Olive Town &
Bravely Default 2 have entered the Top 50 on Amazon; the Switch version of
Disgaea 6 enters the Top 100(the PS4 version is at #124)
- more than a month until
Olive Town &
Bravely 2 launch
- games like
Olive Town usually don't have high pre-orders so being this high up at this point bodes really well for the launch
- for
Disgaea 6, I don't anticipate that retailers will order more than
50K copies across the PS4/NSW for launch;
Overall
Disgaea 6 will be the first real test about what type of performance we can expect for third parties.
Disgaea 5 managed only
40K across the PS4/Switch in Japan, so it's a low bar to clear; the franchise has always been a niche in Japan so if Disgaea 6 manages to surpass
100K, it should be deemed as a huge success. In terms of historical performance, the debut remains the best-selling game in the franchise managing
152K all the way back in 2003. A lot will depend on WoM for this game, as the initial shipment as mentioned won't be very big.
I'm confident in saying that
Olive Town will be
Marvelous biggest launch when combining physical + digital, the game is trending very well in terms of pre-orders and will benefit massively from the audience
New Horizon has brought to the Switch in the past year.
- [PSV] Kan Colle Kai (2015) - 137.201
- [3DS] Harvest Moon: Linking the New World (2014) - 116.922
- [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns (2016) - 110.597
The reception will be key to its long-term performance, but as I've said before I anticipate it will be their break-out hit for the franchise both in Japan and abroad. After seeing how
Momotaro performed surpassing
1 million is certainly possible.
Marvelous historically doesn't have any franchise that has surpassed
500K in Japan, so this year
Rune Factory 5, Olive Town, and
Sakuna have a great chance to occupy the Top 3 best selling games in Japan by them. Overall their position in the market will be greatly elevated by the end of the year, making them one of the top 3rd Party publishers - especially if
Sega, Bandai & Square continue to flounder around aimlessly.
Marvelous Top 15
- [DS] Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness - 304.660
- [3DS] Harvest Moon: A New Beginning - 264.042
- [3DS] Harvest Moon: Linking the New World - 259.111
- [3DS/NSW] Rune Factory 4 - 245.857
- [DS] Harvest Moon: Twin Villages - 212.870
- [PSV/PS4/NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star - 198.804
- [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns - 196.088
- [PSV] Kan Colle Kai - 190.568
- [PS4/PSV/NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star Link - 177.279
- [PSV] Senran Kagura Shinovi Versus - 158.270
- [NSW/PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin - 157.900 NEW
- [3DS] Harvest Moon: Shining Sun and Friends - 155.065
- [PSP] Fate/Extra - 147.911
- [PSP] Fate/Extra CCC - 147.911
- [NSW] Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town - 146.363
- 3DS - 5
- NSW - 5
- PSV - 4
- PS4 - 3
- DS - 2
In terms of
Sakuna, physical sales this week will make it the 10th best selling game for
Marvelous of all time.
Bravely Default 2 will have a more difficult task as the debut actually managed very decent sales of
382K, considering
Square has constantly understocked similar games on the Switch - I'm hopeful that they finally stop making the same mistake over and over again. As this is a JRPG the launch will be key, so selling more than the debut during its launch week will give us a good idea of the lifetime sales we can expect.
Bravely Default debuted with
144K sales on the 3DS back in 2012