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[Log4Girlz]

Walker should stop running

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Theres already been extensive research on the republican voting block. Henry Olson has a great article on this:

http://eppc.org/publications/four-faces-republican-party/

The voting blocks are - moderates, somewhat conservatives, very conservative secular right, very conservative evangelical. The somewhat conseratives are the largest block and so they tend to pick the candidate.

I don't trust Fox news, but it would be nice to see Bernie within striking distance, that would give him some time to close the gap. But he has a lot to do courting the minority vote considering they don't really know his platform unlike Hillary

My question is: why do people think that young liberal white voters are Bernie's only constituency on the issues considering his platform? All he needs o do is let other people hear and they will follow

Main things to watch with Bernie are, if Hillary is below 50% and if anyone else gets in the race. I think a huge block of the left would vote bernie in a primary because they don't particular like Hilary.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Walker should stop running

He's too well financed to do so. Not sure how he's currently doing in Iowa but he was solid there and leading for a time.

The polls after the second and third debates will tell a lot.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Perry is supposed to drop out any day now because he has no monies.

RE: Electability in a general election. I think I've posted this before when I came across it.
http://news.columbia.edu/pressroom/1071
There's a ten point gap between black and white voters on whether it's "Very Important."
The study is a bit old now; I'm not sure whether there's any newer investigation that would be relevant.

Yup and unlike in smaller elections presidential elections get a lot of free coverage.money is less important

In the 2012 US election cycle, an estimated $7B was spent. Election campaigns are expensive.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Main things to watch with Bernie are, if Hillary is below 50% and if anyone else gets in the race. I think a huge block of the left would vote bernie in a primary because they don't particular like Hilary.

A social democrat like him would likely be far more appealing. But he won't run attack ads against Hillary's flip flops on every issue so it will dilute the waters.

Bernie's major issue currently is that he lacks a major platform to give his pitch and his visibility is not good enough, most black people and latino's don't know who he is, so he's gotta really drill down onto getting himself out there in those areas.

The fact that he doesn't have a lot of money to really have a major outreach to a lot of people through radio and ads will likely hurt his chances if he doesn't address that visibility problem directly.

 

[sphagnum]

Walker should stop running

Gotta hang in there in case Trump flames out, or at least to position himself as VP contender.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

A social democrat like him would likely be far more appealing. But he won't run attack ads against Hillary's flip flops on every issue so it will dilute the waters.

Bernie's major issue currently is that he lacks a major platform to give his pitch and his visibility is not good enough, most black people and latino's don't know who he is, so he's gotta really drill down onto getting himself out there in those areas.

The fact that he doesn't have a lot of money to really have a major outreach to a lot of people through radio and ads will likely hurt his chances if he doesn't address that visibility problem directly.

I see your points. Him and his campaign are really honorable and classic, if you take a step back to look. He is relying on the people, not the money. He is bringing out crowds, his speaking style seems really inciting and honorable and he admits to them that even if he wins, they will have to stay involved. Its really admirable to me, and makes me like him more.

He definitely walks the walk.

 

[-COOLIO-]

With green being middle of the road, it looks to me like Bernie is definitely winning here.

 

[Meus Renaissance]

The Walker and Rubio implosions are really surprising. I would not have called that.

I thought they were the two most articulate candidates on stage that night as well. There seems to be a direct correlation between HERP DERP and increase in polling figures. No wonder Rand Paul (wealth gap due to laziness) and Carson (anti-semites) have tilted to the far-right.

 

[Kusagari]

Walker should stop running

Walkers implosion since the debate is surprising because he did far better than I figured he would.

 

[gutter_trash]

Theres already been extensive research on the republican voting block. Henry Olson has a great article on this:

http://eppc.org/publications/four-faces-republican-party/

The voting blocks are - moderates, somewhat conservatives, very conservative secular right, very conservative evangelical. The somewhat conseratives are the largest block and so they tend to pick the candidate.

 

[ezrarh]

Walkers implosion since the debate is surprising because he did far better than I figured he would.

It's not that he said anything truly terrible (for a GOP debate) but the public just saw what he looks like. The man looks like he should be selling you a shitty vacuum.

