Support NeoGAF

[GhaleonEB]

Nothing new to add, just wanted to say, after reading through the OP for a second time, that it's really well put together. The dissection of the incredibly insulting and credibility-shedding "play and buy" incident in particular. Good job, Fyre.

 

[Poker Face]

That seems like much adieu about nothing. The Halo 4 multiplayer dropoff seems pretty typical for any AAA shooter in this day and age.

what does this even mean?

No other AAA shooter has the same dropoff Halo 4 had.

 

[MechaZain]

I think Reach is more to blame than people realize and I liked Reach. It opened big, but it was a prequel that radically changed the gameplay in ways many opposed being pitted against CoD in the prime of its rise to popularity. A lot of those Halo 3 players either skipped Reach altogether or didn't like it and tried other FPSs in the meantime (mostly Call of Duty).

The game itself is great IMO, and especially considering it was 343's first offering. The population for 4 fell off because the old Halo fanbase had already gone their separate ways before it even came out and only revisited briefly for the launch.

 

[Shosai]

what does this even mean?

No other AAA shooter has the same dropoff Halo 4 had.

Got any charts tracking the dropoff for Black Ops 2? Halo Reach? Modern Warfare 3? ODST? Gears of War 3?

 

[Sai-kun]

man, juices is such a good poster.

 

[Kuroyume]

Halo 3 happened. Killed everyone's enthusiasm for the series, Then ODST and crap like Reach and Halo Wars only diluted the appeal of the series. Remember when they made it so you could only get the H3 map packs initially if you purchased Halo Wars? They like to piss on their fans.

 

[E92 M3]

What would I do to experience another "Halo 2". I would play that game for hours and never get bored. The maps were mostly all amazing and the combat was damn fun. 49-49 Team Slayer matches were heart pounding and the shenanigans on Headlong were pure entertainment. I miss those days. Definitely one of my highlights in the gaming career.

 

[blamite]

I don't care enough about Halo anymore to write up a big post about exactly why Halo 4 killed the series in my eyes, but even if I did it wouldn't hit the nail on the head as perfectly as Ghaleon's post last page. The most I'll say is this:

343 put a ton of effort into their overarching player investment systems with all their perks, loadout unlocks, armor unlocks, commendations, Spartan Points, and specializations, but the end result, for me at least, is that it's absolutely impossible to be invested in the game on a moment-to-moment level because there are so many layers of nonsense piled on top of nearly every aspect of the game. You can't take anything that happens seriously because there's no level playing field, no base set of expectations that can be applied across the board.

I could write up another wall right now, but I'll just leave it simple. The main reason I got a 360 was Halo 3. The main reason why I'm not getting an Xbox One is because of Halo 4.

This is absolutely true for me as well. Next spring, I'm buying a PS4, playing Destiny, and never looking back.

I wish 343 the best, and I hope they can turn the franchise around, but I'm done. Halo was my favorite gaming franchise for almost 7 years, but I'm done with whatever it is now.

 

[Eoin]

Halo 3 happened. Killed everyone's enthusiasm for the series, Then ODST and crap like Reach and Halo Wars only diluted the appeal of the series. Remember when they made it so you could only get the H3 map packs initially if you purchased Halo Wars? They like to piss on their fans.

So wrong. Halo 3 was fighting it out at the top of the xbox live charts years after it's release. That game had the best player retention of any game released this generation.

 

[MysteryM]

Nope. Halo was my staple MP game, and I haven't found another since. I've kind of been bouncing around XBLA games and some iPad games waiting for Destiny to land, which is what I hope will fill that void.

I was the same for a long time, tried cod - good at it yes but its no where near as skilful as halo. Gears is my new home, cut my teeth on gears 3 and now Judgement (people don't like its multiplayer - but play it for long enough and you'll suddenly realise how good it is).

 

[Kuroyume]

So wrong. Halo 3 was fighting it out at the top of the xbox live charts years after it's release. That game had the best player retention of any game released this generation.

It was only at the top because they killed H2 otherwise H2 would have crushed H3 on the activity rankings after 4 months. 4 months was the shelf life for H3. Now, of course it stuck around for long because the competition was't strong then.

