It's that time of the year again.... The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. This season marks the beginning of the end for La Niña, which supresses development in the Pacific and spurs it in the Atlantic, and the start of a Neutral phase, which in kinder words means everything goes hyperdrive as we transition from that to an expected El Niño towards the end of 2011.
Ripped straight from Wikipedia:
The names for the systems this year are:
Watch out guys, this promises to be as intense as 2010. US got lucky last time, but luck doesn't run forever.
Model Links:
[url] Satellite: Caribbean RGB: [url]
Ripped straight from Wikipedia:
Noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Klotzbach's team, formerly led by Gray, determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms of at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.
Pre-season forecasts
On December 8, 2010, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2011 season, predicting well above-average activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. As well, the team expected an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value of approximately 165, citing that El Niño conditions were unlikely to develop by the start of the season. Lastly, the team noted a higher chance for storms to make landfall in the United States than in 2010.[2] In addition, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium that comprises experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast a few days prior to that of CSU, with similar estimates for the year. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 40% above the 19502010 average, with 15.6 (±4.3) tropical storms, 8.4 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 4.0 (±1.7) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 141 (±58).[3] On April 6, 2011, the CSU slightly revised their December forecast, predicting 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.[6]
On May 19, 2011, the Climate Prediction Center issued NOAA's outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season. The CPC expected that 1218 named storms, 610 hurricanes, and 36 major hurricanes would form in the Atlantic during 2011. The center cited above-normal sea surface temperatures, a weakening La Niña, and the effect of the warm regime of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation as the bases behind their forecast, adding that seasonal climate models hint that "activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995" could occur.[7]
The names for the systems this year are:
Arlene: Formed June 29 in the Gulf of Mexico. Landfall: S. Tampico, MX. Max: 60mph
[*] Bret: Formed July 17th in the Western North Atlantic.-
Cindy: Formed July 20th in North Atlantic near Bermudas. Fish storm. -
Don:Formed July 27th between the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. -
Emily:Formed August 1st. DR/Haiti hit. 50mph max. -
Franklin:August 12. Went fishing. 45mph. -
Gert :August 14. Went fishing! 60mph -
Harvey:August 18. Hit Belize. Emerged over the BOC and hit Mexico as a TD. 60mph - Irene : First Hurricane. First major.. Crossed Leewards Island as a minimal TS... hit St. Croix as a strong Tropical Storm. Crossed PR from SE to North as a strong storm/Hurricane (strengthened over the island). Affected Northern Parts of Hispaniola and affecting the Bahamas. Moderatedly affected North Carolina, Va, NJ and NYC. Landfalls in NC, NJ, NYC, Puerto Rico, Bahamas. Max Strength: 120mph.
- Jose: Surprise storm. Formed August 28th. Affected Bermudas Maximum Strength: 40mph.
- Katia
- Lee
- Maria
- Nate
- Ophelia
- Philippe
- Rina
- Sean
- Tammy
- Vince
- Whitney
Watch out guys, this promises to be as intense as 2010. US got lucky last time, but luck doesn't run forever.
Model Links:
[url] Satellite: Caribbean RGB: [url]