TheCochese
Banned
He's a serial bullshitter and deserves your ignore list.
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Georgia's 6th Congressional District Special Election |OT| Round 2: Fight!
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
He's a serial bullshitter and deserves your ignore list.
That is the gist of Australian evangelicals who support Trump. They hate the man but love the message. It doesn't matter if he's a piece of shit, the sheer fact that the man is completely fearless in saying whatever shit he wants gets these people excited. These are things that Rubio and Cruz can't replicate since they're a hell more careful about what they say.
The ends justifies the means so to speak. He's completely emboldened a lot of people on my Facebook feed to openly support Margaret Court being a piece of shit.
Doug Heffernan
Member
What warning signs?
Democrats have lost 5 elections in a row since Trump was elected.
The only warning signs are for the democratic party to get their collective shit together before the midterms.
Replacing Pelosi would be a good start.
GoldenEye 007
Member
I would say that's fair. If Dems fail to take the House in 2018. Then.... that's just about that for me.
Unknown Soldier
Member
No, because Americans have the attention spans and memories of goldfish and (R) voters always vote (R) no matter what name is in front of the (R).
Until actual Democrats win actual elections, it's all sound and fury signifying nothing.
yellowjacket25
Member
People see the R next to her name on the ballot. She didn't win because she had any redeeming qualities. She isn't even that popular among republicans.
TheCochese
Banned
We were already given insight into GOP mindset when they were worried it was a toss up. I don't think tonight changes things.
The SC result is...odd. And it won't do future forecasts any favors.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Anyone in this thread, just answer this question. If Republicans were challenging reliable blue seats right now, how would you be feeling?
GoldenEye 007
Member
These districts were vacated in part because they're such strong GOP bases. While Dems losing is frustrating, the fact that they've closed the margins so much in these races is a positive.
Obviously at some point you'd want to win something, but given the realities of these particular races, the next best thing is to significantly close previous gaps. So yeah if a Dem can take a +20 R district down to +5, what does that say about the +15 or +10 or +5 GOP districts out there in 2018?
Triple Dash
Neo Member
The energy is still there as far as I can tell, just gotta keep on fighting.
plagiarize
Banned
I love how people keep quoting this post and not the posts where I explain the warning signs I'm talking about.
Because you all know what I'm talking about and either want to ignore that and gloat or ignore that and pretend that there is either nothing we can do, or only one thing we can do.
And it's pretense. The only thing I don't know is if you're ignorant enough to think we won't see through it or if you are trying to convince yourself that there is zero reason for Trump and the GOP to be concerned.
TheCochese
Banned
To put it in war terminology...
The Democrats went on five suicide missions thus far and inflicted serious casualties that will have an impact on the overall war.
2017 is Rogue One, and 2018 will either be Star Wars or Empire.
The Democrats went on five suicide missions thus far and inflicted serious casualties that will have an impact on the overall war.
2017 is Rogue One, and 2018 will either be Star Wars or Empire.
Doug Heffernan
Member
Is their zero reason for the democrats to be concerned? They should absolutely be concerned and they should be doing something about it instead of saying "hey we got second place!". They need to get organized... and quickly... before it's too late. Stop pointing fingers, take a look in the mirror and improve the party.
Imagine if every Democrat felt the way you do right now, we genuinely would be screwed. I don't mean to be a dick, but so long as you've got this defeatist attitude, you're part of the problem and helping nobody. In fact you're actively making things worse by spreading a message of hopelessness - you're essentially doing the GOP's job for them. This sort of attitude is giving them exactly what they want. "Stay home Democrats, no need to even bother turning up to vote, there is no hope for you. We won, you're fucked for life."
Democrats absolutely need to take a good look at wear they stand as a party in light of Ossoff's loss, and whether or not they want to move further left or keep trying the centrist route. I'm not trying to sugar-coat anything, but flat-out giving up does nobody any good.
Exactly.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I think the thing here is that Trump is an exceptionally toxic figure, and as such many are expecting exceptionally vociferous backlash but ultimately not seeing it. I'd be very happy with tonight's results if Rubio were president, but he's not. A reality TV star who's waist deep in a Russian corruption scandal five months into his term is the president, and we're still losing to his party by not-exactly-razor-thin margins. I fully understand that these are safe R seats. I think what people are disappointed by is that the swing we're seeing is more or less in line with what one would expect from a regular R, but not when confronted with the complete lack of benefits, if not detriment, the current crop of Republicans have brought to the country. Our opponents want to suck the life out of the most vulnerable among us and are led by an incompetent imbecile... and we're losing to them over and over again. At what point do Republicans, at the very least, lose faith in the direction of their party and stay home on election day? There just aren't that many millionaires who actually benefit from these policies. The 2010 swing against Obama was in response to a pretty average democrat, policy-wise. As such, a similar swing against Trump would be disappointing because he's not an average Republican. So, to use a buzz word, I think much of the rancor right now is about the "normalization" of Trump as just some unpopular Republican rather than what he really is: incompetent, authoritarian, ignorant, corrupt, narcissistic, and a pathological liar. He really is those things, unlike the tea party loons who thought Obama was a "Muslim atheist."