 

[Ken]

good OP fyre

never forget top of complex camping with snipers fueled by ordnance drops and the dew

 

[MysteryM]

The only thing Halo 4 got right was adding sprinting. That's the only thing they should've taken from other games.

Wrong. Sprinting and jetpacks killed some of the strategy, re-spawning and then sprinting back to the same spot took some of the magic away from knowing that death meant you may not be able to back your mates up.

Go back to what made halo 3 great and you won't go wrong.

 

[Mass Effect]

The games will always sell 8m or 9m per game, but if MS want the series to be competitive in terms of multiplayer, then they need to start listening to the fans.

Except I don't believe Reach nor 4 have reached 8 million. I only see Halo's sales declining in the future.

We'll see though.

 

[Eoin]

It was only at the top because they killed H2 otherwise H2 would have crushed H3 on the activity rankings after 4 months. 4 months was the shelf life for H3. Now, of course it stuck around for long because the competition was't strong then.

Killed Halo 2? Are you refering to the orginal xbox live getting shut down? That happened in 2010, 3 years after Halo 3 released. Also this weak competion you are refering to included, COD4, WAW and MW2.

 

[Interficium]

You guys out way too much stock into balance and gameplay design with MP games as though people really care when they do drop in drop out MP gaming.

This.

There seems to be a real prevailing notion here that the only way to "save" Halo is going back to catering to "pro players" or whatever only, when in reality that little niche of players is a small fraction of the daily playerbase that they so desperately care about maintaining.

 

[BNGames]

How they portray Cortana was both creepy and bad all around. I couldn't stomach the campaign because of it.

Multiplayer stopped being fun After Halo 2.

 

[Omega]

It was only at the top because they killed H2 otherwise H2 would have crushed H3 on the activity rankings after 4 months. 4 months was the shelf life for H3. Now, of course it stuck around for long because the competition was't strong then.

wat. Halo 2 didn't get shut down until like 2010

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I could write up another wall right now, but I'll just leave it simple. The main reason I got a 360 was Halo 3. The main reason why I'm not getting an Xbox One is because of Halo 4.

Halo was the draw to 360 for me, as well, and doubtlessly for millions of other people. However, I didn't much care for what Bungie was doing with the series, so seeing them leave was something I personally welcomed. It was only because of that change that I gave Halo 4 a chance. Unfortunately, 343 only managed to kill what little appeal Halo had left (disclosure: I speak primarily of SP, as I have no personal experience with MP in either Reach or Halo 4).

Oh well, at least I still have the One True Halo (CE), and I don't need a new Xbox to play it. Indeed, the lack of BC on One was truly the final nail in the coffin, as far as my continued participation in Xbox gaming is concerned.

 

[blamite]

Got any charts tracking the dropoff for Black Ops 2? Halo Reach? Modern Warfare 3? ODST? Gears of War 3?

I'd say these two pieces of information paint a pretty informative picture of how Halo 4 stands up compared to the competition.

 

[See You Next Wednesday]

They made Halo of Duty to catch the CoD crowd, but the CoD crowd went back to CoD and the Halo fanbase was alienated, thus losing everyone in the process.

Yup. Felt like I was playing a bad CoD clone & not a Halo game.
So when the real CoD game came out, it was over for Halo 4.

I personally sold the game the second I found out they would not let me play online unless I delete or buy the Crimson Map pack that I originally download not knowing it was a glitch.

The current & future Halo franchise & 343 could go to hell after that.

 

[Poker Face]

Got any charts tracking the dropoff for Black Ops 2? Halo Reach? Modern Warfare 3? ODST? Gears of War 3?

edit: beaten, check a couple posts above mine

This.

There seems to be a real prevailing notion here that the only way to "save" Halo is going back to catering to "pro players" or whatever only, when in reality that little niche of players is a small fraction of the daily playerbase that they so desperately care about maintaining.

oh please. No one is saying needs to fucking cater to pro players, Halo needs to cater to HALO fans.

 

[EGM1966]

The games will always sell 8m or 9m per game, but if MS want the series to be competitive in terms of multiplayer, then they need to start listening to the fans.

Everything runs out of steam eventually. Everything. And assuming the fans will always be there is the first step on the path.

