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Digitimes Rumor: Nintendo to ship 10-12m NX units in 2016, mass production in Q2

Yes, but the WiiU was albatrossed by cutting edge streaming tech and a huge screen. :p

So if we're using the WiiU price::baseline specs ratio comparison, we should probably shift performance ratios away from the WiiU as I doubt we're going to be getting another 150$ additional piece of hardware/streaming technology. Also the Miracast derivative is co-researched/developed by Broadcom/Nintendo, so they'll likely keep that in their pocket and potentially use it again (for cheaper).

Well, let's look at it this way. If they're sourcing their chips from AMD, at least for the main SoC, PS4 is the upper limit of what to expect. If there's nothing else to the console and Nintendo are ok w/ taking a small loss. And if they don't care about TDP. And if they even want to compete in the same space as MS and Sony.

That's alot of ifs.

I can honestly see it going either way. I know that Kimishima wasn't in charge when the main direction of this console wasn't decided, but I do know that he didn't like the Wii U because of it being too closely associated with the Wii. Maybe he understands the importance of creating a piece of hardware that is competitive as far as specs go.

I also think that the "gimmick" of this console will be in its ecosystem and less on the controller. If they haven't figured out yet that gimmicky inputs (at the expense of power or ability to play traditionally) only work short term yet, then they deserve to fail.

Here yah go. This was just last month:
Takeda said:
Simultaneously, regarding input and output technologies, I believe that it is also in line with the current technological trend that Nintendo should challenge itself with the creation of a unique user interface.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/151029qa/02.html

If you want to put it one way, Nintendo are looking to catch "lightning in a bottle" just one more time.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
There's no way they release it over $300 and they need to leave room for the gimmick. They also probably won't be able to afford the losses Sony/MS took at the start of the generation, since they presumably won't have a subscription service working as a subsidy.

If they using are cutting-edge tech like 14nm process technology, it will be even lower performance, because they'll be paying a premium over current gen for each transistor.



Wii U was a very high end device relatively speaking as far as home electronics go. Takeda viewed the Wii as a "high performance low power" device. So I don't think we can use that description to make any kind of prediction on FLOPs or anything.

I'm positive that it's going to be a fun machine, but after doing a little more research, I've brought my spec expectations down a bit. :)

What research? A bit interested :p
 
I'm already sensing that there's going to be alot of heartbreak next year.

It's going to be a low power console, a separate low power handheld, and they're both going to be based around a unique user interface/input device once again.

Prepare yourselves.

Are you saying this so that you won't be disappointed? Or is it based on information u got ?
 

The_Lump

Banned
If that LinkedIn profile is referring to anything recent, then the only "Ultra high-end" APU by AMD on the horizon is Zen,
which I joked about being in NX earlier in the thread :p No way it's anything to do with Zen or K12
.

Could be an old entry as it says she's been there since 2011. PS4 would have been seen as "Ultra High End" early in its development so that could conceivably be the console it's referring too.

If it's not an old entry though, it's actually a really interesting little tidbit. Nothing linking it to NX specifically, but any "Ultra High End APU" for a new games console should get GAF lips flapping either way...
 

Oregano

Member
Well, let's look at it this way. If they're sourcing their chips from AMD, at least for the main SoC, PS4 is the upper limit of what to expect. If there's nothing else to the console and Nintendo are ok w/ taking a small loss. And if they don't care about TDP. And if they even want to compete in the same space as MS and Sony.

That's alot of ifs.



Here yah go. This was just last month: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/151029qa/02.html

If you want to put it one way, Nintendo are looking to catch "lightning in a bottle" just one more time.

That quote doesn't necessarily mean that though. Not all input innovations are as costly as the Wiimote or Gamepad. Nintendo has a long history of input innovation(D-pad, shoulder buttons, analog stick). Having stuff like scrollable shoulder wheels would be in that spirit and probably not prohibitively expensive.
 
What research? A bit interested :p

Mostly, I've been enlightened by the projected cost of finFET (14nm/16nm) chips vs the 28nm chips currently used in the Sony/MS consoles. If they want an affordable console (they do), they either go w/ the aging 28nm tech, and PS4 is the upper limit. If the go w/ newer tech, their cost per transistor actually increases, so they'd have to make the console even less capable for the same budget...if that makes any sense.

I've also heard from 2 sources (who "seem legit" to me, but others may differ on that) that they're not shooting for the moon w/ console power.

Finally, I've been putting my speculation powers into practice as to the gimmick, and I think I've come across a reasonable prediction, but I have to take some time to type out all the pieces of the puzzle or people would just shrug it off. And I'll probably be wrong. But there's going to be some kind of hook, and it's not going to be free.

