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Sales-Age Famitsu sales week 14

Bodomism

On perm notice for Nintendo spam in unrelated threads. Report me!!
Jun 1, 2020
1,483
3,463
630
Software Sales (followed by lifetime sales)

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom, 03/26/21) – 277,604 (1,579,736)
  2. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury (Nintendo, 02/12/21) – 27,833 (620,516)
  3. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami, 11/19/20) – 16,289 (2,088,585)
  4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 12,079 (3,763,673)
  5. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 11,722 (2,491,295)
  6. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 10,253 (1,882,992)
  7. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 9,653 (6,720,514)
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 9,270 (4,228,209)
  9. [PS4] Outriders (Square Enix, 04/01/21) – 6,596 (New)
  10. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 6,027 (3,831,996)
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 4,902 (4,019,278)
  12. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous, 02/25/21) – 4,426 (266,9270
  13. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 4,182 (672,907)
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 4,098 (1,854,867)
  15. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo, 09/18/20) – 3,579 (582,429)
  16. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco, 02/10/21) – 3,329 (59,602)
  17. [NSW] Apex Legends Champion Edition (Electronic Arts, 03/18/21) – 3,080 (18,728)
  18. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 2,858 (1,802,788)
  19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 2,464 (1,082,119)
  20. [PS5] Outriders (Square Enix, 04/01/21) – 2,431 (New)
  21. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan, 06/25/20) – 2,415 (135,129)
  22. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2: Rhythm & Exercise (Imagineer, 12/03/20) – 2,050 (86,410)
  23. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix, 02/26/21) – 2,034 (133,351)
  24. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo, 01/11/19) – 2,029 (1,049,512)
  25. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco, 12/17/20) – 1,948 (53,874)
  26. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo, 11/20/20) – 1,911 (358,327)
  27. [NSW] Densha de GO!! Hashirou Yamanote Sen (Square Enix, 03/18/21) – 1,859 (29,624)
  28. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Nintendo, 10/30/21) – 1,706 (554,616)
  29. [NSW] SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays Platinum Edition (Bandai Namco, 03/25/21) – 1,705 (7,934)
  30. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 1,623 (583,824)
Hardware Sales
Nintendo Switch - 135.076
PlayStation 5 - 20.755
PlayStation 4 - 1.591
Nintendo 3DS - 752
Xbox Series X/S - 159

 
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ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
40,208
40,752
1,310
39
Brazil
Low supply hold PS5 from pass PS4 this week but next-week is probably the week.

Credits to Hiska-kun.



Code:
---------------------------------------------------------------
|    |    PlayStation 4   |    PlayStation 5   |  Difference  |
|    |    (2014/02/22)    |    (2020/11/12)    |              |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|
|Week|  Weekly |    LTD   |  Weekly |    LTD   |   PS5 - PS4  |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|
| 19 |    8.244|   613.785|   34.657|   517.916|       -95.869|
| 20 |    7.111|   620.896|   62.295|   580.211|       -40.685|
| 21 |    6.731|   627.627|   20.755|   600.966|       -26.661|
| 22 |    5.865|   633.492|         |          |              |
| 23 |    5.177|   638.669|         |          |              |
| 24 |    5.243|   643.912|         |          |              |
| 25 |    5.030|   648.942|         |          |              |
| 26 |    6.314|   655.256|         |          |              |
| 27 |    5.405|   660.661|         |          |              |
| 28 |    5.757|   666.418|         |          |              |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|
 
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ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
40,208
40,752
1,310
39
Brazil
Monster Hunter sales.

01./01. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise # <ACT> (Capcom) {2021.03.26} (¥7.990) - 277.604 / 1.579.736 (-79%)

01./01. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.01.26} (¥8.980) - 223.274 / 1.573.686 <80-100%> (-83%)

A bit better than World in second week.
That put digital in perspective.

1.56m physical + ~900-1000k digital (~36-40%)

First week was > 600k digital... that means digital this week was pretty close or ever better than physical... ~300k.

