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[Simbabbad]

If Sony gets out of the handheld market and there are software bridges between the home and portable NX devices, then the next Nintendo handheld (and therefore home console) starts with a pretty healthy situation. Handheld monopoly would offer an incredibly varied library.

It could be argued the decrease caused by smartphones is a one time thing: all the people that didn't care all that much about gaming switched to smartphones, but what is still there are dedicated gamers, and now they have just one handheld to own. Nintendo lost a chunk of the kid market because of kids with smartphones, but they can gain adults if Sony gets out of handhelds.

Since portable NX will have solved the resolution and power issues of past systems and have a monopoly, it does have the potential to be a healthy system.

 

[Otakumegane]

Plz no second screen.

1 big ish screen with a capability for touch. The one thing I liked about the Vita.

 

[Celine]

Not to mention that even in Japan, there were years with huge releases like Pokemon and Animal Crossing and the system was still flat/down YoY.

3DS was a very front loaded system.
A system selling 4-5 million units a year is a rare ocurrence in the japanese market and cannot be expected as the norm.
3DS sales in Japan were front-loaded due to Nintendo cutting the price early one.
That meant it reached saturation more quickly.

Media Create

2011:
3DS - 4.282.142 <- Mario Kart 7, Super Mario 3D Land, Mosnter Hunter 3G

2012:
3DS - 5.497.737 <- Animal Crossing NL

2013:
3DS - 4.882.040 <- Pokemon X/Y, Monster Hunter 4

2014:
3DS - 3.176.525 <- Yokai Watch 2

2015:
3DS - 2.347.554

 

[MacTag]

But 3DS sales haven't "held steady" at all. They peaked in 2012 and have been in almost continuous decline ever since.

You keep citing that graph, but cumulative week-by-week sales paint a very selective picture. Full-year and TTM sales tell the full story.

3DS peaked in it's 3rd FY, which really isn't that unusual for platforms in general. It is a bit earlier than GBA or DS though, which both peaked in their 5th FY. On the other hand Wii also peaked in it's 3rd FY, GC in it's 2nd FY and Wii U in it's 1st FY!

I'd agree 3DS is looking more front loaded than we're used to seeing but that also seems like a trend we're seeing with all dedicated game platforms. This isn't an issue limited to just Nintendo or even just handhelds either. PS4 and Xbox One are looking like they'll also end up more frontloaded than all their predecessors going back.

 

[chrominance]

Yes, I expect it to be the last stand. That doesn't mean 100% it'll be the last handheld ever, but I think the biggest thing keeping handhelds alive is that there are certain games that don't yet work on smartphones due to controls (action games) or business issues (no one wants to pay for a meaty RPG on phones). If someone figures those two things out or works around them (i.e. new wave of previously handheld-only JRPGs on consoles), handhelds will be dead in Japan, and they're the last holdout.

 

[Neoxon]

As long as the NX Handheld gets Pokémon, Monster Hunter, & Yokai Watch in a timely manner, it'll sell in Japan.

 

[Tyraniboah]

I'm hoping they keep it up, but if not then I would be content with them going all in on smart devices. I'll be a sucker and buy up stuff like fire emblem iOS/android remakes and new Pokemon releases. Give me a good Bluetooth controller that can hold my phone and I'll get some of their other stuff too.

I'd love to see them continue with dedicated handhelds but I worry that it won't be viable after another five years or so. Smart devices are affordable and everyone has access to them now. The hardware is producing rather good games now and, with a Bluetooth controller, there really aren't any other major restrictions on using one to play games anymore. I play most of square's rereleases on my iPhone and I'd very well do the same were Nintendo to start doing those.

 

[Aesnath]

Boy, I hope not. Nintendo's handheld output is still a major part of my gaming diet. I get why the market is shrinking, and I don't think they can fix that. However, it still seems like there are many who are interested in this type of device, so, hopefully they can find a way to keep it profitable/worth doing.

 

[DrROBschiz]

Unless Sony announces another contender (they wont)

Yeah... Nintendo will be the only one offering a dedicated handheld

 

[m.i.s.]

