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[hatchx]

I'm optimistic for a couple of reasons:

-amiibo (and the way it helped Mario Party 10 chart on NPD)

-strong previews/reviews/word-of-mouth, unlike W101

-marketing effort. I saw a big poster for this in the storefront window of an EB yesterday

-lack of anything else on WiiU. Starved userbase who bought WiiU for Kart/Smash

-looks absolutely fun, engaging, and easy to pick-up-and-play

-my baseless speculation that an inkling will be a DLC character in Smash Bros.



Launching at the tail end of May will make it hard to know how it does in the NPD tracking. I suspect it'll sell close to 250k in it's opening month in NA, and I think it'll come-close and might even crack 100k in Japan. It'll probably end up with 750k sales worldwide, which I think will be considered fairly successful for WiiU. Anything north of 750k is a major success, anything south of 500k would be a disappointment.

 

[Darksol]

I expect it will be fun. I have no sales expectations though.

 

[Boney]

I don't think Nintendo has any idea how to market a game that doesn't belong to their popular established ip's.

Hoping for the best though

 

[Fiercedeity]

How I personally feel about it, seems not to interesting to me. But if it does well then that's great.

Yea for me it's far too multiplayer centric so it loses my interest for the most part. Of course my own personal tastes don't determine sales but the fact that it's a new ip, on the wii u, looks very kiddie etc doesn't bode well imo.

 

[Gatzor]

we? What is neogaf, legion?

personally, no, I don't think so, but i wouldn't be shocked

 

[Neoxon]

I really doubt it. At least if it stays on the Wii U. Nintendo will probably refocus their efforts and release later games on the 3DS and other handhelds.

Splatoon as a concept seems too big for a portable. If anything, Nintendo will try to get a sequel out on the next console if the first game does decently enough.

 

[Yaphett Kotto]

It won't be anything special.

Even if the game hit every tune with online features and was bordering CoD4 levels of innovation, I think it would still be another Wii U game.

 

[SerTapTap]

How well did Pikmin 3 sell? I kind of figured it bombed due to delay and coming out in that awkward period after it was clear the Wii U was a bomb and before MK8 and Smash hit. I love the game but I'm not sure how high a target it is.

It won't be anything special.

Even if the game hit every tune with online features and was bordering CoD4 levels of innovation, I think it would still be another Wii U game.

Part of me agrees that market isn't on Wii U, on the other hand the two biggest wii u titles (I think) are smash and kart, both with online play that seems fairly active.

 

[Fbh]

I doubt it.

I'd be nice if it sold well because I allways like new Nintendo Ip's doing well.
But I don't see it appealing to that many people with it being a shooter focusing on online play on the WiiU. Even the Mario Kart online community got smaller after a few months (before the DLC), and that's was Mario Kart. Also, even kids that play online like basic online features like chat.

I have a WiiU and like it quite a bit, but I have no interest in Splatoon

 

[NotLiquid]

It'll do good enough.

 

[Zalman]

Just like Xenoblade Chronicles, it will probably do well enough to get a sequel. I think Nintendo knows what to expect from the Wii U at this point.

 

[theprodigy]

It's going to outsell all Nintendo's non-Mario/Kart/Smash/Zelda games on Wii U. Not a commercial bomb at all, that's going to be XCX.

Nintendo Land and Wii Party U don't count huh

 

[Beelzebufo]

That would be funny if Splatoon becomes the fan-requested DLC Smash character, but nobody buys the game

 

[bobawesome]

Splatoon as a concept seems too big for a portable. If anything, Nintendo will try to get a sequel out on the next console if the first game does decently enough.

It very well could be, as I haven't really kept up with the game since the initial unveiling.

 

[Coolwhip]

I doubt it will do well.

This is a game for:

- shooter fans
- that dont need blood
- that dont mind "kiddy" looks
- that dont need voicechat
- that own a Wii U

 

[Sendou]

Part of me agrees that market isn't on Wii U, on the other hand the two biggest wii u titles (I think) are smash and kart, both with online play that seems fairly active.

So where's the market to Splatoon then if not on Wii U? I can't exactly figure out a close equivalent to the game on other platforms. It's a shooter but it's pretty much the same thing as Mario Kart being a racing game (and more or less only one in that genre available for Wii U).

 

[Neoxon]

Just like Xenoblade Chronicles, it will probably do well enough to get a sequel. I think Nintendo knows what to expect from the Wii U at this point.

Just about what I expect. Xenoblade gathered enough attention to gain a rep in Smash & a bigger-budget sequel on the Wii U. That's about what I expect from Splatoon (though if it'll get a Smash rep as DLC now or if it'll be saved for Smash 5 remains to be seen).

