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Digital Foundry - In Theory: Could Sony release PlayStation 5 in 2018?

Vashetti

Banned
If Sony releases a PS4 Pro+ under the name of PS5, I would be majorly disappointed. If they do so and fail to make it backward compatible, I would be done with PlayStation.

Backwards compatibility is here to stay now, at least in the PS and Xbox ecosystems.

They want to lock you in. If all your digital purchases carry forward/discs still work on the new device, you're much less likely to switch to the competitor.
 

AmyS

Member
Ps4 and Xbone are already APUs, saying that the next consoles will use APU means nothing if you want certain performance you always have to occupy a certain amount of area on the die regardless on how you want to call it CPU, GPU or APU.

You completely missed the point. I know PS4/Xbone already use APUs.

The future gen of AMD systems are going to be different. Not using a single chip, not limited to what can be reasonably put on a single piece of silicon. Using a number of smaller chips each made separately and connected together on a package, a Multi-Chip Module or 'Mega APU' or whatever you want to call it. The name of the type of chip is not important. The whole package isn't manufactured on one chip so it'll be easier to make rather than wasting lots of money on bad yields with massive chips.

The term APU doesn't mean anything in this case. It's no longer going to be just a single piece of silicon with CPU and GPU on one chip like present APUs.


Process node roadmap are slooooooow and each gain are worse than the precedent, if the trends continues you won't get that far.

That is exactly why AMD is going to do this new way of making computing systems.

Also in my opinion the next round of things the cpu in the apu might need more die area to have a balanced system so that means less space for the gpu and therefore needs to be more efficient than usual to reach the same levels.

That is precisely what AMD is hoping to negate, and get around, with their future computing systems as described in that paper.

A system of small CPU chiplets and GPU chiplets put together in a package with high bandwidth stacked DRAM.

The main challenge is the interconnects / interposer, etc. Not making chips that push the limits of transistors on 1 die space.
 

IC5

Member
The PS4/-Pro hasn't even teethed
Exactly.

Indeed, Scorpio will be more powerful. But pro has plenty of headroom to use for a couple of years.

Which would give Sony and AMD time to R and D a proper PS5, with mature hardware.
 
Aren't dev cycles too long nowadays for 5yr generations?

Yep you are giving AAA developers time to release at most like 2 games on a system.

With the addition of Pro and the incoming Scorpio are people even tired of this generation? I might be a little biased as someone with a 1080p tv but I don't feel nearly as exhausted with this gen as I did with last gen this point in. When 4k adoptions starts to skyrocket in the coming years as people replace their tvs that they bought back in 2006-2010, it will be time for consoles that can reach that level with more fidelity.
 
2018 with only a 1.9x power increase over the Pro? I definitely wouldn't buy day 1 if that were the case.

2019 at the earliest or even 2020 and blow the PS4 out of the water. With the Pro a 2018 release just doesn't make any sense. Unless it were just another PS4 Pro+.
 

Fredrik

Member
I think it may happen.
Scorpio will push Sony to jump start next gen faster than planned. Someone mentioned in another thread that Shinobi had said that E3 would be a blood bath for MS, hinting on some kind of megaton from Sony, a "PS5 is coming!" video similar to MSs Scorpio video last year would be that.

I hope it won't happen though. Some first party devs haven't even released their first wave PS4 titles yet.
 

TyrantII

Member
I would fully welcome a return to the 5-6 year console cycle. The 7-8 years of last gen was just too long.


I like games, not new shelf coasters.

While X86 helps, the best games again are those coded to the metal and we're seeing 3-4 year dev cycles.

I don't want console platforms with 1 major release a generation. I'm fine with focusing on games over new underutilized tech.
 

Kevdo

Member
I guess it's possible, but I'd be really surprised if they did. Could PS4Pro and PS5 really exist alongside each other? Pretty sure nobody would buy a Pro if there's a new gen out.
 

Shin

Banned
I think it may happen.
Scorpio will push Sony to jump start next gen faster than planned. Someone mentioned in another thread that Shinobi had said that E3 would be a blood bath for MS, hinting on some kind of megaton from Sony, a "PS5 is coming!" video similar to MSs Scorpio video last year would be that.

I hope it won't happen though. Some first party devs haven't even released their first wave PS4 titles yet.

Got a link? Now I'm curious as to what this is about.
 

LeleSocho

Banned
You completely missed the point. I know PS4/Xbone already use APUs.