That quote doesn't necessarily mean that though. Not all input innovations are as costly as the Wiimote or Gamepad. Nintendo has a long history of input innovation(D-pad, shoulder buttons, analog stick). Having stuff like scrollable shoulder wheels would be in that spirit and probably not prohibitively expensive.

I like the idea of clickable shoulder wheels, but let's be honest. It ain't gonna sell consoles. That's the equivalent of the Gamecube controller's digital click shoulder buttons.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Mostly, I've been enlightened by the projected cost of finFET (14nm/16nm) chips vs the 28nm chips currently used in the Sony/MS consoles. If they want an affordable console (they do), they either go w/ the aging 28nm tech, and PS4 is the upper limit. If the go w/ newer tech, their cost per transistor actually increases, so they'd have to make the console even less capable for the same budget...if that makes any sense.

I've also heard from 2 sources (who "seem legit" to me, but other may differ) that they're not swinging for the moon w/ console power.

Finally, I've been putting my speculation powers into practice as to the gimmick, and I think I've come across a reasonable prediction, but I have to take some time to type out all the pieces of the puzzle or people would just shrug it off. And I'll probably be wrong. But there's going to be some kind of hook, and it's not going to be free.

Meaning PS4 equivalent or below?
 

Vena

Member
Well, let's look at it this way. If they're sourcing their chips from AMD, at least for the main SoC, PS4 is the upper limit of what to expect. If there's nothing else to the console and Nintendo are ok w/ taking a small loss. And if they don't care about TDP. And if they even want to compete in the same space as MS and Sony.

That's alot of ifs.

There's a better "if" than Jaguar APU from AMD, though, and it wouldn't even be their high-end production line for the SoC and remain on the 28nm production scale. Unless we're expecting Zen, we can be looking at a comfortable A-series that will be comparable to Jaguar but more efficient. Or just a Jag+ rather than Puma. Puma is still on 28nm productions, as are the ARM A's.

Blu broke it down in the old thread on why certain things, like the Jaguar unless Jag+, don't fit into expectations from what Nintendo is looking for (and he had similar reasoning on the WiiU that proved prophetic). (Unless I am misremembering.)

I've also heard from 2 sources (who "seem legit" to me, but others may differ on that) that they're not shooting for the moon w/ console power.

So what is the limiter on 28nm Puma from a theoretical perspective? Its is not shooting for the moon by any stretch, isn't on advanced & expensive FinFET production lines, and it is comfortably over the crapshoot that is the Jaguar in operational efficiency and power draw.
 

TunaLover

Member
There's no way they release it over $300 and they need to leave room for the gimmick. They also probably won't be able to afford the losses Sony/MS took at the start of the generation, since they presumably won't have a subscription service working as a subsidy.

If they using are cutting-edge tech like 14nm process technology, it will be even lower performance, because they'll be paying a premium over current gen for each transistor.



Wii U was a very high end device relatively speaking as far as home electronics go. Takeda viewed the Wii as a "high performance low power" device. So I don't think we can use that description to make any kind of prediction on FLOPs or anything.

I'm positive that it's going to be a fun machine, but after doing a little more research, I've brought my spec expectations down a bit. :)
The problem with Wii U wasn't the gimmick, was it was too expensive so it ate in hardware territory to find a sweet spot price, Wiimote was comparatively cheap to produce. I believe they will think twice before produce another expensive gimmick, at least it should be alot cheaper to produce than the Gamepad.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
If this is a console. I'm not sure it's a good idea to build all the units you'll ever sell in the first year.
 

Oregano

Member
Mostly, I've been enlightened by the projected cost of finFET (14nm/16nm) chips vs the 28nm chips currently used in the Sony/MS consoles. If they want an affordable console (they do), they either go w/ the aging 28nm tech, and PS4 is the upper limit. If the go w/ newer tech, their cost per transistor actually increases, so they'd have to make the console even less capable for the same budget...if that makes any sense.

I've also heard from 2 sources (who "seem legit" to me, but others may differ on that) that they're not shooting for the moon w/ console power.

Finally, I've been putting my speculation powers into practice as to the gimmick, and I think I've come across a reasonable prediction, but I have to take some time to type out all the pieces of the puzzle or people would just shrug it off. And I'll probably be wrong. But there's going to be some kind of hook, and it's not going to be free.



I like the idea of clickable shoulder wheels, but let's be honest. It ain't gonna sell consoles. That's the equivalent of the Gamecube controller's digital click shoulder buttons.

Right but in that quote there's no talk of having to sell the system on that basis. For the record I'm not suggesting that shoulder wheels are the gimmick either but they still fit the spirit of input innovation.
 

