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[XenodudeX]

He has a very good chance to get the nom. He's the frontrunner after all.

I still don't think he'll get it though.

 

[EatinOlives]

There's been a phenomenon in other countries of the "embarassed voter", meaning right-wing candidates do better in an election than polling had suggested, as voters were too embarrassed to report their support to pollsters. It will be interesting to see if this applies to Trump, both in the primary and the general.

I've been hearing this being thrown around, and while undoubtedly there will be people who are ignorant and racist to feel empowered to vote, I find it hard to believe this is some super secret new demographic enough to swing a general election, and enough to cancel out every single minority that will vote against Trump.

 

[Aaron Strife]

That's a liberal fantasy that will never happen. Even Bill Clinton who was pretty much Republican-lite didn't do that well.

This is probably the best case scenario for Trump: http://www.270towin.com/maps/M4Br1

hahahahahhahaha what

also Clinton got 379 electoral votes in his re-election... 6 more isn't that much.

 

[Basileus777]

2 years ago: Donald Trump is just doing this for attention, he's not really going to run!
1 year ago: Donald Trump may be running, but there's no way someone like him will get the nomination!
Now: Donald Trump may win the nomination, but he could never be elected president!

Your timescale is really off

 

[AniHawk]

That's a liberal fantasy that will never happen. Even Bill Clinton who was pretty much Republican-lite didn't do that well.

This is probably the best case scenario for Trump: http://www.270towin.com/maps/M4Br1

i think this is his best-case map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/5WPxx

i have a super super hard time believing that new york and pennsylvania would go red but other states wouldn't. ohio might be possible with a trump/kasich ticket, really. virginia seems more blue than red these days, but i don't know how that state's demographics look at the moment. it could be just as valuable to the democrats as ohio or florida.

 

[Grinchy]

At this point, I almost hope Trump wins. I just want to see how much a president can actually single-handedly screw up. If nothing bad happens, we'll know that none of this shit actually matters, which is something many already suspect.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

For me as a European this American election is like the scariest circus I've ever witnessed and I don't know what to expect out of you guys.

Well, there's plenty of scary shit going on right here in Europe right now, when it comes to election results

 

[ivysaur12]

That's a liberal fantasy that will never happen. Even Bill Clinton who was pretty much Republican-lite didn't do that well.

This is probably the best case scenario for Trump: http://www.270towin.com/maps/M4Br1

hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahhahhahahahahhaha

ahahahahahahahahhahahahaahahahahahahahahahah

No.

i think this is his best-case map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/5WPxx

i have a super super hard time believing that new york and pennsylvania would go red but other states wouldn't. ohio might be possible with a trump/kasich ticket, really. virginia seems more blue than red these days, but i don't know how that state's demographics look at the moment. it could be just as valuable to the democrats as ohio or florida.

It would be very very hard to flip Virginia red, considering how inelastic it is. You'd have an easier time with more blue states.

 

[Basileus777]

That's a liberal fantasy that will never happen. Even Bill Clinton who was pretty much Republican-lite didn't do that well.

This is probably the best case scenario for Trump: http://www.270towin.com/maps/M4Br1

Lol at NJ and NY going red. Does this best case scenario involve mind control?

 

[RustyNails]

That's a liberal fantasy that will never happen. Even Bill Clinton who was pretty much Republican-lite didn't do that well.

This is probably the best case scenario for Trump: http://www.270towin.com/maps/M4Br1

LOL

I didn't Dick Morris had a gaf account

 

[ivysaur12]

Lol at NJ and NY going red. Does this best case scenario involve mind control?

This is almost as bad as his other Magnum Opus:

Also the first time a woman candidate is heavily favored to be president. What a coincidence.

Bernie has long been advocating for women's rights, including reproductive rights, paid family leave, healthcare for mothers, and yes, expanding Planned Parenthood. But of course no one takes Bernie seriously because he is a man.

Reverse sexism at its finest.

