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[HStallion]

What percent Mormon is the Utah population?

Going by Tinder profiles, too many.

 

[Lord Frieza]

It'll be quite the show if he prevents the candidates from hitting the magic number and it goes to the house.

This guy has a chance (albeit small) of becoming president.

Even if he pulls off a win in Utah, the odds of it being any spoiler factor is pretty low as of now.

 

[Aaronrules380]

Correct. Barring some absurdly ridiculous turn of events, Utah going to McMullin only further helps Hillary.

I mean, it's more neutral for Hilary than anything. You need over half the electoral votes to become president, and a republican controlled house won't pick Hilary in the event of a deadlock, so whether Trump or anyone else but her wins a heavy red state makes no difference. McMullin would only be helping Hilary if he split the vote enough for her to win Utah, which is unlikely, but actually not impossible

 

[sflufan]

What I would give to have McMullin appear from nowhere at tonight's debate, rush the stage, coldclock the Trumpster Fire using his CIA operative skills, take the podium, and declare "I'm the Republican nominee now."

 

[FelixOrion]

If seen some of the evangelicals on my Facebook feed talking about voting for McMullin where they can, in the hopes he'll take enough states to prevent both Clinton and Trump from getting 270.

He's actually on the ballot in only very few states (he's formally on the ballot in only 84 EV worth of states) and only really campaigning in Utah (Mormon majority) and Idaho (significant Mormon minority):

Dark blue: on ballot
Light blue: Write-in only
Grey: No access to votes

 

[SDCowboy]

I mean, it's more neutral for Hilary than anything. You need over half the electoral votes to become president, and a republican controlled house won't pick Hilary in the event of a deadlock, so whether Trump or anyone else but her wins a heavy red state makes no difference. McMullin would only be helping Hilary if he split the vote enough for her to win Utah, which is unlikely, but actually not impossible

The odds of a deadlock are almost zero. Taking a state away from Trump, that she wasn't likely to win anyway, only helps Hillary under any any logical circumstances. Period.

 

[piratepwnsninja]

What I would give to have McMullin appear from nowhere at tonight's debate, rush the stage, coldclock the Trumpster Fire using his CIA operative skills, take the podium, and declare "I'm the Republican nominee now."

 

[Dunedain_Ranger]

It'll be quite the show if he prevents the candidates from hitting the magic number and it goes to the house.

This guy has a chance (albeit small) of becoming president.

Nope if neither win that magic number Vermin supreme will get the nods bruhs his plan is fail proof

 

[studyguy]

It doesn't help Hillary to have Utah go independent since UT never mattered to her, it doesn't help Trump at all though and hurts him as his path requires it.

There are reasonable paths to victory that include certain states and under virtually any model if UT was blue then the RNC is already at DEFCON 1 crisis mode. The fact that they're struggling to pull a reliably red state in just shows how fucked up shit is for Trump. If the Dems can somehow cobble up enough support to swing it in their way through a boost of enthusiasm from being so close then great, I wouldn't hold my fucking breath though. That isn't to say they should vote independent instead, but all the same it's basically another thorn in Trump's side.

McMuffins out here for real.

 

[makingmusic476]

He's actually on the ballot in only very few states (he's formally on the ballot in only 84 EV worth of states) and only really campaigning in Utah (Mormon majority) and Idaho (significant Mormon minority):

That's what I thought. I saw someone post an article with the strategy, saying something like "is this feasible??", with a bunch of commenters saying things like "worth a shot!"

It's not going to achieve their goal, but it sounds like it could steal a decent amount of votes in those states.

 

[Aaronrules380]

The odds of a deadlock is almost zero. Taking a state away from Trump, that she wasn't likely to win anyway, only helps Hillary under any any logical circumstances. Period.