The future gen of AMD systems are going to be different. Not using a single chip, not limited to what can be reasonably put on a single piece of silicon. Using a number of smaller chips each made separately and connected together on a package, a Multi-Chip Module or 'Mega APU' or whatever you want to call it. The name of the type of chip is not important. The whole package isn't manufactured on one chip so it'll be easier to make rather than wasting lots of money on bad yields with massive chips.

The term APU doesn't mean anything in this case. It's no longer going to be just a single piece of silicon with CPU and GPU on one chip like present APUs.




That is exactly why AMD is going to do this new way of making computing systems.



That is exactly what AMD's future computing systems hope to negate and get around.
A system of small CPU chiplets and GPU chiplets put together in a package with high bandwidth stacked DRAM.

The main challenge is the interconnects / interposer, etc. Not making chips that push the limits of transistors on 1 die space.
Oh yeah i missed the point, my bad didn't understand you were talking about MCM kinda stuff.
In any case you would still have thermal issues in adding all those if you go with MCM so not all problems would be solved.
 

Averon

Member
No PS5 is happening until AMD and Global Foundries can mass manufacture 7nm APUs. That probably not gonna happen until 2019 at the earliest.
 
I think it may happen.
Scorpio will push Sony to jump start next gen faster than planned. Someone mentioned in another thread that Shinobi had said that E3 would be a blood bath for MS, hinting on some kind of megaton from Sony, a "PS5 is coming!" video similar to MSs Scorpio video last year would be that.

I hope it won't happen though. Some first party devs haven't even released their first wave PS4 titles yet.

Any receipts for that Shinobi quote? Maybe it's more about software.
 

mas8705

Member
Could have sworn that I posted on something like this the other week...

Honestly with the PS4 Pro that just got released, they would be pissing off a good amount of their fanbase to say "PS5 coming soon!" At least with Microsoft, they didn't hesitate to mention how besides the Scorpio, the other system was going to come out before hand as if to tell people that if they didn't want to look into the Scorpio, there is another option. Of course, Sony did that too with the Slim and the Pro, but it would be a bit of a slap to then immediately say that the next version of the playstation is coming, thus making the PS4 feel obsolete in comparison.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I would like someone to say 1 reason for Sony to release PS5 in 2018. Just 1.

It's always just PC gamers wanting a shift before the console has a good, long life.

Actual consumers of Sony consoles are not broadly interested, especially after they did a mid-gen refresh, and that's what Sony looks at.
 
Yep you are giving AAA developers time to release at most like 2 games on a system.

With the addition of Pro and the incoming Scorpio are people even tired of this generation? I might be a little biased as someone with a 1080p tv but I don't feel nearly as exhausted with this gen as I did with last gen this point in. When 4k adoptions starts to skyrocket in the coming years as people replace their tvs that they bought back in 2006-2010, it will be time for consoles that can reach that level with more fidelity.
With how new games sell on hardware I don't think they mind. Half of the day one games will have last gen ports anyways.

You can still sell more of some games on launch than you can to an installed base.

More games will just have last and new gen ports such as kh3. I don't see a big deal as what is being said in this thread.

The idea of needing more time with your box before the new one is here isnt a reason to me. You can pick up the box on launch or wait a few years of need be. Thats up to the individual.

New hardware will be gladly accepted certain age demographics as well.

Every year someone turns fourteen and that is a potential age range and customer former hardware


I'm fine with new hardware next year. I can play my ps4 games it while also picking up enhanced ports of new ps4 games such as ff7, Gt etc while getting new ps5 only games. Win, win, win.
 

Calm Mind

Member
My rule of thumb is if something has a near unanimous opposition against it on NeoGAF, best chance is that it's going to happen.

I don't believe for a second Sony would sit out the arms race for what many in this thread are suggesting.
 
My rule of thumb is if something has a near unanimous opposition against it on NeoGAF, best chance is that it's going to happen.

I don't believe for a second Sony would sit out the arms race for what many in this thread are suggesting.
Yeah how often this happens and looking back at old threqds.

You don't have to go back far to most people wanting Scorpio to be more than what it was near reveal.

People just don't care as much as they think when the real story actually emerges

Same thing was said about Scorpio, people not ready, not wanting but then peoole were dreaming a week before about new hardware, better cpu and more than 6TF while mostly being ok on the idea of it having exclusives. Then when it was known to be none of that it was overall disappointing

Sony could take the wind out ms sails with a true system architecture change and games looking more new gen than they do now. Of course ms will come in with more new hardware but late and this could be the biggest issue for them.