Or this one:

Policy doesn't matter as much, honestly, because that's mostly up to Congress. You think that Bernie will get half the things he wants to get done? Probably not, even if he gets elected. Same with Trump. No way his Muslim ban will actually get through, not to mention there's no way to even realistically implement it.

What's more important is energizing the voting public, and getting more people involved in the political process, so real change can be made. Once voter turnout increases, then depending on how the general public votes in the Congressional races, that will then shape policy. Hillary simply guarantees the same gridlock that we've seen for the past eight years; business as usual.

Besides, Trump and Sanders actually share similar positions on many issues that are simply overlooked:

Marriage equality:
Trump:
Respects the court's decision: "Some people have hopes of passing amendments, but it's not going to happen. Congress can't pass simple things, let alone that. So anybody that's making that an issue is doing it for political reasons. The Supreme Court ruled on it."
Donald Trump most LGBT-friendly Republican?
Bernie: Long time supporter of LGBT rights.

Ecnomy:
Trump:
Trump is against Wall Street and wants to tax hedge fund managers more: ""They're paying nothing, and it's ridiculous. I want to save the middle class"
"The hedge fund people make a lot of money and they pay very little tax," Trump said in an interview Wednesday with Bloomberg. "I want to lower taxes for the middle class."
In short, Trump is willing to raise taxes on himself and those like him.
Bernie:
Against wall street and wants to tax corporations more. Wants to transfer more wealth to middle class via tax policies.

Trade:
Trump:
The TPP should not be supported and should not be allowed to happen.
Bernie:
The TPP Must Be Defeated

Drugs:
Trump:
States should be allowed to legalize marijuana
Bernie:
"In my view, states should have the right to regulate marijuana the same way that state and local laws now govern sales of alcohol and tobacco."

Foreign Policy:
Trump:
"I Would Have Never Been In Iraq"
Bernie:
Bernie Sanders opposes Iraq War

Super PACs and Election Funding:
Trump:
"A lot of PACs are crooked business," Trump said.
"I don't want anybody from PACs. I don't want any money."
Bernie:
Bernie Pledges Not To Accept Super PAC Support

Gun Control:
Trump:
Supports 2nd amendment but also supports background checks. Need to fix the mental health system.
Bernie:
Believes in middle-ground legislation. Supports background checks. Wants to keep guns out of mentally ill.

Healthcare:
Trump:
Trump pushes single-payer healthcare, taxes on wealthy
Bernie:
Supports single-payer healthcare


Some of the differences between Trump and Bernie come down to the more radical ideas that will likely never get implemented anyway, like the Muslim ban, building a wall for Trump, or free College for all, and <=90% tax rate for Bernie.

Or how Trump isn't racist:

Either you do not know the definition of the word "racist" or you are ignorant of Trump's positions. Let me help you:

rac·ist
&#712;r&#257;s&#601;st/
adjective
noun: racist; plural noun: racists; adjective: racist
1.
having or showing the belief that a particular race is superior to another.


Most accusations of Trump's supposed racism comes from two sources:

1. His proposed temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States.

The problem with this is, Islam is not a race. Not only that, but he's not even talking about all Muslims, only those entering the country. Trump has no problem with the millions of Muslims in America today: I love the Muslims. I think they're great people.

2. His stance on illegal immigration.

Again, Trump makes no claim that any race is superior or inferior to the Latino race. He doesn't even mention race. He talks about people coming in from Mexico (which is a country, not a race), illegally, and many are criminals or whatnot. Now, you can argue about the definition of "many", but consider that millions come here illegally, even if 99% of them do not commit crimes, that's still thousands of illegal immigrants who are criminals. I would certainly consider that to be "many". But that issue aside, we are talking about illegal immigration, by people from a certain country. It's not about race. Notice how Trump has no problems with Latinos in America legally, or Latinos immigrating legally from South America, etc. Trump: I have thousands of Hispanics working for me. I love the people.

