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[Tugatrix]

I voted despite having no clue about most of these.

Here's a link to the results so far for those interested: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1XSSGRkxR8safNPKwd04DB4YoJBAB3Gf8bNcaeeVyGRQ/viewanalytics

Interesting results, maybe we collective can be dead on the results has some sociologists suggest might happen in this kind of things...

 

[Mononoke]

Really depressed Frozen is a lock over The Wind Rises. I loved Frozen and thought it was the best animation film. But then saw The Wind Rises and loved it. Sucks that it's not even in consideration though.

Ah well. I think we will get a split for director and best picture, with best picture going to 12 Years A Slave.

 

[Nuke Soda]

Done.

 

[Andrew Korenchkin]

Music - Original Score: Win Butler

That is all.

 

[Fancy Clown]

Pretty much everything I picked was what the majority ended up with haha. Either everyone's gonna end up winning or no one will

 

[Atraveller]

Done and done, maybe Leonardo would actually win it this tine.

 

[TheKaeptain]

Done and done, maybe Leonardo would actually win it this tine.

There is no way he wins it.

 

[newjeruse]

Thread inspired a blogpost:

Congratulations: You Just Won Your Oscars Betting Pool.

(trust me. I'm hardly ever wrong. About anything. Ever.)

(really)

My explanations for how and why I picked what I picked are detailed in that post. The key takeaway: Actually having watched the movies you're voting on isn't necessarily a help when it comes to picking what will win a statue. In fact, in most cases, it's going to fuck you up. Because you fool yourself into believing the awards are a legitimate meritocracy, when they're very much not

I admire your confidence, but I think you're bugging with Bullock.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Hey, I gave myself the out w/ Blanchett.

(Basically, if Bullock wins, I win. if Blanchett wins? I WIN)

Cuaron is the one that's gonna screw me over. And I will be HAPPY about that - because Cuaron is fucking amazing.

But the picks are just preamble to the explanations, which are there solely to show how LITTLE the quality of the movie/performance has to do with selecting a winner.

 

[newjeruse]

Honestly, my ballot is pretty locked in. The one category I'm having serious trouble with is editing. You would think Gravity would be a shoe-in, but Captain Phillips won the ACE award, which is an extremely accurate predictor.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

Seem like Lupita has won a lot of supporters.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Seem like Lupita has won a lot of supporters.

I wonder if it's due to most of the Hollywood Reporter "Anonymous Ballot" posts having her as their choice.

I might have misplaced my 12 Days goodwill on McQueen instead of giving it to Lupita.

 

[Cerberus]

Honestly, my ballot is pretty locked in. The one category I'm having serious trouble with is editing. You would think Gravity would be a shoe-in, but Captain Phillips won the ACE award, which is an extremely accurate predictor.

I went with Captain Phillips since it won the ACE award. The odds and most of the experts still seem to favor Gravity though.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

I think 12 Years a Slave might win Editing.

I wonder if it's due to most of the Hollywood Reporter "Anonymous Ballot" posts having her as their choice.

I might have misplaced my 12 Days goodwill on McQueen instead of giving it to Lupita.

Which "Anonymous Ballot"?

 

[Phire Phox]

Honestly, my ballot is pretty locked in. The one category I'm having serious trouble with is editing. You would think Gravity would be a shoe-in, but Captain Phillips won the ACE award, which is an extremely accurate predictor.

Yeah, I chose CP for Editing. I figure since it isn't likely to win any other awards they'll give it that.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

It's a series they've been doing for a few years now. Basically, they get academy voters to go off the record and walkthrough their decisionmaking as they fill out the ballot.

For example, here's a voter who basically says he's giving McConaughey his vote because of True Detective.

Here's the page for the series.

 

[UrokeJoe]

Seem like Lupita has won a lot of supporters.

I really don't understand this.

 

[Cerberus]

I went with Lupita because she won the SAG and Lawrence already got her Oscar last year. Only 5 actors have ever won two consecutive awards.

Lawrence has a chance though because of that BAFTA win.

 

[RatskyWatsky]

Voted even though I don't think I saw a single nominated film (maybe a few of the animated features...).

 

[UberTag]

I went with Captain Phillips since it won the ACE award. The odds and most of the experts still seem to favor Gravity though.

The ACE awards failed to predict the eventual Oscar winner in film editing just two short years ago.
Both The Artist and The Descendants took home the win at ACE but it was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo that bagged the Oscar.

Just saying.

 

[Oersted]

Music - Original Score: Win Butler

That is all.

Oprah vs Disney. Whoever will win, we will lose.

 

[newjeruse]

The ACE awards failed to predict the eventual Oscar winner in film editing just two short years ago.
Both The Artist and The Descendants took home the win at ACE but it was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo that bagged the Oscar.

