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[hatchx]

32k worlwide or just in the US, can't remember.

That's US only. I don't think it's out in Japan/EU yet. It's also a shame, because it's a really fun game.

Just checked and you're both absolutely right (I don't care much for sales numbers tbh) ok then I will raise my prediction to 250k lifetime.

And yes; US only.

That's more or less what I predicted, but I think 250k-350k in NA, 100k in Japan, and another 200-300k in EU would be considered a success on WiiU.

 

[Neoxon]

Yeah unlike Codename: STEAM I expect it to sell well enough (even if not profitable) that they will at least try a sequel, probably on the next console.

FTFY

I kinda doubt that they'd attempt to scale down the game for the next portable, which I can only see being a hair under the Wii U.

 

[Regulus Tera]

I hope the game succeeds, but I'm betting it's gonna bomb. Shooter fans and cartoony squids splooging ink everywhere is something I would not fund if I were a businessman.

 

[TI82]

EU and JP haven't got this game yet.

Really? Then yeah around 32k sales then if I'm remembering right.

 

[friskykillface]

its not going to be huge, thats all i know
maybe over 100K the first month and 50-100K the following months


can we get a demo Nintendo , a new IP needs to be a demo

 

[Beelzebufo]

I'm still guessing that online playerbase won't be something too significant to worry about considering even Wii U CoD games have regular players that can sustain online play, and hell, even several Wii games that had online lasted all the way up until WFC closure in spite of some terrible online.

I think Splatoon will be dedicated enough to last until whenever they have a sequel.

But I mean, that was the Wii, not the Wii U. Big difference lol. Mario Kart 8 even saw a drop off, and that's Mario Kart 8!

Splatoon is also at a disadvantage because it basically is the online multiplayer.

 

[Alchemy]

It looks awesome, but unfortunately I don't see it selling all that well. The Wii U market is just too small, it would need a pretty crazy attach rate for a new IP to warrant a sequel.

 

[cloudstrife]

I mean, did you expect Codename S.T.E.A.M. to be the next big Nintendo IP? The Wonderful 101?

Precisely.

 

[NotLiquid]

But I mean, that was the Wii, not the Wii U. Big difference lol. Mario Kart 8 even saw a drop off, and that's Mario Kart 8!

Splatoon is also at a disadvantage because it basically is the online multiplayer.

It's still not exactly challenging to have to find an MK8 lobby with players. Also, the fact that as you say, Splatoon is the online multiplayer. makes me think that's more of a cause to believe it'll have legs to sustain online play, assuming that it performs well. With MK8 there's an entire audience who buys the game without even bothering to play online, while with Splatoon that's the entire point of it.

 

[Nosgoroth]

Let me look inside my arse... oh, here it is. 800k WW by the end of the year, sequel on the next home console.

 

[Circinus]

I think it's going to do moderately well. I'd say it can hit 1 million sales if the reception by consumers is very good.

It definitely won't be as popular as Mario Kart though, but it will probably garner a decent amount of following and sell about as well as the likes of Pikmin, Kirby, Star Fox, Kid Icarus etc.

I'm glad Nintendo was brave enough to really let Splatoon have its own identity, its own characters etc and not turn it into "Mario Paintball".

Sell as well as Pikmin 3. I don't think it'll be anywhere close to Mario Kart/Smash or sell as bad as W101.

Guessing Pikmin / Kirby levels. Popular enough to stick around but not a major force.

Yep, this is what I'm expecting as well.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

It depends on how bad the online mode sucks. (because we know it's going to suck)

 

[RurouniZel]

I think this game will lay the groundwork for a boosted sequel on their next platform.

If that sequel fails, then Splatoon will disappear.

 

[Beelzebufo]

It's still not exactly challenging to have to find an MK8 lobby with players. Also, the fact that as you say, Splatoon is the online multiplayer. makes me think that's more of a cause to believe it'll have legs to sustain online play, assuming that it performs well.

But Mario Kart 8 is Mario Kart haha, not some weird new shooter squid game. I guess it could go either way, but I could very easily see this going in the direction of "the only thing I can do in this game is get murdered online by people who are way better than me, I give up. I'm telling my friends not to buy this." a few months into launch.

 

[Air]

I think it'll do well enough to warrant a sequel. They're advertising it a lot more than their other new ip and as long as it plays well (most reports say that it does), it'll get some nice word of mouth and grow. Will it do smash or Mario kart levels? Probably not, but it certainly has the potential. It'll be one of like 3 shooter games on the system, so people starved for that stuff will definitely gravitate to it.

 

[Javier]

Splatoon is getting the third series of amiibo after Smash and Mario. That's pretty big.

