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Doom & Gloom: Why next-gen consoles will "fail"

I don't believe that at all. I think overall next-gen sales will be similar to this gen's sales. Companies will learn from the mistakes of this gen. New Halo, GT, COD, and Mario will keep many players around.
 
Seperate consoles not selling much anymore would be incentive enough.
It's either going there or everything will eventually converge into "portable something" in one melting pot. Like "PC" or "portable machines".

Having a unified console would be fantastic though. The hardware could be designed out of a consortium and specs could be agreed on for at least 10 years. At that point, any hardware maker could actually make a machine, just like with DVDs, CDs, etc. The hardware market would actually have a huge boom. For devs and publishers that would be fantastic and a fiscal dream in the mean that they potential sales / userbase would suddenly triple (at least!!). Finally, for gamers it would also be a dream because the competition would rely entirely on the software side. This means general quality of games going up.

Ask Trip Hawkins how well that model works. It's a pipe dream. There's way too much (potential) upside to being the 1st party, and way too many moving parts to manage to make that work. Movie players are simple and can remain static for a very long time. Game players are not the same thing at all.
 
Analysts lump game consoles into the same general product category as the iPad and they think the average consumer doesn't give a shit about playing games on their TV anymore.

They may be right.
 
For me its prices. I know I'm not ready to buy $350+ consoles all over again, not to mention all the launch games that come out for said systems. I'm happy enough with my PS3, and can be for years.
 
When you have EA a NASDAQ-100 company that is being approached by Nexon for a buyout, with all the giants catering to the most profitable and least sustainable model of business.. You have to wonder what this industry is coming to. Developers are being bought out left and right, or being closed down. It's only the extremely sustainable and efficient devs that will hold out through this awkward storm. However the giants will emerge from this slump stronger than ever, and I'm hoping that they won't sweep up the industry completely.
 
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I'm excited for all of them. Whos with me! *crickets*
Any gamer is, surely?

I don't really understand what video game "analysts" do and why they get paid for it. It doesn't seem to matter if they make predictions that are way off the mark. I can understand why handhelds may suffer a bit due to phones and tablets eating away at that market, but I can't see why sales of home consoles would suddenly shrink by 50%.

A lot of analysts were extremely pessimistic about Wii sales - in fact, I don't think I read a single prediction that had the Wii outselling Sony and MS, so I don't really get why anyone takes these predictions seriously. Maybe I'm not fully understanding what purpose they serve though. If I had a financial advisor that missed the mark as much as these video game analysts do, I'd fire the motherfucker, I know that much.
 
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