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IDC analyst: Wii supply won't meet demand until 2009
- Thread starter Alcibiades
- Start date
speculawyer
Member
Link said:
The point was to show that Nintendo has a known history of engineering shortages.
Perhaps I can connect the dots for you.
1) Someone says Nintendo won't meet supply until 2009.
2) I point out that illogical . . . that could only really happen if Nintendo wanted shortages because electronics manufacturers can easily replicate an existing assembly line in less than two years. I also point that it is possible that they may to create these shortages and have done intentional shortages in the past.
3) I am then accused of creating a joke post. (How dare he imply that our great Messiah Nintendo may create an intentional shortage!)
4) So I brought up some history showing that Nintendo has been accused of creating intentional shortages in the past.
There are many reasons for intentional shortages. And infact we've seen them lately. The DS supply was reduced so they could build up a supply to sell along with the new Pokemon releases. The Wii supply dried up so they could shift revenue into the next fiscal year. (Just look at the NPD sales!)
There are reasons to keep the Wii supply low: keep the hype up, keep the price point firm, etc. Will Nintendo keep doing that for 2 years? I dunno . . . seems stupid to me, but it is possible.
Link
The Autumn Wind
DeceitDecide said:
I think you should both check out this thread. Point 7 is what you're looking for.MobiusPigeon said:
JzeroT1437
Member
Forgotten Ancient said:
Sadly, I'm not sure if you're joking about the last one or not.
crazyscreenwriter
Banned
Wii System Scalping FTW!
PiccoloCube
Banned
Link said:
HAL_Laboratory
Member
MobiusPigeon said:
This whole post is like... yeah, I mean it completely contradicts itself.
If only one game has carried Wii into super-stardom, then what will happen when actual good software starts coming out? That's the whole point -- the entire success of Wii to this point has been based on 1 or 2 releases (one of which came with the system). We've got so many games on the horizon it's ridiculous. Nintendo is sitting on a mountain of gold, and they're only going to pull a good one out when sales start to slump.
MobiusPigeon said:
While I can agree a gamer can't live on the Wii alone. I think it's quite easy to see where gamers are getting their entertainment from. Wii, DS, PS2 and PSP.
The market is pretty much saturated with systems and games at the moment. Gamers don't necessarily need a graphics power house.
Frankfurter
Member
Joates said:
What exactly makes you think that? Perhaps you missed it, but the most successful console of the last generation was PS2. It also had less power than its competitors. And more AAA games.
Jamesfrom818
Banned
Evilink said:
The Wii is selling out with just a few good games as it is. Super Mario Galaxy, SMB: Brawl, Wii Fitness and the rest of the Wii Sports styled games could keep momentum going for quite a while.
MobiusPigeon
Banned
Link said:
??? how is it trolling? look at my post history. i'm a huge supporter of the wii60 movement. Name me 3 titles that will be must buys on wii before and after Mario Galaxy hits thru christmas. Its pretty damn hard. Where as on 360 this year is almost TOO full. In the end its the GAMES that sell systems. Sold out thru 2009 is a huge stretch and even if it did i just dont see the software lighting the world on fire. sorry for having an opinion that doesnt match yours.
system price is probably the ONLY factor in this. Even sony themselves were fooled into thinking the legions of ps2 fans would jump right over to the ps3 because the ps2 demographic is so fkng huge. Didnt happen and wont because the price is so damn wrong. Same with 360. BUT 360 is closer to a price drop than the ps3 IMO and has tons of great software to back up the sales.
speculawyer
Member
TSA said:
Speak of NPD numbers . . . did you see how the Wii console sales went down? How is that possible when every Wii that appears is sold?
IMHO, Nintendo slowed down the Wii supply in order to shift some revenue into the next fiscal year. Such revenue shifting is an extremely common business practice.
No way in hell. Just no. The Wii shortage driving up demand is good, and it might genuinely last until sometime next year. But if by holiday 2008 Nintendo isn't able to meet demand, they're idiots. The whole point of driving up demand is to increase sales. So, what's the point of continually undesupplying after 2 years? The whole point is the get the ball rolling. The only way that the Wii will be supply constrained through that long is A) It really is that shit hot that Nintendo's best efforts to supply aren't good enough (doubtful, given how much time they have to ramp up production) B)It's at least in part an intentional shortage.
If it's A, then the Wii has just earned itself a place in entertainment history as the world hottest game system ever. If it's B, it's straight retarded because ALOT of ppl who might buy the system early on because of the hype are gonna move on to the next hot thing. Tell me, how did Tickle Me Elmo dolls do in year 2 after supply was cleared up? And yes, ppl will move on. It's what consumers do, they inevitably move onto to the next thing chic. If you miss that crucial point where your supply isn't meeting the necessary demand to get those consumers on board, you'll miss it forever. That's not even mentioning the fact that MS and Sony aren't just gonna sit there get railroaded. They're gonna cut prices, they're gonna bring out their heavy weight games. They are gonna do everything they can to stay in the game, and if Nintendo is arrogant enough to cause an intentional supply constraint(which I doubt from Iwata's Nintendo, but wouldn't put it past Yamauchi if he was still in charge), they will pay for it.
