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How successful do you think Dragon Quest XI could be in the West?

I think a big factor would be WHEN they release it. Are they releasing during a busy holiday season with competition or during a lull when people are looking for new games? I think DQ could really do well if released in a month without much competition and some good promotion.
 
Strings said:
Builders did ~500k in the West, which isn't bad at all.
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As someone that works at retail, I have serious doubts that it sold through that many copies in the west alone. That Squenix themselves never clarified just how the regions were split beyond what we already knew from Japanese charts is telling in of itself, and the silence surrounding just how badly DQH2 abroad is deafening.
 
Some Nobody said:
If PS4+Steam+Switch doesn't get this game a million plus, S-E should just take the franchise mobile and enjoy the free cash. :P

This game looks amazing, and while there are a LOT of JRPGs lately, there aren't so many that you can just skip one and not feel it. I would be shocked if people didn't show up for this title.
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Just want to be clear that I am solely talking about the western sales for the game, not including Japanese sales. It'll probably do 2-3 million in Japan alone. But outside of Japan, 1 million is about as well as they could hope for, the brand is not nearly as strong world wide as it is in Japan. This isn't Final Fantasy.
 
I'm thinking 3 million units in the first week successful. It's got everything I want in an RPG:

Single player component
Customization
Kick ass story
epic battle system

I am starved for a high quality Japanese RPG that isn't Final Fantasy (most recent one not the FF7 remake). There's a market for this with customers willing to spend money. Add in digital distribution that makes it easier to buy and we have the makings of a hit on our hands.
 
Considering the reason is on the PS4 is for it to be more successful in the west I guess like 3 million is the goal
 
I'm guessing Square-Enix won't have a co-marketing deal with Sony or Nintendo and I'm kind of wary of their marketing team for games like this.
 
How successful COULD it be? Extremely. With a competent marketing campaign it could top 500K in the west easily. How successful WILL it be? Not very. I have very little faith in S-E after the way they've been horribly botching DQ promotion in the west for literally 30 years.
 
Having a traditional RPG of the scope and scale of DQXI on the PS4 could help it move a lot of copies. There are definitely a lot of people who still want that kind of game, and things like I Am Setsuna is too small and something like Persona is too niche.
 
Balb said:
I'm guessing Square-Enix won't have a co-marketing deal with Sony or Nintendo and I'm kind of wary of their marketing team for games like this.
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I think that there is a decent chance that Nintendo will help out regardless. They do like the series and it would guarantee at least one 3DS title to sell in the west for 2018. They're also pretty cool with co-marketing games that are otherwise multiplatform, though that opportunity usually doesn't come up due to what third parties are usually trying to sell.
 
Ridley327 said:
I think that there is a decent chance that Nintendo will help out regardless. They do like the series and it would guarantee at least one 3DS title to sell in the west for 2018. They're also pretty cool with co-marketing games that are otherwise multiplatform, though that opportunity usually doesn't come up due to what third parties are usually trying to sell.
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It's definitely possible but I feel like NoA is positioning the 3DS as a kid-friendly/hand-me-down system at the moment so I'm not sure what the sales potential is for a game like this on 3DS in 2018.
 
When Dragon Quest games have commercials on TV here they sell. DQ8 and DQ9 are proof of this. No one is going to buy them if they don't know they exist. They also need to exploit the Toriyama angle since Dragon Ball is popular here.
 
Zee-Row said:
When Dragon Quest games have commercials on TV here they sell. DQ8 and DQ9 are proof of this. No one is going to buy them if they don't know they exist. They also need to exploit the Toriyama angle since Dragon Ball is popular here.
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DQ8 sold because of the FF demo. DQIX sold because Nintendo pushed the hell out of it in the West combined with being on the DS. I have no confidence in SQE pushing DQXI.
 
Jpop said:
DQ8 sold because of the FF demo. DQIX sold because Nintendo pushed the hell out of it in the West combined with being on the DS. I have no confidence in SQE pushing DQXI.
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Nobody is going to know that Dragon Quest 8 has a Final Fantasy demo if it's not being advertised in the first place. It doesn't matter what they include it still sold.

Tobal no.1 sold like crap and it had a Final Fantasy VII demo and that game was much more highly anticipated than FFXII ever was.
 
I can't believe that the last mainline DQ we got on a home console was back in 2005 on a PS2. DQXI went portable and DQX (the only mainline DQ game in HD) didn't even come out outside of Japan!

DQXI will do okay in its niche but I wouldn't expect it to sell over 1 million outside of Japan.
 
Jpop said:
DQ8 sold because of the FF demo. DQIX sold because Nintendo pushed the hell out of it in the West combined with being on the DS. I have no confidence in SQE pushing DQXI.
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It's worth noting that DQ8 sold more in Europe than it did in NA, and it did so without an FF12 demo.
But that was a long time ago.
 
Zee-Row said:
Nobody is going to know that Dragon Quest 8 has a Final Fantasy demo if it's not being advertised in the first place. It doesn't matter what they include it still sold.

Tobal no.1 sold like crap and it had a Final Fantasy VII demo and that game was much more highly anticipated than FFXII ever was.
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So you are saying if DQ8 released with out the FF demo it would have sold nearly as well?
Aeana said:
It's worth noting that DQ8 sold more in Europe than it did in NA, and it did so without an FF12 demo.
But that was a long time ago.
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Sadly I think a lot of damage was done to the brand in the DS era. DQIX had an incredible marketing push, but I felt it sold lackluster in comparison to the push.