 

[jtb]

Main things to watch with Bernie are, if Hillary is below 50% and if anyone else gets in the race. I think a huge block of the left would vote bernie in a primary because they don't particular like Hilary.

On the flip side, when Biden officially announces he's not running, almost all of his support will go to Hillary (even if only grudgingly), just like how Sanders consolidated a lot of his support from would-be Warren supporters.

 

[boiled goose]

I'm pretty surprised the Koch suckers are actually going to throw money behind Walker. Seems like you might as well throw those hundreds of millions down a well.

Well, I was responding to someone who was talking to how they are perceived during the debates and that Bernie would get attention for his support of the poor and minorities, but during the debates they're all going to be very similar on social issues. So I can't see it mattering that much.

But to what you're saying, for President I don't think it matters all that much. Obama was president when Citizens United happened and there wasn't anything he could do about it. Similarly, with the way Congress is made up will make it difficult for Sanders or Clinton to pursue very many liberal agendas and they're both going to appoint liberal Supreme Court Justices. So I think on social issues and domestically Clinton and Sanders would look very similar.

The most powerful man couldn't do anything? Bs. Complete Bs.

He did not bring any attention to the issue or proposed corrective legislation or kept his promise to not appoint lobbyists... oh. Maybe he didn't do anything because he doesn't disagree.

Hillary, despite her recent comments doesn't seems she disagrees either. At least based on her actions.

 

[Foffy]

The further from the top Bush gets, the better. That'said all that matters. Anyone is better than Bush.

Watch what you say. Scott Walker would be fucking dangerous to have. Granted, he's down in these polls, but still...

Don't forget climate change or voter representation issues (gerrymandering, citizen's united and congressional term limits). Climate Change is a particularly huge issue. Mother Nature won't distinguish between class, race, religion or ideology when our oceans acidify, our crops wither and our summers cook us.

But God will save us. You just need to believe in dualistic "otherness" in nature to be saved from its happenings!

Keep twerking on building that economy against an environment, humans. Let our bad ideas ruin it all! ):

 

[And_Gignac]

Yeah, I think Bernie's electoral problems are best summed up in this Alabama primary poll:

http://wkrg.com/2015/08/12/alabama-republicans-favor-trump-by-wide-margin/



And Nate Cohn brings up another potential problem with the Bernie campaign:





I don't think that's the case, but it's a potential issue that the Bernie campaign would have to deal with if the Hillary campaign fell apart. Which, it probably won't, at least not at this stage.

EDIT: Basically, this map is pretty good indicator of their strengths:

As of now the only way he can theorically win the nom is, imo, by having outstanding debate performances and winning Iowa and NH. If after those two key moments he is still polling below 30% with non whites and women, he is done.

But if he is above something like 35% he can become competitive, having white men + sizeable support from minorities and women on his side (of course that depends on the singular racial makeup or every state).

His campaign is very aware of this, thats why they picked Symone Sanders as Press Secretary.

 

[speculawyer]

Walker should stop running

Indeed. He should walk.




I'll show myself out.

 

[gogosox82]

...I still don't get why Carson is a thing. He seems like a crackpot. All he did in the debate was spout nonsense about brains, he seemed to struggle with even hitting the most basic GOP talking points.

Talking to conservatives, they just really like him. I don't think they will vote for him but I think that he comes across really well to them.

 

[ErasureAcer]

So Bernie has support mainly in the places where Democrats always have support, but Hillary's support extends into states where Democrats are usually very weak. Doesn't look too good for Bernie, to tell the truth - this chart shows that he's the candidate of choice for rich white liberals and not much else.

Isn't that map old? Last map I saw...Sanders was winning just about every congressional district. Thought it was ISideWith as well.

 

[Donthizz#]

That Koch money going to waste, lol.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

So many people were saying just weeks ago that Sanders had literally zero chance.

Yeah, the odds are stacked against him, and there's probably a slim chance he'll ever get anywhere near the white house, but I wish people would be more judicious about promulgating the "no chance at all meme" and ask questions about which parties are pushing that idea and who it serves. There's a difference between small chance and zero chance. Stranger things have happened and the electoral system is very chaotic.