Just saying.

That's true. But it has predicted the right one 9 out of the last 10 years. That's an impressive rate.

 

[Ridley327]

I'm reading these Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots, and this one was pretty funny:

I eliminated everybody but the one from 12 Years a Slave [Lupita Nyong'o] and Jennifer Lawrence. I didn't vote for Jennifer Lawrence, even though I thought she was very entertaining in the movie, because (a) she just won last year, and (b) we can't give everything to Jennifer Lawrence when she's 22 years old because Jennifer Lawrence will be institutionalized. She will have gotten too much, too soon, too early, and she'll lose her mind. I also didn't think she gave the better performance. I kinda thought the parts of the two women in American Hustle should have been reversed. As for Lupita, it's a great performance -- and she has handled herself impeccably. She has acted like a movie star: she looks great, she is grateful, there's no pictures of her drunk at some party. She's played her part well and she gives an amazing performance.

You hear that? Lupita Nyong'o has this in the bag because she's good at avoiding paparazzi!

 

[Ridley327]

OH MY GOD:

I voted for Gravity because the whole movie is a special effect, so I thought this was a pretty easy one. The only special effect of Lone Ranger was how they made $250 million disappear.

 

[PhantomOfTheKnight]

I voted despite having no clue about most of these.

Here's a link to the results so far for those interested: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1XSSGRkxR8safNPKwd04DB4YoJBAB3Gf8bNcaeeVyGRQ/viewanalytics

...and NOBODY voted for Ernest and Celestine for Best Animated Film. I am not surprised.

 

[Dany]

GOt my votes in.

Wish I saw more movies

 

[-Kees-]

Done. Gravity will easily win the most but I think 12 Years a Slave will wind up taking BP.

 

[jett]

I really don't understand this.

Why not? It's the only major category that is unpredictable, and IMO she's the best of the lot.

 

[Vulcano's assistant]

Man, I'm ashamed I have not seen The Act of Killing or 12 Years a Slave. I rather watch them in my living room.

edit: i thought Gt a Horse was going to be the favorite by a long shot since you watch it before Frozen

 

[Kal]

Done.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Done. This is the first year I've actually seen a fair amount of the nominated movies. I feel like I can actually participate now.

 

[FortuneFaded]

Done. This is the first year I've actually seen a fair amount of the nominated movies. I feel like I can actually participate now.

If you've seen a fair amount of the nominated movies then you have probably seen more than the voters.

 

[Kadayi]

Cool idea. Submitted. Fingers crossed as their were a lot of guesses towards the latter part.

 

[OfWhiteSkinOnRedLeather]

Done. I think American Hustle and Gravity are gonna sweep this.

 

[DrStiles]

Got my votes in, should be fun to see how it turns out

 

[Tucah]

Just submitted, I love a good Oscar pool.

 

[PsihoPerihelion]

Voted. I picked some upsets here and there, but I played it safe on the majority.

 

[Sickboy007]

Voted.

 

[Exterminieren]

I will be SO angry if Chiwetel doesn't get Best Actor.

I mean, I know the MacConaissance can't be stopped, but Ejiofor had some of the most subtle yet powerful acting I've ever seen in a movie.

 

[FaidSint]

Submitted. Do I get to be mod for a day if I win?

 

[Wes]

No duration timebreaker this year?

 

[Mairu]

Filled out! I don't know shit about any of the shorts though, hooray for random picks.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

No duration timebreaker this year?

What do you mean?

 

[Ridley327]

What do you mean?

The website we used to use for Oscar pools had an option for a tiebreaker where you would submit how long you think the ceremony would last in the event of a tie. The person closest to it without going over would be the ultimate winner.

 

[CreeperBlocks]

And done! I Really hope The Hunt wins for best Foreign Language film.If anyone hasn't watched it Go see it, Mads Mikkelsen Is Great in that.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

The website we used to use for Oscar pools had an option for a tiebreaker where you would submit how long you think the ceremony would last in the event of a tie. The person closest to it without going over would be the ultimate winner.

I guess not. I predict many ties, since I assume many are voting for the favorites in the summary link.

 

[Plasmid]

Just put in mine for this year. Here's hoping.

I really think The Hunt will win foreign film and that 12 years a slave is gonna clean house tonight.

 

[Dawg]

Submitted mine.

Off to bed now, I'll see the results tomorrow.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

I'll be closing it soon.

We have over 140 responses. quite a bit.

 

[UberTag]

The website we used to use for Oscar pools had an option for a tiebreaker where you would submit how long you think the ceremony would last in the event of a tie. The person closest to it without going over would be the ultimate winner.

What is this? The Price is Right?