 

[NotLiquid]

Nintendo Land and Wii Party U don't count huh

Nintendo Land isn't exactly the fairest thing to compare since that's largely been a bundle title.

 

[March of the Crabs]

I hope it'll do well but I doubt it will. I'll be buying it though!

 

[Ninjimbo]

It won't a major IP. The IP that are Nintendo's bread and butter are Mario, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart and to a lesser extent Zelda. I don't see Splatoon getting anywhere near the sales a single game in those franchises is capable of doing.

I think if Splatoon does Pikmin numbers, Nintendo will be happy.

 

[Beelzebufo]

I doubt it will do well.

This is a game for:

- shooter fans
- that dont need blood
- that dont mind "kiddy" looks
- that dont need voicechat
- that own a Wii U

-that only like playing the same multiplayer mode

(Right? Or was that a misunderstanding?)
All I know is I was immediately turned off by he art-style, and everything we've seen since seemed to indicate that Nintendo's dropped the ball with online play in an online-focused shooter.

 

[Kubera Leez]

Nintendo seems to be making a great effort with it. I hope their efforts are rewarded with success. I know I will be doing my part.

 

[Deleted member 465307]

I mean, did you expect Codename S.T.E.A.M. to be the next big Nintendo IP? The Wonderful 101?

I think Splatoon will at least be a moderate success. I didn't expect either CNS or W101 to be big hits and felt that they weren't going to do very well from the beginning. It feels like Splatoon has a better energy (though obviously not a Smash or MK levels). Maybe lifetime sales between 0.5-1 million worldwide? That's based on current marketing efforts/trajectory.

-that only like playing the same multiplayer mode

(Right? Or was that a misunderstanding?)

They've shown off two online modes so far, and the screenshots/phrasing has been highly suggestive that there are other modes they haven't shown. I think the Direct will reveal more.

 

[Fiercedeity]

It very well could be, as I haven't really kept up with the game since the initial unveiling.

It's not. If you can have xenoblade chronicles and smash on the 3ds you could easily have Splatoon

 

[Cheeseman Battitude]

If it is amazing would people stop playing BF and COD for it?

 

[James Scott]

Depending on its reception. Like, if it's not very good then it won't go anywhere (kind of like Code Name Steam)
Nintendo seems confident of the game and the previews have been pretty positive thus far and Nintendo is seemingly actually advertising it even giving it its own bundle. Not expecting massive sales, but I don't think 1 million is too unlikely unless something goes wrong (metacritic score of sub 80%, broken online at launch, or some other controversy)

It's not. If you can xenoblade chronicles and smash on the 3ds you could easily have Splatoon

Well, Xenoblade is on the New 3DS only since the old 3DS couldn't handle it and a multiplayer focused shooter wouldn't work on the New 3DS's installbase. I think the paint mechanic would be a bit much for the old 3DS to handle as well.
But I can see the NX portable getting a new installment of Splatoon like portables have been getting Mario Kart for awhile.

 

[mrmickfran]

Make it free and Splatoon 2 might have a chance.

Might.

 

[NotLiquid]

-that only like playing the same multiplayer mode

(Right? Or was that a misunderstanding?)

There's more than just one multiplayer mode. We already know of three.

Chances are we'll hear more on Thursday.

 

[Astral Dog]

Splatoon has the advantage that appeals to a younger demographic than previous non Mario/Zelda games, so i see it doing a little better, but its the Wii U, everything is in danger.

I could ask the same about Xenoblade X, or FE X SMT or Pikmin 4, or Bayonetta 3 etc. its difficult to determine their future, its just not very bright.

 

[Takamura-San]

If it is amazing would people stop playing BF and COD for it?

That really seems very far fetched....

 

[Weskerlover]

It will sell good enough to secure a sequel.

 

[Neoxon]

It's not. If you can xenoblade chronicles and smash on the 3ds you could easily have Splatoon

Xenoblade was a Wii game so it isn't a fair comparison (& Xenoblade X definitely can't be run on the 3DS), & even then the game needs the n3DS to run properly. Smash on the 3DS came at the cost of the Ice Climbers & certain modes like Grab the Coins & the Item Frequency Meter.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

I mean, did you expect Codename S.T.E.A.M. to be the next big Nintendo IP? The Wonderful 101?

Those games were sent out to die with zero marketing. Code Name STEAM wasn't even in last year's E3 presentation.

On the other hand, Nintendo's actually pushing Splatoon, to the point that it's getting amiibos.