Pandemic changed habits and digital is looking around 30-40% overall now... if the digital keep outselling the physical the 50/50 split won't be a dream in Japan anymore.
 
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Shaqazooloo

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Monster Hunter sales.

01./01. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise # <ACT> (Capcom) {2021.03.26} (¥7.990) - 277.604 / 1.579.736 (-79%)

01./01. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.01.26} (¥8.980) - 223.274 / 1.573.686 <80-100%> (-83%)

A bit better than World in second week.
That put digital in perspective.

1.56m physical + ~900k digital (~36%)

First week was around 600k digital... that means digital this week was pretty close or ever better than physical... ~300k.

Pandemic changed habits and digital is looking around 30-40% overall now... if the digital keep outselling the physical the 50/50 split won't be a dream in Japan anymore.
That's probably more due to the physical version being basically sold out.
 

Bodomism

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PS5 Crossing 600k seems pretty good considering shortages and whatnot?
It did pretty well to recover from small launch shipments but the problem is when most of those sales were bought by scalpers. SQE would be stupid to release FF16 exclusively on PS5 in Japan this year.
 

ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
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39
Brazil
That's probably more due to the physical version being basically sold out.
All Monster Hunters were basically sold out at second week.... the 80-100% in the World there means how much of the shipment it sold.

The biggest difference is the new strong push for digital something that didn't happen in previous entries.
 
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ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
40,208
40,752
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39
Brazil
How was World's Physical to Digital split?
Week 1: 652k
Week 2: 160k

812k total.

Overall sales we are looking at:

Rise: > 2.5 million
World: ~2.39m

The difference (>110k) is mostly digital... well physical is 6k difference.
 
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prinz_valium

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Oct 15, 2013
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Low supply hold PS5 from pass PS4 this week but next-week is probably the week.

Credits to Hiska-kun.



Code:
---------------------------------------------------------------
|    |    PlayStation 4   |    PlayStation 5   |  Difference  |
|    |    (2014/02/22)    |    (2020/11/12)    |              |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|
|Week|  Weekly |    LTD   |  Weekly |    LTD   |   PS5 - PS4  |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|
| 19 |    8.244|   613.785|   34.657|   517.916|       -95.869|
| 20 |    7.111|   620.896|   62.295|   580.211|       -40.685|
| 21 |    6.731|   627.627|   20.755|   600.966|       -26.661|
| 22 |    5.865|   633.492|         |          |              |
| 23 |    5.177|   638.669|         |          |              |
| 24 |    5.243|   643.912|         |          |              |
| 25 |    5.030|   648.942|         |          |              |
| 26 |    6.314|   655.256|         |          |              |
| 27 |    5.405|   660.661|         |          |              |
| 28 |    5.757|   666.418|         |          |              |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|--------------|

The week after.
 

ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
40,208
40,752
1,310
39
Brazil
BTW before people ask where I got my data... it is all from Famitsu.
There is that site with all Famitsu data archived.


It is always my first point to search for old data.
Just take note that the digital data is missing a lot because Famitsu doesn't share it all the weeks like physical... just when they want.

PS. The graphics and comparisons are from ERA because it is easy to use Hiska-kun great work and give him/her the credits.
 
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Woopah

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Jun 15, 2019
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BTW before people ask where I got my data... it is all from Famitsu.
There is that site with all Famitsu data archived.


It is always my first point to search for old data.
Just take note that the digital data is missing a lot because Famitsu doesn't share it all the weeks like physical... just when they want.

PS. The graphics and comparisons are from ERA because it is easy to use Hiska-kun great work and give him/her the credits.
From my understanding Famitsu's digital data is just guesswork anyway, so it's actually better not using it most of the time.
 
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ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
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From my understanding Famitsu's digital data is just guesswork anyway, so it's actually better not using it most of the time.
Yes but...

Capcom confirmed 2 million shipment + digital for World launch in Japan... 1350k retail + 650k digital = 2 million.
Famitsu estimate is not a guess work like you think they have data to extrapole it.

