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[Tom_Cody]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/inde...te-evan-mcmullin-leads-in-utah--new-poll.html

Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin topped both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a new Utah poll released Wednesday.

The survey, from Emerson College, showed that McMullin had 31 percent of support — while Trump had 27 percent, Clinton had 24 percent, and Johnson had 5 percent in the state. The margin of error for the poll was 3.6 percent, according to a release detailing the results.

Just the latest data point of Trump implosion.

Here's an interview if you want to see who the guy is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7Mwf6qFDDk

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

People will tell you Emerson is bad because they don't call people with cell phones but that would be Evan's better demographic being excluded, young Utah conservatives. It's possible he's doing even better than this.

 

[diehard]

Don't know shit about this guy but.. awesome!

 

[Mac_Lane]

I have a tremendous problem in Utah. The best problem, believe me.

 

[Netherscourge]

6 less electoral votes for Trump!

 

[perfectchaos007]

Wow I wonder if a write-in candidate has ever won a state before.

 

[FortuneFaded]

Given that voting for third party is voting for Trump (that's what I learned on this forum), the numbers are actually Trump 63 - Clinton 24. A healthy lead.

 

[sethbot]

Wow I wonder if a write-in candidate has ever won a state before.

I don't think he's a write-in candidate in Utah, but I could be wrong.

 

[Mac_Lane]

Wow I wonder if a write-in candidate has ever won a state before.

McMullin's not a write-in, he's actually on the ballot in Utah.

 

[Mushroomer25]

Hey man, the fewer red states this year the better. As long as Clinton continues sitting on a safe lead over at least 270 Electoral votes, I got no beef with him.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

It's pretty incredible that, of all people, this nobody who came in to the game so late may be the third party candidate that actually wins a state. Pretty awesome.

 

[Tom_Cody]

It's pretty incredible that, of all people, this nobody who came in to the game so late may be the third party candidate that actually wins a state. Pretty awesome.

Utah doesn't like Trump for numerous reasons and Johnson hasn't been able to get traction there due to his drug stance.

Utah is the perfect storm in favor of McMullin. He's unlikely to get ahead of Johnson anywhere else, and he's only even on the ballots of a few states.

 

[Rapscallion]

Go for it Mccwhoeveryouare.

Take that red state from Trump!

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Why is Romney not endorsing this guy already?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The way 2016 has gone, I half expect no electoral vote majority and the House deciding to elect President McMullin as the compromise choice.

 

[piratepwnsninja]

There was actually an interesting article on 538 about how he could end up becoming president in a really weird scenario.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

 

[Linkura]

I had to look up details on this guy, though I'd heard his name before. He's Mormon. It all makes sense now.

 

[RustyNails]

Emerson is a shit tier poll. But change is afoot, and it will help drive the narrative that Utah is a battleground. Personally I think McMuffin is down by 2-3 points.

 

[TheClimaxan]

Is he officially backed by the Mormons? I have cousins at BYU who have been going nuts over this dude for the last few weeks on their FB pages.

 

[madstarr12]

Lol, no way! McMuffin may be able to be more successful than Johnson this election (in terms of electoral votes)!

 

[sflufan]

Why is Romney not endorsing this guy already?

That's a big mystery to me. A Romney endorsement -- and you just know that Romney will be voting for McMullin -- would all but guarantee:

(a) a "real" conservative wins Utah, and
(b) gives the bird to the Trumpster Fire (which Romney really wants to do)

C'mon, Mittens! Endorse the guy already!

 

[RoKKeR]

Poll quality aside, this will provide another good blast of media for his campaign as we turn for the final 3 weeks. I'll be putting my ballot for Utah in the mail this weekend, and that'll be +1 for McMullin.

To quote myself from Poligaf:

RE: Responses on the last page about McMullin in Utah...

I am certainly not voting for McMullin for any "strategic" reasons as one poster may have suggested. I have no hardline party affiliation. I recognize Utah's fairly inconsequential position in the electoral math, especially considering its history as a solid red state. (as well as Hillary's current standing in the polls, the electoral map in general, and her chances of winning) I also am drawn to a principled, conservative candidate that is distanced from the horrible baggage of the Republican party. (though there are, of course, a few areas I disagree with him on... this is politics after all) Finally, I do recognize that this is in many ways a "protest vote" – however, this protest vote comes in a state that has the highest chance of going 3rd party in decades, with the opportunity to send a message, albeit likely and ultimately inconsequential, about the choices offered in this election and the future of many conservative principles that have been hijacked by a truly dangerous candidate. (this certainly won't be the last time we see McMullin, in my opinion) That opportunity is exciting to me, and is why I feel more comfortable putting my name behind a 3rd party candidate in Utah as opposed to another state in which their odds would be even longer. (or the chances of spoiling would be higher)

I would also love to see Utah go not-Red as a big middle finger to Trump.

