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Is Italy's lockdown a failure?

Is it a failure?

  • Yes

    Votes: 38 34.9%
  • No

    Votes: 39 35.8%
  • Too early to tell, in a week this will be an epic backfire

    Votes: 32 29.4%

  • Total voters
    109

Sandyman

Neo Member
Not necessarily considering the disease was already spread. And even if there were more Chinese carriers in general, there is no evidence to say any one of those were in Florence and was hugged by people so why would I claim someone is a carrier when I have no evidence of them being one?
Alright so you understand that the chinese are capable of spreading disease. Now let us take this into a smaller situation so you may possibly understand where I am coming from with my logic of "don't hug fucking people who could be sick for good boy points".

Say you are at a party among different families. You don't know which family is sick, or how many are sick. Would you hug every member of that family to prove that you accept them?
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Yep. and do you think that hugging chinese tourists really had no effect on the disastrous spread in Italy? there are other causes, yes. But THAT was Italy's fuck up and it was their choice and it bit them in the ass.
I mean probably very little. Other than putting yourself in someone's personal space for maybe ten seconds it isn't really that likely to spread the disease. Being in a bar or airplane etc when someone coughs or sneezes or being in the general vicinity of someone for an extended period would be a much greater risk.
Hugging random people during a major epidemic is stupid but I doubt it had any significant impact. The message it sent, that the virus wasn't that big a deal may have though.
 

crowbrow

Banned
Alright so you understand that the chinese are capable of spreading disease. Now let us take this into a smaller situation so you may possibly understand where I am coming from with my logic of "don't hug fucking people who could be sick for good boy points".

Say you are at a party among different families. You don't know which family is sick, or how many are sick. Would you hug every member of that family to prove that you accept them?
The original post didn't say "hugging persons who COULD be sick" it said hugging persons that were known to be sick. The latter case is incorrect as you have failed to provide proof of known sick people. And besides anyone at that point could have been sick, not only Chinese, so hugging anyone would have been equally stupid.
 

Sandyman

Neo Member
The original post didn't say "hugging persons who COULD be sick" it said hugging persons that were known to be sick. The latter case is incorrect as you have failed to provide proof of known sick people. And besides anyone at that point could have been sick, not only Chinese, so hugging anyone would have been equally stupid.
ok fine. there are no posts from major news sources that explicitly says that the chinese people from the country and even sometimes city of origin of this highly contagious contact-spread disease carried the virus when the Italians hugged them randomly in the streets like a week or two before the explosion of confirmed cases.

Could you at least agree that knowingly putting yourself and others at that kind of risk was fucking stupid? or was that a really good and progressive idea that we all need to follow?
 

crowbrow

Banned
Could you at least agree that knowingly putting yourself and others at that kind of risk was fucking stupid?
I can but I have a problem when people claim that hugging Chinese was stupid. By the time that was happening basically hugging anyone was stupid. Centering on Chinese people alone sounds unnecessary and ignorant.
 

Sandyman

Neo Member
I can but I have a problem when people claim that hugging Chinese was stupid. By the time that was happening basically hugging anyone was stupid. Centering on Chinese people alone sounds unnecessary and ignorant.
ok so acting cautious around people who are the origin of the illness and not hugging them is ignorant. my apologies. What the Italians did was progressive and putting themselves at risk was necessary to promote equality. can't sound racist, after all!
 

Cato

Banned
I can but I have a problem when people claim that hugging Chinese was stupid. By the time that was happening basically hugging anyone was stupid. Centering on Chinese people alone sounds unnecessary and ignorant.

In a region in Italy where due to their business with china, they:
1, have a lot of chineese
2, in particular from Wuhan
3, they even know that Wuhan is the epicentre of the virus at that time
4, they go out of their way to hug foreigners they know have a very good probability to have come from Wuhan.

Yes. It is pretty stupid. They went out of their way to hug a segment of their population that at the time WAS KNOWN to have significantly higher chance to be infected than a random stranger. Because better dead than racist?
 
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thief183

Member
I can but I have a problem when people claim that hugging Chinese was stupid. By the time that was happening basically hugging anyone was stupid. Centering on Chinese people alone sounds unnecessary and ignorant.