If it's A, then the Wii has just earned itself a place in entertainment history as the world hottest game system ever. If it's B, it's straight retarded because ALOT of ppl who might buy the system early on because of the hype are gonna move on to the next hot thing. Tell me, how did Tickle Me Elmo dolls do in year 2 after supply was cleared up? And yes, ppl will move on. It's what consumers do, they inevitably move onto to the next thing chic. If you miss that crucial point where your supply isn't meeting the necessary demand to get those consumers on board, you'll miss it forever. That's not even mentioning the fact that MS and Sony aren't just gonna sit there get railroaded. They're gonna cut prices, they're gonna bring out their heavy weight games. They are gonna do everything they can to stay in the game, and if Nintendo is arrogant enough to cause an intentional supply constraint(which I doubt from Iwata's Nintendo, but wouldn't put it past Yamauchi if he was still in charge), they will pay for it.
MobiusPigeon said:??? how is it trolling? look at my post history. i'm a huge supporter of the wii60 movement. Name me 3 titles that will be must buys on wii before and after Mario Galaxy hits thru christmas. Its pretty damn hard. Where as on 360 this year is almost TOO full. In the end its the GAMES that sell systems. Sold out thru 2009 is a huge stretch and even if it did i just dont see the software lighting the world on fire. sorry for having an opinion that doesnt match yours.
Point 4. :lol
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
I picked up Wii Play over the weekend because I needed an extra remote and had a coupon to get ten bucks off - so, why pass up a free game even if it's a stupid shallow non-game?
Truth be told, despite the reviews, I am playing Wii Play a lot; yes, most of it is stupidly shallow (but that does not automatically mean bad - see below), but 100 levels of Tanks! is Serious Business.
But I'm still playing the stupid shallow games because they are just fun. The motion controls are really not bad and make them a different experience.
I think this relates to the topic at hand - there /is/ great potential in the Wii interface and people aren't looking at the flipside of games like Wii Sports and Wii Play. If involving experiences can be created with so little time and investment, /of course/ Nintendo can pull out all the stops with a string of tour-de-force titles whenever they like.
Of course, 3rd parties really are screwing Wii over right now with their bloody flood of $5 budget crap and half-assed ports, with amazing Anti-Art Power that makes ported flash games on XBLA look like Zelda. Just like the DS, cheap 3rd party efforts may be the Wii's true enemy.
But that hasn't stopped the DS, either...
Truth be told, despite the reviews, I am playing Wii Play a lot; yes, most of it is stupidly shallow (but that does not automatically mean bad - see below), but 100 levels of Tanks! is Serious Business.
But I'm still playing the stupid shallow games because they are just fun. The motion controls are really not bad and make them a different experience.
I think this relates to the topic at hand - there /is/ great potential in the Wii interface and people aren't looking at the flipside of games like Wii Sports and Wii Play. If involving experiences can be created with so little time and investment, /of course/ Nintendo can pull out all the stops with a string of tour-de-force titles whenever they like.
Of course, 3rd parties really are screwing Wii over right now with their bloody flood of $5 budget crap and half-assed ports, with amazing Anti-Art Power that makes ported flash games on XBLA look like Zelda. Just like the DS, cheap 3rd party efforts may be the Wii's true enemy.
But that hasn't stopped the DS, either...
speculawyer said:
I generally agree with your posts but you're off the cliff with this one. The shipment figures were announced last E3 and they pretty much matched what Sony planned to ship which was 6 million units. Then ended up shipping 6.5.
No one cried engineered shortage then, in fact some wondered out loud if they would be able to sell them all. At as late as November, people were speculating demand would drop off in January.
GAF was wrong, don't let people cover for their intellectual shortcomings by buying into their ad hoc theories and explanations.
DeceitDecide said:
OK this is wrong on so many levels.
1. The "casual gamers don't care about graphics" argument is a valid one. I didn't believe this argument until I actually bought a Wii, but in my flat I'm probably the one that spends the least amount of time playing it, despite it being more of a hobby for me than any of the others. People really do love this thing. My flatmate who previously sort of turned her nose up at games went through a period there where she simply couldn't stop talking about it. Did she ever mention the graphics? No. They spend a lot of time playing Virtual Console titles in addition to Wii games and the graphics simply don't register with them. It's entirely inconsequential.