If you notice, Fox News and other Conservative outlets are really pushing the "Sanders > Clinton" narrative probably because they know that they have a great chance of beating Sanders in a general election.

I see your points. Him and his campaign are really honorable and classic, if you take a step back to look. He is relying on the people, not the money. He is bringing out crowds, his speaking style seems really inciting and honorable and he admits to them that even if he wins, they will have to stay involved. Its really admirable to me, and makes me like him more.

He definitely walks the walk.

Neither the Sanders nor the Clinton campaigns are really talking about each other. I imagine it's more strategy than anything since Republicans are throwing mud at each other (when they're not becoming more crazy themselves).

As of now the only way he can theorically win the nom is, imo, by having outstanding debate performances and winning Iowa and NH. If after those two key moments he is still polling below 30% with non whites and women, he is done.

But if he is above something like 35% he can become competitive, having white men + sizeable support from minorities and women on his side (of course that depends on the singular racial makeup or every state).

His campaign is very aware of this, thats why they picked Symone Sanders as Press Secretary.

Winning Iowa and NH won't help much tbh, but it'd be a step in the right direction so to speak. He doesn't have nearly the appeal that Clinton has. People forget, but the Clinton name was so popular in 2008 that Republicans were scared that their voters would vote for Hillary.

 

[Oddish1]

The most powerful man couldn't do anything? Bs. Complete Bs.

He did not bring any attention to the issue or proposed corrective legislation or kept his promise to not appoint lobbyists... oh. Maybe he didn't do anything because he doesn't disagree.

Hillary, despite her recent comments doesn't seems she disagrees either. At least based on her actions.

Well there are two ways Citizens United could have been overturned. Either the Supreme Court overturns it themselves, which means waiting for Justices to leave so he could replace which is out of Obama's hands. Or Congress makes a Constitutional Amendment, which is something that rarely happens and was never going to happen with the Congressional makeup. So no, he could not have simply proposed the correct legislation or whatever you're suggesting. The most powerful man in the world still has to follow Constitutional law. You're oversimplifying a difficult task.

 

[Suikoguy]

Well there are two ways Citizens United could have been overturned. Either the Supreme Court overturns it themselves, which means waiting for Justices to leave so he could replace which is out of his hands. Or Congress makes a Constitutional Amendment, which is something that rarely happens and was never going to happen with the Congressional makeup. So no, he could not have simply proposed the correct legislation or whatever you're suggesting. The most powerful man in the world still has to follow Constitutional law. You're oversimplifying a difficult task.

We can still push for complete transparency on where the money comes and goes. I don't think the Supreme Court ruling made that impossible.

 

[ivysaur12]

With green being middle of the road, it looks to me like Bernie is definitely winning here.

Well, no, I said their strengths. It's not a poll, just a relative measure of people who use one specific site.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Looks like an outlier to me. Fox polling has been understating Clinton's support relative to other polls for a while now. They keep showing Jeb! doing great against her even though his campaign is floundering.

Establishment just trying to run a narrative. Look how electable he is guys! Forget Trump.

The biggest issue seems to be that there simply isn't much regular polling on the race period. Look at that gap between this poll and the next most recent national one.

 

[Oddish1]

We can still push for complete transparency on where the money comes and goes. I don't think the Supreme Court ruling made that impossible.

I suppose that's true. I was speaking of the ruling as a whole though.

 

[mattiewheels]

I don't get how the socialist is not popular with poor people.

This is one of the great accomplishments of the neoconservative movement of the last 30 years, convincing poor America the vote against their own interests in the name of patriotism, and also convincing them that they're not actually poor but actually "middle-class". Meanwhile, they're getting poorer and the wealth gap gets alarmingly high, almost as if they were connected!

 

[Inuhanyou]

This is one of the great accomplishments of the neoconservative movement of the last 30 years, convincing poor America the vote against their own interests in the name of patriotism, and also convincing them that they're not actually poor but actually "middle-class". Meanwhile, they're getting poorer and the wealth gap gets alarmingly high, almost as if they were connected!

Not only that, but pitting poor white america against poor black america, and then acting like they are so surprised when people get angry. Its a joke.