The power flip flop may always be there but getting your name out first and more in the generations is what counts most. I believe Sony may understand they need to be out first after what history has shown us in the playstation and Xbox brands. Early and price friendly has always won for the most part
 

anothertech

Member
I would be fine with 2 or 3 year cycles. New Gen - New Gen Pro - New Gen - New Gen Pro

Just wait it out until you are ready to get a more powerful version. Just like a phone.

No one is forcing you to buy the current one. It's a successful and sustainable model obviously.

I still don't expect PS5 till holiday 2019 though. 3 years after Pro release. Die shrink and HBM memory costs will be resonable by then.

More like PS5 ANNOUNCEMENT will happen in 2018, release is much less likely.
 

Shin

Banned
New hardware will be gladly accepted certain age demographics as well.

That's one thing this generation has thought us, before PS4P was released people were worried about their purchase (base PS4).
Yet as time has gone by we see both co-existing and cather to different demographics while being part of the same family/eco-system.

Sony has all that information, they know very well how many PS4P/PS4 they sell and how the market responded to it.
All in all PS4/PS4P/PS5 can easily co-exist without one hurting the other. In fairness of it all I do think it will be 2019 at the earliest though otherwise it won't be a big of a jump.
 
That's one thing this generation has thought us, before PS4P was released people were worried about their purchase (base PS4).
Yet as time has gone by we see both co-existing and cather to different demographics while being part of the same family/eco-system.

Sony has all that information, they know very well how many PS4P/PS4 they sell and how the market responded to it.
All in all PS4/PS4P/PS5 can easily co-exist without one hurting the other. In fairness of it all I do think it will be 2019 at the earliest though otherwise it won't be a big of a jump.
Yeah its a lot of business and technicalities, new generation of gamers and old farts obviously stop playing. Old gamers today are into what they played back in the day as well. It makes sense why so many collectors are old as hell.


We see this on yt where old farts above forty collect and hardly give a crap about current games most the time. Old farts are cool though :)
 

heathen

Member
I could see a 2018 PS5 on a 10nm node, 10tf with custom cooling like Scorpio. It would be expensive, but they should be able to get it down to $400 for a mass market slim version at 7nm. I don't think they would though, as the initial premium label might stick.
 

K.Jack

Knowledge is power, guard it well
AMD wouldn't even have any PS5 worthy hardware ready, so the notion of a 2018 release is approaching ridiculous.
 
If tlou and death stranding is 2019 titles then its dumb to launch a new system so early ...
Launching with those titles or having them release in the first year could be big

But I have little hope in ds myself. Knowing it's open world and seeing the last two mgs games.... I have no hope for this title myself. Get me back to mgs and mgs 2 type crazy and I'll be there
 
I think the opposite. With the big success of PS4, and release of mid cycle upgrades I think pubs and Sony would not like a PS5 anytime soon. I'm thinking PS5 in 2020.
 

Eylos

Banned
My rule of thumb is if something has a near unanimous opposition against it on NeoGAF, best chance is that it's going to happen.

I don't believe for a second Sony would sit out the arms race for what many in this thread are suggesting.
Theres no rumor of ps5 specs yet, when that starts appears its close
 
2019 at the earliest. 2020 at the latest

10 ~ 13 tflops depending on how early they release.

"some" backwards comparability. I do not expect full "pop in the disc and it just works" BC. They might just charge you again for all your shit too and have no purchases carry over again ala PS2 on PS4 though. Like they go back in, tweak the INI file to say 4k instead of 1080p and then charge you $40 for it.

$399.
 
Holiday 2019 is the sweet spot. People saying they aren't ready for a new gen are largely thinking about how they feel right now. Which is accurate a new PlayStation right now would feel extremely rushed.

That said Holiday 2019 is a full 2 and a half years away. The market will feel more than ready for new consoles by then.

2018 it may be theoretically feasible to launch a PS5 but it's still a bit too early
 

Timu

Member
Ridiculous.

"I welcome 5 years cycles, more is too long"

So, instead of an unified platform with a big installed base and developers focusing efforts on that one platform you want to try and sabotage the success of the PS4 with a product nobody is asking for. And all because of what? Slightly better graphics?

Thank god these people aren't in charge, jesus. They tend to be the ones that don't even play that much, they just want their shiny hardware.
It will have more than just slightly better graphics if console gens are anything to go by!!!
 
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