I can see the handheld market contract a bit more before stabilizing. I think there are at least 30 million people who want to continue playing pokemon, monster hunter, or other big handheld titles. The growth of mobile gaming can't continue exponentially forever either, so at some point things should stabilize.

Those same titles will also be playable on a console on a big screen TV and a separate console controller. This could deprecate the position of the handheld market even further.

 

[4Tran]

I would think the whole logic behind thinking handheld market is shrinking is wrong...

In 2016-17, a new Nintendo portable is way more than a "Handheld" in the way people are thinking about it. It's a legit Nintendo console that can replace their home console. It's not only defined by its gaming on the go functionality.

If the handheld and console libraries are interchangeable, you won't see any increase in sales. Instead, there will be people satisfied with the one and not bother buying the other. In effect, this means that the handheld and console will cannibalize each other's sales. There is no reasonable way to expect the NX handheld to perform nearly as well as the 3DS did.

 

[Neoxon]

Those same titles will also be playable on a console on a big screen TV and a separate console controller. This could deprecate the position of the handheld market even further.

That's if Nintendo goes the shared platform route. If not, Pokémon will likely remain exclusive to the handheld.

 

[Mediking]

Nintendo should be trying to grab as many Japanese developers who liked developing on Sony handhelds as possible. I love my Vita but I got a feeling it will be the last Sony handheld for quite a while.

 

[jmdajr]

Maybe in the mainstream. I think they will never really go away.

 

[bomblord1]

They really need a strong competitor to bring the market back into a healthy place IMO

 

[2+2=5]

Yes, but sadly it's a lost battle imo especially if NX will be the only handheld in the market, the NX will probably be the last dedicated handheld.

 

[orioto]

If the handheld and console libraries are interchangeable, you won't see any increase in sales. Instead, there will be people satisfied with the one and not bother buying the other. In effect, this means that the handheld and console will cannibalize each other's sales. There is no reasonable way to expect the NX handheld to perform nearly as well as the 3DS did.

It's not this way. It's the other way actually. People playing on portable don't need the home system. The home system doesn't compete with the portable one.

 

[Neoxon]

Maybe in the mainstream. I think they will never really go away.

Pokémon alone is capable of keeping Nintendo handhelds in the public eye in the West.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

They really need a strong competitor to bring the market back into a healthy place IMO

Who could act as a competitor to Nintendo at this point? Sony is unfortunately probably done with the handheld market, so all that's left are the niche machines that are usually just around for emulation.

 

[m.i.s.]

That's if Nintendo goes the shared platform route. If not, Pokémon will likely remain exclusive to the handheld.

NCL have been emphatic on the "shared library" route - otherwise it's software droughts left, right and centre.

Shared library route is the only viable way NCL can build an acceptable eco-system.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

IMO, 'dedicated' probably. I think that to survive in a post-iPad world you have to adapt. A dedicated handheld with a less than 1080p screen that only does gaming well is a terrible value versus a $200 iPad or Android tablet. I doubt the NX is going to get the trendiest games quick nor is it going to be able to be good at multimedia, going by Nintendo's track history. The next big handheld will have to adapt to the new OS landscape, not exist in spite of it and try to shape people's desires by merely existing.

 

[KillerMan91]

3DS peaked in it's 3rd FY, which really isn't that unusual for platforms in general. It is a bit earlier than GBA or DS though, which both peaked in their 5th FY. On the other hand Wii also peaked in it's 3rd FY, GC in it's 2nd FY and Wii U in it's 1st FY!

I'd agree 3DS is looking more front loaded than we're used to seeing but that also seems like a trend we're seeing with all dedicated game platforms. This isn't an issue limited to just Nintendo or even just handhelds either. PS4 and Xbox One are looking like they'll also end up more frontloaded than all their predecessors going back.

This is just you speculating though. There is absolutely no data for this yet. PS4 is actually slightly up yoy in both Japan and US so far this year.

 

[Neoxon]

NCL have been emphatic on the "shared library" route - otherwise it's software droughts left, right and centre.

Shared library route is the only viable way NCL can build an acceptable eco-system.

And I completely agree with you. I'm just not taking it as a 110% certainty right now unless we get a reliable leak mentioning it.