Sandyman can't stand chinese people cause they are commy!!!!

I'm italian too and many other are in this forum, the situation is kinda strange here cause majority of the infected are from the same region (Lombardia) and it is not the one with the hugging stuff.
 

Sandyman

Neo Member
In a region in Italy where due to their business with china, they:
1, have a lot of chineese
2, in particular from Wuhan
3, they even know that Wuhan is the epicentre of the virus at that time
4, they go out of their way to hug foreigners they know have a very good probability to have come from Wuhan.

Yes. It is pretty stupid.
now, now. The Chinese are innocent, and they have no connection with the outbreak in Italy, dontchaknow?
 

Sandyman

Neo Member
I dunno. Why do people need others to spell out what should be basic cause and effect going on? hug a bunch of people from an infected region? you will probably get infected. Not that they would buy it anyway, because caution is only a few letters away from racism if you think about it wrong.
 

All Hail C-Webb

Hailing from the Chill-Web
Did a thread requiring some thought and insight really devolve in to this silliness?
The hug an Asian thing during a pandemic from Asia thing was pretty stupid, but it likely had a negligible impact on where Italy is right now.
It also has nothing to do with the poll.
 

Cato

Banned
I dunno. Why do people need others to spell out what should be basic cause and effect going on? hug a bunch of people from an infected region? you will probably get infected. Not that they would buy it anyway, because caution is only a few letters away from racism if you think about it wrong.

I think you are right, but I can't respond right now.
I need to rush down to the harbour and hug each and every passenger they are letting off the cruise-ship,
so I can virtusignal that I am not racist against cruise-ship-people.
 

Sandyman

Neo Member
Did a thread requiring some thought and insight really devolve in to this silliness?
The hug an Asian thing during a pandemic from Asia thing was pretty stupid, but it likely had a negligible impact on where Italy is right now.
It also has nothing to do with the poll.
my answer is yes. it is a complete failure and it will only get worse.
 

Cato

Banned
Did a thread requiring some thought and insight really devolve in to this silliness?
The hug an Asian thing during a pandemic from Asia thing was pretty stupid, but it likely had a negligible impact on where Italy is right now.
It also has nothing to do with the poll.

You would be right for most places in europe.
This particular region of Italy though is different. They have significant investment from Wuhan and Wuhan based companies
and a LOT of people that travel back and forth between this region and Wuhan.

These are not random Asians or Chineese. They very specifically have(had?) a significant number of chineese in particular from Wuhan.
 
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gamerMan

Member
Just because you shutdown the country, doesn't mean that people will stop dying. It depends on velocity or steepness of the curve before you shut down. If you are driving 85MPH and you hit the brakes, does the car stop right away? Only the case numbers each day will start to go down after awhile when you let off the gas. It won't be right away but it will level off and eventually fall. It's happening in Italy which means the shutdown is obviously working. Here is Italy's curve of Daily New Cases.
G2VYA71.jpg


People don't die as soon as they go to the hospital. Once people get sick, there is a huge queue of people that might take weeks to die. This is why you have to look at the resolved number as it means that patient has either survived or died. The bigger your queue of unresolved cases, the more people will die. For serious patients, roughly half will never come off a vent.

That's why you shutdown your country because if you don't you will get an exponential amount of people in your queue and not only will all of them die, all of people treating them will also die. Instead of going 85 MPH, you will keep increasing the speed of new cases at an exponential rate. It's like stepping on the gas and never letting up, which is what the USA was doing since end of January.

Even though the USA shut down, USA deaths per day will easily reach over 1000 deaths per day next week because of the people in the queue. By Easter, it will be doing around 2000 deaths per day. This is why you want to act quickly as possible because if you slow it down at the start, this shit would never take off. Every day you delay has almost a doubling effect. It's a lot easier to stop when you are going 5 MPH versus 100 MPH.

If you look at the USA numbers, they started off at a death rate of under 1% but as more cases are resolved, it has reached 1.6%. It will be the highest when the USA reaches its peak like Italy because the hospitals won't be able to support the case load.
 
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Jonsoncao

Banned
Even though hugging a Chinese is logically laughable and cringey.

