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Digital Foundry - In Theory: Could Sony release PlayStation 5 in 2018?
- Thread starter Vashetti
- Start date
I know, you are correct.
I think PS5 and a future Xbox will be built around AMD's concept "Exascale MEGA APU", a testbed which was described in an academic paper not that long ago.
linkage:
http://www.computermachines.org/joe/publications/pdfs/hpca2017_exascale_apu.pdf
http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/CCDSC-2016/slides/talk05-brantley.pdf
https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/5vdin8/amd_reveals_a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic/
https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cp...a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic_paper/1
The Processor In Memory (PIM) is also really interesting.
Imagine PS4 being PS1, a fresh start and very, very easy to program/develop for. PS5 should share the same basic architectures (x86 CPU, AMD GPU) but increase performance as much as possible, and be directly back compatible with all current physical and digital games that run on PS4 / PS4 Pro.
.
I could see this being a good solution for a Pro version of the PS5.I know, you are correct.
I think PS5 and a future Xbox will be built around AMD's concept "Exascale MEGA APU", a testbed which was described in an academic paper not that long ago.
linkage:
http://www.computermachines.org/joe/publications/pdfs/hpca2017_exascale_apu.pdf
http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/CCDSC-2016/slides/talk05-brantley.pdf
https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/5vdin8/amd_reveals_a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic/
https://www.overclock3d.net/news/cp...a_exascale_mega_apu_in_a_new_academic_paper/1
.
Melchiah
Member
The same could be said about every generation. A friend of mine bought a PS3 in 2011/2012, and was disappointed that the PS4 was released so soon after that. It only goes to show, that personal purchase dates can't be used as a metric.
how about ps5 as a platform includes both a 720p/1080p portable and a 4k/8k home console ? Same base architecture of the APU but different power envelopes . Developers need to target the portable version first and then scale the game to 4k on home console variant . Portable one replaces base ps4 with a dock for lower resolution TVs and Home console goes premium . Home Console does ps4 backwards compatibility .
Melchiah
Member
Pro came out three years after the original though, not two.
Mobile tech isn't anywhere near the point of doing PS4-level stuff without burning through a battery in 10 minutes and/or overheating.
That sounds needlessly complicated and makes no sense, as it handicaps the PS5's abilities.
I think people are going to have to deal with the fact that Nintendo owns the handheld space and there's nothing Sony could do about it.
Nintendo hit it out of the park with the Switch basic concept of melding their handheld and portable visions together despite early skepticism.
Taking the resolution No.s and xbox one s and scorpio compute capabilities(same games running on similar settings with resolution as a variable) .... doing some rough math
1st estimation
4K - 6 TF
720p - 0.66 TF
2nd estimation
1080P - 1.3TF
720P - 0.58TF
Say we get around 0.7-0.8 TF with new architectural improvements and minimum of 2.5-3hrs of battery life , Can't sony pull a playstation portable in a mid sized tablet formfactor ?
1st estimation
4K - 6 TF
720p - 0.66 TF
2nd estimation
1080P - 1.3TF
720P - 0.58TF
Say we get around 0.7-0.8 TF with new architectural improvements and minimum of 2.5-3hrs of battery life , Can't sony pull a playstation portable in a mid sized tablet formfactor ?
Sony is done in the handheld space man, just let it go.
I love(d) my Vita, but Sony just won't devote the first party resources to it.
If you want a handheld, stick with Nintendo.
Black_Wolf
Neo Member
Maybe, and technological advancement is always good, but on a more practical side, these current consoles have barely started establishing their footing yet. I mean, the PS4 came out in 2013, and it wasn't until 2015 that we saw true next gen games come out (i.e. not cross-gen games that clearly weren't fully utilizing the power of the new hardware). The same could be said about the Xbox.
Early adopters will jump on board all the same, but most people I know buy systems for mileage, and I don't think that two years of "true next gen" is enough for people to feel like they got a return on their investment and hop onto another system (which will go through the same initial year or two of "drought").
Early adopters will jump on board all the same, but most people I know buy systems for mileage, and I don't think that two years of "true next gen" is enough for people to feel like they got a return on their investment and hop onto another system (which will go through the same initial year or two of "drought").
Black_Wolf
Neo Member
It's not really arbitrary - we were getting remasters and cross-gen games that did little to take advantage of the new hardware for the better part of the first year or two of this generation. Things didn't really start picking up until a couple of years into the generation.
Most people that I know / are within my network aren't going to willingly hop onto another console in a year because they don't feel they've gotten enough out of this generation yet.
Most people that I know / are within my network aren't going to willingly hop onto another console in a year because they don't feel they've gotten enough out of this generation yet.