 

[MacTag]

Those same titles will also be playable on a console on a big screen TV and a separate console controller. This could deprecate the position of the handheld market even further.

It could but it could also push sales for those who want to add more ways to play their content. Western console gamers might be more amenable to picking up a Nintendo handheld if they can already play all their console games scaled to it rather than having to buy a new unique library for it alone. And the reverse could happen in Japan where handheld gamers might grab an extra console to play their games on when at home.

Even if device sales shrink in one direction overall though, addressable userbase could still increase with a shared library.

 

[michaelius]

Those same titles will also be playable on a console on a big screen TV and a separate console controller. This could deprecate the position of the handheld market even further.

Yes a lot of current 3DS owners bought it because Nintendo forced them to do it the with exclusives - if those titles are on big screen they will more likely choose stationary console and gaming on tv.

You can look for any Vita vs 3DS discussions here where people argued that PS3/PSV multiplatforms don't count because they would rather play them on big screen so it's obvious to me that those people weren't interested in handheld form factor but rather needed to be forced to buy one.

 

[Dreamwriter]

Who could act as a competitor to Nintendo at this point? Sony is unfortunately probably done with the handheld market, so all that's left are the niche machines that are usually just around for emulation.

Microsoft could have a go - they make cell phones and powerful tablet computers, and recently created a computer portable enough to be worn in an AR headset yet powerful enough for the AR. In fact, I'd consider HoloLens a portable gaming machine.

 

[LifeBrandRobot]

A major reason handheld is dying is because there are no great options right now. You have the Vita which did not focus on handheld gaming and the 3DS which is a toy and incredibly archaic. If Nintendo can release a handheld with updated tech then I'm confident that we will see handheld gaming get stronger. It will have to, at the very least, match the tech of the 4 year old Vita though.

 

[JordanN]

Vita was the last stand IMO.

Just like how PSP represented the future of 3DS, Vita is a preview of what Nintendo does next.

Major screw ups aside, it remains an example of what a HD handheld on the go will perform on the market.

 

[Oersted]

Vita was the last stand IMO.

Just like how PSP represented the future of 3DS, Vita is a preview of what Nintendo does next.

Major screw ups aside, it remains an example of what a HD handheld on the go will perform on the market.

The Nintendo handheld console will have far more compelling software than Vita.

 

[Neoxon]

The Nintendo handheld console will have far more compelling software.

This, not to mention that Nintendo likely won't require proprietary memory cards.

 

[Father_Brain]

3DS peaked in it's 3rd FY, which really isn't that unusual for platforms in general. It is a bit earlier than GBA or DS though, which both peaked in their 5th FY. On the other hand Wii also peaked in it's 3rd FY, GC in it's 2nd FY and Wii U in it's 1st FY!

I'd agree 3DS is looking more front loaded than we're used to seeing but that also seems like a trend we're seeing with all dedicated game platforms. This isn't an issue limited to just Nintendo or even just handhelds either. PS4 and Xbox One are looking like they'll also end up more frontloaded than all their predecessors going back.

That may be technically true, but you have to keep in mind that 3DS launched at the very end of the FY. TTM sales peaked in late 2012, less than two years after launch and in only its second holiday on the market.

Wii did peak on the early side compared to GBA or DS, but only after its third holiday season and at a much higher level than 3DS or (obviously) Wii U did.

 

[TheFatMan]

I hope not, I just picked up a New 3DS XL so I can play there great library of games.

 

[1st Course]

As long as the JPN market remain viable they will continue to make them I think.

 

[4Tran]

It's not this way. It's the other way actually. People playing on portable don't need the home system. The home system doesn't compete with the portable one.

Sure it does. A shared library is mostly just going to appeal to owners of both a Wii U and a 3DS. This group can will either buy both the handheld and the console, or buy just the handheld, or just the console. Before, there was a big incentive to get both, but if there are no games differentiating the two, it will be easy to forgo one of them. Not everyone likes playing games on a handheld; especially outside of Japan, so the handheld sales are going to suffer as a consequence.

That may be technically true, but you have to keep in mind that 3DS launched at the very end of the FY. TTM sales peaked in late 2012, less than two years after launch and in only its second holiday on the market.