This sandyman's post shows its cognitive ineptitude as well due to this dichotomous logic.

Based on the phylogeny tree on https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=country

Italy's pattern shows more of a chain and homogenous pattern (much less mutation than those strains in US), i.e., a more likely scenario would be A->B->C->etc, so it is like one Chinese or some international tourists brought the virus to Italy, it is slowly growing in local community until the outbreak in the epicenter Lombardy (not Florence).

If the burden of proof is partly showing "hugging a Chinese contributes majorly to the outbreak", I cannot see at least from the phylogeny.

Reference: https://europepmc.org/article/med/24916411
 

Sandyman

Neo Member
Even though hugging a Chinese is logically laughable and cringey.

This sandyman's post shows its cognitive ineptitude as well due to this dichotomous logic.

Based on the phylogeny tree on https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=country

Italy's pattern shows more of a chain and homogenous pattern (much less mutation than those strains in US), i.e., a more likely scenario would be A->B->C->etc, so it is like one Chinese or some international tourists brought the virus to Italy, it is slowly growing in local community until the outbreak in the epicenter Lombardy (not Florence).

If the burden of proof is partly showing "hugging a Chinese contributes majorly to the outbreak", I cannot see at least from the phylogeny.

Reference: https://europepmc.org/article/med/24916411
yes you very big brain boy. as we know, hugging people who could be sick doesn't get you sick. if you wanna show off your reddit smarts, that is fine. But no one is gonna give you ass pats for posting graphs and medical journals about how contact with people that could have a contagious disease doesn't make it likely.
 

Jonsoncao

Banned
yes you very big brain boy. as we know, hugging people who could be sick doesn't get you sick. if you wanna show off your reddit smarts, that is fine. But no one is gonna give you ass pats for posting graphs and medical journals about how contact with people that could have a contagious disease doesn't make it likely.

Your speculation on my motive further shows the limit of your cognitive ability.

Back to the question OP asked, looking at the curve, Italy definitely reached an inflection, most likely contributed to the lockdown.

The high death numbers are more likely the result of an overburdened health care.
 

Scopa

The Tribe Has Spoken
A friend of mine lives in a small town in Italy and if she has to go to the next (bigger) town for essentials or another important reason, she has to go to the police station and get a “day pass” that only lasts 24 hours. Pretty severe restrictions.

At least they are trying.
 
I can but I have a problem when people claim that hugging Chinese was stupid. By the time that was happening basically hugging anyone was stupid. Centering on Chinese people alone sounds unnecessary and ignorant.
Okay, here is where you are wrong.
Off course not every chinese person was a carrier.

It was STILL extremely stupid advising people to ESPECIALLY hug chinese when there is a known outbreak of a deadly virus from that country.

That doesn't mean it wasn't stupid to hug ANYBODY at that point of time.
On the contrary it doesn't mean it wasn't even MORE stupid to especially hug people from a county where the outbreak started and which was known to have the most cases.

If at that time someone pointed a gun at my head, and told me I needed to hug one of two people, one of them Chinese and one of them Italian, I'd take my chances with the Italian.
 

Scotty W

Member
There is an Italian guy who posted here a few months ago, asking to be roasted after losing a bet with a friend. Hope he is doing well.
 
So Italy went into official lockdown on March 9th. we are coming up on 3 weeks shortly. Italy just had its highest day of deaths yet at over 900. Cases are staying somewhat flat though the % of new cases has shown a decline. But they are still getting over 5K cases a day.

So has their lockdown been a failure? Did they do something differently then China, or does this make you trust China's numbers even less?

Or is everything working and this thread will be an epic backfire in a few days as Italians will finally get to see the fruits of their sacrafice?

What can the rest of the world learn from Italy? Do we have to keep the hope because if Italy fails then the rest of the world fails?


it's inaccurate but only who lives in Italy knows how the situation really works here ...

lockdown in wuhan was total and definitive, with people that really wasn't allowed to exit from the apartment.
Lockdown in italy was managed in the worst way possible, because it was gradual. End of Feb just the zone around patient zero house was in lockdown, then extended to other places (situation was getting worse), until march 9th when the first real city wide lockdown was implemented, was stil NOT Strickt as in china.


the only way to really avoid the spread of this virus was to put in lockdown before the virus arrival, or at lest after the first person tested positive. in order to really stop the spread.
 