With that data they can do a pretty reliable digital estimate.
 
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Kerotan

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Sad to see Sony couldn't keep up the higher supply. I guess it could be months or even next year before they can. 2 more weeks until it passes ps4 out aligned!
 
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Bryank75

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Jan 12, 2018
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But Series X is poised to take over Japan... that's what I was told on Twitter.

I also heard an interesting retelling of the story about Sony entering gaming....but in this version Sony betrayed Nintendo. The guy was fully convinced Sony was the bad guy....

Austin Powers Cat GIF
 
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Woopah

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Yes but...

Capcom confirmed 2 million shipment + digital for World launch in Japan... 1350k retail + 650k digital = 2 million.
Famitsu estimate is not a guess work like you think they have data to extrapole it.

With that data they can do a pretty reliable digital estimate.
When Capcom is just making calculations based on known shipments from the company itself it's fine, it's when Famitsu is trying to come up with numbers themselves that I don't trust them, as I don't believe any companies share their digital data with Famitsu.
 

Bodomism

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Jun 1, 2020
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Top 30

Software Sales
(followed by lifetime sales)

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom, 03/26/21) – 277,604 (1,579,736)
  2. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury (Nintendo, 02/12/21) – 27,833 (620,516)
  3. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami, 11/19/20) – 16,289 (2,088,585)
  4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 12,079 (3,763,673)
  5. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 11,722 (2,491,295)
  6. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 10,253 (1,882,992)
  7. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 9,653 (6,720,514)
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 9,270 (4,228,209)
  9. [PS4] Outriders (Square Enix, 04/01/21) – 6,596 (New)
  10. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 6,027 (3,831,996)
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 4,902 (4,019,278)
  12. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous, 02/25/21) – 4,426 (266,9270
  13. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 4,182 (672,907)
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 4,098 (1,854,867)
  15. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo, 09/18/20) – 3,579 (582,429)
  16. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco, 02/10/21) – 3,329 (59,602)
  17. [NSW] Apex Legends Champion Edition (Electronic Arts, 03/18/21) – 3,080 (18,728)
  18. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 2,858 (1,802,788)
  19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 2,464 (1,082,119)
  20. [PS5] Outriders (Square Enix, 04/01/21) – 2,431 (New)
  21. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan, 06/25/20) – 2,415 (135,129)
  22. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2: Rhythm & Exercise (Imagineer, 12/03/20) – 2,050 (86,410)
  23. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix, 02/26/21) – 2,034 (133,351)
  24. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo, 01/11/19) – 2,029 (1,049,512)
  25. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco, 12/17/20) – 1,948 (53,874)
  26. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo, 11/20/20) – 1,911 (358,327)
  27. [NSW] Densha de GO!! Hashirou Yamanote Sen (Square Enix, 03/18/21) – 1,859 (29,624)
  28. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Nintendo, 10/30/21) – 1,706 (554,616)
  29. [NSW] SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays Platinum Edition (Bandai Namco, 03/25/21) – 1,705 (7,934)
  30. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 1,623 (583,824)
 

prinz_valium

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Japanese physical PS5 software sales compared to install base are worse than worldwide physical Xbox software sales compared to install base.
But Japan does not have the excuse of Game Pass and a high digital attach rate getting close to PC games level like xbox does.

So were most sales really just scalped to Asia and FOMO buys to have the item even if you don't use it for the main purpose of playing new games?
It's definitely weird. This isn't seen in any other region for PS5
 
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Dream-Knife

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Japanese physical PS5 software sales compared to install base are worse than worldwide physical software sales compared to install base.

But Japan does not have the excuse of Game Pass and a high digital attach rate getting close to PC games level like xbox does.


So were most sales really just scalped to Asia and FOMO buys to have the item even if you don't use it for the main purpose of playing new games?

It's definitely weird. This isn't seen in amy other region for PS5
I've heard others talk about that on here.

Is there that much of a demand for PS5s in Asia? I thought consoles weren't popular there.
 

noshten

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I've heard others talk about that on here.