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
These reactions just make no sense to me. It's the same as people who get themselves riled up over the simple idea that Trump will always have some loyal supporters somewhere.
Here's a reality check for you, there are 500+ seats in the House of Representatives. Many of those seats will stay Republican no matter how awful you think Trump or the Republican party is, just deal with it. Five of those seats were up for election and became more competitive than many thought they would be.
All it takes for control to change is for 20 some odd seats to change out of 500+, that's all. Seats that are historically competitive or not strongly Republican enough to withstand a general change in the national mood.
I'm not some partisan cheerleader, I'm just explaining the facts to you. Of course there are warning signs, kind of like all the signs Democrats ignored in 2016. The same mistakes are being made and no one seems to give a damn.
Here's a reality check for you, there are 500+ seats in the House of Representatives. Many of those seats will stay Republican no matter how awful you think Trump or the Republican party is, just deal with it. Five of those seats were up for election and became more competitive than many thought they would be.
All it takes for control to change is for 20 some odd seats to change out of 500+, that's all. Seats that are historically competitive or not strongly Republican enough to withstand a general change in the national mood.
I'm not some partisan cheerleader, I'm just explaining the facts to you. Of course there are warning signs, kind of like all the signs Democrats ignored in 2016. The same mistakes are being made and no one seems to give a damn.
TheCochese
Banned
If Rubio were elected, these races wouldn't be this close. There is a clear Anti-Trump movement alive and well.
438, but yes. I think 435 vote.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Well, I guess there's still time, but this is probably not a seat that democrats can lose in 2018.
But i believe 3.8% is a way bigger gap than we hoped for.
But i believe 3.8% is a way bigger gap than we hoped for.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
My mistake, I got confused with the recent French election where 577 seats were up for a vote.
San Antonio TX recently elected a new mayor who made transgender rights and suing the TX government over their anti-sanctuary city bullshit.
Good things happen. We need to fill the bench. We need to actually resist and do shit right instead of waiting for national elections. I want better turnout in smaller elections.
People love to complain about the lack of a real left in this country, but they only wanna show up for the final act.
Good things happen. We need to fill the bench. We need to actually resist and do shit right instead of waiting for national elections. I want better turnout in smaller elections.
People love to complain about the lack of a real left in this country, but they only wanna show up for the final act.
EYEL1NER
Member
I was hoping for Ossof to win and didn't expect much from SC District 5. I'm surprised to see how close it was here in SC now, but still disappointed. I mean, it's great news that it's closer than it could have been and close enough to make some on the Right nervous; it looks like the SC District 5 being within 4 points was closer than the general election in November when Mick Mulvaney won. That's all great. But it's hard to not still think about the situation here in SC District 5 as "Great. Another asshole who wants to suck off Trump while vigorously voting 'Yes' for a stupid-fucking border wall and repealing the ACA won."
I said it in the PoliGAF thread a while back when I still had some hope about winning District 5 that the area around me voted pretty strongly for Clinton in November. It looks like the results for today's election here in Sumter County were Parnell 5,547, Norman with 3,660. So I can still take some solace in knowing that not everyone around me is a hateful and selfish piece of shit.
I said it in the PoliGAF thread a while back when I still had some hope about winning District 5 that the area around me voted pretty strongly for Clinton in November. It looks like the results for today's election here in Sumter County were Parnell 5,547, Norman with 3,660. So I can still take some solace in knowing that not everyone around me is a hateful and selfish piece of shit.
I'm not sure how much I trust polls though after the Presidential election and again after tonight. Obama and Hilary is completely different from Reagan and Bush (which was more of the point I was trying to make). I believe that if Hilary wasn't such a flawed candidate (Democratic fall out with Bernie didn't help) and Obama had a much higher sustained growth (GDP and actual jobs) it would have been a different story (also shows popularity isn't everything). Also, to assume that Republicans are not at all open to the idea of a black president is in itself racist and ignorant. Look at Ben Carson.
Also, I was not making a prediction, just pointing out that if (if) he can turn things around and prove to the people that he can follow through on his promises, they will vote for him again. They will not give him a second chance like most politicians, he only has one chance.
