We'll see how NX handheld does in its launch years. Perhaps the market space is already dead for a new handheld and 3DS is just going on pre-death momentum. Perhaps NX will take off however and do as well or near as well as the 3DS and in that case we'll have this question again when it comes time to replace the NX handheld. If it fails abysmally, yeah I could see Nintendo pulling out depending on how their other gaming ventures are going.
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Is the Next Nintendo Handheld the Last Stand for Dedicated Handheld Gaming?
- Thread starter Livingskeletons
- Start date
Offering multiple form factors that run the same software makes a ton of sense if Nintendo can market it right and the devices are good.
I can see the handheld market contract a bit more before stabilizing. I think there are at least 30 million people who want to continue playing pokemon, monster hunter, or other big handheld titles. The growth of mobile gaming can't continue exponentially forever either, so at some point things should stabilize.
Isn't the attractiveness of mobile that it is on your phone, which you already have, and is mindless so you do not have to pay attention to what is going on. Also mobile games are more pick up and play for a few minuets and set it back down. I do not see Nintendo getting into phones unless they think they can compete with Apple in Japan. I do not think they would try to sell outside of Japan unless it is a big hit. And if they try to make a gaming specific phone, then they may end up with a new Sony xperia play.
SolarPowered
Member
Nintendo handhelds are the foundation of Nintendo's hardware side now. If they fail then Nintendo's hardware division may as well be to them what the television division was to Sony. They might be able to generate flashes of lightning like the Wii and DS, but they just can't hold consumer interest in their home console hardware in the long term. If they don't have handhelds to fall back on their entire hardware side becomes nothing more than a burden they'll have to drop sooner or later.
JoeyJungle
Banned
I'm not sure, I think it will depend on what the NX is and how Nintendo's next handheld platform performs. If F2P dominates the handheld/mobile market, then it likely will be their last handheld until they see an opportunity in the market to bring back non-smartphone handheld gaming. If it their new platform performs well, they'll probably continue the cycle they've been on since the GB.
No, no, no
I'm getting fairly tired of reading threads with a black and white view on hardware sustainability. There are many ways, in various forms and degrees of success, to keep a dedicated hardware business healthy and running. There have also been no signs the last few years of mobile hurting 3DS software sales. If you run your business with an intent to stay in hardware then you can do that in a much smaller market than the 3DS'. But there are no signs that the NX won't do 3DS numbers either.
I'm getting fairly tired of reading threads with a black and white view on hardware sustainability. There are many ways, in various forms and degrees of success, to keep a dedicated hardware business healthy and running. There have also been no signs the last few years of mobile hurting 3DS software sales. If you run your business with an intent to stay in hardware then you can do that in a much smaller market than the 3DS'. But there are no signs that the NX won't do 3DS numbers either.
cropduster
Member
Nintendo will launch another handheld in some form, and if they find success, others will try to imitate. It may not be Sony, but someone would come in and try to compete.
I love handheld gaming and even some mobile. I would guess their next portable takes things from both. I'm just hoping Nintendo has some good ideas and strategies for their next system.
I love handheld gaming and even some mobile. I would guess their next portable takes things from both. I'm just hoping Nintendo has some good ideas and strategies for their next system.
MadOdorMachine
No additional functions
I think they could continue on, but they really need to design it for more than just games. A good chunk of the time my kids use the 3DS and Wii U gamepad for watching Netflix. They're also wanting to get into movies/animation, so coupled with their move to mobile they could have original content on Netflix as a type of advertisement to get people interested in their hardware. I think they could also leverage the art crowd if they wanted. At the very least, it could be an entry point for digital art. Of course designing for gaming should be the primary focus, but something like the Vita or Wii U gamepad is a good template physically imo. Just increase the screen resolution and put a lot more focus on the interface, software and overall user experience. I doubt they would ever make a phone (perhaps they could partner with someone though) but I think they could overtake the Apple iPod and iPad as market leader if they played their cards right.