Not really. She still has to get a majority of the votes to win, so whether Trump gets more or less of the remaining minority is irrelevant. Hilary winning is only related to her getting the majority of the electoral votes. Any votes that go to anyone else, be it Trump or McMullin or Johnson, will effectively be the same to Hilary

 

[Velcro Fly]

The scenarios for her losing outright are far more likely than a 269-269 tie or that McMullin winning Utah would stop Trump from getting 270. Trump needs Utah. Him losing it means he's probably losing pretty bad everywhere else.

 

[SDCowboy]

It doesn't help Hillary to have Utah go independent since UT never mattered to her, it doesn't help Trump at all though and hurts him as his path requires it.

Sure it does. It takes votes away from Trump in a state he was otherwise likely to win. It's not just vote gains for Hillary that help her. Any that can be taken away from Trump have a similar effect.

 

[Aaronrules380]

Sure it does. It takes votes away from Trump. It's not just vote gains for Hillary that help her. Any that can be taken away from Trump have a similar effect.

Taking away votes from Trump is irrelevant if Hilary doesn't win a state, since the popular vote isn't what decides elections. Third parties aren't spoilers because they win states, they're spoilers because they make states that could've been wins into losses. It hurts Trump (In that it makes it harder to get a majority and might lead to a deadlock), but it doesn't contribute to Hilary's majority at all. This is a case where hurting Trump does not actually equate to helping Hilary

 

[RoKKeR]

What I would give to have McMullin appear from nowhere at tonight's debate, rush the stage, coldclock the Trumpster Fire using his CIA operative skills, take the podium, and declare "I'm the Republican nominee now."

Lmao, this would be incredible.

 

[FStubbs]

It's pretty incredible that, of all people, this nobody who came in to the game so late may be the third party candidate that actually wins a state. Pretty awesome.

Will he be the first in modern times to win a state without running as an explicitly KKK candidate? (George Wallace and Strom Thurmond won states)

 

[SDCowboy]

Taking away votes from Trump is irrelevant if Hilary doesn't win a state, since the popular vote isn't what decides elections. Third parties aren't spoilers because they win states, they're spoilers because they make states that could've been wins into losses. It hurts Trump (In that it makes it harder to get a majority and might lead to a deadlock), but it doesn't contribute to Hilary's majority at all. This is a case where hurting Trump does not actually equate to helping Hilary

I'm not talking popular vote. I'm talking about electoral. Anytime the competition doesn't gain electoral votes in a state they otherwise were going to, helps the other main candidate. Sure it wouldn't net Hillary any extra, but it would keep electoral votes away from Trump that he would have otherwise received.

 

[SatoAilDarko]

So would some people voting for Hilary vote for McMullin with them thinking it's better to hurt Trump?

 

[Iksenpets]

He's actually on the ballot in only very few states (he's formally on the ballot in only 84 EV worth of states) and only really campaigning in Utah (Mormon majority) and Idaho (significant Mormon minority):

He also probably guarantees Arizona flips to blue. Mormons are only a few percent there, and he's just a write in, but it's enough to kill the GOP's shot there with the election as close as it is.

 

[ascii42]

Will he be the first in modern times to win a state without running as an explicitly KKK candidate? (George Wallace and Strom Thurmond won states)

Yeah, have to go back to 1912 and 1924 otherwise.

 

[Aaronrules380]

I'm not talking popular vote. I'm talking about electoral. Anytime the competition doesn't gain electoral votes in a state they otherwise were going to, helps the other main candidate. Sure it wouldn't net Hillary any extra, but it would keep electoral votes away from Trump that he would have otherwise received.

But Hillary winning isn't actually dependent on Trump's number of electoral votes. It is only dependent on her getting at least 270 of the electoral vote. So no, it doesn't help Hillary, because it doesn't contribute to her getting 270. It might help her if there was a chance a potential deadlock would go to her, but there really isn't. Whether Trump has 269 or 263 electoral votes makes no difference, since the relative number of electoral votes is meaningless. Hillary's only path to victory is a majority, and if she gets a majority, than it doesn't matter how large that majority is.

