we get:

Xbox 360: 3.54 games per system
Playstation 3: 3.97 games per system
Wii: 3.99 games per system

And one more flip: using just 2008's hardware sales vs. software sales, the statistic is reversed. It comes to:

Xbox 360: 10.35 games per system
Playstation 3: 7.61 games per system
Wii: 6.88 games per system

So what's happening? Have 'older' owners bored of their console while new buyers buy more games? Or are hardcore launch buyers still buying everything, while newer buyers only play one or two games? Who knows? I'm sure many would say the former is true of the Wii, while the latter is true of the 360, but I could make a case for the opposite.