You can say Trump is using negative rhetoric. You can say Trump is harsh on immigration and enforcing the laws. You can say Trump's policies target certain groups of people. (which all politicians are guilty of; see Bernie targeting the wealthy) But to say Trump is a racist is completely unfounded and outright slander. It's a sad commentary on America today that we take offense at the slightest things and label it racism. This is why we need real change in Washington and why we cannot afford another 4 years of politics as usual.

And this:

On a lighter note, my local area has been freezing lately. Decided to get a beanie to help with the morning walk to the office.

It finally came in the mail!

Looks great next to my mug.

 

[Manmademan]

i think this is his best-case map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/5WPxx

i have a super super hard time believing that new york and pennsylvania would go red but other states wouldn't. this might be possible with a trump/kasich ticket, really. virginia seems more blue than red these days, but i don't know how that state's demographics look at the moment. it could be just as valuable to the democrats as ohio or florida.

Florida might actually be out of play for republicans going forward. The economic collapse of puerto rico has sent an absolute FLOOD of puerto ricans there in the past several years, and the recent debt crisis has only accelerated it.

Florida now has about 1 million Puerto Ricans in it- only slightly less than New York but set to pass it shortly- with thousands of families more arriving per month. Unlike Florida Cubans, Puerto Ricans are heavily democratic, by a 57-22 margin.

 

[AniHawk]

hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahhahhahahahahhaha

ahahahahahahahahhahahahaahahahahahahahahahah

No.



It would be very very hard to flip Virginia red, considering how inelastic it is. You'd have an easier time with more blue states.

shit. i actually forgot all about colorado and new mexico.

yeah, even without virginia it's pretty fucking hard for trump to win on an electoral level.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQ6jK

 

[ivysaur12]

Florida might actually be out of play for republicans going forward. The economic collapse of puerto rico has sent an absolute FLOOD of puerto ricans there in the past several years.

Florida now has about 1 million Puerto Ricans in it, with thousands of families more arriving per month. Unlike Florida Cubans, Puerto Ricans are heavily democratic, by a 57-22 margin.

Also Cubans are now increasingly more Democratic. It's almost like rhetoric matters!

shit. i actually forgot all about colorado and new mexico.

yeah, even without virginia it's pretty fucking hard for trump to win on an electoral level.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQ6jK

Yeah, it's really hard given that Colorado and Nevada have large Hispanic populations that will not vote for Trump. And Virgnia is one of the most inelastic states in the country and 2014 put it pretty squarely in the Democratic camp since they reelected their Senator (albeit barely) who just didn't campaign.

It's really tough.

 

[The Artisan]

trump becoming president would be...interesting, to put it nicely.

 

[Downhome]

trump becoming president would be...interesting, to put it nicely.

Just imagine the state of the union addresses, all of his speeches, all of it.

I actually think he has a shot at the entire thing now.

 

[AniHawk]

Just imagine the state of the union addresses, all of his speeches, all of it.

I actually think he has a shot at the entire thing now.

'SOME STUPID PEOPLE SAY WE'RE IN THE WORST FINANCIAL CRISIS SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION, BUT I SAY WE'RE IN THE GREATEST, MOST LUXUROUS DEPRESSION THERE EVER WAS.'

 

[RPGCrazied]

trump becoming president would be...interesting, to put it nicely.

I can't imagine his first week in office, hell the first day. Can you imagine people protesting while they are trying to swear him into office? Would be interesting.

He would probably end up getting impeached too.

 

[uncelestial]

Fools who can't figure out that their hoodie is zipped up while they are putting it on should not be president.

In answer to the OP/title: you'd have to be crazy to completely deny the possibility, which is looking stronger the longer Trump stays on top. Even the RNC chair is predicting he'll get the nomination.

 

[Glass Shark]

I hope he does, it will just make Hillary's inevitable victory that much easier.

 

[params7]

What's Trump going to do when this kid steals the nomination?

 

[The Artisan]

Just imagine the state of the union addresses, all of his speeches, all of it.

I actually think he has a shot at the entire thing now.

is he more popular than the leading democrat?