As someone else mentioned, comparing 3DS to DS as a means to portray the 3DS as a failing device is flawed. DS was a solid device in a market hungry for mobile electronic entertainment before mobile phones had exploded in popularity (e.g. the iPhone 1 was released in 2007, 3 years after the DS released). Hence mass market games like Nintendogs and Brain Training, with accompanying celebrity television commercials. Casual users fled to their phones and the market has contracted, but despite that the 3DS has held steady (see the previous sales rates graph) on into 2016.
3DS isn't finished selling yet either. DS sold a large number of those 154 million units years after its software stream was cut, as PS2 did, as NES did, as any popular gaming device with a good library does. In fact, DS didn't officially cease production until 3 years ago, 2 years after the release of the 3DS:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=545996
Given the previous chart showing a steady sales rate throughout its lifetime, even a large sales bump this previous holiday season, the 3DS will continue to sell this year and likely a year or two down the line, especially after price cuts bring it down to impulse purchase territory and Nintendo throws more titles into "Nintendo Selects" (the $19.99 games).
The question is, then, "Are 3DS's sales sufficient to be considered "healthy", regardless of how many units DS sold?" I'd say they are. By the time the system is done selling it will be well over 60 million, if not into the 70s. Most companies would kill for those numbers and that much money (do the math). It also accomplished its sales in a market where mobile was already well and long entrenched, indicating interest from core users or some amount of mass market appeal or both.
Contraction isn't death. It's contraction. It can lead companies to re-evaluate their approaches, refocus on better serving their core users (or attempting to appeal to a new core demographic), and providing better products and services. PS4 is an example of where market contraction led to a company re-evaluating its approach.
I'd say Nintendoom is premature at this point. As another poster mentioned, assuming Nintendo provides a decent product with the NX, and assuming it has some sort of portable feature (e.g. base console unit + interoperable handheld unit), and that handheld dies a fiery horrible death, then Nintendoom. Until then, I don't think 3DS should be held up as a sign of the death of all things handheld gaming and the need to pay fealty to our smartphone overlords (especially considering the highly criticisable state of smartphone gaming).
Elven_Star
Member
I hope not. PSP was my favorite console, and Vita while not quite on the same level, has been great so far. Hopefully, Sony will surprise us with another handheld. They just need to focus their advertising campaign on showing people the same kind of experiences cannot be had on mobile, both for casual and hardcore gamers. I know this might sound like a simplistic point of view. I just don't see how people can NOT want a dedicated handheld gaming device, despite the smartphones.
whiterabbit
Member
They should call the next handheld the "New Game Boy." A proper return to form, and I'm tired of having regular and XL systems, it's so divisive.
Milly Osworth
Member
Nintendo needs kids to pick up their new handheld and I doubt that's going to happen with smartphones and tablets around. Nostalgic Nintendo fans might buy it and Pokemon fans, but outside of that I doubt it will do well.
When the 3DS came out the iPhone 4 was out and the first iPad. Those were not exactly great for games yet, but now...
When the 3DS came out the iPhone 4 was out and the first iPad. Those were not exactly great for games yet, but now...
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
More or less. I'm fully expecting NX handheld to sell even less than the 3DS. The 3DS has been doing well in Japan, but pretty mediocre performance elsewhere. Not to mention that even in Japan, there were years with huge releases like Pokemon and Animal Crossing and the system was still flat/down YoY.
Dedicated handhelds will continue to become even more niche.
Executive summary of this post: "LALALALA I'm not listening!" Yeah, there's no signs if you just completely ignore sales data outside of media create threads, sure.
Dedicated handhelds will continue to become even more niche.
Executive summary of this post: "LALALALA I'm not listening!" Yeah, there's no signs if you just completely ignore sales data outside of media create threads, sure.
Unfortunately, I think so. It's only going to decline more and more as years go on. It will continue to be somewhat attractive as long as they have Pokemon and Mario, but... I don't see it selling even 60% of what the 3DS did.
We live in a mobile world. kids are happy playing free iphone games on their parents old iphone. no need for a dedicated handheld console.
We live in a mobile world. kids are happy playing free iphone games on their parents old iphone. no need for a dedicated handheld console.
openrob
Member
The game boy did for gaming something that I don't think it will probably achieve again. It was basically like the walkman.
Saying that though, the iPod thrived in a market of MP3 players and mobile phones with ability to play music.