The Artisan
Member
Ps4's momentum would be severely slowed down if its successor released next year or even 2019. So if Ps5 did release this early, Ps4's 100m mark would take a very long time.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
With iterative consoles released like iPhones you could see things never really pick up :/... let's hope they stop at this current console, console 1.5, console 2, console 2.5, etc... cadence... any more frequent and we will get far too long cross generation periods...
Head.spawn
Junior Member
As long as it plays PS4 games, I'm good.
Fredrik
Member
Yeah I really don't like this upgrade trend. Makes it feel dumb to go in day 1 because if you wait 2-3 years you know you'll get much more for your money, but if you go in LTTP at the Pro launch you'll soon start to worry about how far off the next generation is which will be even better.
I used to like consoles because you knew you would have the best hardware there is for the exclusives for the next 5-7 years.
Now it feels like I'm playing the waiting game just like with PC tech. Do I buy now or do I wait and buy the next hardware?
I don't have a Pro yet and with the current talk about PS5 it seems better to wait, but when PS5 is out maybe it's better to wait for PS5Pro instead? *sigh*
Pick a cycle to stick to:
i.e. PS4 > PS5
or PS4 Pro > PS5 Pro
as (some) people do currently with iPhones
i.e. iPhone 6 > iPhone 7
or iPhone 6s > iPhone 7s
skip the middle releases of your chosen cycle
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
What is worst is that you would be pretty much guaranteed software that does. It take advantage of the system features until more and more years down the line depending on how frequently systems are released (and by then actually the latest console may still be better at playing the game in question as it smooths out the framerate/glitches that came with developers pushing a legacy platform harder when the users are starting to transition off too).
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
Cross generation titles period lengthening and software not taking advantage of generations (Sony at least is sticking to generations luckily
) does not have anything to do with how you decide to upgrade on phones. The day you buy your latest iPhone is not the day you and the third party apps you rely on make the most out of it...Oh, I skipped a lot more iPhones than that. In fact, I skipped all of them!
Consoles are not exactly like smartphones, game development works different, too. They are much more specialized to games, the games are much more optimized exactly to the specific device.
What you describe matches PC gaming a lot better, skipping every other graphics card generation.
I honestly can't see 2018 as a reasonable window to release a new generation of consoles. Like many others who have said the same; I feel like we still have yet to see some of the best games the current systems have to offer. 2020 seems more reasonable somehow...wait PS4 came out in 2013? Has it really been that long already?
Shin
Banned
Haha this is what stood out when I re-read it last night, he knows very well what's wrong with the current consoles.
Another interesting thing is that he specifically said that a 8TF machine wouldn't be viable this year cost wise.
Wallstreet Journal ran with the quote from Damian Thong, AFAIK WSJ is a reputable site that doesn't run articles without having multiple sources and/or considered trustworthy.
Man, I hope not. This is the first generation I remember (I've been gaming since Atari 2600) where I wish manufacturers would take a knee and slow down the cycles for a few more years.
I just don't see a need or a reason. Game dev tools have been democratizing over the past few years (Unity, etc.) which has flattened the tech leaps. And even those games that do push the tech boundaries seem to be hitting diminishing returns. It's simply too expensive and time consuming for dev studios to push the tech too far at this point. Absent some new UI gimmick, I think they should ride this out as far as possible.
I just don't see a need or a reason. Game dev tools have been democratizing over the past few years (Unity, etc.) which has flattened the tech leaps. And even those games that do push the tech boundaries seem to be hitting diminishing returns. It's simply too expensive and time consuming for dev studios to push the tech too far at this point. Absent some new UI gimmick, I think they should ride this out as far as possible.
Negotiator
Member
SIMD-wise, yes (more flops). MIPS-wise, no. Cell has worse single-threaded performance, despite the frequency advantage...
If Jaguar could run at 3.2 GHz, it would easily surpass Cell in everything. It could even allow 60 fps gaming (as long as 30 fps games were made with Jaguar @ 1.6 GHz in mind).
Negotiator
Member
https://www.engadget.com/2017/06/05/ibm-5nm-chip-manufacturing/
30 billion transistors into a fingernail-sized chip... they could do wonders with that lithography.
30 billion transistors into a fingernail-sized chip... they could do wonders with that lithography.
Souldestroyer Reborn
Banned
I think this is/should be the minimum they aim for. Anything less is a failure.
And go back to IBM and separate GPU? I donno.....
Seeing how cheap Ryzen is vs Intel chips, it should be Ryzen. Easily.
Next gen is gonna be nice. They could probably ride with Ryzen for many, many years.
GlobalFoundaries is one of the partners.
LukasTaves
Member
Instead of providing full BC, something that the executive in OP said to be a waste of time, you are proposing an even costlier solution of creating ports for each individual game. That's even more likely to not be supported, unless there's extreme demand for it.
