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June 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
metalslimer
Member
I think the impact from The Last of US is probably being overestimated. I'm sure the game probably did well, but do people really think this late in the gen a single game can cause big surge? I mean I'm sure there were some people who went out and bought the system for it, but how many are we talking about here?
Since Animal Crossing is even much higher than Pokédex 3D Pro, I'd say 150k could be a reasonable guess too.
Now, the most important question: could we extrapolate total Animal Crossing sales from the digital sales? Fire Emblem is a special case, it can't be considered as common...let's see Luigi's Mansion 2
365k in its first two weeks
50k digital copies from March 24th to April 15th
A 13.7% ratio, that is actually much nearer to 10%, since retail sales from April 7th to 14th aren't counted
A 10% for Animal Crossing, since digital sales at 100k as lowest limit would mean 1,000,000 units sold...and that's impossible. Plus, AC is a title that has been promoted as perfect for being downloaded; then, the ratio will be higher by default. A 15% ratio would mean 666k, a 20% ratio 500k...it's going to be mighty interesting.
CorporateClown
Member
[360] 145K
[3DS] 192K
[PS3] 150K
[PSV] 19K
[WIU] 37K
[3DS] 192K
[PS3] 150K
[PSV] 19K
[WIU] 37K
Well not the impact that Animal Crossing may have had, but it is a pretty significant release. I imagine it would make the PS3 sell 30-45K that week (assuming that the PS3 would sell 20K per week which is roughly what it did in May)
Me, too. Was thinking about predictions, and recalled that there was discussion last NPD thread of whether 360 or 3DS would be top this month. Tried to recall why that was a thing last month, when AC and the 3DSXL LE bundle hit me. :lol
PreyingShark
Member
Oh, okay. That's likely shipped but I did notice 3DS's going "WHEEEE!" at my local Target so it's believable.
[3DS] 235K
[360] 175K
[PS3] 150K
[WIU] 37K
[PSV] 20K
Nintendo has their own point-of-sale tracking system in the U.S. that was originally started for warranty purposes. It's why the system barcode is scanned when the hardware is purchased, which means Nintendo has real-time access to U.S. retail sales. Therefore it's more likely to mean actual sell-through rather than shipped, I'd think.
[360] 175K
[PS3] 150K
[WIU] 37K
[PSV] 20K
Nintendo has their own point-of-sale tracking system in the U.S. that was originally started for warranty purposes. It's why the system barcode is scanned when the hardware is purchased, which means Nintendo has real-time access to U.S. retail sales. Therefore it's more likely to mean actual sell-through rather than shipped, I'd think.
Randolph Freelander
Member
I predict 1 PS3. I know for certain one was purchased during the June NPD period, because I bought it. As I didn't see anyone else buying one at the same time, it would be premature to say there were 2 or more.
Along those same lines, mark me down for 0 for all other systems being tracked.
I am so going to win this contest. Pachter: take notes.
Along those same lines, mark me down for 0 for all other systems being tracked.
I am so going to win this contest. Pachter: take notes.
Did you buy it at a retailer tracked by NPD? If not, we can safely not assume even 1 sale for June.
anexanhume
Member
I've seen quite a few people across reddit and twitter saying they're buying a PS3 for it. For every person I see saying it, there's X that I don't see, or aren't vocalizing it, but doing the same. The fact is that the successor to the xbox 360 has been announced, it has essentially no more exclusives coming out this year, and you have many people who were potentially waiting for the E model after seeing it (and I don't think it had any sort of wide retail availability most of June).
Exterminieren
Banned
[3DS] 225K
[360] 160K
[PS3] 145K
[WIU] 40K
[PSV] 25K
[360] 160K
[PS3] 145K
[WIU] 40K
[PSV] 25K
Randolph Freelander
Member
Good point. Do they or do they not call up Best Buy and ask them about numbers? Cell phone, land line, carrier pigeon, doesn't matter.
perfectchaos007
Member
[360] 178K
[3DS] 185K
[PS3] 142K
[PSV] 30K
[WIU] 35K
[3DS] 185K
[PS3] 142K
[PSV] 30K
[WIU] 35K
Exterminieren
Banned
What in God's name?
We know it's already sold ~100K in a week at the start of the month. You seriously think the average dropped to 10K per week after that?
Randolph Freelander
Member
You know nothing of the sort. You have PR which says there was a boost from x to 4x for a period of time you might assume to be y. You do not know x or y. For that matter, you shouldn't fully trust the 4. Grains of salt, take them.
Starfish Hero
Member
You're in denial, for whatever reason. Being PR doesn't discredit the statement at all. Every number you get that isn't a guess is either straight from PR or an estimate based on something said by PR.