Literally the exact opposite of the MH brand in the West. Funny what proper brand management brings you.
 
Jpop said:
So you are saying if DQ8 released with out the FF demo it would have sold nearly as well?
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It would sell slightly less but that's it. Dragon Quest VIII was a good looking game at the time of it's release and I think the Dragon Ball looking characters helped that.
 
DQ8 and 9 did fine in the west but they were pushed really hard

Of course DQ will never be a behemoth here but people generally lowball how well the mainline games can do with a little proper marketing
 
Jpop said:
So you are saying if DQ8 released with out the FF demo it would have sold nearly as well?


Sadly I think a lot of damage was done to the brand in the DS era. DQIX had an incredible marketing push, but I felt it sold lackluster in comparison to the push.

Literally the exact opposite of the MH brand in the West. Funny what proper brand management brings you.
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DQ8 and DQ9 both sold a little over a million in NA/EU combined. There wasn't a huge change.
 
I'm sure FF12 helped but that was kind of the tip of the iceberg for the push for that game. Gamestops putting up DQ8 free demo disk displays, commercials playing like 20 times a day, etc.
 
Aeana said:
DQ8 and DQ9 both sold a little over a million in NA/EU combined. There wasn't a huge change.
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There wasn't much change combined with a larger marketing push shows either a decline, or something else pushed DQ8 sales.

On the other hand it could be that DQIX just wasn't as deseriable, or brand mismanagement.
 
I can only speak for myself, but every time I try to play a Dragon Quest game I quit almost immediately. They are SO dull. These games are weaponized boredom if you don't have the nostalgia.
 
edeo said:
I can only speak for myself, but every time I try to play a Dragon Quest game I quit almost immediately. They are SO dull. These games are weaponized boredom if you don't have the nostalgia.
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They aren't. You don't have to like them, but they aren't.

It's 👌.
 
SolidSnakex said:
Well, you never know what Square's internal expectations are, but it really doesn't seem all that bad. It's a Minecraft-inspired game that costs $40-60, depending on which platform you bought it for, while Minecraft itself is $20.
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This, basically. I mean ultimately you look at Builders and you can't claim it's got a mass appeal. It's a spin-off and a clone of a mid-tier (in the West) J-RPG franchise. 300k is fine.
 
I think it could do really well if it releases on 3ds, PS4, and Switch. DQ remakes and spin offs have been floating around for awhile now.. I bet people are interested in a new core game.
 
edeo said:
I can only speak for myself, but every time I try to play a Dragon Quest game I quit almost immediately. They are SO dull. These games are weaponized boredom if you don't have the nostalgia.
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Im no dq pro or anything but 7 on 3ds is easily one of the worst jrpgs i spent 20 hours on. The production values are great and i think theyre achieving what they set out to but goddamn were those 20hrs a giant chore.
There are some rather baffling design choices that these games stick that make them so mucj worse than they need to be.
 
The DS games bombed pretty hard in the west, right? I know they had limited print runs though.

I just bought DQV the other day, so it's funny this topic comes up.
 
I don't think you can look at IX or even the remakes of VII and VIII as good indicators because it's been so long since the last Dragon Quest game released on a major console. Like there was one on the PS1, and that's as Enix were basically crumbling in the west, and the last one was on the PS2 which sold really well and a lot of people have reverence for

XI could come out and sell like 500k in the west, but it's far from a sure thing. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the game to breakthrough to a lot of people in the same way that Yakuza 0 was. It seems like the right game on the right platform at the right time

If there was a PC version it would be an easy million

e: not to mention there are a lot of people who will probably buy both versions due to the novelty of the 3DS game so that will inflate numbers a bit
 
There are a lot of succsesful stories about recent RPGs doing well here in west such as FFXV and Persona, the game looks big budget compared to the previous DQs (at least the PS4 version) and people like that, with the PS4 being as strong as it is, i can see the game selling a million just the PS4 version and 2M all version combined. Of course if SE launches this in the holiday season they will send it to die, a Q1 2018 release date would be ideal IMO.

I will buy it regardless, it's my most anticipated game right now.
 
Probably not very, but I really hope it does well. I've been really enjoying DQ 8 over the past week, everything about it is just so comfy and nice, and XI looks like it's going to be like 8 but even better.

I really hope they don't go overboard with the dumb accents for every goddamn village, though, like they did with DQ7. DQ8 strikes the perfect balance with this.
 
Haven't been many big-budget turn based JRPGs this gen but ones like Persona have sold well. I think it'll do better than a lot of people think.
 
If SE markets it and we get the console/3DS and maybe even a Steam version +2m. Even with the worst case scenario of Switch/PS4 i think it will sell +1m based on it being a DQ8 follow up and the strength of PS4/Switch.
 
PS4 version probably wouldn't even exist at all if SE wasn't interested in pushing it in the west, so I like to think that they'll actually put in an earnest marketing attempt.

Nintendo has done well in pushing some properties like Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Bravely Default, and Fire Emblem in the west to grow an audience for less mainstream Japanese games, so there is potential, but there's also a ceiling.

I'm going to say 1.2-1.5m sales in NA/EU/AU combined between all versions. I think DQ8 and DQ9 both managed 1m sales outside of Japan. Granted, they were on PS2 and DS, the two best selling systems ever.
 
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