And the further enhancements you talk about are already supported on Xbox with UWP, developers can already create games that go past the performance of Scorpio for when the next Xbox arrives they already run better. That also has a better chance of being supported while the game is being developed (specially since it might have a PC version that's ahead of any console anyway)
I know that comment doesn't straight up means that Ps5 isn't going to be BC, but we also must consider that Sony couldn't even expose the full gpu upgrade to PS4 games, the boost mode exposes only the newer clocks (and even that was after a few months of development to get it running). So chances are, if Ps5 is a technology breakthrough from Pro, for instance having Zen, chances are BC are a no go. (They even have a patent for a chip disabling new stuff for not breaking compatibility that tells a lot on how Pro was developed with that goal in mind, but imagine a Ps5 being hold back by the silicon needed to support Ps4 games, versus a new xbox that Ms can go all bonkers on the hardware because the games will run anyway?)
So, with the state of Ps4 development, that apparently is super tied to the hardware, that declaration for Cerny, and now this it's adding up evidence that Sony does not plan to offer BC for Ps4 on Ps5, or it's not viable for them to do so, or they don't want to spent the resources needed for it
(Though I believe that Ps5 going forward will be engineered so games are fully compatible).
Shin
Banned
If they stick with AMD and that's very likely I'd say it will be Ryzen2+ or 3 (if it launches 2019).
The big question is are they going to cheap out on the CPU and go with the mobile version to save cost/power or will they use a desktop version in a APU.
The CPU/GPU in PS3 and PS4 amounted for about $100 in 2009/2013 respectively (just random information but CPU/GPU and RAM are the biggest cost).
Could probably figure the theoretical bandwidth of the system (assuming they use GDDR6, because let's be real every manufacturer is pushing that instead of HBM).
1.35v with stacks of 8Gb (32GB total) that's somewhere around 1280 - 1792Gb/s on a 768 or 1024-bit bus (Scorpio is pushing GDDR5 12x1Gb at -28GB/s --> 326Gb/s on 384-bit)
You beat me to it!
Wow, this is what the industry needs, but I don't think it could happen for consoles until 2021 at the very soonest. Probably 2022.
More here:
IBM Shows The World How To Build A Super Dense 5-Nanometer Chip
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2017/06/05/ibm-5nm-chips/#39625f3c5614
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Although this all sounds great I just can't see it being realistic (I hate being the party pooper that keeps repeating myself!)
There is no way I can see a desktop CPU being used. PS4 and PS4 Pro have APUs that I guess have a TDP of ~75W (both use ~150-160W max at the wall for the system). Even cut down desktop Ryzen (2+ or 3) would use 50W alone and take up a lot more die space that could be used for more GPU.
No future PS5 will go above 200W at the wall IMO so I say an APU with Ryzen Mobile-based cores.
Shin
Banned
Not sure, current generation of a desktop Ryzen 5 and 7 has a TDP of 65w up to 95w respectively and that's on 14nm.
PS4's CPU 16nm? with a 25w draw plus old architecture and all that, regarding the size it would take up that I fully agree with.
Interestingly enough AMD doesn't state that Zen 2/3 will be more power efficient, instead this is what's down the road: http://hexus.net/media/uploaded/2017/5/5444308a-97e7-4221-a84a-0c7031a6579f.jpg
Interestingly enough, Ryzen Mobile Pro is slated for 1H 2018 (realistically it would make more sense, there's no denying that): http://static.trustedreviews.com/94/00003e295/90a0_orh616w616/ryzen-roadmap.jpg
Pass, I'm hoping PS4 continues to build momentum in improving the quality of their games, quality of hardware should improve once we see breakthrough tech at reasonable cost. I already see the Scorpio as a reflection of Microsoft's failure of handling the Xbox One IPs
I'm hoping for a 2021 release at the earliest, wouldn't mind 2020 as well
I'm hoping for a 2021 release at the earliest, wouldn't mind 2020 as well
biggersmaller
Banned
Yup. A bump in fidelity needs to be substantial to the average consumer for any new platform to be considered a smart move.
Just look at the 4K Ultra HD Blu Ray market to understand why.
PS5's GPU can't be less than 12 TFLOPS, minimum. Double that of Scorpio. Otherwise, it won't really be worth it. Especially if PS5 doesn't get released until Holiday 2020. It's not just about hitting native 4K consistently, it's about a generational leap in graphic fidelity, and 8-10 TFLOPs doesn't leave much over for improving graphics over the current gen, while also doing native 4K at the same time. I know an 8-core/16-thread mobile RyZen CPU would be an absolutely massive improvement over Jaguar, but CPU has to improve no matter what, but I feel the GPU needs to be 12 TF+
I do not expect Sony to rapid-fire release more consoles every ~3 years. i.e. PS4 Ultra in 2019, PlayStation 5 in 2022, PS5 Pro in 2025.