Is there that much of a demand for PS5s in Asia? I thought consoles weren't popular there.

China has the biggest middle class in the region, we know that there were around 3 million Switches sold in China on the gray market / 1 million officially via Tencent; PS5 hasn't officially launched there. So although consoles are relatively unpopular compared to PC/Mobile gaming - it's still the biggest video game market in the World.
 
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lh032

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becareful, Once Microsoft release the secret Kojima game its going to double series X sales!
 
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LazyParrot

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So were most sales really just scalped to Asia and FOMO buys to have the item even if you don't use it for the main purpose of playing new games?
It's definitely weird. This isn't seen in any other region for PS5
Sure, maybe there's some huge scalping operation trafficking consoles out of the country. Or maybe it's just that the launch lineup is made up almost entirely of PS4 ports, remakes, remasters and Western games that have never sold all that well in Japan to begin with.
 

prinz_valium

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Sure, maybe there's some huge scalping operation trafficking consoles out of the country. Or maybe it's just that the launch lineup is made up almost entirely of PS4 ports, remakes, remasters and Western games that have never sold all that well in Japan to begin with.
I said the same. It could be just FOMO buyer who don't have games yet, but want the console now, because the console is scarce.
And most likely it's a combination of all factors.

Scalping, FOMO buying and no tailored software for the Japanese marekt, yet
 
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noshten

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New Quarter - New Comparison


2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 2.287.346
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 1.880.050 (72%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 407.296 (18%)

This year hardware will be up by a major way compared to last year,


I think Switch will easily surpass 3.2 million by the middle of the year. Should be the third best Q2 of all time. While PS4 supply had already slowed down in a major way in H1 of last year, so PS5/PS4 are likely to be up 200K or 50% YoY for H1. Meaning that combined the total could be a little under 4 million
So on the hardware front both Nintendo & Sony will see some great gains in Japan year over year. Its the Software side that is likely worrying Sony and the third parties aligned to them.

Top 20 2020 H1 Famitsu:
  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
  2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
  6. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
  8. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
  9. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
  10. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
  11. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
  13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
  14. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
  15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
  16. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
  17. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
  18. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
  19. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
  20. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
  21. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
  22. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
  23. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
  24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
  25. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
  26. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
  27. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
  28. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
  29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
  30. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW
NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 11.783.143
NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)
PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)


TOP 30 2021 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.579.736 NEW
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 855.562
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 620.516 NEW
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 404.290
  5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 342.411
  6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 306.490
  7. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 266.927 NEW
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 215.035
  9. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 186.661
  10. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 180.071
  11. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 153.258
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 143.607
  13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 133.351 NEW
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 125.071
  15. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 91.810
  16. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899
  17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 74.751
  18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 65.654
  19. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 59.602 NEW
  20. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 59.268
  21. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 53.615
  22. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
  23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 48.928
  24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.689
  25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 47.238
  26. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 41.760
  27. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  28. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  29. [NSW] Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624 NEW
  30. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 29.264

NSW - 30
PS4/PS5 - 0

TOTAL: 6.376.830

The first half of the year PS4/PS5 aren't guaranteed even a fraction of the the software sales they managed in 2020. This is best encapsulated by the Top 30 games. Resident Evil: Village is going to be the Top Selling game on the ecosystem but that will likely not manage more than 200K sales this quarter. Scarlet Nexus & Nier Replicant are the other game that could end up selling over 100K. At the moment this is going to be the Top 3 Selling games on the PlayStation ecosystem and I believe that only 1 will make the Top 30 for H1, as I think the PS4 version of Village will be around 150-200K at best

On the Switch it's clear that Monster Hunter Rise is heading for over 2.5 million sales in H1, followed by Momotaro with at least 1.1 million, Bowser's Fury with around 900K , MK8D, RFA, New Horizon >500K, Pokemon Snap, Rune Factory 5, Olive Town, Miitopia, Smash, Minecraft likely to end close or above 300K. With just the Top Selling 11 games on the Switch we are likely looking at least 7.8 million sales as a minimum
If we look at another 17 Switch titles with an average sold of 150K, the total for the Switch of at least 10 million and 2021 ahead for Nintendo in a major way despite competing with the abnormal 5 million sales of New Horizon last year mainly because outside of the titles in the Top 30 you also have a very thriving AA market of smaller titles selling 10-50K this year that we didn't really see last year.
 