SalvaPot

Member
I am sure they are going to go with a cheap console this time.

$200 NXDS
$250 NXHD (As in Nintendo X Home Device)

They will share the OS and most games are going to be cross compatible, but with exclusive features depending on what version you get. HD graphics for the NXHD and a better controller and couch multiplayer, while NXDS requires everyone to have their own NXDS for multiplayer and you can play on the go.

Specs are going to be similar to the current PS4/XB1, perhaps a bit better, but Nintendo will focus on them been easy to port games over for third parties and give some incentives to the developers, mostly amiibo support stuff.

They will sell a $400 bundle that includes both the NXDS and the NXHD.

As for games, the New 3D Mario and a port of Zelda is a given, maybe with a minigame collection as the third wheel.
 
Every time, people go through the very good reasons why the NX won't be a hybrid.

Every time, someone pops up...

92196.gif
 
Right but in that quote there's no talk of having to sell the system on that basis.

Actually, we have Nintendo discussing NX itself as if the platform is going to be a "totally new concept," with Takeda's comments about "the creation of a new user interface" as just one of the challenges from a hardware perspective.

All signs point to a box that isn't just a vanilla game player with Nintendo first-party software on it.
 

Neoxon

Junior Member
I am sure they are going to go with a cheap console this time.

$200 NXDS
$250 NXHD (As in Nintendo X Home Device)

They will share the OS and most games are going to be cross compatible, but with exclusive features depending on what version you get. HD graphics for the NXHD and a better controller and couch multiplayer, while NXDS requires everyone to have their own NXDS for multiplayer and you can play on the go.

Specs are going to be similar to the current PS4/XB1, perhaps a bit better, but Nintendo will focus on them been easy to port games over for third parties and give some incentives to the developers, mostly amiibo support stuff.

They will sell a $400 bundle that includes both the NXDS and the NXHD.

As for games, the New 3D Mario and a port of Zelda is a given, maybe with a minigame collection as the third wheel.
If you ask me, Nintendo's probably gonna distance themselves from the DS branding much like they are from the Wii branding (basically going for the Nintendo brand instead). But again, that's just my opinion on the matter. It could easily be NXGo & NXHD instead. It just seems like whatever the final name of the NX Platform ends up being will be the new branding for Nintendo going forward.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mostly, I've been enlightened by the projected cost of finFET (14nm/16nm) chips vs the 28nm chips currently used in the Sony/MS consoles. If they want an affordable console (they do), they either go w/ the aging 28nm tech, and PS4 is the upper limit. If the go w/ newer tech, their cost per transistor actually increases, so they'd have to make the console even less capable for the same budget...if that makes any sense.

I've also heard from 2 sources (who "seem legit" to me, but others may differ on that) that they're not shooting for the moon w/ console power.

Finally, I've been putting my speculation powers into practice as to the gimmick, and I think I've come across a reasonable prediction, but I have to take some time to type out all the pieces of the puzzle or people would just shrug it off. And I'll probably be wrong. But there's going to be some kind of hook, and it's not going to be free.



I like the idea of clickable shoulder wheels, but let's be honest. It ain't gonna sell consoles. That's the equivalent of the Gamecube controller's digital click shoulder buttons.

If you can, I'd like to get a PM about these two sources.
 

SalvaPot

Member
If you ask me, Nintendo's probably gonna distance themselves from the DS branding much like they are from the Wii branding (basically going for the Nintendo brand instead). But again, that's just my opinion on the matter. It could easily be NXGo & NXHD instead. It just seems like whatever the final name of the NX Platform ends up being will be the new branding for Nintendo going forward.

The DS brand is not toxic the same way the Wii brand is, the 3DS all it needed was a price cut and its sales flourished. The new 3DS even with its stupid name also sold pretty well. I think they'll be fine keeping with the DS brand, even my aunt who knows nothing of gaming keeps buying the new version that comes out for my niece when he sees a new model in walmart.
 

SuperHans

Member
There's a better "if" than Jaguar APU from AMD, though, and it wouldn't even be their high-end production line for the SoC and remain on the 28nm production scale. Unless we're expecting Zen, we can be looking at a comfortable A-series that will be comparable to Jaguar but more efficient. Or just a Jag+ rather than Puma. Puma is still on 28nm productions, as are the ARM A's.

Blu broke it down in the old thread on why certain things, like the Jaguar unless Jag+, don't fit into expectations from what Nintendo is looking for (and he had similar reasoning on the WiiU that proved prophetic). (Unless I am misremembering.)