As for popularity, this man is a freaking oddity. He was unpopular and still won by a good margin. Imagine if he ever became popular.
Almost nothing you said is true.
Obama had good jobs growth and GDP
Yup, lots of ground to be taken and lot more effort to be exerted before good results come in. Democrats will definitely need to lick their wounds and make adjustments without falling to delusions that they have the upper hand, but that's been true for a while now.
As for the people insisting that everything's lost... I mean, do you and give up? Not really sure where the long game with that is.
Louise Mensch says hi. Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug.
To be fair, even the progressive efforts revolve way too much around trying to find loopholes and shame businesses (and running into free association issues and private business issues) rather than actually trying to make orientation a protected class (which is the way to actually protect them)
This is not a good result, but it's at least a sign that things might be getting closer for a Dem victory than not. Couple of takeaways
1) We really fucked up during the run off - if we had game theoried it right, we had enough Dem votes to actually take the top two spots if we had divided our votes relatively equally IIRC. Which would have made all of this a moot point.
2) The national attention may have hurt Ossoff near the end more than helped. By projecting so much of 2018 onto the race, it increased polarization and brought Republicans back into the fold (since it started to become a referendum on the national GOP rather than just Trump). SC was insanely close; and I think that might have had to do with the lack of national attention from the media.
3) We will have to keep morale up, because I suspect it will be low after this and if AHCA gets through the Senate (DAMNIT MCCONNELL). We have energy but do we have longevity?
4) Whether the Trump coalition stays together into 2018 is going to be interesting. AHCA and tax reform could bring back a lot of the Obama/Trump voters into the Democratic fold, or at least sour them enough on Trump to not come out and vote R. But tax reform could push those upper class social moderates back into the GOP camp.
Indeed; though the redistribution of that wealth geographically and class-wise (more than its' fair share went to the coasts and to upper middle class families) hurt the Democratic party. That's probably a major policy issue that we have been sticking our head in the sand about (because most of the people here live in those areas that benefited disproportionately) that we need to reckon with before 2020.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I certainly hope so. I just don't know how incompetent the President has to prove himself to be before R's at least stay home, to the extent that you would expect sane individuals to when their political party is led by a reality tv celebrity. For instance, if Kanye were the president right now, and my party was pretty enthusiastically supporting him, I probably wouldn't be voting for that party. Why are republicans so unconcerned with what's happening to "the party of Lincoln?"
TheCochese
Banned
Republicans tell themselves anything that makes them feel better, true or not.
I think this race was too early. September or early 2018 would have done better, let these scandals and a slagging economy take root. Dow is up, which is the only thing Fox News gives a shit about when reporting on the economy (and I guess gold prices). You also had an extremely bland candidate, honestly. Both of them were, but one had the right letter behind their name
There are more things to it than that, but it really is time for me to go to bed.
The thing is that they weren't able to do anything about those issues because Congress wouldn't even let them pass status-quo spending bills without shutting down the government.
Which obviously has worked quite well for them in the last election.
I think by the time Obama entered office, it was too late to really prevent what had started to happen. We sacrificed manufacturing jobs for service jobs, because most of the folks who make decisions in the country live on the coasts, and stood to benefit from cheaper goods. Because we were so insecure about the economic recovery from Trump's attacks, we kept talking about how much the economy has recovered without acknowledging that it didn't recover for a whole lot of people.
Mind you, said globalization of trade lifted billions of people out of poverty, so thinking outside of the US, it was (so far) a net gain. But at the cost of the American middle class for the most part.
The next question is what can conceivably be done to fix the problem? Change of strategy, messaging or policy? Or wait for the GOP to screw up so badly that Democrats sweep into power?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I'm sure that'll help. Might as well just make a citizens arrest too while you'are at it.
Shadow Puppetry
Member
Donald Trump Jr. @DonaldJTrumpJr
Congratulations dems that's the most expensive participation medal ev... um since November. #maga
Medal?
Congratulations dems that's the most expensive participation medal ev... um since November. #maga
Medal?
The formatting leaves much to be desired, but this is a great post.
What a classless goon.
