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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

E

Elandyll

Banned
[3DS] 310k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 160k

The Amazon ranking is relatively close (thanks to the last week of promos on XB1), but the promos at both Gamestop (trade in) and Best Buy (free PSTV) for PS4 will have moved quite a few units I think (and those are much bigger videogame retailers for videogames than Amazon).
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Jamix012 said:
The person you quoted had 3DS under 180k....which is less than what Nintendo said it sold in week 1. I don't think they're the most reliable predictor.
Click to expand...
Dude, that's not a prediction. Those are the numbers for February 2014. I needed a little comparison between this year and last

Elandyll said:
[3DS] 310k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 160k

The Amazon ranking is relatively close (thanks to the last week of promos on XB1), but the promos at both Gamestop (trade in) and Best Buy (free PSTV) for PS4 will have moved quite a few units I think (and those are much bigger videogame retailers for videogames than Amazon).
Click to expand...
It's definitely harder to predict the sales for last month because of all those insane deals Amazon had. It's no surprise the XBO was quite close to the PS4 in February on Amazon but we have no idea how much better the PS4 sold on Best Buy and Gamestop. If only they released charts as well....
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Jamix012 said:
The person you quoted had 3DS under 180k....which is less than what Nintendo said it sold in week 1. I don't think they're the most reliable predictor.
Click to expand...

I might not be the most reliable, but damn it if I do not try to be :p
and those were Feb 2014 numbers
 
joecanada

joecanada

Member
Hey I asked this before but forget the answer - does anyone ever compile gaf predictions to see how accurate we are on average?
 
D

donny2112

Member
Did this a few years ago to compare to Wedbush/Pachter and EEDAR/Jesse2040, but don't usually calculate GAF_Agg points.

Ana_Compare-4.png
Click to expand...
 
Cornbread78

Cornbread78

Member
[PS4] 295K
[3DS] 280K
[XB1] 195K
[WIU] 70K


I mean, the new 3DS are selling really really good, but this isn't Japan people, this is NA, lol.

I could see PS4 and 3DS flipped though, tough call.. PS4 saw strong sales with the TLoU bundles finally showing up on store shelves once the old SKU was cleared out.
 
P

pharmboy044

Member
Pretty interesting to see now Amazon is being used as legitimate info for the NPD. If you sourced Amazon a few years ago, people on GAF would have laughed all over your face.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Welfare said:
Who's the current holder of that record?
Click to expand...

So, went back and looked. Since Jan 2010, there are a group of titles that declined 92-94% from month 1 to month 2. Group includes Epic Mickey, GoW Ascension, GoW Judgment, uDraw Studio and FF XIII.

Prestigious.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
CosmicQueso said:
So, went back and looked. Since Jan 2010, there are a group of titles that declined 92-94% from month 1 to month 2. Group includes Epic Mickey, GoW Ascension, GoW Judgment, uDraw Studio and FF XIII.

Prestigious.
Click to expand...
thank you, nice statistics. more than 90% is really hard.
could you tell us who is to beat in this gen?
Next month, when we know how short the legs of the Order were it will be a lot of fingerpointing on othe titles that dropped badly anyway.
(Ready at) Dawn vs. Sunset (Overdrive) would be my favorite.
 
D

donny2112

Member
CosmicQueso said:
So, went back and looked. Since Jan 2010, there are a group of titles that declined 92-94% from month 1 to month 2. Group includes Epic Mickey, GoW Ascension, GoW Judgment, uDraw Studio and FF XIII.

Prestigious.
Click to expand...

Epic Mickey was December -> January. Still bad, but also helped by normal massive drop from December -> January.
GoW, GoW, and FFXIII were March -> April. 5 week month -> weak 4 week month. Still bad, but the month arrangement didn't help, either.
I think you may have gotten mixed up with uDraw Studio, though. It went up from Nov -> Dec on Wii, and then dropped in January. Were you talking about the PS360 "bad idea" version, maybe?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
I've been thinking about it, and the retail, USA, third-party Wii U software release schedule is quite sparse.


We have:

1) LEGO Jurassic World by TT Games / Warner Bros. in June 2015

2) LEGO Marvel's Avengers by TT Games / Warner Bros. in Q3 2015

3) Rodea the Sky Soldier by Prope / Kadokawa / NIS America in Q4 2015
(There may have been a money-hat involved for the Nintendo exclusivity)

4) Project Cars by Slightly Mad Studios / Bandai Namco in TBA 2015 (is this even releasing at all?)


...is that it?

Devil's Third and Fatal Frame for Wii U are both projects produced in partnership with Nintendo.


Can anyone think of any more upcoming USA retail third-party releases for the Wii U? Maybe a new Skylanders this October? Is Ubisoft going to bother with another Just Dance?

Man...this is getting bleak.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Note for NPD sales:


PS4 hit 20.2 million worldwide sell-through as of 2015-03-01.

PS4 hit 18.5 million worldwide sell-through as of 2015-01-04.


So that's 1.7 million PS4 consoles sold worldwide in January and February.

An interesting tidbit that may affect your PS4 estimates this month.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Aquamarine said:
Note for NPD sales:


PS4 hit 20.2 million worldwide sell-through as of 2015-03-01.

PS4 hit 18.5 million worldwide sell-through as of 2015-01-04.


So that's 1.7 million PS4 consoles sold worldwide in January and February.

An interesting tidbit that may affect your PS4 estimates this month.
Click to expand...

Of those 1.7 million we can already subtract Jan NPD and ~200k from Japan (still need that final week).

Come on Wednesday!
 
3

3rdamention

Member
Considering the Accuracy that Amazon Monthly Charts have shown since launch (100%), looks like PS4 should take February. Of course, Amazon is going to be wrong at some point, and the rankings are pretty close.


Amazon February 2015 Best Sellers


PS4 - 9th
XBO - 12th



For those that like that info, of course.
 
M

Mory Dunz

Member
edit:2
Aquamarine said:
I've been thinking about it, and the retail, USA, third-party Wii U software release schedule is quite sparse.


We have:

1) LEGO Jurassic World by TT Games / Warner Bros. in June 2015

2) LEGO Marvel's Avengers by TT Games / Warner Bros. in Q3 2015

3) Rodea the Sky Soldier by Prope / Kadokawa / NIS America in Q4 2015
(There may have been a money-hat involved for the Nintendo exclusivity)

4) Project Cars by Slightly Mad Studios / Bandai Namco in TBA 2015 (is this even releasing at all?)


...is that it?

Devil's Third and Fatal Frame for Wii U are both projects produced in partnership with Nintendo.


Can anyone think of any more upcoming USA retail third-party releases for the Wii U? Maybe a new Skylanders this October? Is Ubisoft going to bother with another Just Dance?

Man...this is getting bleak.
Click to expand...

Sonic 2015? If that's a thing....and if it's on Wii U.
 
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