Bernie as a values man identifies as a social democrat of the modern European distinction. But bringing in poison terms that have been demonized over and over again to attack your opponents with little substance to them seems to be the way to get into a low information voter's mind. Even Hillary's camp has used that card against him.

 

[nelsonroyale]

What exactly is the appeal of Clinton that differentiates herself from previous democratic leaders, other than that she is a woman?

I can't think of a single thing.

 

[ivysaur12]

What exactly is the appeal of Clinton that differentiates herself from previous democratic leaders, other than that she is a woman?

I can't think of a single thing.

She probably has the most impressive resume of any non-incumbent running for president in recent memory. FLOTUS, Senator, Secretary of State...

Let's just ask Marco Rubio:

RUBIO: If this election is a resume contest, then Hillary Clinton will be the next president.

It's not that she's "a woman", it's that her tenure in public service is both long and varied in the capacities in which she's held a variety of positions that have better prepped her for Head of State than any one else running for president. Again, you may think that her time in the limelight is a negative. That's fine! I'm not a huge fan of her time as Secretary of State compared to, say, her time as a Senator. But that also wasn't your question.

 

[Dicer]

I know Bernie is gaining traction, because all the Hillary hate has shifted to Bernie hate on Facebook

 

[Alcibiades]

What exactly is the appeal of Clinton that differentiates herself from previous democratic leaders, other than that she is a woman?

And although it wasn't her that was President, Bill Clinton is associated with a strong economy and a time in which both parties compromised and worked together. Balanced budget, surplus, booming economy, etc... Fair or not that is the perception by many.

If her time in office is like that of her husband economically and politically, people would consider it a great improvement over the Bush and Obama years.

 

[Ketch]

Americans have poor political education and the phrase "socialist" is a demonized term here that brings up Cold War propaganda about the USSR. Capitalists have been very successful at convincing oppressed people that capitalism is their way to success because if they just try hard enough one day they too can be rich - but not if those lazy poors keep sucking away their money on welfare by raising taxes! This ties in with racism since it is widely supposed among the uneducated people that minorities, primarily black people, are lazy and shiftless and won't go to work to help themselves but just want to live off the Hard Working Man's Dime through abusing the welfare system. There's also a host of cultural issues that lead to white working class voters (who are, gain, often undereducated) to support the conservative platform, like homophobia, anti-feminism, support for religion etc. since many of these cultural issues are seen as an affront to the privileges that these people feel are the last things giving them meaning in an increasingly unstable world.

this is the best post i've read in a long ass time. well done sir.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Hilllary has the most experience already in the white house. But a majority of that is just working the game as her and her husband ended it. The dynasty they lead will be allowed to continue if she wins the nomination and gets the Presidency.

She is not going to do crap about fixing the healthcare industry, wallstreet(TPP will be protected under her and glass steagal will never be considered), environmental issues(she supports keystone), and will probably go much harder on foreign policy than Obama currently is based on her hawkish stances.

Literally the only thing we can say about her positively in my eyes is that she is not the alternative in the other candidates which are just disasters. But that's coming from the side of things that still shows that we are pushing further in a worse direction than we are now if we accept that.

I do not believe she would keep her campaign promise of litmus testing her SC picks, nor do i believe her on her claim that she wants corporate money out of politics. I also believe she would fold on her claim of supporting 15 dollar federally mandated living wages if prodded enough.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I know Bernie is gaining traction, because all the Hillary hate has shifted to Bernie hate on Facebook

Not on mine.

It's still firmly Conservatives hating Hillary, and young white guys (my brother and best friend included) feeling the Bern.

I haven't seen a mention about Bernie yet, by conservatives, in Kansas on my feed. Small sample size of 185 though. Some truly staunch conservatives as well. One of my childhood friends father posted a pic of Hillary with text that read "If you're voting for... this... next year, block me now" I responded "But I really want to see you flip out when she becomes president."

Had a laugh.