If MS cannot get Halo games right for the market the franchise will fade just like any other. Halo 4 as clearly shown in the OP has suffered a serious issue with MP popularity compared to previous titles.

I doubt Halo is doomed, but if MS want it to have a long healthy life before sheer repetition naturally ends the franchise they need to deliver with Halo 5. If they deliver a game that twice in a row fades away online then the franchise will be in trouble.

 

[Overdoziz]

It was only at the top because they killed H2 otherwise H2 would have crushed H3 on the activity rankings after 4 months. 4 months was the shelf life for H3. Now, of course it stuck around for long because the competition was't strong then.

Do you mean by "they killed H2" the OG Xbox Live server shutdown? Because that didn't happen until 2010.

 

[Mr Swine]

So will this affect sales of the next halo games? Seeing how big of a drop in players compared to the previous games is not good.

 

[SpudBud]

Halo 4 was a disappointment all around. I played Halo 3 for years and Reach for a little less and Halo 4 a lot less. It's a shame that 4 turned out the way it did.

 

[Shosai]

I'd say these two pieces of information paint a pretty informative picture of how Halo 4 stands up compared to the competition.

Close, but these charts show ranking, not population count. Also keep in mind that rankings have only gotten more volatile over the years as more and more games crowd Xbox Live. Halo 3 didn't have much to compete against in 2007, it was THE one online shooter to get. Call of Duty 4 came out over a month later, but it didn't have a massive launch and only built up hype as time went on. Whereas by 2013 Halo 4 has share a userbase with every previous Halo release on the 360, along with the Call of Duty games (all six of them).

 

[aHebrewMenagerie]

So will this affect sales of the next halo games? Seeing how big of a drop in players compared to the previous games is not good.

Well expecting it to sell more copies in the same window as Halo 4 is litterally impossible. The install base for the Xbox One will be dismal compared how many people had 360s last year.

 

[Eoin]

So will this affect sales of the next halo games? Seeing how big of a drop in players compared to the previous games is not good.

It will sell less than Halo 4 due to install base alone. I can see some Halo fans coming back if 343 sort their shit out, but it takes a lot more effort to repair a relationship than it does to destroy one.

 

[Corronchilejano]

I keep hearing this "Bungie this, bungie that." The game had not changed forever and Bungie tried something new in Reach and everyone hated it. The only issue I have with 4 (gameplay wise) is that there's three types of the SAME weapon: Oh, a long range rifle, a precision rifle, a combat rifle and a pistol. Woopdie doo.

Give me unbalanced weapons, give me variety, experiment with the formula.

Alas, that will never happen.

 

[Plywood]

This.

There seems to be a real prevailing notion here that the only way to "save" Halo is going back to catering to "pro players" or whatever only, when in reality that little niche of players is a small fraction of the daily playerbase that they so desperately care about maintaining.

 

[User 73706]

man, juices is such a good poster.

michael vick and his army of bald eagles doe

 

[GhaleonEB]

Close, but these charts show ranking, not population count. Also keep in mind that rankings have only gotten more volatile over the years as more and more games crowd Xbox Live. Halo 3 didn't have much to compete against in 2007, it was THE one online shooter to get. Call of Duty 4 came out over a month later, but it didn't have a massive launch and only built up hype as time went on. Whereas by 2013 Halo 4 has share a userbase with every previous Halo release on the 360, along with the Call of Duty games (all six of them).

What they show is Halo 3 and Reach had stable rankings until their successor was released. Regardless of the absolute numbers, just look: Halo 3 was stable until Halo Reach came out. Reach was stable (if lower - dat competition) until Halo 4 came out. Halo 4 has been in freefall since release. The community and population didn't stick around. The peak population charts bear that out as well, not just the relative rankings. Fyre covered this:

* Roughly a year after release, Halo 3 had a 1.1 million peak population day. Reach had a 900,000 peak population day after the same amount of time. Halo 4 clocks in at 20,000 peak for it's annual checkup.

Halo 4's peak population is 98% lower than Reach's was, one year after their respective releases. Competition surely was a factor - look at the 200k drop from Halo 3 to Halo Reach in peak population a year later - but it's pretty clear that Halo 4's problem was Halo 4. (There's noise in this data, but it's what we've got, and the general story it shows is very consistent.)

