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February 2011 NPD Article (Gamasutra)
- Thread starter jvm
- Start date
jvm said:
We can figure them out ourselves within a 10% margin of error, based on stuff like known Bulletstorm sales and Assassin's Creed Sales if we so desired. The current userbase of each system is well documented. Just a little math + measuring/pixel counting. That's good enough. No need for you to break the rules.
Thanks for the data!
jvm said:
I really wish we still got regular info on how titles sell after reaching the Greatest Hits price point. It's interesting to see which titles really thrive at that price point, vs the titles that do most of their business at full price. Specifically, where will titles like God of War 3 and (later down the road) Gran Turismo 5 be after a couple years at Greatest Hits pricing? Will we see some of these titles passing by the 2M mark in the US?
I knew you'd be happy.donny2112 said:Excellent! Now we can be sure of the ordering. Thanks, jvm! I'll try to do the prediction results tonight.
Should be exciting to see 3DS figures in a month. I need to go back and see what the DSi launch was. It had a similar couple of days at the end of a period, right?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Actually, looks like DSi was April 5, 2009 in NA; the very first day of the April period.jvm said:
It's on the borderline.JoshuaJSlone said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/3999/npd_behind_the_numbers_march_2009.php?print=1
To be clear, I was wrong ("couple of days") but it did have some bleed-over into the previous period.
Version 3.0
Member
Canova said:
What the attach rate shows is that a higher percentage of PS3 owners are buying these particular games. But more actual copies of the game were sold on the 360. For example, if there were only 10 PS3 owners, and 3 of them bought Shooterama, that's 30%. If there were only 15 360 owners, and 4 of them bought Shooterama, that's 27%. The PS3 has a higher attach rate, but more copies were sold on the 360.
But that has nothing to do with total games sold, because there are hundreds of games out there, and this is a game-by-game statistic. The 360 generally has the highest software sales, as well as the highest tie ratio, which is the average number of games bought by each owner (somewhere around 8 now, maybe? I haven't seen the stat recently).
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Canova said:
By most software you mean 5 pieces of software released in the last 8 months.
Stumpokapow said:
I count 9 out of 11
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...For_Xbox_360_PS3_Reveal_HD_Console_Trends.php
Version 3.0
Member
Kafel said:
I know, the link doesn't work. I got the tag for tirelessly defending consumer rights over corporate rights, specifically our right to re-sell, borrow/loan, share, or buy games used.
You'd think that would be common sense, but there are countless corporate worshippers here who not only believe that we don't own things, but that we shouldn't want to.
And videogame publishers are the most infantile, loud-mouthed, self-entitled bunch of whiners in the business world. Somebody has to be the voice of reason when they blame their customers for their own shortcomings, especially when many of those customers mindlessly parrot the same accusations onward.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Canova said:
By most software you mean 9 pieces of software released in the last 8 months give or take.
I can see being coy isn't going to help.
- Tie ratio is a lifetime figure, dating back to the launch of the platform.
- Tie ratio includes all software. Exclusive software, multiplatform software, hardcore software, casual software.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Canova said:
You're saying "How can this be?" as if the answer isn't obvious.
Version 3.0
Member
Canova said:
I doesn't have the better attach rate in most software, at least not that we can see from this data. It appears that it might have a better attach rate in the top-selling software.
But, as an example, if those same 10 PS3 owners and 15 360 owners bought copies of these 8 games, all it would take for the 360 to have a better tie ratio is for those 360 owners to buy more game per person than those PS3 owners. Say they bought 10 games each, while the PS3 owners bought 9 each. It just means those 10 games that the 360 owners bought were also made up of more games than just these 8. Maybe they're buying exclusive games, like Halo and such.
Watchtower
Banned
Once a console gets above a certain number as far as LTD user base numbers its attach rate is bound to drop some, considering a large portion of the added user base is made up of casual gamers and people buying 2nd copies of their console.
The "active" user base is what keeps up those ratios. And there's only so many gamers that buy 8-10 games a year.
The "active" user base is what keeps up those ratios. And there's only so many gamers that buy 8-10 games a year.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Canova said:
The 360 has sold more software than the PS3 (in the US).