So what is the limiter on 28nm Puma from a theoretical perspective? Its is not shooting for the moon by any stretch, isn't on advanced & expensive FinFET production lines, and it is comfortably over the crapshoot that is the Jaguar in operational efficiency and power draw.


Puma+ seems the most likely to me if they go with x86 cores. I think they might end up with a custom ARM core though in both handheld and console though.
 
I've also heard from 2 sources (who "seem legit" to me, but others may differ on that) that they're not shooting for the moon w/ console power.

"Seeming legit" without a proven source? The WSJ article had actual sources that were legit and cross-referenced before posting. The author posted "Industry Leading Chips" due to the extremely impressive tech demo running on NX SDK and from developers flat out saying that to run the things displayed would need the latest GPU and CPU's.

I know you are already well aware of this Fourth, you don't seem to have any new information on this correct? Just speculation still?

The right type of design could theoretically make the NX outperform the PS4 quite easily, even if it's less powerful overall (see Gamecube).
 

tronic307

Member
I think these numbers are for all the SKUs (or at least the 20m forecasted - if true - by Nintendo).



Have you seen this? https://www.linkedin.com/in/sivanandh-ramadass-5b036425


Don't know if it's true, but i read this is supposed to be the lead designer of NX (the link was posted in that thread before it was closed). Any thoughts?
You know what's cool about that? He works for AMD and Qualcomm. SOC integration... could be a clue. It does make sense: AMD for the console APU and Qualcomm for the handheld SOC.
 
In the past that statement would ring true but Apple has changed the game in the cellphone space much in the way I think Nintendo could do the same in the gaming console space. Keep in mind, consumers were largely starting over in a new eco system when purchasing a new piece of hardware. Going forward, purchasing the newer device still means you get to keep/play everything you have already invested in.

Apple's brand power and Nintendo's brand power is uncomparable. Besides most people have no problem spending a ton of money on a smart phone which is perceived as an essential item for everyday life. A game console is a luxury item that most average people only buy when they have extra money to spend.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
I've also heard from 2 sources (who "seem legit" to me, but others may differ on that) that they're not shooting for the moon w/ console power. .

They are not in that race anymore. Poor Nintendo fans that think Nintendo will deliver a power house are going to in for a shock.
It wouldn't surprise me if it's less powerful then an Xbox One.
 

Shiggy

Member
"Seeming legit" without a proven source? The WSJ article had actual sources that were legit and cross-referenced before posting. The author posted "Industry Leading Chips" due to the extremely impressive tech demo running on NX SDK and from developers flat out saying that to run the things displayed would need the latest GPU and CPU's.

I know you are already well aware of this Fourth, you don't seem to have any new information on this correct? Just speculation still?

The right type of design could theoretically make the NX outperform the PS4 quite easily, even if it's less powerful overall (see Gamecube).

The WSJ article did not say anything about the power of the NX systems from what I remember.
 

Neoxon

Junior Member
Please be a handheld, please be a handleheld, please be a handleheld!!!
There will likely be an NX Handheld form factor based on what little we know, but nothing is certain right now (especially with Nintendo keeping a tight lid on any potential leaks).
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
The right type of design could theoretically make the NX outperform the PS4 quite easily, even if it's less powerful overall (see Gamecube).

LOL what?

And what kind of design would that be if it's less powerful overall but can easily outperform a PS4.

YsbKHg1.gif
 

GrandiaX

Banned
That's a damning photo. Imagine what would have happened if the Wii and handheld gaming divisions didn't print turn money all those years?

Every console sold less than its predecessor except for the Wii. And even the NES numbers are small compared to the current market where 2 brands sell 80M+ each.

I just wonder if consoles are the future. Can you imagine only Sony and Nintendo making consoles after Microsoft exits? Those numbers are more than damning.
 
LOL what?

And what kind of design would that be if it's less powerful overall but can easily outperform a PS4.

YsbKHg1.gif

Haha, nice one. I just meant that newer chipsets are built more efficient, achieving more with less. This is something Nintendo is known for with previous consoles like the Gamecube.
 

Kssio_Aug

Member
There will likely be an NX Handheld form factor based on what little we know, but nothing is certain right now (especially with Nintendo keeping a tight lid on any potential leaks).

I really like Nintendo handlehelds, and am more likely to buy one rather than a new standard console. Would be great, specially if backwards compatible with N3DS games.
 

Guymelef

Member
"Seeming legit" without a proven source? The WSJ article had actual sources that were legit and cross-referenced before posting. The author posted "Industry Leading Chips" due to the extremely impressive tech demo running on NX SDK and from developers flat out saying that to run the things displayed would need the latest GPU and CPU's.