Still with the hugging thing? It was not virtue signaling, I don't know why many are obessed with that here.

I'll post it again:

That movement was right, and it happend because people started insulting and spitting at random Chinese people in the streets, even though they haven't been to China in fucking years (or at all) and they had nothing to do with all of this. (we have some big chinese communities in 2/3 cities) They avoided even chinese restaraunts. It would be the same thing if you were to treat like shit the italians who live abroad but haven't been back home during the virus, only because of their nationality. (and I hear this is happening in Germany) Also it wasn't a chinese who brought the virus in Italy.
 

GamingKaiju

Member
The lockdown came to late sadly, Covid had built up lots momentum by the time the Italian authorities realised they had a big problem.

Italy employs a lot of Chinese workers to stitch the designer gear, then the hug a Chinese might have had something to do with it. In regards to the football match it is thought that’s where many Spaniards were infected from.

Couple of asymptotic people is all it takes.
 

nikolino840

Member
Isn't nikolino840 nikolino840 from italy?? How is it over there bud???
Yes 👍 i'm ok,but there's a mess out there

In regard to the topic i can say the lockdown was too late and they started only with schools,but are the adults that travel and going in bars clubs restaurants (with Kids also) then closed the bars ,but millions of people travel and go to work...finally 2 weeks ago they have closed workplaces (but all the bosses and leads are not happy :D )
 

darkinstinct

...lacks reading comprehension.
So Italy went into official lockdown on March 9th. we are coming up on 3 weeks shortly. Italy just had its highest day of deaths yet at over 900. Cases are staying somewhat flat though the % of new cases has shown a decline. But they are still getting over 5K cases a day.

So has their lockdown been a failure? Did they do something differently then China, or does this make you trust China's numbers even less?

Or is everything working and this thread will be an epic backfire in a few days as Italians will finally get to see the fruits of their sacrafice?

What can the rest of the world learn from Italy? Do we have to keep the hope because if Italy fails then the rest of the world fails?

Well, for the longest time (until this week) they still allowed most people to go to work and use public transportation. That was never going to work, those are the two main places for infections. If you want to get Chinese results, you have to implement Chinese measures (meaning 10 weeks of complete lockdown, no work for anyone but essential jobs, have everyone outside wear masks, deliver food to people instead of having them go to the supermarket). Anything else just prolongs the thing. Meaning Italy could be looking at months of measures, the US even years. We are at a crossroads. Either we accept harsh measures for everyone for a limited time and follow them - or we are fucked.
 

Tesseract

Banned
Still with the hugging thing? It was not virtue signaling, I don't know why many are obessed with that here.

I'll post it again:

That movement was right, and it happend because people started insulting and spitting at random Chinese people in the streets, even though they haven't been to China in fucking years (or at all) and they had nothing to do with all of this. (we have some big chinese communities in 2/3 cities) They avoided even chinese restaraunts. It would be the same thing if you were to treat like shit the italians who live abroad but haven't been back home during the virus, only because of their nationality. (and I hear this is happening in Germany) Also it wasn't a chinese who brought the virus in Italy.

still retarded, sorry
 

darkinstinct

...lacks reading comprehension.
Just because you shutdown the country, doesn't mean that people will stop dying. It depends on velocity or steepness of the curve before you shut down. If you are driving 85MPH and you hit the brakes, does the car stop right away? Only the case numbers each day will start to go down after awhile when you let off the gas. It won't be right away but it will level off and eventually fall. It's happening in Italy which means the shutdown is obviously working. Here is Italy's curve of Daily New Cases.
G2VYA71.jpg


People don't die as soon as they go to the hospital. Once people get sick, there is a huge queue of people that might take weeks to die. This is why you have to look at the resolved number as it means that patient has either survived or died. The bigger your queue of unresolved cases, the more people will die. For serious patients, roughly half will never come off a vent.

That's why you shutdown your country because if you don't you will get an exponential amount of people in your queue and not only will all of them die, all of people treating them will also die. Instead of going 85 MPH, you will keep increasing the speed of new cases at an exponential rate. It's like stepping on the gas and never letting up, which is what the USA was doing since end of January.