 

[soulassssns]

No other AAA shooter has the same dropoff Halo 4 had.

Can you back up that claim?

 

[Hindle]

Everything runs out of steam eventually. Everything. And assuming the fans will always be there is the first step on the path.

If MS cannot get Halo games right for the market the franchise will fade just like any other. Halo 4 as clearly shown in the OP has suffered a serious issue with MP popularity compared to previous titles.

I doubt Halo is doomed, but if MS want it to have a long healthy life before sheer repetition naturally ends the franchise they need to deliver with Halo 5. If they deliver a game that twice in a row fades away online then the franchise will be in trouble.

The multiplayer faded, but the game was in the NPD charts for a full 4 months after launch so it's clear people were still buying the game for the single player. Franchises gain new fans and lose old ones all the time, it's a part of the industry.

Apart from that, yea I agree, 343 need to learn from thier mistakes and according to Frank, they've learned a lot from Halo 4.

 

[The Henery]

This is the bottom line.

Juices over in the Community side once said something that described the fundamental problem with what 343 did in making Halo 4. To paraphrase, they were chasing a group of players they are never going to catch - CoD - and lost Halo fans along the way. Now they've got almost no one.

I loved Halo, passionately. It was the reason, alone, I bought a 360. I put more time into Halo 3 than any other game, ever, until that time. Nightly romps in matchmaking, GAF custom game nights, picture stories (and later, video) were swapped daily. I made the GAF OT's for the Halo 3 Beta, Halo 3, Halo 3: ODST, Reach, Halo: CEA and Halo 4.

I gave Halo 4 away for free to a GAFer a few months after it came out, after not playing it for a few months before that. (Foolishly, I had bought the LE; I never redeemed the codes that came with it, and gave those away, too.) I'm buying a PS4 for next gen and will never own a new Halo game. The game is that bad.

343's first and biggest mistake was failing utterly to understand what made Halo, Halo.

Exhibit A: Instant respawn. Halo's combat is designed around a certain pacing. There's a cadence of combat, reprieve, shield recharge, and then re-engagement. Getting cleaned up by that guy you just killed because they respawned instantly, before your shields could recharge broke that cadence entirely.

Exhibit B: Global and Personal Ordnance. Goodbye, map control. Goodbye, rallying your team by securing that rocket launcher and taking out a vehicle. Goodbye, knowing what power weapons the other team has. Goodbye, any semblance or pretension of balance. Goodbye, fun.

Exhibit C: Flinch. Through the rise of CoD, Battlefield and other shooters, Halo has always been the game that prioritized combat clarity. It was the game that didn't screw with your ability to see during combat: no aim down sights, no strawberry jelly on the screen, no visual impairment from explosions. It was also that game that didn't add layers of interference and pushback to its weapon mechanics. Targeting reticles are stable as you move, (used to be) stable when firing, and stable when you were hit. The kill was learning how to use weapons, when to use them, and how to survive encounters of longer than normal duration.

Between the long range of the DRM and the addition of flinch, much of the combat was reduced to grappling with a bucking trageting reticle. That's not fun, or balanced, in any way. It's frustrating. It's my most hated addition to the game, over and above the horribleness that is....

Exhibit D: Perks. Prior to Reach, when you shot someone, or began an action, you could expect a certain action to follow it. I know I can four shot this guy; I know a grenade will strip shields and a head shot will kill. I know this dudes movement options, and that I have him cornered. I know if I get the jump on someone I have the advantage.

Enter perks, and all that goes out the window. When I EMP this vehicle, I wonder how effective it will be? When I engage this guy with the DMR, I wonder how stable his reticle is compared to mine? I wonder how fast this guy's shields recharge, or how fast he can reload, or how many shots he takes to kill? It breaks our ability to mange combat and make smart decisions, and reduces a lot of it to dumb luck. Shucks, I didn't think he had Stability on. Oh well! Better luck next time; maybe I'll run into some dudes where my perk selections give me the leg up next time.

And then they compounded perks, as other systems introduce problems. Hmm, adding the plasma pistol to loadouts totally breaks the vehicle balance. Let's add a perk to reduce the EMP stun! Let's add a mechanic like flinch - removing de-scoping for some reason - and then bring in a perk to partly offset it. Because balance or something.