2. If anything the balance of line-ups is going to shift in Wii's favour rather than away from it as more developers allocate resources to the system. More system sales = more games. Wii is dominating the PS3 and 360 at the moment despite having what is arguably a considerably weaker line-up. What's going to happen when it has a considerably stronger one?
3. Why did you mention broadband? Wii loves broadband. Look at the Weather, News, Internet and Everybody Votes Channels. These aren't just features that take advantage of broadband, these are mass-market features which take advantage of broadband.
Frankfurter said:
PS2 was neither a generation behind the other consoles, nor based on a gimmick.
Link said:
What, you dont like AAA traditional games apparently?
What on the Wii is geared towards a traditional "gamer"?
Wiitard said:
Not until that software actually starts moving in large quantities. What good is a userbase if theyre not buying new games?
The denial in this thread is amazing.
For people that don't think its possible because game factor and others..
heres my two quotes:
Wii is not a tradicional console, it already appeal to everyone, it don't need the games to appeal more.. Don't even think about what will happen when we start getting more games...
For people that don't think its possible because game factor and others..
heres my two quotes:
Yeah.. That's the way i see it, even with only Wii Sports everyone (but some "gamers") want the system... So until everyone get the "wii sports" system it dont really matter, for the consoles sales, if games are released or not..sk3tch said:
Again, yeah, Wii is a hit from the beginning, and seems to attract way more than the PS2, if PS2 sold 110 millions, Wii may sell more, and faster..laserbeam said:
Wii is not a tradicional console, it already appeal to everyone, it don't need the games to appeal more.. Don't even think about what will happen when we start getting more games...
Zombie James
Banned
Tiduz said:i weep for the nintendo fanboys
What's the story behind this? :lol
Polari said:
QFT
Library-wise right now is the worst moment for Wii relative to the other consoles without a show of a doubt.
Joates said:
I can see it so clearly. Meeting at the publisher:
- Wii has been selling 3 million a month. Should we switch resourses.
- No, let's wait and see. It's not like our survival depends on it. Oh, wait!
Has anyone considered this scenario?
The Wii has had shortages since launch, so recently Nintendo increased production (per their own claims, we'll just assume they're telling the truth for the sake of argument.). That means more Wiis than previously are available. More people go out to buy these new Wiis, and demand increases, because now all their friends want Wiis as well.
So next quarter, Nintendo increases production again. Still sells out, and now demand increases again, because a whole new group of people have been introduced to the Wii phenomenon.
This process can pretty much carry on for 2 to 3 years, with Wii supply increasing every quarter, and still selling out, because demand could easily increase right along with supply. The more people exposed to the phenomenon, the more demand there is, and as sold units increase, better software increases, and people who may have passed it up before may reconsider, and demand increases again.
This is only one scenario that could have the Wii producing and selling more units than every console throught history, and still being supply constrained into 2009.
The Wii has had shortages since launch, so recently Nintendo increased production (per their own claims, we'll just assume they're telling the truth for the sake of argument.). That means more Wiis than previously are available. More people go out to buy these new Wiis, and demand increases, because now all their friends want Wiis as well.
So next quarter, Nintendo increases production again. Still sells out, and now demand increases again, because a whole new group of people have been introduced to the Wii phenomenon.
This process can pretty much carry on for 2 to 3 years, with Wii supply increasing every quarter, and still selling out, because demand could easily increase right along with supply. The more people exposed to the phenomenon, the more demand there is, and as sold units increase, better software increases, and people who may have passed it up before may reconsider, and demand increases again.
This is only one scenario that could have the Wii producing and selling more units than every console throught history, and still being supply constrained into 2009.
None of this should be taken as given, but it is possible. You have no better idea of what will actually happen than I do.
HAL_Laboratory
Member
HylianScribe
Member
Does anyone believe that Nintendo is holding back some Wii units now to stockpile for Holiday 07?
Just curious.
Just curious.
justchris said:
Obviosly, we're all speculating so none of us will know the truth until it happens.
I can see your point, but I think it's problematic in that it assumes the Wii is in an entertainment vacuum. While the demand could constantly increase, one cannot ignore the competition as well new popular entertainment items that will come out between now and 2009. In fact, that's my biggest issue with this whole "until 2009" thing. Products come out all the time that "steal the thunder" away from other products, and 2 years is a very long time.
Mariah Carey
Member
For those saying there is no possible way for Wii to be supply constrained into 2009, think of it this way: if there was only one company producing the entire world's supply of DVD players, would it be plausible to assume said company would have some trouble meeting demand?
I'm not saying the Wii will be as hot as DVD, but I'm trying to illustrate how it could be possible.
I'm not saying the Wii will be as hot as DVD, but I'm trying to illustrate how it could be possible.
HAL_Laboratory
Member
Mariah Carey said:
Well, Wii is the only Wii Sports player in the world, so yeah.