ShironRedshift
Member
No. Pelosi's got nothing to do with this (particularly not if you can't show any evidence that the people who voted for Handel specifically voted for her because of the Pelosi boogeyman and wouldn't have still voted for her if that hadn't been present, which is lacking. Republicans shouting it at the top of their lungs in the adverts doesn't translate into what people who actually show up to vote do and don't give a fuck about and how they would have voted otherwise). Quoting what I said elsewhere about this topic:
Actually later this year will be the start of the democratic empire with the two gubernational elections in Virgina and New Jersey and other elections being held I think in these states to. And seriously I have watched byelections before in Canada were one party can close to winning a seat and in the next general election they won the seat.The most recent case occurred because the party that kept that seat in the byelection experienced about a 20% decline in their polling numbers provincially between that byelection and the general election which made it possible for the second place candidate in the byelection to win that seat in the general.
poppedcollar69
Member
Fascinating. This anecdote is consistent with my take on the state of the Dem party, and damn, it kinda is dire
Democrats "Biggest concern" isn't winning, but having to *GASP* move left.
Democratic party is in a death spiral.
Globalization was inevitable. If we stuck our head in the sand the manufacturing jobs would still have eventually disappeared, whether to automation or to foreign competition. Not to mention that trade agreements like NAFTA have millions of jobs in the U.S. that rely on them.
That being said, what was not inevitable was the whole detail where the gap between the rich and everyone else has gotten so huge. Legislation could have helped offset that problem. But, regardless, I suppose that's kinda irrelevant given the GOP's stances on it.
Don't you get it? If the dems had put up a bernie-like then a bunch of voters from the left would show up magically that wouldn't show up for someone like Ossof and push em to the finish line in a primarily red district.
excelsiorlef
Member
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
Presumably being centrist/moderate left is not gonna sway anyone, so they might as well go all Bernie left, since he was so popular last year and is extremely popular in VT.
Keep in mind that in 2018 there are more D (and I caucusing with D) seats in the senate and more R seats in Congress and governors in play.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018
They spent a lot of money on GA 6th congressional district and came up short. It's a high risk high reward play for the democrats, I can't blame them for trying giving Bernie's popularity. I'll be interested in seeing how everyone is gonna play their hands next year.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Well, you have people calling the guy who ran in SC-05 Parnell (who's an ex-Goldman Sachs executive) a populist, so people don't really seem to make sense about things like this period.
excelsiorlef
Member
Sucks about Ossoff, but again, it's mostly bad luck that all the special elections so far were for heavy GOP districts that just 7 months ago voted overwhelmingly for a Republican candidate, notwithstanding how they voted for Clinton.
Clinton made it close in GA-6, but she still lost. We like to think that Trump makes every single seat up for grabs, but the sad (or hopeful truth) is that local Republicans are managing to stay alive by not being too close to Trump, although still enjoying the help they get from Trump's base.
This was Hillary's mistake as well. She bet that she could peel away enough moderate Republicans from Trump to win her the presidency, but there were enough and separating Trump from the rest of the Republican party was disastrous for Congressional races.
Ossoff still manage to do well. He kept most of the anti-Trump vote from 2016, even if those anti-Trump suburban voters have never been particularly Democratic or progressive and could just as easily have voted for a typical Georgian Republican like Handel in other years.
Clinton made it close in GA-6, but she still lost. We like to think that Trump makes every single seat up for grabs, but the sad (or hopeful truth) is that local Republicans are managing to stay alive by not being too close to Trump, although still enjoying the help they get from Trump's base.
This was Hillary's mistake as well. She bet that she could peel away enough moderate Republicans from Trump to win her the presidency, but there were enough and separating Trump from the rest of the Republican party was disastrous for Congressional races.
Ossoff still manage to do well. He kept most of the anti-Trump vote from 2016, even if those anti-Trump suburban voters have never been particularly Democratic or progressive and could just as easily have voted for a typical Georgian Republican like Handel in other years.
Yeah. Parnell flew under the radar in a district that used to vote for democrats before it got changed to favour republicans more. Mulvaney's popularity in the district did not even rub off Norman much which is kinda shocking. Parnell wasn't a populist but he was not really campaigning as a true blue democrat either which hellped him a lot.
Mr_Antimatter
Member
Hillary's issue was she thought that the areas Obama won were safe, and didn't hit those areas as hard as she should have campaign wise. They needed to fall in love with her like they did him, and the bernie fallout didn't help.
All the democrats need to do in 2018 is put the right candidates in the right contests, and they will take seats. Especially if things get worse under trump and the current GOP.
Hope the Supreme Court strikes down partisan gerrymandering in a case they'll be hearing and voter suppression in a future case, thereby eliminating the main issues that plague Democract-leaning voters?
NorthAndSouth
Member
Hot take, I know, but honestly seeing the state of how the American populace persists in their idiocy; I do think Trump will win a second term. The US is too stupid and too stubborn to display any real change in the political process.
Hillary and the Dems biggest failure was assuming that people wouldn't vote for the openly racist idiot conman who admitted to sexual assault, repeatedly made pervy comments about young girls, and flagrantly and constantly lied.
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