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(Hardware) September 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes Oct. 10

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donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, October 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 29-October 2 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: October 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code: 
Good              Bad
[NDS] 500K        [NDS] 500 thousand
[NDS] 500,000     [NDS] 500.000
[NDS] 500000      [NDS] - 500000
The Software Prediction thread is here.


Potential hardware impacting events in September:
PS3 Move and bundle - September 7
DSi/DSiXL price drop $150/$170 - September 12
Halo Reach and 360 bundle - September 14


August's Results - thanks to NPD and Road

Road said:
360 – 356,700
DS -342,700
Wii – 244,300
PS3 -226,000
PSP – 79,400

1. Madden NFL 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360) -- 920,800
2. Madden NFL 11 (Electronic Arts, PlayStation 3) -- 893,600
3. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo, Wii) - 124,600
4. Mafia II (Take 2 Interactive, Xbox 360) -- 121,600
5. New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo, DS) -- 110,400
6. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo)
7. Mafia II (Take 2 Interactive, PS3)
8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360)
9. NCAA Football 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360)
10. Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo)
Click to expand...
Aug-09 -> Sep-09 transition:

Code: 
      Aug-09  Sep-09   % change
360     215K    352K   + 64%
NDS     553K    524K   -  5%
PS3     210K    492K   +134%
PSP     140K    190K   + 36%
WII     277K    463K   + 67%

August Prediction Results
 
1- Everybody who wanted a 360 for Halo already got one. and nobody buys a 360 when they can wait a couple of months and get a better bundle with Kinect -if- they are interested in Kinect
2- Move=System mover. I am seeing a lot of cool commercials for Move.

[360] 330k
[NDS] 490k
[PS3] 340k
[PSP] 100k
[WII] 400k
 
Gadfly said:
1- Everybody who wanted a 360 for Halo already got one. and nobody buys a 360 when they can wait a couple of months and get a better bundle with Kinect -if- they are interested in Kinect
2- Move=System mover. I am seeing a lot of cool commercials for Move.

[360] 330k
[NDS] 490k
[PS3] 340k
[PSP] 100k
[WII] 400k
Click to expand...
You'll be surprised how many people were buying the Halo 360s.
 
Gadfly said:
1- Everybody who wanted a 360 for Halo already got one.
Click to expand...

I still think there are a few reasons why halo can push HW:

1 - There is a massive advertising push going with reach. This increases the awareness around the 360 brand and can get people interested regardless of the game.

2 - There is also the possiblity that the franchise could bring new people into the fold. Just look what happened with MW2 and MW1. Just because a game is a sequel doesn't mean it can't bring in new fans or be a system seller.

3 - There is now a slim version of the 360 and it is cheaper than the 360 was when halo 3 released. People may be more willing to get a 360 for halo now.

Gadfly said:
and nobody buys a 360 when they can wait a couple of months and get a better bundle with Kinect -if- they are interested in Kinect
Click to expand...

I'm not sure anyone is basing their 360 predictions this month off of kinect.

Last year the 360 sold 352,000. This year with the slim + reach + HW bundles you are predicting the 360 will sell less than last year.

I am certain the 360 will sell better than last year, whether or not it gets as high some are predicting is another matter.

Gadfly said:
2- Move=System mover. I am seeing a lot of cool commercials for Move.
Click to expand...

So you saw some cool commercials so that makes move a system seller? I do think move will help push HW but i think there is no chance that it pushes the PS3 above the 360 this month.
 
AdventureRacing said:
I still think there are a few reasons why halo can push HW:

1 - There is a massive advertising push going with reach. This increases the awareness around the 360 brand and can get people interested regardless of the game.

2 - There is also the possiblity that the franchise could bring new people into the fold. Just look what happened with MW2 and MW1. Just because a game is a sequel doesn't mean it can't bring in new fans or be a system seller.

3 - There is now a slim version of the 360 and it is cheaper than the 360 was when halo 3 released. People may be more willing to get a 360 for halo now.
Click to expand...

4. Xbox owners upgrading from old 360 to slim. Reach acting as the catalyst.
 
Gadfly said:
1- Everybody who wanted a 360 for Halo already got one. and nobody buys a 360 when they can wait a couple of months and get a better bundle with Kinect -if- they are interested in Kinect
2- Move=System mover. I am seeing a lot of cool commercials for Move.

[360] 330k
[NDS] 490k
[PS3] 340k
[PSP] 100k
[WII] 400k
Click to expand...

you are nowhere to find on the prediction points ranking, how should we trust you?
 
Jonsoncao said:
you are nowhere to find on the prediction points ranking, how should we trust you?
Click to expand...
He does this every month for 360 sales, either an elaborate reverse jinx or he's just messing with you guys.
 
Gadfly said:
1- Everybody who wanted a 360 for Halo already got one. and nobody buys a 360 when they can wait a couple of months and get a better bundle with Kinect -if- they are interested in Kinect
2- Move=System mover. I am seeing a lot of cool commercials for Move.

[360] 330k
[NDS] 490k
[PS3] 340k
[PSP] 100k
[WII] 400k
Click to expand...


lolwut? High profile games whether it's a new IP or the 20th sequels will always help move systems. Especially when it even has its' own collector's edition bundle.

[360] 550k
[NDS] 400k
[PS3] 280k
[PSP] 110k
[WII] 230k

Giving the PSP a chance with Kingdom Heart BBS bundles and such. =/
 
[360] 420,000
[NDS] 490,000
[PS3] 280,000
[PSP] 80,000
[WII] 300,000

Didn't realise NDS price drop. Thanks jvm.
 
[360] 520K
[NDS] 500K
[WII] 310K
[PS3] 250K
[PSP] 110K

I'm curious at the reasons people are predicting NDS lower than 430K. A drop in units (per week) in the same month there is a price drop on the models contributing more than half NDS sales?
 
Gadfly said:
1- Everybody who wanted a 360 for Halo already got one. and nobody buys a 360 when they can wait a couple of months and get a better bundle with Kinect -if- they are interested in Kinect
2- Move=System mover. I am seeing a lot of cool commercials for Move.

[360] 330k
[NDS] 490k
[PS3] 340k
[PSP] 100k
[WII] 400k
Click to expand...

:lol
 
[360] 600k
[NDS] 440k
[PS3] 320k
[PSP] 100k
[WII] 295k

first time playing! (gonna get slaughtered)

EDIT: 5 week month, shame on me
 
[360] 430,000
[DS] 390,000
[PS3] 240,000
[Wii] 230,000
[PSP] 60,000

My second time (I think) predicting hardware sales, possessing not even a smattering of knowledge. Analysis of my numbers: Move won't affect sales in the US. US citizens don't have this distinctly European affinity for awkward movements. (Unless an ad campaign successfully suggests otherwise.) Some people predict 360 sales above 500,000. Doubt it. I do believe people are holding out for Kinect. (Remember: ad campaign!) Wii slowly starting to spiral downwards, out of people's minds.
 
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