Wii did peak on the early side compared to GBA or DS, but in its third holiday season and at a much higher level than 3DS or (obviously) Wii U did.

Another way to put it is that the 3DS shipped more in its first 8 quarters than it did in it's next 13. This is not the sign of a healthy market.

 

[JordanN]

The Nintendo handheld console will have far more compelling software.

I doubt it. In fact, I think it's going to get worse.

With 3DS, we saw the handheld have an incredibly slow start with third parties even cancelling some games in the beginning. This was despite them coming off the hugely successful DS and only having PS2 power to work with.

Nintendo's next handheld having something like Vita's PS3 power means the games are going to take even longer to make in addition to requiring more profit returns. That means, selling $60 games which is incredibly tough for a handheld.

 

[Neoxon]

I doubt it. In fact, I think it's going to get worse.

With 3DS, we saw the handheld have an incredibly slow start with third parties even cancelling some games in the beginning. This was a handheld with PS2 power.

Nintendo's next handheld having something like Vita's PS3 power means the games are going to take even longer to make in addition to requiring more profit returns. That means, selling $60 games which is incredibly tough for a handheld.

But if Nintendo goes the shared library route, software droughts would be few & far between. Plus not every game has to cost $60 (hell, Nintendo already applied variable pricing to some of their games).

 

[Scrawnton]

Game Boy Advance sold 80M units and it was replaced by the DS in only 3 years. It had a good year or two even after the DS came out, but that just makes 3DS sales look even worse.

In 2004-2005 they had TWO handhelds that were both doing well, plus the PSP was doing really well also (and ultimately sold 80M units itself).

So I don't know why we are patting Nintendo on the back for 60M sales in 5 years with essentially no competition, from inside or outside.

The success of any future handheld from anyone is definitely a giant question mark.

Seriously? There was so much competition from mobile that people that PS4 and X1 and all of traditional gaming was going to lose out to it.

Mobile gaming is huge and swept the industry, the fact that 3DS sold 60million going against that juggernaught is amazing.

 

[KojiKnight]

Nintendo's next handheld having something like Vita's PS3 power means the games are going to take even longer to make in addition to requiring more profit returns. That means, selling $60 games which is incredibly tough for a handheld.

That Sony marketing got you good didn't it...

 

[MacTag]

That may be technically true, but you have to keep in mind that 3DS launched at the very end of the FY. TTM sales peaked in late 2012, less than two years after launch and in only its second holiday on the market.

Wii did peak on the early side compared to GBA or DS, but only after its third holiday season and at a much higher level than 3DS or (obviously) Wii U did.

Obviously comparisons won't be perfect due to launch staggering but aligning by calendar rather than fiscal year seems to be less accurate to real trends imo. 3DS probably wouldn't have sold that much differently had it launched holiday 2010 (as was likely the original plan) yet it then would've also technically peaked in it's 3rd holiday like Wii. Same for Wii had it launched in spring 2007 instead, it still most likely would've peaked holiday 2009. If you align by FY then 3DS is actually closer in cycle to GC, DS, Wii and Wii U than if you align by CY.

 

[JordanN]

But if Nintendo goes the shared library route, software droughts would be few & far between. Plus not every game has to cost $60 (hell, Nintendo already applied variable pricing to some of their games).

There where shared games with WiiU/3DS and even Vita/PS3. I think that still creates a huge problem as you now have games that are clearly ported up or ported down.

 

[oni-link]

I just want a handheld PC that connects to my Steam account in the form factor of a Vita with good enough specs to play indie games and maybe games from half a decade ago decently

 

[Neoxon]

There where shared games with WiiU/3DS and even Vita/PS3. I think that still creates a huge problem as you now have games that are clearly ported up or ported down.

But not on an architectural level. For Smash 4, Sakurai & Bandai Namco basically had to make two of the same game. By making the two devices "like brothers" (as Iwata said), it allows Nintendo to only make one Smash or one Mario Kart with tons of DLC. As a result, Nintendo can use the resources that would have been dedicated towards making two of the same franchise for diversifying their line-up.