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Woopah

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Jun 15, 2019
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New Quarter - New Comparison


2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 2.287.346
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 1.880.050 (72%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 407.296 (18%)

This year hardware will be up by a major way compared to last year,


I think Switch will easily surpass 3.2 million by the middle of the year. Should be the third best Q2 of all time. While PS4 supply had already slowed down in a major way in H1 of last year, so PS5/PS4 are likely to be up 200K or 50% YoY for H1. Meaning that combined the total could be a little under 4 million
So on the hardware front both Nintendo & Sony will see some great gains in Japan year over year. Its the Software side that is likely worrying Sony and the third parties aligned to them.

Top 20 2020 H1 Famitsu:
  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
  2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
  6. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
  8. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
  9. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
  10. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
  11. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
  13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
  14. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
  15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
  16. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
  17. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
  18. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
  19. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
  20. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
  21. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
  22. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
  23. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
  24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
  25. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
  26. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
  27. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
  28. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
  29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
  30. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW
NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 11.783.143
NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)
PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)


TOP 30 2021 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.579.736 NEW
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 855.562
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 620.516 NEW
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 404.290
  5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 342.411
  6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 306.490
  7. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 266.927 NEW
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 215.035
  9. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 186.661
  10. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 180.071
  11. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 153.258
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 143.607
  13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 133.351 NEW
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 125.071
  15. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 91.810
  16. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899
  17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 74.751
  18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 65.654
  19. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 59.602 NEW
  20. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 59.268
  21. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 53.615
  22. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
  23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 48.928
  24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.689
  25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 47.238
  26. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 41.760
  27. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  28. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  29. [NSW] Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624 NEW
  30. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 29.264

NSW - 30
PS4/PS5 - 0

TOTAL: 6.376.830

The first half of the year PS4/PS5 aren't guaranteed even a fraction of the the software sales they managed in 2020. This is best encapsulated by the Top 30 games. Resident Evil: Village is going to be the Top Selling game on the ecosystem but that will likely not manage more than 200K sales this quarter. Scarlet Nexus & Nier Replicant are the other game that could end up selling over 100K. At the moment this is going to be the Top 3 Selling games on the PlayStation ecosystem and I believe that only 1 will make the Top 30 for H1, as I think the PS4 version of Village will be around 150-200K at best

On the Switch it's clear that Monster Hunter Rise is heading for over 2.5 million sales in H1, followed by Momotaro with at least 1.1 million, Bowser's Fury with around 900K , MK8D, RFA, New Horizon >500K, Pokemon Snap, Rune Factory 5, Olive Town, Miitopia, Smash, Minecraft likely to end close or above 300K. With just the Top Selling 11 games on the Switch we are likely looking at least 7.8 million sales as a minimum
If we look at another 17 Switch titles with an average sold of 150K, the total for the Switch of at least 10 million and 2021 ahead for Nintendo in a major way despite competing with the abnormal 5 million sales of New Horizon last year mainly because outside of the titles in the Top 30 you also have a very thriving AA market of smaller titles selling 10-50K this year that we didn't really see last year.
It will be very interesting to see what Scarlett Nexus will do, I have no idea what to predict.
 

silpheed-mcd

Member
Oct 30, 2016
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ComG! / Famitsu

First week
MHW: 2410 pt / 1.350.412
MHR: 1843 pt / 1.302.132

Second week:
MHW: 332 pt / 223.274
MHR: 265 pt / 277.604

Third week:
MHW: 219 pt / 125.527
MHR: 185 pt / ?
 