If Nintendo can do that, or at least transfer their gaming pedigree into a must have hand held device like a phone, then they are set.
That's an interesting point
Saying that though, the iPod thrived in a market of MP3 players and mobile phones with ability to play music.
If Nintendo can do that, or at least transfer their gaming pedigree into a must have hand held device like a phone, then they are set.
That's an interesting point
Steve La Flaga
Neo Member
I can't honestly imagine Sony jumping back in the handle arena after the way they unceremoniously dumped the Vita, so I'd say Nintendo will be the last bastion for dedicated handheld gaming.
With the DeNA partnership and more mobile games on the way, I can see Nintendo supporting cross play/porting of these game to the NX handheld in a hope to convert some smartphone only gamers into the dedicated hardware world.
I still think the chance of even 3DS numbers, outside of Japan, is unlikely but maybe they can find a way if the NX is something more than a Vita level Nintendo handheld.
With the DeNA partnership and more mobile games on the way, I can see Nintendo supporting cross play/porting of these game to the NX handheld in a hope to convert some smartphone only gamers into the dedicated hardware world.
I still think the chance of even 3DS numbers, outside of Japan, is unlikely but maybe they can find a way if the NX is something more than a Vita level Nintendo handheld.
Japan is still going to have a market for handhelds... Given the mobile landscape, I don't see how Sony or Nintendo adandon handhelds and avoid a large portion of the software ecosystem collapsing for gaming hardware...
Outside of Japan, Nintendo has more than enough reason to keep going. Sony is better off treating their efforts as niche or a wild shot. There's always going to be some audience for Japanese content.
Outside of Japan, Nintendo has more than enough reason to keep going. Sony is better off treating their efforts as niche or a wild shot. There's always going to be some audience for Japanese content.
Dedicated handhelds will still sell in Japan, so I doubt that the NX handheld will be the last one from Nintendo. However, the dedicated handheld market is shrinking rapidly and it's easy to envision the revenues falling to a third of their current levels within the next decade. So in the end, it's a bit of a moot question.
Stilton Disco
Member
It's definitely going to be a market share that shrinks further as time goes on, but the continued success of games that simply couldn't work on mobile on dedicated handhelds shows there is a sustainable business there too.
Whether Nintendo will want to keep putting out such hardware should it dip to GameCube or even WiiU sales numbers though, and be happy with some profit rather than the huge amounts it's been used too, is the real question.
Whether Nintendo will want to keep putting out such hardware should it dip to GameCube or even WiiU sales numbers though, and be happy with some profit rather than the huge amounts it's been used too, is the real question.
McGruber21
Member
As long as they make great handhelds, they can do that forever. Portable devices aren't going anywhere as a whole and games are unarguably better with buttons.
Undead Fantasy
Member
I wouldn't hold my breath for this.
AppleSeason
Member
I was going to say that maybe the future is a mobile device with classic physical controls or an adapter, sort of a "Nintendo phone", but... I think Sony already tried with a Playstation phone and did not go very well.
I usually agree with you, Neoxon, but come on now, putting a mainline Pokemon game on mobile would pretty much kill the two versions system they already have setup and the mobile market its not going to pay $40 per game, they'll have to heavily monetize the formula for it to work.
The games are still selling millions on Nintendo handhelds and will continue to do so, even if the NX Pokemon games arrive 2 years late, it will still sell hardware.
I am a firm believer that Nintendo needs to create an agnostic platform with multiple form factors. Allowing the Handheld and Console to share a platform, keeping future generations as part of their platform going forward and following the iphone/android model of dropping support for the oldest hardware as it becomes obsolete. Done correctly, and they can see the ultimate form of their potential, releasing all games to all form factors and allowing popular devices/form-factors to carry the platform despite lack luster sales of other devices/form-factors.
The above applied to 3DS and Wii U would have saw both devices as a single platform with all games being cross compatible, and even with their wildly unsuccessful Wii U and horrible 3DS launch, they would be looking at a 70 million user+ market to release games like Zelda U, Star Fox Zero, Mario Maker and Splatoon on, rather than the 12 million Wii U owners that exist today.