I can't imagine his first week in office, hell the first day. Can you imagine people protesting while they are trying to swear him into office? Would be interesting.

He would probably end up getting impeached too.

yeah, I agree that he would end up getting impeached, which would be a good thing.

 

[inm8num2]

What's Trump going to do when this kid steals the nomination?

Build a wall around his house when he's sleeping so he can't get out.

 

[Darkgran]

He will win the nomination and he will win this election. People who think otherwise are delusional.

LMAO

He is NOT wining the presidency....

 

[Makai]

He's using data/information currently available at the time of these articles to give an analysis/opinion on the data. Whether the analysis/opinion proves correct or incorrect doesn't mean he has an agenda or is in denial. The fact that he continues to adjust his analysis as new data comes vs staying "one note" supports the opposite of a denial narrative.

that's the thing...he actively ignored that Trump was the frontrunner for six months. He just had a qualitative belief that the party would stop Trump.

 

[ctfg23]

I think there's a pretty good chance he'll win the GOP primary but there's no way he'll win the general.

 

[Mrbob]

Wrong thread.

 

[Psychological Intellect]

As I just wrote in another thread, I don't think the Democratic candidate would have the presidency set in stone when running against Trump or Cruz. One of my concerns, for instance, is that terrorists could strategically stage a major 9/11-like attack just weeks/days before the election in order to turn public opinion towards a war hawk. Such scenarios make a Trump/Cruz nomination worrying. There is always a non-zero chance that they might win the presidency. Lots of weird things can happen and do happen all the time.

Additionally, Trump will 100% swing to the center-left once he has the nomination. We have seen that he is willing to say anything that will get him votes. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he would change his talking points from batshit crazy to moderate-liberal in order to get the independent vote.

 

[Rembrandt]

people should have stopped acting like it wasn't a possibility when his openly racist remarks made his poll numbers go up several times.

 

[Calamari41]

Trump has gone through the Republican field like Whitney's Miltank. I'm not saying Hillary is going to lose, but I think people are underestimating Trump's ability to tear others down. She'll be the last Pokemon out, and Miltank is going to be ten turns deep into Rollout.

 

[Grover]

over the summer i din't, but now i surely do

 

[ElTorro]

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/4d/85/95/4d85951d62b75a6b082124de1f4e3247.jpg [IMG][/QUOTE]

The last terror attacks in Europe were motivated by a desire to change public opinion and drag the West into a cultural and conventional war with Muslims. If a terrorist group had the means to conduct an attack with a big symbolic impact, the time right before the elections would be the time to do it. I am not saying that this is likely, but it would follow their logic well. In that case, people might easily vote for the war hawk, just like people still voted for Bush in 2004.

 

[Ryan_MSF]

(Subnote before my post, i'm from the UK, however i've had a keen interest in the election and have been following coverage since the beginning.)

I figured at first that Trump wouldn't get anywhere in this race, neither the GOP nomination, and laughed at the possibility of him winning the election, however poll after poll he's coming out on top, even after the crazy shit he comes out with, his hype train has just kept on going, I figure from op-ed pieces from various sources, a lot of it comes down to the american public being sick of the establishment, which explains Trumps popularity, as well as Bernie's - people are sick of establishment candidates, bought politicians etc.

Hilary obviously stands in with a chance, however, with the email debacle, and the FBI now expanding the investigation if this doesn't go the way she thinks it will, it could spell bad news. In addition, I get the feeling that if (I obviously pray that it doesn't) another ISIS attack were to happen it'd cement Donald Trump in the GE, and perhaps path his route directly to the white house.

 

[Tesseract]

I hope he does, it will just make Hillary's inevitable victory that much easier.

nothing is inevitable, bernie is coming

 

[nillah]

I don't have confidence in Trump but I have FAITH in Trump

 

[L33T]

don't waifu shame me!!! !

 

[James93]

Trump is more than likely going to win. The democrats is really a toss up between Clinton and sanders.

All bets are off for the general election.