Most of the conservatives on mine are still posting day after day about planned parenthood selling aborted fetuses. Usually with the "If you're more offended by Cecil/black kids being killed/gun violence than a fictional planned parenthood story, YOU are what's wrong with Murica"

Abortion and guns tend to be the big conservative issues in my portion of Kansas. That and freeloading mexicans stealing all of the welfare or medicaid from tax payers... which is ironic, given the majority of them make less than 20,000 a year.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Also, never, ever, mention that you are a Socialist in Kansas.

It always devolves into "You want to take my wealth (giggle) and give it to other people?!" with a few fanatics wishing you direct bodily harm because just the idea of Socialism scares a huge chunk of Americans. Even lifelong Democrats (lots of my family).

Part of the reason that I give up hope on Bernie ever getting elected. He's my preferred candidate, and I'd love to feel safe in caucusing for him. But on the off chance he gets the nom I know it will be a bloodbath in the GE. Coming from someone that's been following Bernie since 2002, believes firmly that we need to have a guaranteed income before automation reaches critical mass, and that our current taxation system is highly regressive instead of the oft-described progressive, this should mean something.

I truly believe America will get there. I just have absolutely no faith that next year will be the time.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Its a shame that a name has scared people who don't believe in actual policy. We are a nation of the shallowest, most dumbass people around

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Its a shame that a name has scared people who don't believe in actual policy. We are a nation of the shallowest, most dumbass people around

I do not disagree.

Left to their own devices, the American people will make the wrong decision more often than the right. Democrats are almost as big a part of the problem as Republicans. They in tandem have created a landscape in which the truly beneficial ideologies for the average downtrodden are viewed as harmful fringe ideals. Dems because they ran away from them, do everything to deny they even have leanings toward Socialism. Reps because they knew if they didn't marginalize it, people might soon realize Socialism for them can be just as helpful as Socialism for the wealthy has been.

This isn't meant to create a false equivalency between the two parties. One is empirically proven as more damaging. More regressive. But through cowardice on one side, and based greed on the other, we have a society in which the very utterance of Socialism in all, but the smallest of circles, can incite anger and fear in those it would likely help the most.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

While "anti establishment" sounds good in principle, candidates DO matter. Voting for trump is encouraging anti minority rhetoric.

And voting for the rest of the GOP field, Cruz and Carson included, is different how?

Trump's comments on Mexicans strengthened his candidacy because people agree with him.

 

[Principate]

And voting for the rest of the GOP field, Cruz and Carson included, is different how?

Trump's comments on Mexicans strengthened his candidacy because people agree with him.

Trump basically represents hard-line racist America. It would be better if he if he didn't have any significant support, but he does as you'd be blind not to notice evidence implying these a lot of hard-line racists in America. At least this way it's not hidden behind smoke and mirrors, diet racism and code words, it's visible for all the world to see. Which makes it harder for the rest of moderates to pretend it doesn't exist, or isn't important.

It's better he explodes in a magnificent ball of fire on a national level for all parties involved (except for obviously the hard-line racists).

 

[Bel Marduk]

Also, never, ever, mention that you are a Socialist in Kansas.

Good thing Bernie doesn't have to win Kansas. We heard the same types of things about Obama in 2007. The election is over a year away and anything can happen.

 

[Africanus]

If Sanders was a strapping 40 year old socialist he may have had a chance.

But then his supporters couldn't re-post that black and white image macro over and over and over again

 

[Chariot]

If Sanders was a strapping 40 year old socialist he may have had a chance.

But then his supporters couldn't re-post that black and white image macro over and over and over again

Because Trump is such a beauty. I don't think his age matters that much, he looks old, but reasonably so. He isn't really ugly, he got that nice grandpa vipe, right? And ultimately it's not that important how he looks.

 

[Basileus777]

Because Trump is such a beauty. I don't think his age matters that much, he looks old, but reasonably so. He isn't really ugly, he got that nice grandpa vipe, right? And ultimately it's not that important how he looks.

I hadn't even realized Trump was 69 years old.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Good thing Bernie doesn't have to win Kansas. We heard the same types of things about Obama in 2007. The election is over a year away and anything can happen.

Fun fact. Obama won Kansas.

Are you confused or making a joke?

Oh oops. I assumed the discussion was of the primary. Thus the talk of Obama 2007.