At the end of the day, it's a choice I have put a lot of thought into over the past few weeks and is something that I am energized about – something I was not expecting earlier in the year.

And yeah, as the posters above has said a Romney endorsement would be huge.

 

[Iksenpets]

Is he officially backed by the Mormons? I have cousins at BYU who have been going nuts over this dude for the last few weeks on their FB pages.

Churches can't endorse, but he's a Mormon BYU grad, so the appeal is clearly there. He was pretty much hand picked to appeal to that audience and keep Utah from Trump.

Someone really needs to get out and poll Idaho, too. McMullin could be similarly competitive there, especially if Dems break his way to deny that state to Trump.

 

[Tom_Cody]

Why is Romney not endorsing this guy already?

He probably will prior to election day. He's already supporting him behind the scenes with donor email lists, etc.

 

[Bowdz]

His name was Egg McMuffin. His name was Egg McMuffin. HIS NAME WAS EGG MCMUFFIN.

 

[FelixOrion]

Don't know shit about this guy but.. awesome!

He's a former policy adviser and former CIA operative. He's hold fairly pretty moderate/orthodox Republican positions. He's a Utah-native, Mormon, and has is using Romney's previous campaign list; Mormon's have a severe disdain for Trump but are generally conservative, so he's literally got the wind in his back, even with as late of a start as he got (he only announced his candidacy in like August).

Wow I wonder if a write-in candidate has ever won a state before.

He's not a write-in Utah, he's on the ballot (albiet as an independent candidate). He would be the first non-major party candidate to win a state since George Wallace's racist ass one a bunch of Deep South states in 1968 and (I think) the first non-partisan candidate to win votes/states since George Washington.

 

[SomedayTheFire]

He's a pretty awful person too anyway.

 

[Thaedolus]

All my Mormon friends and family seem to be voting for this guy based on facebook feeds, except the rare liberals who are voting for Killary.

 

[diablos991]

It'll be quite the show if he prevents the candidates from hitting the magic number and it goes to the house.

This guy has a chance (albeit small) of becoming president.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

That's a big mystery to me. A Romney endorsement -- and you just know that Romney will be voting for McMullin -- would all but guarantee:

(a) a "real" conservative wins Utah, and
(b) gives the bird to the Trumpster Fire (which Romney really wants to do)

C'mon, Mittens! Endorse the guy already!

If Romney really likes the guy, maybe he's holding onto a fantasy hope that he wins Utah, there's an electoral tie and the House chooses him.

In which case, if he were holding onto that microscopic chance, publicly endorsing McMullin could end up with the guy getting too many votes across the nation and pulling from the votes Trump would need to effect a tie.

McMullin is in a really unique and strange position where he needs to hope that he wins a single state and that the rest of the pieces fall into a perfect tie.

 

[Aaronrules380]

He's a pretty awful person too anyway.

I mean, all that matters is that Trump is now losing a state that should have been a given for him

 

[SDCowboy]

It'll be quite the show if he prevents the candidates from hitting the magic number and it goes to the house.

This guy has a chance (albeit small) of becoming president.

He only has a chance of winning one state, and it's one Hillary likely wasn't going to win anyway.

 

[besada]

All my Mormon friends and family seem to be voting for this guy based on facebook feeds, except the rare liberals who are voting for Killary.

Same here. And I have been lauding and encouraging them.

 

[Futureman]

It'll be quite the show if he prevents the candidates from hitting the magic number and it goes to the house.

This guy has a chance (albeit small) of becoming president.

This is so, so extremely unlikely. He's almost definitely just taking EVs away from Trump in red states.

What percent Mormon is the Utah population?

 

[HStallion]

I wonder if Trump will start shitting all over this guy and make him even more well known.

 

[Slayven]

The GOP needs to bleed to learn.

 

[sflufan]

What percent Mormon is the Utah population?