TL;DR: The number of electoral votes Trump gets is not really relevant to a Hillary victory. The only relevant number for a democrat victory is how many electoral votes HILLARY gets.

 

[Lord Frieza]

That's what I thought. I saw someone post an article with the strategy, saying something like "is this feasible??", with a bunch of commenters saying things like "worth a shot!"

It's not going to achieve their goal, but it sounds like it could steal a decent amount of votes in those states.

He's not even making a blip on the radar outside Utah, from what I can see, so I doubt it'll matter outside that state.

 

[sflufan]

So would some people voting for Hilary vote for McMullin with them thinking it's better to hurt Trump?

If I was a Clinton voter in Utah, it would be something I would give serious consideration to if McMullin maintained a slim lead over the Trumpster Fire or was narrowly behind and Clinton's chances appeared remote.

 

[border]

Denying Electoral Votes to Trump almost certainly helps Hillary. I don't know why people are so invested in claiming that it isn't helpful to the Clinton campaign unless she wins.

If I am a cornerback and I bat down a pass that was going to be a touchdown otherwise, then I have helped and benefitted my team.

 

[BigBeauford]

Those morons, voting with their conscience for a third party cand....oh wait now we are okay with it?

 

[SDCowboy]

But Hillary winning isn't actually dependent on Trump's number of electoral votes. It is only dependent on her getting at least 270 of the electoral vote. So no, it doesn't help Hillary, because it doesn't contribute to her getting 270. It might help her if there was a chance a potential deadlock would go to her, but there really isn't. Whether Trump has 269 or 263 electoral votes makes no difference, since the relative number of electoral votes is meaningless. Hillary's only path to victory is a majority, and if she gets a majority, than it doesn't matter how large that majority is.

TL;DR: The number of electoral votes Trump gets is not really relevant to a Hillary victory. The only relevant number for a democrat victory is how many electoral votes HILLARY gets.

Ok, fair enough.

 

[studyguy]

I'm not talking popular vote. I'm talking about electoral. Anytime the competition doesn't gain electoral votes in a state they otherwise were going to, helps the other main candidate. Sure it wouldn't net Hillary any extra, but it would keep electoral votes away from Trump that he would have otherwise received.

It doesn't change her EVs though, and it never was.
I get what you're saying but Trump losing a state dems would never win doesn't gain her anything other than better optics. At best it depresses Trump voters and sure it might stop him from getting to 270, but it doesn't equate to any formal boost in her EVs.

 

[border]

Those morons, voting with their conscience for a third party cand....oh wait now we are okay with it?

I'm pretty sure most people here rank 3rd party voters over Trump supporters.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Amazed that Romney and Huntsman haven't endorsed him.

 

[Aaronrules380]

Denying Electoral Votes to Trump almost certainly helps Hillary. I don't know why people are so invested in claiming that it isn't helpful to the Clinton campaign unless she wins.

If I am a cornerback and I bat down a pass that was going to be a touchdown otherwise, then I have helped and benefitted my team.

The difference is that votes relative to the other candidate are irrelevant, since you need more than half of the total electoral votes. If Hilary gets enough to win, it doesn't matter how many Trump has. Only winning a state helps Hillary. Trump losing makes no difference since she is technically not competing directly with Trump. It hurts Trump because it could prevent him from getting to 270. But since Hillary still won't get closer to 270, it makes no difference to her

 

[ascii42]

Denying Electoral Votes to Trump almost certainly helps Hillary. I don't know why people are so invested in claiming that it isn't helpful to the Clinton campaign unless she wins.

If I am a cornerback and I bat down a pass that was going to be a touchdown otherwise, then I have helped and benefitted my team.

The thing is, because Hillary needs a majority, and not a plurality, only electoral votes towards her help her. So it's like your team is down, and your cornerback needed to intercept the pass and run it back for a touchdown. Yeah, batting it down helps you lose by less (or maybe makes you tie), but you still lose. Actually that's not a good analogy for a couple reasons, including why would the other team be passing when they should be running out the clock. Eh, whatever.