I firmly believe the game will do well enough by Wii U standards and for Nintendo to justify keeping it around for the next generations as a mainstay IP, being one of Nintendo's "One Game per Console" series. We won't get Splatoon 3DS, but I think we will get one early on in the lifetime of Nintendo's next handheld, likely more focused on Single Player Campaign than online.

 

[NSESN]

It will not be a major IP, but will sell enough to arrange a sequel

 

[Zalman]

Animal Crossing didn't blow up until later. The first game will do well enough, but the sequel will probably do even better. At least that's what I think.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I hope the game succeeds, but I'm betting it's gonna bomb. Shooter fans and cartoony squids splooging ink everywhere is something I would not fund if I were a businessman.

Ratchet and Clank was proven that it can be a success though. Does the game have a full singleplayer campaign or is it focused on online?

 

[RulkezX]

I think it's really going to struggle, the only place I've seen it mentioned is on GAF.

Meanwhile I'm seeing the Witcher 3 get a spot before the Avengers at UK cinemas. It's another cool looking Nintendo title that Nintendo thinks will sell because "Nintendo".

 

[theprodigy]

Animal Crossing didn't blow up until later. The first game will do well enough, but the sequel will probably do even better. At least that's what I think.

first Animal Crossing sold over 2 million, that's a pretty big debut even if it got bigger later

 

[Seth Enosh]

But Mario Kart 8 is Mario Kart haha, not some weird new shooter squid game. I guess it could go either way, but I could very easily see this going in the direction of "the only thing I can do in this game is get murdered online by people who are way better than me, I give up. I'm telling my friends not to buy this." a few months into launch.

As a Wii U owner who has CoD ghosts and black ops 2, I'm not worried about this at all. Both those games still have an online community sufficient to turn on the console and hop into a game and they sold terribly. Splatoon will far outsell them.

 

[NotLiquid]

But Mario Kart 8 is Mario Kart haha, not some weird new shooter squid game. I guess it could go either way, but I could very easily see this going in the direction of "the only thing I can do in this game is get murdered online by people who are way better than me, I give up. I'm telling my friends not to buy this." a few months into launch.

Well the genius about Splatoon is that for the most of the part it's a concept that's easy to grasp.

I generally see where you're coming from though. I just don't think that it's going to be all that hard to find games further down the line.

 

[Zalman]

first Animal Crossing sold over 2 million, that's a pretty big debut even if it got bigger later

For sure. I'm just saying Splatoon has the potential to become a major IP, even if it might not seem like it at first glance. It will grow over time.

 

[vatstep]

I think it'll be a one-and-done series.

 

[CryptiK]

Its totally going to flop. It doesnt have anything the mainstream audience want.

 

[alvis.exe]

I think it'll do OK. There seems to be a lot more excitement for it than there ever was for the Wonderful 101 or Codename S.T.E.A.M. judging by the amount of fanart that exists for it at least. Didn't Wonderful 101 only do like 5k its first week in Japan? There's no way Splatoon would do that badly haha.

 

[Nirolak]

FTFY

I kinda doubt that they'd attempt to scale down the game for the next portable, which I can only see being a hair under the Wii U.

Why not?

They did it am with 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, Animal Crossing, and Metroid Prime.

 

[foxuzamaki]

SPlatoon is being marketed to the point where they're selling amiibos for them, and peopel are outright saying it will bomb? What?

 

[Ryce]

It's an original IP on Wii U, so it's not going to sell millions of copies, but it'll probably get great reviews and garner a cult following. I could definitely see Nintendo referencing Splatoon in other games and releasing a sequel on NX regardless of how well it does at retail. It'll be the next Pikmin or Rhythm Heaven -- "minor" in the grand scheme of things, but inherently more important than something like The Wonderful 101 on account of it being made in-house. Nintendo rarely forgets its own EAD properties.

 

[Neoxon]

Why not?

They did it am with 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, Animal Crossing, and Metroid Prime.

Splatoon seems like an IP that's better-suited for consoles.

 

[PixalTheCat]

I just don't see this type of game lasting on Nintendo's network where you can't invite friends, can't talk to them, and no form of communication to people that could have become your online friends.

It's sad really, because if it had this, I think it would be perfect.

 

[Fmal]

Based on literally zero evidence and knowing nothing about the game other than its basic concepts and how it looks, I don't think it's going to be wildly successful. Even if the shooting and movement is fun, I don't trust Nintendo to do a good job with the online, and that's basically what makes or breaks shooters.

 

[DaBoss]

I think it'll be similar to Pikmin on the GameCube, but not sell as much obviously. And Splatoon doesn't have the benefit of Miyamoto being deeply involved in its creation. It'll likely get another iteration on their next handheld/console.

And god help us all if Nintendo thinks amiibos are the answer to selling games like how some of you are suggesting. More bullshit on-disc content locked. Hooray!