Just one layer after another of decisions diametrically opposed to Halo's core combat design. Strip all of it away, and that core is pretty good. But you don't play the core, you play it all, and it was a terrible, unfun experience. The population flight looks like throngs of people buying the game, and then recoiling from it in response.

I've ignoring the campaign, the horrible UI, the awfulness that was Spartan Ops (though to be fair I only played the first three episodes) and the gimped feature set (RIP campaign Theater), not to mention the poor post-launch support (which Fyre covered in the superb OP). But those are surely factors as well.

I hope Halo 5 goes back to Halo's roots and is aimed at Halo fans rather than trying to poach features of other games. But those DLC perks do not inspire confidence.

Beautiful and succinct insight into some of the myriad problems Halo 4 had/has. It's a bit of a shame what the game did to the community really.

 

[Conor 419]

This.

There seems to be a real prevailing notion here that the only way to "save" Halo is going back to catering to "pro players" or whatever only, when in reality that little niche of players is a small fraction of the daily playerbase that they so desperately care about maintaining.

The prevailing notion is that Halo should go back to being a Halo game, a position it should never have left. Nintendo never abandoned the integrity of Mario or Zelda, Rockstar of GTA or Konami of MGS and those IP's have thrived for over 20 years. Microsoft should never have done that with Halo, yet they did because the appeal of that CoD cash was just too much for that greedy company.

 

[balohna]

I like Halo 4 a lot, but I haven't put a ton of hours into any Halo since 3. At this point I don't really play any multiplayer shooters for more than the initial month.

The novelty is gone, and I'd rather spend the time playing something in my backlog or a new release.

 

[Jaeger]

I enjoyed the mess out of Halo 4, SP and MP. I always get tired of playing shooters over and over again, no matter the franchise. A few months at a time. Sometimes I revisit them, sometime I don't. I played 4's MP MORE than the older ones, for numerous reasons.

But yea as someone else stated theres soo many more games that have nice sized followings than what was out there with 3 was out. Alot of my PC only friends spend just as much time on their console games now, too.

 

[Latvian Hitman]

That seems like much adieu about nothing. The Halo 4 multiplayer dropoff seems pretty typical for any AAA shooter in this day and age.

Got any charts tracking the dropoff for Black Ops 2? Halo Reach? Modern Warfare 3? ODST? Gears of War 3?

So, you make this claim that the speed and extent of Halo 4's population decline is typical for AAA shooters in this day and age, provide no basis whatsoever for that statement, and then come back asking those who disagree to provide it for you?

Close, but these charts show ranking, not population count. Also keep in mind that rankings have only gotten more volatile over the years as more and more games crowd Xbox Live. Halo 3 didn't have much to compete against in 2007, it was THE one online shooter to get. Call of Duty 4 came out over a month later, but it didn't have a massive launch and only built up hype as time went on. Whereas by 2013 Halo 4 has share a userbase with every previous Halo release on the 360, along with the Call of Duty games (all six of them).

In early-mid 2010, three years past its launch, Halo 3 was competing against three Call of Duty games, including MW2 and was pulling anywhere between 10 and 15 times the daily peak population that Halo 4 was 6 months past its launch. There is no way to sugarcoat or spin what happened with H4's multiplayer. It was an abject failure no matter what angle you try to look at it from.

 

[Karl2177]

What they show is Halo 3 and Reach had stable rankings until their successor was released. Regardless of the absolute numbers, just look: Halo 3 was stable until Halo Reach came out. Reach was stable (if lower - dat competition) until Halo 4 came out. Halo 4 has been in freefall since release. The community and population didn't stick around. The peak population charts bear that out as well, not just the relative rankings.

This is the chart for Halo 2 and Halo 3 in MP games/day. Halo 2 was no different from the other two, but it suffered from a much smaller install base.

 

[Warm Machine]

I think it is that science fiction is a dull place for people to be right now. Look at the top 20 chart. Gears and Halo are pretty much the only sci-fi games there. The market wants conventional and contemporary situations. There is no other data to be gleaned from it.

This is the same program that moved people from Half-Life MP to Counter Strike in the PC scene. It is a world wide shared and understood thematic.