The above applied to 3DS and Wii U would have saw both devices as a single platform with all games being cross compatible, and even with their wildly unsuccessful Wii U and horrible 3DS launch, they would be looking at a 70 million user+ market to release games like Zelda U, Star Fox Zero, Mario Maker and Splatoon on, rather than the 12 million Wii U owners that exist today.
Jonneh3003
Banned
I don't think so, we said this about the 3DS too.
iMHO yes...
This space is being taken up by mobile phones where hardware is progressing rapidly year by year and phone upgrades are the call of the day. Nintendo would have to possibly look at a similar business model with much shorter hardware lifecycle which would be difficult....
Only makes sense for NX ecosystem to incorporate an app from the get go or at least eventually......
This space is being taken up by mobile phones where hardware is progressing rapidly year by year and phone upgrades are the call of the day. Nintendo would have to possibly look at a similar business model with much shorter hardware lifecycle which would be difficult....
Only makes sense for NX ecosystem to incorporate an app from the get go or at least eventually......
But if the people who are so sure handhelds are done are correct Pokemon only really has one place to move and thats mobile. That will just mean a complete overhaul on how they sell it yeah. No one is going to say consoles cause a lot of people think Nintendo has zero space there as well so all you have left is mobile ( and i guess PC). Mind you I dont want that to happen but I see where Neoxon is coming from.
Those N64 figures aren't after 5 years, they're after 8 (EOL). After 5 years N64 had sold 18.32m units in the Americas and was actually outpacing SNES launch aligned. It was a big success in that region, and 3DS is ahead of it and every other Nintendo home console except NES and Wii in the Americas.
This article seems very relevant:
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20...ownership_among_kids_is_hitting_nintendo_hard
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20...ownership_among_kids_is_hitting_nintendo_hard
TheSlySoul
Member
I think traditional handhelds are dead, but Nintendo still going to make a portable device for their games. Makes way too much money to abandon it.
Part of the reason why they ditched the Game Boy name was to go for something more gender-neutral.
In all likelihood, the next handheld will share whatever the NX Platform's actual name is.
Be prepared for the new New Game Boy then at some point.
I'm sorry you're tired of it, but more form factors is the direction we're taking rather than less.
Father_Brain
Banned
Which is true, but it doesn't mean that the Japanese dedicated market isn't continually contracting or that we're that far away from the point where the addressable market is too small to justify R&D on an NX successor.
I've always heard PC gaming will destroy console gaming and vice versa yet they both still coexist.
I feel there will always be a market for new and innovative portable gaming systems despite the smart phone market. Whether it's AR, VR, controls or just applying some of these in new and interesting ways could gain enough consumer momentum that a new product scratches the itch for gaming.
Most smart phones are a "one size fits all" product. While they can do many things they weren't designed specifically with just gamers in mind. There have been attempts to target market phones to gaming yet they lack the development, innovation and exclusivity where many gaming system manufacturers excel.
I'm sure we'll hit a point of convergence or a battle over the next thing. Perhaps some of the players will change and, like microsoft, transcend their market to be a known brand and competitor in the gaming market. Consumers can be play-style stubborn, brand loyal, hypocritical, fickle and caught in the hyberbole cult of the new. Only time will tell.
I feel there will always be a market for new and innovative portable gaming systems despite the smart phone market. Whether it's AR, VR, controls or just applying some of these in new and interesting ways could gain enough consumer momentum that a new product scratches the itch for gaming.
Most smart phones are a "one size fits all" product. While they can do many things they weren't designed specifically with just gamers in mind. There have been attempts to target market phones to gaming yet they lack the development, innovation and exclusivity where many gaming system manufacturers excel.
I'm sure we'll hit a point of convergence or a battle over the next thing. Perhaps some of the players will change and, like microsoft, transcend their market to be a known brand and competitor in the gaming market. Consumers can be play-style stubborn, brand loyal, hypocritical, fickle and caught in the hyberbole cult of the new. Only time will tell.
That's false, DS shipped another 7.5 million units worldwide after 3DS was introduced.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/historical_data/pdf/consolidated_sales_e1603.pdf
Narpas Sword0
Member
Game Boy Advance sold 80M units and it was replaced by the DS in only 3 years. It had a good year or two even after the DS came out, but that just makes 3DS sales look even worse.