The 360 has sold more software per user than the PS3 (in the US).
This does not mean that for every single multiplatform game, the 360 has sold more copies than the PS3, or the 360 has sold more copies per user than the PS3.
For some multiplatform games (Virtua Fighter 5 for example, actually fighting games in general) the PS3 has sold more. For some multiplatform games (some of those listed for example) the PS3 has sold less overall, but more per user. For some multiplatform games (Borderlands for example) the 360 has not only sold more copies, but more copies per user. The ratio of multiplatform games in each category has varied over time, so even if you assume the PS3 has a better attach rate than the 360 for every game released in 2011, it still doesn't change the past times where that wasn't true.
Tie ratio is also impacted by exclusive software on both systems. If Halo 3 sells 6.5 million copies in the US and Killzone 2 sells 950k copies in the US, Halo 3 is contributing more to the 360's tie ratio than Killzone 2 is contributing to the PS3s.
Finally, while tie ratio generally increases over the life of a system, attach rate generally decreases. Nothing on the PS2 broke a 25% attach rate lifetime and only a small handful of games broke 8-10% lifetime. This doesn't speak to the tie ratio because there were so many software SKUs.
Canova said:
It's not just being in the market longer and I really don't see what you're failing to grasp here. You are taking 9 multiplatform data points in the last year or so. You are extrapolating this to cover 300+ multiplatform titles across 4.5 years as well as all exclusive titles during that period as well as all titles on the 360 from before the PS3's launch. You are then acting surprised when that extrapolation is incongruent with reality.
Version 3.0
Member
Canova said:
Not necessarily. We're only looking at a few titles being measured here. Plenty of other titles have a better attach rate on the 360. And you're forgetting exclusive titles. Gears of War, for example, would contribute to the 360's tie ratio, but obviously not to the PS3's.
And the 360 has a better tie ratio even when the data is launch-aligned with the PS3, I believe. Maybe jvm can give some actual data to speak to that. I probably have some, but I'm too lazy to dig it up. It's pretty common knowledge that the 360 has an abnormally high tie ratio.
Version 3.0
Member
Canova said:
Yeah, I see I was late there. No worries.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Watchtower said:
Not to imply it's doing poorly at all, but I kind of wish they'd release numbers on how well the bundles are doing vs. the stand alone Kinect. I see the Kinect system bundles out everywhere, but the standalone Kinects seem plentiful every where.
Wonder if Kinect is also causing people to upgrade their old Xbox to slims.
Version 3.0
Member
Clott said:
I think it's safe to say it's "the same as the Wii". Microsoft specifically set out to make a product to appeal to Nintendo's audience, because Nintendo ate their lunch. What that audience is made up of, exactly, is a matter of debate and plenty of conflicting (mis)information. Nevertheless, they certainly succeeded.
Psychotext
Member
I did. Could have bought one before Kinect came out but I fancied waiting for a bundle.DrForester said:
Watchtower
Banned
DrForester said:
Definitely. But you wouldn't be able to figure the exact percentage by comparing bundles to standalone units anyway.
Version 3.0
Member
Kafel said:
Well, certainly, everyone...in theory. In practice, not so much.
Leondexter said:
It's been below the PS2's tie ratio measured from launch since around the end of 2008. It then tracked pretty evenly with the Xbox for a while, before falling behind that level, as well. Of course, Xbox was long dead in hardware by this point from launch, so that kind of helped its tie ratio keep growing. :lol
Kafel said:
It's not broken. It's intended to link to whatever thread Leondexter is currently posting in. The implication is that he's "Fighting the Good Fight" everywhere he goes.
Version 3.0
Member
donny2112 said:It's not broken. It's intended to link to whatever thread Leondexter is currently posting in. The implication is that he's "Fighting the Good Fight" everywhere he goes.
Hey, I didn't even realize that's what it links to, now. It used to link to GAF's member list, which I assumed meant nothing more than that it was broken somehow.
Another good article JVM. I agree with your thoughts regarding XBLA and PSN and the dollars being spent there as opposed to traditional packaged retail goods. It's a trend that is only going to gain momentum and it's my main beef with the NPD. How can you reflect on the health of the industry if you can't (or won't) track and share information on a large segment of the market?