With all that being said, I'm rooting for McMullin. Not because I think it helps Clinton, but because it makes Trump look worse.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

The best thing about McMullin potentially winning Utah is that it serves as a real wake-up call to the GOP that they can't just rely on pandering to the alt-right and retain traditionally conservative states. It means little if Hillary wins Florida or North Carolina; yes, she'll win the Presidency, but those are swing states in any contest. But when an emphatically conservative state rejects your specific brand of conservatism for a different conservative candidate? That raises red flags. Now if you're hopelessly partisan and just want to see the Republicans implode on themselves, then McMullin is problematic because you don't want the GOP doing some soul-searching for how it defines conservative in the months after the election. But we need a functioning conservative party in this country, and it can't be the party of racist twitter trolls. If Trump is losing to both the left and the middle-right, it's more meaningful than just losing to Democrats.

 

[Slashlen]

The difference is that votes relative to the other candidate are irrelevant, since you need more than half of the total electoral votes. If Hilary gets enough to win, it doesn't matter how many Trump has. Only winning a state helps Hillary. Trump losing makes no difference since she is technically not competing directly with Trump. It hurts Trump because it could prevent him from getting to 270. But since Hillary still won't get closer to 270, it makes no difference to her

Considering that it's a GOP-held congress, I don't think it even hurts Trump. If they're both denied 270, congress just votes him in after.

 

[Robdraggoo]

Why is Romney not endorsing this guy already?

Wasn't this Romney and krstals guy. Didn't they talk him into running?

 

[Mr. Pointy]

If McMuffin can get Utah, do you think the GOP will try to get him to run as their 2020 candidate? Like, game their primary process to make it easy for him to win it.

 

[Aaronrules380]

Considering that it's a GOP-held congress, I don't think it even hurts Trump. If they're both denied 270, congress just votes him in after.

It hurts Trump in that I don't think most of the GOP congressmen like Trump, and there's a chance that a deadlock would go to McMullin instead if it came to that

 

[FelixOrion]

If McMuffin can get Utah, do you think the GOP will try to get him to run as their 2020 candidate? Like, game their primary process to make it easy for him to win it.

I doubt it. I'd guess the 2020 GOP primary field is just as crowded and the GOP establishment will write-off McMullin's success as a mixture of how bad Trump was and a home field advantage for McMullin in Utah that might not translate to a national picture.

 

[Iksenpets]

If McMuffin can get Utah, do you think the GOP will try to get him to run as their 2020 candidate? Like, game their primary process to make it easy for him to win it.

No way. He's still just a random congressional staffer. He's only here because the official candidate was so incredibly odious, and because no career Republican had the guts to go through with a spoiler campaign against the GOP. Some elected GOP governor or Senator who managed to keep their head above this mess this year will get the nom in 2020.

 

[Slashlen]

It hurts Trump in that I don't think most of the GOP congressmen like Trump, and there's a chance that a deadlock would go to McMullin instead if it came to that

I don't think it's realistic to expect them to line up behind someone who won a single state. Maybe if he got 8 or so. If opposition to him was that universal in the party they would have done some shady shit to deny him the nomination months ago.

 

[SDCowboy]

I wonder if he could possibly split enough of the R vote for Hillary to win AZ.

 

[FelixOrion]

Considering that it's a GOP-held congress, I don't think it even hurts Trump. If they're both denied 270, congress just votes him in after.

It hurts Trump in that I don't think most of the GOP congressmen like Trump, and there's a chance that a deadlock would go to McMullin instead if it came to that

The 538 piece on his route at the presidency considers this:

Step 3: Win in the House

After that, the 12th Amendment dictates that the top three presidential vote-getters’ names are sent to the incoming House, with each state delegation getting one vote. The top two electoral-vote-receiving vice presidential candidates are sent to the Senate.