I know you are already well aware of this Fourth, you don't seem to have any new information on this correct? Just speculation still?

The right type of design could theoretically make the NX outperform the PS4 quite easily, even if it's less powerful overall (see Gamecube).

In what world "Industry Leading Chips" means something like more powerful than a XBO-PS4?
My smartphone use an "Industry Leading Chip".
 

Jumpman23

Member
Apple's brand power and Nintendo's brand power is uncomparable. Besides most people have no problem spending a ton of money on a smart phone which is perceived as an essential item for everyday life. A game console is a luxury item that most average people only buy when they have extra money to spend.

That is the point. Before Apple I don't think a single person thought they needed a new cellphone every year. Look at us now.
 
Are you saying this so that you won't be disappointed? Or is it based on information u got ?

Both. Well, let me think it through actually and I'll be straight up before I engage in further conversation on the matter. I've heard through the grapevine that 14nm may be on the table. This is like 3rd hand, but it seems to line up w/ reports out of AMD and GF as of late.

Then there's that Tamaki dude on Twitter/Unseen64. He said it wasn't meant to compete on graphics w/ PS4. Granted, the guy comes across somewhat poorly in this tweets. But on the one podcast, he further expanded on it, and the hosts basically agreed with him. Some of what he said was also very similar to something another poster on this board heard. I don't feel like calling that person out, though, because that kind of thing keeps fun leaked tidbits from happening.

But beyond that, we have only basic economics at work.
There's a better "if" than Jaguar APU from AMD, though, and it wouldn't even be their high-end production line for the SoC and remain on the 28nm production scale. Unless we're expecting Zen, we can be looking at a comfortable A-series that will be comparable to Jaguar but more efficient. Or just a Jag+ rather than Puma. Puma is still on 28nm productions, as are the ARM A's.

Blu broke it down in the old thread on why certain things, like the Jaguar unless Jag+, don't fit into expectations from what Nintendo is looking for (and he had similar reasoning on the WiiU that proved prophetic). (Unless I am misremembering.)



So what is the limiter on 28nm Puma from a theoretical perspective? Its is not shooting for the moon by any stretch, isn't on advanced & expensive FinFET production lines, and it is comfortably over the crapshoot that is the Jaguar in operational efficiency and power draw.

I'm not even thinking about CPU right now. They could slap an 8 core ARM Cortex A57 @ 2 Ghz and it would be comparable to PS4/Xbone. Or they could go w/ a 28nm Carrizo-esque chip on the cheap. I think they'll want a common ISA w/ the handheld CPU, though, so I still think ARM cores. AMD have a Cortex A72 licence as well, but work on the NX SoC likely started before. In fact, I think it was originally meant to be 20nm back when people still expected 20nm to be a more useful node.
"Seeming legit" without a proven source? The WSJ article had actual sources that were legit and cross-referenced before posting. The author posted "Industry Leading Chips" due to the extremely impressive tech demo running on NX SDK and from developers flat out saying that to run the things displayed would need the latest GPU and CPU's.

I know you are already well aware of this Fourth, you don't seem to have any new information on this correct? Just speculation still?
We've talked about the likely interpretation of the "industry leading chips" comment. Vulkan API, different CPU ISA, and your general early dev kit hiccups could have easily lead to framerate drops even on souped up dev workstations.
The right type of design could theoretically make the NX outperform the PS4 quite easily, even if it's less powerful overall (see Gamecube).
I would like to see you or someone else propose a setup w/ AMD parts that could outperform PS4 and remain economical. I mean, I know AMD are banking on these gigantic (slim margin) semi custom contracts, but Nintendo have sold ~65 million pieces of hardware combined this gen. Could they possibly have gotten that much better a deal than the Sony and MS ones, which AMD already take bare minimal in profits from?
 

Darksol

Member
If this does end up as some sort of hybrid console/handheld I hope it's better than every other hybrid I've ever tried...shampoo & conditioner in 1, I'm looking at you!
 

sinxtanx

Member
The right type of design could theoretically make the NX outperform the PS4 quite easily, even if it's less powerful overall (see Gamecube).
You talking about GC vs PS2? Cause GC was more powerful than PS2 all categories. Only up the PS2 had was DVDs.

And no. Magic is fake as fuck. Secret sauce is not a thing.
 
In what world "Industry Leading Chips" means something like more powerful than a XBO-PS4?
My smartphone use an "Industry Leading Chip".

Lol, yeah I know.....however the statement was made in regards to consoles not smart phones.

Further questions to the author of the WSJ article revealed the information about the tech demo. The NX Console is not going to be using industry leading smart phone chips lol.
 
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