It'll do okay for a Wii U game, worst case scenario.

 

[Gbpackers31]

I will be surprised if it does, not only because of the Wii U, but I question how good the game will even be. I'm not that high on Splatoon, and I wonder if it even has lasting appeal. It looks to be very limited, and I could see a lot of mixed reviews. Maybe I'm missing something, but the game feels so overrated.

 

[Chobel]

What was the previous major?

Bayonetta 2 and before it The Wonderful 101

 

[Ivan Amiibo]

If it is amazing would people stop playing BF and COD for it?

the art aesthetic alone precludes this, being on the wii u doesn't help either

 

[Fiercedeity]

Xenoblade was a Wii game so it isn't a fair comparison (& Xenoblade X definitely can't be run on the 3DS), & even then the game needs the n3DS to run properly. Smash on the 3DS came at the cost of the Ice Climbers & certain modes like Grab the Coins & the Item Frequency Meter.

That's true but aside from graphics it could easily work.

 

[KooopaKid]

Depends on the reviews and word of mouth. If it's really good, Nintendo fans will pick it up and it should do fine. 1 million is guaranteed IMO.

 

[Raysod]

I don’t think that Splatoon can compete in the league of AAA games… (Call of Duty, Halo, Assasins Creed, Witcher, Killzone, Zelda, Mario etc)

It does not have the budget or the scope to do so, but from what I have seen so far the production values of the game are very high, as it happens with all Nintendo games…

I strongly believe that the way the multiplayer is designed in the game (no voice chat, random matchmaking, cannot play on line with friends or be with friends in the same team) will not make people to stick with the game for a long time…

In the financial side of the project, Splatoon will be profitable, as it didn’t cost much to produce anyway (small team), but I cannot predict how many copies will sell…

 

[Neoxon]

Those games were sent out to die with zero marketing. Code Name STEAM wasn't even in last year's E3 presentation.

On the other hand, Nintendo's actually pushing Splatoon, to the point that it's getting amiibos.

It'll do okay for a Wii U game, worst case scenario.

This guy gets it. With how big Amiibos are, I doubt that Splatoon will bomb since it has its own line of Amiibo figures backing it up. Though at worst, it'll be a slow-burn IP to where it reaches its true potential on the next console.

 

[Shauni]

I don't think Nintendo has any idea how to market a game that doesn't belong to their popular established ip's.

Hoping for the best though

I think they've actually done quite a good job at marketing Splatoon. The only thing that really lacks is stuff like TV time or internet ads, but that's something that Nintendo really hasn't been doing a lot lately for a lot of their IPs it seems.

 

[pitt_norton]

as long as i get to be playing this game...that's all i care about

 

[Bomber Bob]

I hope it doessnt bomb, but nobody knwos

 

[James Scott]

It will sell good enough to secure a sequel.

This is what I'm thinking. And thanks to amiibo they'll make enough money off of it to offset the Wii U factor

 

[Sendou]

If it is amazing would people stop playing BF and COD for it?

Will people stop playing Forza and Gran Turismo for Mario Kart?

Different kind of games. Yeah you shoot in both of them but that's about where the similarities end.

 

[NotLiquid]

That's true but aside from graphics it could easily work.

There's not really an accurate way to gauge this, especially considering the inking mechanic. Even if the game "looks" simple, there's a lot of more stuff going on in the game at once compared to something like Xenoblade, and personally I don't think the 3DS would be able to do it straight.

 

[Neoxon]

That's true but aside from graphics it could easily work.

Part of the reason Grab the Coins couldn't be run was because of the sheer amount of coins on the screen at once. Imagine that with ink going across the screen filling the floor with up to 8 Inkling Squids swimming in it. Even the n3DS would chug at well under 30fps running that, forget the OG 3DS. For reference, the Wii U runs Splatoon at 720p/60fps, & at 720p/30fps for local multiplayer (correct me if I'm wrong).

 

[Crimsonclaw111]

It'll sell alright but it won't have a long term future in regards to competition because of the handling of online. Only 1v1 local multiplayer stings too.

 

[Devilgunman]

If it is amazing would people stop playing BF and COD for it?

Well WiiU owners won't really have a choice since the new CoD and BF aren't coming out on WiiU.

 

[Fbh]

Oh, and the fact that by the time you can get something like the new Battlefront + all the premium content for $30 this game will still be $60 won't help that much either

Well WiiU owners won't really have a choice since the new CoD and BF aren't coming out on WiiU.

Which is a problem for the 2 people that only have a WiiU for gaming