Even though the USA shut down, USA deaths per day will easily reach over 1000 deaths per day next week because of the people in the queue. By Easter, it will be doing around 2000 deaths per day. This is why you want to act quickly as possible because if you slow it down at the start, this shit would never take off. Every day you delay has almost a doubling effect. It's a lot easier to stop when you are going 5 MPH versus 100 MPH.

If you look at the USA numbers, they started off at a death rate of under 1% but as more cases are resolved, it has reached 1.6%. It will be the highest when the USA reaches its peak like Italy because the hospitals won't be able to support the case load.

That curve is slowing down because in Lombardy and the other mainly affected regions it is slowing down. In other regions it's just starting. For example in Campania, over the last four days 75, 98, 111, 144 new cases. A more realistic indicator is the number of ICU cases overall, and that number has been going up every day. By around 1.089 yesterday alone (if you count the new arrivals day over day plus the deaths of that day). When that number levels, that's when the peak is reached.
 

Teslerum

Member
Still with the hugging thing? It was not virtue signaling, I don't know why many are obessed with that here.

I'll post it again:

That movement was right, and it happend because people started insulting and spitting at random Chinese people in the streets, even though they haven't been to China in fucking years (or at all) and they had nothing to do with all of this. (we have some big chinese communities in 2/3 cities) They avoided even chinese restaraunts. It would be the same thing if you were to treat like shit the italians who live abroad but haven't been back home during the virus, only because of their nationality. (and I hear this is happening in Germany) Also it wasn't a chinese who brought the virus in Italy.

No, the movement wasn't right.

Going from spitting on people to outright hugging them, despite the danger, is absolute fucking nonsense, apart from being as fake a gesture as can be.

Call people out who are acting like assholes in this pandemic, absolutly. I have done the same already as well (different circumstances though). That is just human decency.

However, putting others (I'm not even talking about yourself) in danger on virtue of *LOOK AT HOW INCLOOOSIVE i AM* is not.
BE SMART FIRST AND FOREMOST.

And most of all be realistic. So, people are avoiding chinese restaurants. SO FUCKING WHAT. It's to be expected, its a normal human reaction. And in the end its meaningless due to the lockdowns happening all over the world. Every restaurant is fucked.
 
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Sandyman

Neo Member
T
No, the movement wasn't right.

Going from spitting on people to outright hugging them, despite the danger, is absolute fucking nonsense, apart from being as fake a gesture as can be.

Call people out who are acting like assholes in this pandemic, absolutly. I have done the same already as well (different circumstances though). That is just human decency.

However, putting others (I'm not even talking about yourself) in danger on virtue of *LOOK AT HOW INCLOOOSIVE i AM* is not.
BE SMART FIRST AND FOREMOST.

And most of all be realistic. So, people are avoiding chinese restaurants. SO FUCKING WHAT. It's to be expected, its a normal human reaction. And in the end its meaningless due to the lockdowns happening all over the world. Every restaurant is fucked.
no. Better be dead and make grandma dead than be called racist by people who will probably call you racist anyway.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
Still with the hugging thing? It was not virtue signaling, I don't know why many are obessed with that here.

I'll post it again:

That movement was right, and it happend because people started insulting and spitting at random Chinese people in the streets, even though they haven't been to China in fucking years (or at all) and they had nothing to do with all of this. (we have some big chinese communities in 2/3 cities) They avoided even chinese restaraunts. It would be the same thing if you were to treat like shit the italians who live abroad but haven't been back home during the virus, only because of their nationality. (and I hear this is happening in Germany) Also it wasn't a chinese who brought the virus in Italy.

Where is the evidence of Chinese mistreatment? In a world of 7 billion people I can find incidents of racism against any race at any time. Don't confuse what the media chooses to report to actual trends. The summer of the shark comes to mind, a summer when shark attacks were actually below average but the media reported on every shark attack for months because a pretty girl got attacked and it went viral and it got them views.

Nor is it racism to react differently based on probability differences, even if the underlying probabilities are still low.

Edit. And finally this quote is relevant from Dr. Fauci.