Splatoon seems like an IP that's better-suited for consoles.

It doesn't really have anything to make it home console only.

 

[LX_Theo]

It relies on taking off as a local and online multiplayer game with kids.
I think it could do well though.

Kids would have to own Wii Us before this happens.

 

[hatchx]

Ratchet and Clank was proven that it can be a success though. Does the game have a full singleplayer campaign or is it focused on online?

It has a full single-player campaign yes.

This isn't Evolve or Titanfall. It can be played alone. There's even a giant hub world specifically for the single-player (we still havn't seen it yet though, but IIRC hearing it's big with different areas to unlock)

 

[James Scott]

Precisely.

I don't think the W101 comparison works too well here. W101, as much as I love it

Spoiler

bless PG and Nintendo for making it

, was a really weird concept that was very hard to market. Just look at it, it's also hard to get into unless you concentrate a lot which resulted in lacking reviews (sub 80%). So if it's hard to market the concept and it's not rated really high on MC, the game achieving high sales would be really hard. I imagine on any platform even the original Wii.
Code Name Steam is similar to the W101 as it's a weird concept, doesn't look very good (visually), new IP, and wasn't received really well either. Maybe it'll do better now that its biggest problem has been improved.
Splatoon is easier to market, and they have been pushing it more than any other game outside of Smash. It doesn't seem too hard to get into and has been previewing well so I'm guessing it'll review well enough (~85%) unless something went wrong.
Nintendo seems adamant on pushing the game, and it's not like no game has come close to a million before.
IIRC, over 8 titles have surpassed a million units. Several have surpassed 500k like DK, Pikmin, Bayo2, LC:U, etc (might be wrong on some of these)
I'm not expecting massive sales, dont' think anyone should be, but ~750-1 million (LTD) if Nintendo keeps pushing as they seemingly have since last year and if it's received well seem likely to me at least. These games clearly don't cost as much as most PS4/X1 titles so with that much combined with amiibo profits, I think it'll be a success for Nintendo.

Splatoon seems like an IP that's better-suited for consoles.

I do think we'll see Nintendo make 2 versions next gen like Mario Kart and Smash

 

[Beelzebufo]

Splatoon seems like an IP that's better-suited for consoles.

Gotta agree with you there. It's like Smash Bros in that regard.

Spoiler

What are you talking about

 

[BadMediaKarma]

Splatoon seems like an IP that's better-suited for consoles.

That's just your opinion. The evidence of them porting console games to their handhelds has been evident for a while.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

I still expect it to bomb, but I love the effort Nintendo is putting into marketing it.

 

[thefro]

It'll have a decent start, slow-burn, and the sequel will blow up like crazy on NX.

 

[Cleve]

I still expect it to bomb, but I love the effort Nintendo is putting into marketing it.

Yeah, I mean I want to see it do well, but the realist side of me sees it bombing.

 

[foxuzamaki]

I still expect it to bomb, but I love the effort Nintendo is putting into marketing it.

please explain what a bomb is to you, saying that this will outright bomb is such a pessimistic thing, I mean, they're marketing it a hell of alot more than W101 and codename STEAM. Do you guys only think in terms of games either bombing or being the biggest thing since bread?

 

[-Horizon-]

Yes, I think it will be their next major IP and will signal the start of their new renaissance.

 

[Beelzebufo]

please explain what a bomb is to you, saying that this will outright bomb is such a pessimistic thing, I mean, they're marketing it a hell of alot more than W101 and codename STEAM. Do you guys only think in terms of games either bombing or being the biggeest thing since bread?

I'm honestly expecting something around the levels of STEAM, in reception and sales. Expand the sales to if STEAM was released in more areas of course.

 

[Gaiaknight]

the game will do pikmin 3 WW numbers so close to a million units which is really good for a new IP. Also the people comparing this game to W101 and bayonetta 2 those games were doomed from the start despite being amazing games as platinum games has a hard time selling there games despite them being amazing games.

 

[ElBoxyBrown]

It has a full single-player campaign yes.

This isn't Evolve or Titanfall. It can be played alone. There's even a giant hub world specifically for the single-player (we still havn't seen it yet though, but IIRC hearing it's big with different areas to unlock)

Isn't the single-player campaign just offline bot matches but with objectives?

 

[Phediuk]

lol, no.

If it's any consolation, though, it will do better than Wonderful 101.

 

[JoeM86]

Isn't the single-player campaign just offline bot matches but with objectives?

No it's not

 

[James Scott]

Isn't the single-player campaign just offline bot matches but with objectives?

No, it's 1 v 1. One on the gamepad and the other on the TV. The mode they showed off has you trying to pop balloons while fending off your opponent