In 2004-2005 they had TWO handhelds that were both doing well, plus the PSP was doing really well also (and ultimately sold 80M units itself).
So I don't know why we are patting Nintendo on the back for 60M sales in 5 years with essentially no competition, from inside or outside.
The success of any future handheld from anyone is definitely a giant question mark.
In 2004-2005 they had TWO handhelds that were both doing well, plus the PSP was doing really well also (and ultimately sold 80M units itself).
So I don't know why we are patting Nintendo on the back for 60M sales in 5 years with essentially no competition, from inside or outside.
The success of any future handheld from anyone is definitely a giant question mark.
Father_Brain
Banned
But 3DS sales haven't "held steady" at all. They peaked in 2012 and have been in almost continuous decline ever since.
You keep citing that graph, but cumulative week-by-week sales paint a very selective picture. Full-year and TTM sales tell the full story.
I Wanna Be The Guy
U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!
Yes, and it's why I'm banking so heavily and praying so much for NX to be a massive success despite the fact The 3DS is far and away the worst gaming system I've ever owned. I have to root for Nintendo going forward because I have no other options.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
If it has the modern trappings we all think hope it will it should do fine with the Nintendo crowd and maybe even bring in some of the Sony crowd. Plus it'll be the only game in town with buttons.
I would think the whole logic behind thinking handheld market is shrinking is wrong...
In 2016-17, a new Nintendo portable is way more than a "Handheld" in the way people are thinking about it. It's a legit Nintendo console that can replace their home console. It's not only defined by its gaming on the go functionality.
We'll have to realize some things at some point. The things a device like that can do in 2016 are really in an other league.
I was thinking about that and here is a fun little perspective. Let's think about something, for the sake of it. Let's see what kind of original Zelda game would be doable on each portable generation for Nintendo.
_On GBA, you could have a classic snes zelda game, basically (minus the resolution)
_On NDS, you could have a top down 3D zelda game, with simple graphics (Or a N64 level of 3D zelda)
_On 3DS you could have had a Wii/GC level of 3D zelda game, with cheaper graphics (like Xenoblade or monster Hunter) but they didn't do it.
_On NX ?? Let's contemplate for 2 seconds the gap. On NX, even with the weakest they could go with it (let's say 200 gflop ?), they could actually make an original Zelda, that would be more advanced technologically than any Zelda ever released to that day. That means the next Nintendo portable will be capable of receiving the most advanced yet episode of .. Metroid, FZero, Zelda...
I mean, the point of that thinking is to show that ... It's really not only about a "portable platform" anymore. It's really not about competing with smartphones etc.. We're talking about a device that can host the best Nintendo has to offer (except for a new home console of course)
In 2016-17, a new Nintendo portable is way more than a "Handheld" in the way people are thinking about it. It's a legit Nintendo console that can replace their home console. It's not only defined by its gaming on the go functionality.
We'll have to realize some things at some point. The things a device like that can do in 2016 are really in an other league.
I was thinking about that and here is a fun little perspective. Let's think about something, for the sake of it. Let's see what kind of original Zelda game would be doable on each portable generation for Nintendo.
_On GBA, you could have a classic snes zelda game, basically (minus the resolution)
_On NDS, you could have a top down 3D zelda game, with simple graphics (Or a N64 level of 3D zelda)
_On 3DS you could have had a Wii/GC level of 3D zelda game, with cheaper graphics (like Xenoblade or monster Hunter) but they didn't do it.
_On NX ?? Let's contemplate for 2 seconds the gap. On NX, even with the weakest they could go with it (let's say 200 gflop ?), they could actually make an original Zelda, that would be more advanced technologically than any Zelda ever released to that day. That means the next Nintendo portable will be capable of receiving the most advanced yet episode of .. Metroid, FZero, Zelda...
I mean, the point of that thinking is to show that ... It's really not only about a "portable platform" anymore. It's really not about competing with smartphones etc.. We're talking about a device that can host the best Nintendo has to offer (except for a new home console of course)
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