About 60% - I honestly thought it was higher!

 

[Aaronrules380]

He only has a chance of winning one state, and it's one Hillary wasn't going to win anyway...

I think if this scenario were to happen (and it's incredibly unlikely), it would be preventing a Trump win and not a Hilary win (since Utah as you have stated, is a red state). So really, if this situation happens, I'd probably still take him over Trump as president

 

[FelixOrion]

Why is Romney not endorsing this guy already?

That is a huge mystery, especially because it would still probably bring otherwise disaffected Republican voters to the polls for down ballot contests while simultaneously fucking with Trump; Clinton wouldn't win Utah, Trump wouldn't win Utah, and down ballot Repub. candidates would be unaffected. It's a perfect storm and Romney would be like lighting a solid rocket booster under McMullin's campaign in Utah.

There was actually an interesting article on 538 about how he could end up becoming president in a really weird scenario.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

He ''''''could'''''' but as the article points out, he also need Clinton/Trump to be close enough that Utah's measly 6 votes could deadlock the EC, which is looking less and less likely every day that passes.

Is he officially backed by the Mormons? I have cousins at BYU who have been going nuts over this dude for the last few weeks on their FB pages.

The LDS Church doesn't make political endorsements, IIRC.

 

[studyguy]

Utah wasn't going blue in this or any other reality.
This only hurts Trump with any reasonable person's prediction for path to presidency.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

What percent Mormon is the Utah population?

Something like right around 60%

 

[makingmusic476]

I've seen some of the evangelicals on my Facebook feed talking about voting for McMullin where they can, in the hopes he'll take enough states to prevent both Clinton and Trump from getting 270.

 

[iamblades]

Sad thing is that Clinton is ahead by such a large margin that this won't have any effect on the overall.

I'm in the mood for a proper constitutional crisis.

 

[Aaronrules380]

Utah wasn't going blue in this or any other reality.
This only hurts Trump with any reasonable person's prediction for path to presidency.

I mean, it wasn't completely impossible for Hilary to be ahead with McMullin and Trump sharing the normally republican vote (I believe some polls even had her tied with Trump and ahead of McMullinbecause of this). But under normal circumstances yeah, it would not go blue

 

[Velcro Fly]

If seen some of the evangelicals on my Facebook feed talking about voting for McMullin where they can, in the hopes he'll take enough states to prevent both Clinton and Trump from getting 270.

Democracy works!

 

[Iksenpets]

This is so, so extremely unlikely. He's almost definitely just taking EVs away from Trump in red states.

What percent Mormon is the Utah population?

Like 70. I think he probably wins Utah. He's campaigning heavily in Idaho, too, which is only ~25%, but still seems doable if he puts together a coalition of Mormons, anti-Trump non-Mormon conservatives, and Democrats.

Also there's no way he actually tips the election to the House, because it would require Hillary collapsing 7 points in three weeks. It would be hilarious though. The House installing an ex-CIA agent who didn't even crack 1% of the national vote would be the ultimate troll the the conspiracy-theorist right backing Trump.

 

[FelixOrion]

This is so, so extremely unlikely. He's almost definitely just taking EVs away from Trump in red states.

What percent Mormon is the Utah population?

62.2% and declining based on the last census

It'll be quite the show if he prevents the candidates from hitting the magic number and it goes to the house.

This guy has a chance (albeit small) of becoming president.

Same here. And I have been lauding and encouraging them.

Same. One I do research with has even asked for info on him (which I happily provided; he was gonna vote Johnson but probably can't vote in Utah anyways because he's probably changed residence to here).

 

[SDCowboy]

Utah wasn't going blue in this or any other reality.
This only hurts Trump with any reasonable person's prediction for path to presidency.

Correct. Barring some absurdly ridiculous turn of events, Utah going to McMullin would only further help Hillary.

 

[Hellsing321]

Correct. Barring some absurdly ridiculous turn of events, Utah going to McMullin only further helps Hillary.

Well it at least doesn't hurt her, but it certainly will hurt Trump's already battered ego.

 

[Miles X]

Utah wasn't going blue in this or any other reality.
This only hurts Trump with any reasonable person's prediction for path to presidency.

But in this reality it just might. Lets see how much McMullin splits the Republican voter base.

If Hillary gets similar Obama 08 numbers and McMullin and Trump split the average 700k vote ...