The Republican Party, of course, enjoys a significant edge in House delegations and controls 33 of the 50 states. While most project them to lose seats in the election, the scenario we’re interested in — in which Trump rebounds to win nearly half of the electoral votes — would probably not be the disaster it would take for the Republicans to lose nine delegations.

Fortunately for McMullin, Republicans haven’t shown Trump a lot of loyalty. Unprecedented numbers of congressional leaders have already abandoned their nominee – and that’s under the working assumption that Clinton is the only alternative.

Moreover, it takes an outright majority at this stage for a candidate to win. Based on known defections, somewhere around 35 congressmen are already anti-Trump (to varying degrees), including a majority of Utah’s delegation, and a majority of the Republicans in Nevada’s.

So let’s say the Democrats pick up a couple of states in the election, while Utah and Nevada go for McMullin and persuade a few other Republican states to join them right away, such that the breakdowns goes something like – with 26 needed to win — 19 delegations for Clinton, 23 for Trump and eight for McMullin.

Now what? Unlike the Electoral College, the House doesn’t just give up — they get to keep going until Inauguration Day. At that point, if the House delegations are still deadlocked, the vice president becomes president.

Meanwhile, the vice president would likely be known. Since the Senate can only choose between the top two candidates (presumably Kaine and Pence), it would take a perfect tie for them to remain deadlocked.

So here’s the rub: Whichever side loses in the Senate might have good reason to make a deal with a McMullin contingent in the House. That is, if Kaine is VP and the McMullin contingent holds fast, the party-loyal Republican coalition may be pressured to accept McMullin as better than Clinton (who would win if McMullin states sided with the Democrats) or Kaine (who would become president if the House remained deadlocked). While if Pence wins in the Senate, the Democrats may be pressured to accept McMullin rather than Trump or Pence — especially if they make deals for political appointments or legislative commitments. While this may sound shady by U.S. norms, it’s not unlike what happens in parliamentary systems around the world.

 

[Aaronrules380]

I don't think it's realistic to expect them to line up behind someone who won a single state. Maybe if he got 8 or so. If opposition to him was that universal in the party they would have done some shady shit to deny him the nomination months ago.

It's unlikely, but I could see it happening. There's a huge limit to the type of shady shit they can do, and recent events like the trump tapes might have changed their minds. Plus a big part of why they didn't deny him is that they didn't think they could within without his base. In the case of a deadlock, that would no longer be an issue

 

[JordanN]

Edit: forget it.

 

[Cyan]

Damn, congrats to the McDonalds corp.

 

[LiveFromKyoto]

Given that voting for third party is voting for Trump (that's what I learned on this forum), the numbers are actually Trump 63 - Clinton 24. A healthy lead.

I loled.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Well, to be fair, I think when most people say third parties they automatically think about Stein and Johnson. And you have to be really fucking out there to vote for either of them. I mean, sorry to those that are, I guess, but those two are both major idiots whose policies are unrealistic nonsense.

I have no idea about McMullin. As long as he isn't a total idiot and doesn't have total nonsense policies, I won't shame anyone for voting for him. I do think this is the worst time for a protest vote, but that's another issue.

 

[Bronx-Man]

McMuffin taking 6 electoral votes from a state Trump was predicted to win would be perfect. Go McMuffin Go!

 

[SDCowboy]

McMuffin taking 6 electoral votes from a state Trump was predicted to win would be perfect. Go McMuffin Go!

Where it really gets interesting is in closes races in Republican states like AZ. It would be amazing if Hillary somehow took Arizona.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Just throwing it out there for shits and giggles but...

Lets say no one hits 270. If McMullin wins Utah that means the house can select him as President right?

 

[ascii42]

Just throwing it out there for shits and giggles but...

Lets say no one hits 270. If McMullin wins Utah that means the house can select him as President right?

Yep. That's basically McMullin's strategy.