 

[RM8]

A major reason handheld is dying is because there are no great options right now. You have the Vita which did not focus on handheld gaming and the 3DS which is a toy and incredibly archaic. If Nintendo can release a handheld with updated tech then I'm confident that we will see handheld gaming get stronger. It will have to, at the very least, match the tech of the 4 year old Vita though.

Yes, if there's something we can be sure about when it comes to the handheld market, is that the audience wants powerful devices :x

 

[Father_Brain]

That may be technically true, but you have to keep in mind that 3DS launched at the very end of the FY. TTM sales peaked in late 2012, less than two years after launch and in only its second holiday on the market.

Wii did peak on the early side compared to GBA or DS, but only after its third holiday season and at a much higher level than 3DS or (obviously) Wii U did.

Correction to the above: reviewing jvm's sales graphs, 3DS TTM sales actually peaked in the quarter ending September 2012, a mere 18 months after launch and even before its second holiday on the market. That's even worse.

Obviously comparisons won't be perfect due to launch staggering but aligning by calendar rather than fiscal year seems to be less accurate to real trends imo. 3DS probably wouldn't have sold that much differently had it launched holiday 2010 (as was likely the original plan) yet it then would've also technically peaked in it's 3rd holiday like Wii. Same for Wii had it launched in spring 2007 instead, it still most likely would've peaked holiday 2009. If you align by FY then 3DS is actually closer in cycle to GC, DS, Wii and Wii U than if you align by CY.

Not sure if you're not clear on what TTM is, but it's the total of all units sold/shipped in the previous 12 months, so accounting for seasonal variations is built in. It's actually even better than total FY numbers at tracking overall sales trends.

And see my correction above; 3DS actually peaked even earlier than I'd thought it did.

 

[Scrawnton]

Yes, if there's something we can be sure about when it comes to the handheld market, is that the audience wants powerful devices :x

I am perfectly fine with 3DS' graphical quality, my only issue with the system is screen resolution; still, it is my most favorite gaming platform ever.

 

[mrklaw]

people don't actually phone people on phones these days - its all apps, internet and IM. So why not just add an android layer in your 4DS so the kids can still use the apps and keep in touch with mum and their friends, but also play their games?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

people don't actually phone people on phones these days - its all apps, internet and IM. So why not just add an android layer in your 4DS so the kids can still use the apps and keep in touch with mum and their friends, but also play their games?

Nintendo wouldn't even license DVD/BluRay playback because of the licensing. Mainstream Android devices require a few licenses and agreements with many patent carriers, not just one. Nintendo is never going for that, and I think that's whats going to really hurt their next handheld a lot.

 

[MacTag]

Correction to the above: reviewing jvm's sales graphs, 3DS TTM sales actually peaked in the quarter ending September 2012, a mere 18 months after launch and even before its second holiday on the market. That's even worse.

Not sure if you're not clear on what TTM is, but it's the total of all units sold/shipped in the previous 12 months, so accounting for seasonal variations is built in. It's actually even better than total FY numbers at tracking overall sales trends.

And see my correction above; 3DS actually peaked even earlier than I'd thought it did.

TTM would be better metric then. Can you find TTM for GBA, GC, DS, Wii and Wii U to give us a better comparison with Nintendo's historical track record?

Also peaking in the quarter ending 09/30/12 would technically be 19 months from launch (02/26/11) or it's 7th quarter cycle. Still super early yes.

 

[Galava]

people don't actually phone people on phones these days - its all apps, internet and IM. So why not just add an android layer in your 4DS so the kids can still use the apps and keep in touch with mum and their friends, but also play their games?

I think the next handheld will feature something like that. Being able to run the same Nintendo apps/games that are already on android would be a huge win. The handheld would need to have one 4"+ HD touch-screen at least for this. Also add the ability to stream to the handheld from the home-console either LAN or internet and winx2.

An LTE version would be cool for this but not happening.

 

[Graphics Horse]

people don't actually phone people on phones these days - its all apps, internet and IM. So why not just add an android layer in your 4DS so the kids can still use the apps and keep in touch with mum and their friends, but also play their games?

I can see them launching their own curated Android store, it's sure as hell not going to support bootleg emulators.
Sell a stand alone low spec tablet that connects to a high spec system-in-controller to form an integrated megazord handheld.