I do not expect Sony to rapid-fire release more consoles every ~3 years. i.e. PS4 Ultra in 2019, PlayStation 5 in 2022, PS5 Pro in 2025.
All this future tech is cool. However those gains will still be there in 2023/24/25 and the processes will be more mature. So why not just release a generational update with a new CPU +6-8TF GPU in 2018/19. Release a Pro model GPU updated version in 2021/22, and then look at launching the PS6 in 2024/25
An updated CPU would do wonders for moving tech in games forward.
An updated CPU would do wonders for moving tech in games forward.
Even in 2020 your going to have to cut down on resolution to hit whatever next gen graphical targets are.
Its just too hardware intensive to expect a 4x increase in pixel density as well as next gen graphics on top of that. Many games on PC even on the top end HW get maxed out just by adding 4K resolution and some higher graphical settings to console level games
Electret
Member
I've advocated for that as well. I would be more than content if devs - e.g., Sony's first parties - embraced a refined checkerboard rendering implementation (or the like) in lieu of native 4K on PS5. The boost in image quality going from good CBR to native 4K is not worth the resources it requires. Spend the resources you save elsewhere where they can make a much bigger impact - volumetric particles, global illumination, soft-body physics, etc.
PLASTICA-MAN
Member
What is this "discrete" GPU: http://www.tweaktown.com/news/57845/playstation-5-feature-full-discrete-gpu-apu/index.html ?
this says there is going to be a separate GPU and a separate CPU on the motherboard which automatically disqualifies its validity. APU configurations are the only way forward for consoles
What if Cerny and Kutaragi teamed up on PS5 ?
Sony execs nearly shit the bed when Project Scorpio was announced. Any work already started on PS5 for 2019 was scrapped. Kutaragi called in to lend assistance.
-PlayStation Final- - Announce in early 2021 - release Fall 2021.
CPU AMD mobile Zen² based Threadripper - 16c/32t @ 3.4 GHz
AMD 'Next Gen' Radeon GPU (one gpu architecture beyond Navi). 24 TFLOPs
(4x the raw performance of Scorpio not counting architectural advancements beyond Polaris & Vega).
Samsung 64GB HBM3 / 2TB/sec bandwidth.
IBM / GLOBALFOUNDRIES 5nm GAAFET process using Extreme Ultraviolet lithography
8K video / 4K and 8K ultra HD Blu-ray (and native 4K video games)
300GB discs (based on the smallest version of Sony/Panasonic "Archival Discs" which will go to 3+TB
controller will be the new human interface that Kutaragi has been working on, will work with and without next gen PSVR.
It's PlayStation Final because silicon won't be able to advance enough beyond 5nm to make another huge difference.
In time (2025 - 2030) PlayStation will transition to "games as a service" where developers can stream games that run on multi PSFinal racks to deliver true CG-quality games. First up will be Square Enix Final Fantasy XVII (in 2030).
Price? $---.99 Not final. TBA.
lol.
Sony execs nearly shit the bed when Project Scorpio was announced. Any work already started on PS5 for 2019 was scrapped. Kutaragi called in to lend assistance.
-PlayStation Final- - Announce in early 2021 - release Fall 2021.
CPU AMD mobile Zen² based Threadripper - 16c/32t @ 3.4 GHz
AMD 'Next Gen' Radeon GPU (one gpu architecture beyond Navi). 24 TFLOPs
(4x the raw performance of Scorpio not counting architectural advancements beyond Polaris & Vega).
Samsung 64GB HBM3 / 2TB/sec bandwidth.
IBM / GLOBALFOUNDRIES 5nm GAAFET process using Extreme Ultraviolet lithography
8K video / 4K and 8K ultra HD Blu-ray (and native 4K video games)
300GB discs (based on the smallest version of Sony/Panasonic "Archival Discs" which will go to 3+TB
controller will be the new human interface that Kutaragi has been working on, will work with and without next gen PSVR.
It's PlayStation Final because silicon won't be able to advance enough beyond 5nm to make another huge difference.
In time (2025 - 2030) PlayStation will transition to "games as a service" where developers can stream games that run on multi PSFinal racks to deliver true CG-quality games. First up will be Square Enix Final Fantasy XVII (in 2030).
Price? $---.99 Not final. TBA.
lol.
Negotiator
Member
Not true:
http://wccftech.com/amd-gray-hawk-zen-7nm-apu/
A quad-core Zen module (CCX) will consume 10 watts @ 7nm.
They could easily fit 12 Zen cores (3 modules) at the same power envelope/TDP of octa-core Jaguar @ 28nm (30 watts).
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