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silpheed-mcd

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Oct 30, 2016
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Rakuten Hardware Orders, april 05 - 11

01/02 PS5
02/03 NSW Lite grey
03/04 NSW Lite turquoise
04/01 NSW Red/blue
05/05 NSW Lite coral
06/08 NSW Lite yellow
07/06 NSW grey
08/00 Xbox Series X
 
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Shaqazooloo

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Nov 3, 2018
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OG Switch seems to be having stock issues. Checked out most of the major amazon sites and all of them have Switch at a higher price then it should be.
 

noshten

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Oct 20, 2014
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Since we no longer get Famitsu digital estimates, I've gone through the eShop top 20 and roughly outlined what I expect from Nintendo's Q results in Japan. The current Week 14 on Famitsu is usually a shipment that's counted towards their Quarterly numbers.

Estimated Top 20 for 2021
  1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.579.736 / >900K confirmed / >2.57M
  2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 855.562 / >400K Digital estimate / >1.25M
  3. Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 620.516 / 300K Digital estimate / >920K
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 306.490 / 200K Digital estimates / >506K
  5. Ring Fit Adventure - 404.290 / 100K MyNintendo estimate / >504K
  6. Among Us (Innersloth) >500K Digital estimate
  7. Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 342.411 / 125K Digital estimate / >467K
  8. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous)266.927 / 125K Digital estimate / >391K
  9. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 215.035 /150K Digital estimate / >355K
  10. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 180.071 / 70K Digital estimate / >250K
  11. Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 153.258 / 80K Digital estimate / >233K
  12. Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 186.661 / 40K Digital estimate / >226K
  13. Bravely Default II (Square Enix)133.351 / 75K Digital estimate / >203K
  14. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 47.689 / 150K Digital estimate / >197K
  15. Splatoon 2 - 143.607 / 50K Digital estimate / >193K
  16. Super Mario Party - 125.071 / 30K Digital estimate / >175K
  17. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 74.751 / 75K Digital estimate / >149K
  18. Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899 / 30K Digital estimate / >119K
  19. Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 91.810 / 10K Digital estimate / >101K
  20. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 59.602 / 25K Digital estimate / >74K
5.9M Physical / >2.8M Digital >9.2M TOTAL

eShop Top 20: jan, feb, mar

Overall we know Momotaro had a massive January on the eShop, Bowser's Fury/Olive Town/Bravely Default 2 contributed to a huge February/while Rise was the title dominating March and April.
One clear thing is very clear Among Us could have very well managed to sell over 150K per month this Quarter at Y500 and doesn't seem to be dropping down in popularity. Its a massive success WW, but we still don't have an idea about how big this game is on the Switch atm, it's crazy that Nintendo seem to keep these type of stories underwraps.
Human Fall Flat is a similar game at Y1,500 which has maintained it's spot in the Top 20 for the past few years, it's known multi-million seller on the Switch in Japan by my estimation. Those are actually the only two digital prevailing titles on the list.
Breath of the Wild is the one I have down as a 50/50 digital to physical split due to it's sale on the eShop in January. While Pikmin is the Nintendo game with the least amount of digital within the Top 20. SM3DAS didn't end up as high in March as I expected, so I think 30K is probably the floor but nothing higher than 50K makes sense.
Once we get the Nintendo shipped figures we should notice a big rise in how much digital is contributing to the overall growth. Japan is lacking in many ways compared to other regions but we are also noticing an upward trend for both Nintendo and third parties at the expense of Japanese retailers. Overall, it's an issue only for retailers when they end up underestimating launch demand, but considering how well software is selling I can understand their complacency at this point. Still I think they can modify their behavior for the rest of the year and order more copies of Pokemon Snap, Miitopia, SMT V, Stories 2, Rune Factory 5 etc so the story doesn't keep repeating. Its very rare for a game not to sell-out it's launch shipment on the Switch, you can count the outright bombs like Fitness Trainer on one hand and even that game will sell out the launch shipment via only a small loss for retailers.
Still in this climate, it will be executives not part of this thriving market that will be asking themselves hard questions.
 
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