 

[Basileus777]

Fun fact. Obama won Kansas.

Are you confused or making a joke? The closest Obama ever came in Kansas was losing by 15 points. Romney beat him by 21%.

Edit:

Oh oops. I thought the discussion was of the primary.

Maybe they were and I'm mistaken. Well that makes a lot more sense.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Good thing Bernie doesn't have to win Kansas. We heard the same types of things about Obama in 2007. The election is over a year away and anything can happen.

That was actually more about me than Bernie.

I made the mistake at a family gathering of explicitly stating about Obama "I wish he was a freaking Socialist!" a room full of Democrats and you'd think I'd just killed JFK.

Part of the reason I tend to be so pessimistic about Bernies chances. I can see a chunk of my family of lifelong Democrats voting 3rd party if he's the nominee, or not at all. Most tend to be firmly in the "Blue Dog" arena. My mother, brother, and I are the black sheep of the family. We're very consistent. The rest of my family is just odd. Race mixing since the 60's, Union loving, yet fear the word Socialism while espousing Socialist ideals.

Paradoxical. But something that scares me about his prospects. I'm willing to accept much less than I actually want, just on the chance that Socialism is still enough of a bogeyman to jade if not outright dampen Democratic turnout. Because even this meager progress we've made under Obama could be easily drawn back with a large enough Republican majority.

Sorry for continuously ranting. Part of me is jealous that so many think we've come far enough in this country for a self-described Socialist to even be in the running. And part of me is scared they believe it enough to nominate him.

I do not have enough faith in the American people to believe they'll make the smart choice. If he does happen to be the nominee I'll vote for him happily. It'd be the first time I actually have someone close to my views in the running. But I fear the idea that he'd lose, much more than I hope he'd win.

We'll see. He still has one hell of an uphill battle getting the nom.

 

[Basileus777]

That was actually more about me than Bernie.

I made the mistake at a family gathering of explicitly stating about Obama "I wish he was a freaking Socialist!" a room full of Democrats and you'd think I'd just killed JFK.

Part of the reason I tend to be so pessimistic about Bernies chances. I can see a chunk of my family of lifelong Democrats voting 3rd party if he's the nominee, or not at all. Most tend to be firmly in the "Blue Dog" arena. My mother, brother, and I are the black sheep of the family. We're very consistent. The rest of my family is just odd. Race mixing since the 60's, Union loving, yet fear the word Socialism while espousing Socialist ideals.

Paradoxical. But something that scares me about his prospects. I'm willing to accept much less than I actually want, just on the chance that Socialism is still enough of a bogeyman to jade if not outright dampen Democratic turnout. Because even this meager progress we've made under Obama could be easily drawn back with a large enough Republican majority.

Sorry for continuously ranting. Part of me is jealous that so many think we've come far enough in this country for a self-described Socialist to even be in the running. And part of me is scared they believe it enough to nominate him.

I do not have enough faith in the American people to believe they'll make the smart choice. If he does happen to be the nominee I'll vote for him happily. It'd be the first time I actually have someone close to my views in the running. But I fear the idea that he'd lose, much more than I hope he'd win.

We'll see. He still has one hell of an uphill battle getting the nom.

I work with lower working class people, most of whom lean D, and even in NJ all I hear about Sanders is he's that socialist nut. The word is so tainted that there's no overcoming it.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Fun fact. Obama won Kansas.
Oh oops. I assumed the discussion was of the primary. Thus the talk of Obama 2007.

Are you confused or making a joke? The closest Obama ever came in Kansas was losing by 15 points. Romney beat him by 21%.

Edit:

Maybe they were and I'm mistaken. Well that makes a lot more sense.

I wasn't, but that was a fun night. I caucused hard for Bams that night.

It was very very close in that room. Obama won my district caucus by less than 20 people.

 

[Night Hunter]

Well, if these demographic trends hold, probably around ~30 ish percent, maybe a bit higher. But he really needs to start making inroads with minority and poor voters if he truly wants to be competitive.

That'll be very difficult for his campaign. At least as of now.

I'm probably late with this and it has nothing to do with you, but that sentence is a travesty in and of itself.