 

[Poker Face]

Can you back up that claim?

Battlefield 3, Black Ops 1, Black Ops 2, Modern Warfare 3, all in the top 10. Halo 3 stayed in the top 3 almost 3 years after launch, Reach stayed in the top 5 almost a year after launch.

Halo 4 is struggling to stay in the top 15 less than a year after launch. Would you care to give me an example of a AAA FPS that fell that fast? And was a FLAGSHIP title?

 

[Kuroyume]

wat. Halo 2 didn't get shut down until like 2010

Do you mean by "they killed H2" the OG Xbox Live server shutdown? Because that didn't happen until 2010.

Yes, it's a damn shame they split the rankings for original XBOX and the 360 becuase I'm sure it would have shown H2 ranked over H3 if they were not to distort the numbers. H2 was ranking over GOW when it came out if I recall correctly. Then they split the charts.

 

[Aaron]

Can you back up that claim?

Look at the rankings. There are three CODs and two Battlefields with more players than Halo 4. Gears of War 3 is slumming, but it's been a long while since that came out. Sure there was Judgement, but I don't think anyone but maybe Epic considers that AAA. That was DOA on release.

I think it is that science fiction is a dull place for people to be right now. Look at the top 20 chart. Gears and Halo are pretty much the only sci-fi games there. The market wants conventional and contemporary situations. There is no other data to be gleaned from it.

Guess we'll have to wait until Spring, but Titanfall and Destiny will prove you completely wrong.

 

[RedRedSuit]

Well, I only care about campaign. I enjoyed that. While I enjoyed most Halos, 2 really dropped the ball; 3 had some really awful parts; ODST was merely OK; and Reach was excellent but felt stale after so many similar predecessors.

4 was good. I liked the melodramatic story (though it certainly had its problems and excesses), the setting was suitably grand, and I definitely loved the new enemies and enjoyed their new weapons. A valid criticism is that they de-Haloed Halo to some extent -- less focus on free-form use vehicles (and an absolutely disgraceful nerfing of Banshees), somewhat more confined levels; on the other hand this changed the feel of the game to make it feel at least a little fresh compared to the last few. So, there was some good and some bad, and while it certainly didn't recapture that OH WOW feeling of the original, it was still a worthy sequel that in my eyes kept the appeal of the franchise alive, the way another Bungie Halo would not have.

As for versus multiplayer, all feedback I've heard from other people suggests the OP is quite right.

 

[kingocfs]

OP of the year, really great read.

 

[CreateNowSleepLater]

.

we learned a lot.

as a team and a developer.

I think the best thing you have going is one of these threads seems to pop up once every 2 weeks. The community is a great asset if used correctly. I think if you guys were bridged with the community in a different way the feedback you would get would be a lot better than some of the stuff posted here. It's basically what you've been hearing for a year. Time for a where do you want Halo to go kind of thing. That get's everyone engaged and excited again.

It's moved on to Destiny.

Then they are frauds. Destiny isn't Halo. It has many of the things we complain are in Halo 4. Not that it wont be good but it's not Halo.

 

[Altered Juice]

They made Halo of Duty to catch the CoD crowd, but the CoD crowd went back to CoD and the Halo fanbase was alienated, thus losing everyone in the process.

funny thing is no one cared about cod till the 4th installment was released. now developers stray from what made their mp unique to copy it.

 

[Hindle]

Battlefield 3, Black Ops 1, Black Ops 2, Modern Warfare 3, all in the top 10. Halo 3 stayed in the top 3 almost 3 years after launch, Reach stayed in the top 5 almost a year after launch.

Halo 4 is struggling to stay in the top 15 less than a year after launch. Would you care to give me an example of a AAA FPS that fell that fast? And was a FLAGSHIP title?

343 could have done everything right with Halo 4 and the game would still have dropped off the charts like it did. BF and Cod are now the two big guns in multiplayer, plus the biggest franchises in the world. Halo to a certain extent reached its peak with Halo 3 multiplayer wise. There's no way they could continue to rival Cod and BF forever.

Edit. However, if they listen to the fans, and learn from thier mistakes, then it's plausible Halo will hang around the charts longer.