“Italy got hit very badly because they had a large number of importations from China by Chinese tourists,” Fauci said.

“Before they even knew what was going on, there was enough baseline people spreading that it essentially got out of hand, and it became difficult for them, as good as they are, and they’re very good, to be able to contain it in a way that is contact-tracing. It was more mitigation,” the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases continued.
 
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NeoIkaruGAF

Gold Member
People keep saying it’s too early to say, but as you said, the lockdown has been in effect for almost 3 weeks now. We’ve just had our peak of daily deaths, and one region (Veneto) increased testing during this last week so total positives have gone up a lot. But the Southern regions are still mostly unaccounted for. When the lockdown decree was leaked, a few hours before it came into effect, hundreds of people in the North rushed to train stations to return to their homes in the South before they could be lawfully forbidden from traveling. We still have to see if this has any effect on total cases. Going by logic, it totally should. A few days ago 40 people were found positive in a hospital in Teramo, right on Italy’s geographical middle line.

Schools should stay closed until April 3rd, but it’s unlikely they will really reopen on April 4th.

I’d say we still have a week to go until we really start to get the whole picture. If the numbers do decline steadily during next week, we’ll know the lockdown worked. If not... it’s gonna be rough.
 

Sandyman

Neo Member
Where is the evidence of Chinese mistreatment? In a world of 7 billion people I can find incidents of racism against any race at any time. Don't confuse what the media chooses to report to actual trends. The summer of the shark comes to mind, a summer when shark attacks were actually below average but the media reported on every shark attack for months because a pretty girl got attacked and it went viral and it got them views.

Nor is it racism to react differently based on probability differences, even if the underlying probabilities are still low.

Edit. And finally this quote is relevant from Dr. Fauci.

“Italy got hit very badly because they had a large number of importations from China by Chinese tourists,” Fauci said.

“Before they even knew what was going on, there was enough baseline people spreading that it essentially got out of hand, and it became difficult for them, as good as they are, and they’re very good, to be able to contain it in a way that is contact-tracing. It was more mitigation,” the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases continued.
But you see, act like some specific people on this thread and just believe the CCP. It actually wasn’t China that originated the disease, it was actually Italy, don’t ya know?

I wonder how many regretful Italians believe the CCP? Or have they learned the error of their ways and not willingly let themselves be attacked via politically charged bio-warfare disguised as an anti-hate campaign.
 

LMJ

Member
Leave it to a stupid progressive policy to not only potentially endangered tens of thousands of lives, but also come up with something that surprisingly backwards borderline, oh hell it is racist...

Hug a Chinese?
Firstly, I guarantee more than just the Chinese residents got asked for a hug, simply because of the characteristics of their skin and face. So way to focus on diversity by making people actively focus on the differences between us lol

Secondly, Hug the Chinese?!?

They're not a freaking Chihuahua lol what an incredibly insulting initiative.
 

Woffls

Member
We'll probably never know... road not travelled and all that. We can be sure that the numbers would have been much worse otherwise, so I guess it's fair to call it the only reasonable course of action, 90% of the world should be locked down at this point.
 

GHG

Member
Italians pack it up, americans know better than us haw it is going here. They want andwill decide for us, time to relax and let them take the lead.

Far too many people around the world know how this feels unfortunately.
 

oagboghi2

Member
Still with the hugging thing? It was not virtue signaling, I don't know why many are obessed with that here.

I'll post it again:

That movement was right, and it happend because people started insulting and spitting at random Chinese people in the streets, even though they haven't been to China in fucking years (or at all) and they had nothing to do with all of this. (we have some big chinese communities in 2/3 cities) They avoided even chinese restaraunts. It would be the same thing if you were to treat like shit the italians who live abroad but haven't been back home during the virus, only because of their nationality. (and I hear this is happening in Germany) Also it wasn't a chinese who brought the virus in Italy.
I don't believe this for a second. Italy and China agreed to the one belt one road economic pact in March of 2019. Italy has seen massive infrastructure projects and spending, fueled by China for the past year. Tons of Chinese goods, tons of Chinese workers, many from Wuhan flowing in and out of Italy and not one had the virus? Bullshit

And for the record, the "hug a Chinese" idea was always stupid.
 
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