Exterminieren
Banned
We have had Iwata come out and say that the sales of the 3DS quadrupled in the first week of Animal Crossing sales. It averaged ~28K a week in May. There weren't huge releases in May to really skew hardware sales one way or another apart from a Donkey Kong port, so it isn't unreasonable to assume that this average is reasonably close to the truth for any given week.
Even if you chose to not believe Iwata's comments for whatever reason, there is absolutely zero reason to think 3DS stayed flat weekly with the release of its biggest title for months and months.
metalslimer
Member
To be fair we don't know what the first week of June's sales are. There is no reason reason to believe it would significantly drop from May's average but who knows what exactly was sold in each week of May. However no wait dropped that hard for 145 to be possible without some freak sales event
Exterminieren
Banned
Granted, but I covered that. Unless you believe DKC port to be a big pusher of hardware, there's little reason to assume fluctuations in the span of that month, and even if it is, that makes it backloaded.
perfectchaos007
Member
Okay I edited my 3DS prediction again. I don't want to kill the GAF aggregate by lowballing too hard. I'm lowballing, but not as hard as before
Randolph Freelander
Member
It's not denial, in fact, I don't particularly care one way or the other. I'm generally not one to believe in game related spikes in American sales, and if they do exist they are generally blips on the radar, so I immediately find talks of "quadrupling" dubious, and temporary at best. (Sustainable shifts in the demand curve are, of course, a different matter.)
What are you guys expecting for DS? Is it 225, 250 or something? If I had to bet like a dollar on it, I'd say 170 and even then I'd say I'm over. If I lose, I'd be out a dollar.
Exterminieren
Banned
You don't believe in desirable software pushing hardware?
I mean, no one's claiming that 3DS is going to sell 450K this month, but I think you underestimate Animal Crossing.
Randolph Freelander
Member
I didn't say that at all. But I generally believe and have observed sales in these United States of America to gradually rise and fall in response to sustained momentum shifts, and spike for holidays. Games have an impact, but those impacts are felt before, during, and after the game is released. Gamers find all kinds of excuses to buy a system early or reasons to buy a system later. And, yes, some manage to buy it that day, but my world view (which is occasionally wrong) says that it's smaller percentage than many around here believe. (Conveniently-timed price drops, bundles, and special editions certainly have impacts, however.) And then there's the whole notion that the buyer is quite often not the gamer, so release calendars lose relevance.
Caveat: I don't particularly pay attention to handheld sales, so for all I know, it follows a far different pattern.
Exterminieren
Banned
Generally speaking, yes. Titles such as Pokémon games, Mario games and, yes, Animal Crossing games, have always heralded rises on handheld hardware, and probably to a greater extent than we see on the consoles. The Game Boy was pretty much exclusively revived by Pokémon back in the day.
Of course, Animal Crossing also comes in a hardware bundle, which probably had at least a partial impact.
Aquamarine
Member
[360] 100k
[3DS] 250k
[PS3] 85k
[PSV] 15k
[WIU] 30k
I think 3DS will do well due to AC:NL. I see TLOU also doing excellent, but end of generation, most people prob have a PS3 by now. Though, I'm an outliner. I bought my current PS3 for it. lol (well, bought it last year though)
[3DS] 250k
[PS3] 85k
[PSV] 15k
[WIU] 30k
I think 3DS will do well due to AC:NL. I see TLOU also doing excellent, but end of generation, most people prob have a PS3 by now. Though, I'm an outliner. I bought my current PS3 for it. lol (well, bought it last year though)
I don't know what they'll report. I do know that they're tracking sales.
Aquamarine
Member
For reference (regarding new products available for the Nintendo ecosystem):
June 2013 Reporting Period: June 2-July 6 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
I apologize for any mistakes. Please correct me if I've made any.
Code:
[U][B]Wii U Retail Releases, June 2013 Reporting Period, North America:
[/B][/U]06/23/13 Game & Wario™ E (Everyone): Cartoon Violence, Crude Humor Multi-screen Action Game Wii U
Code:
[U][B]Wii U eShop Releases, June 2013 Reporting Period, North America:
[/B][/U]
06/20/13 New Super Luigi U E (Everyone): Comic Mischief Action, Platformer Wii U
06/13/13 Mutant Mudds Deluxe E (Everyone): Mild Fantasy Violence Action, Platformer Wii U
Code:
[U][B]Wii U VC releases, June 2013 Reporting Period, North America:
[/B][/U]
07/04/13 Pilotwings E (Everyone): Mild Violence Simulation Wii U
06/27/13 Vegas Stakes™ E (Everyone): Simulated Gambling Simulation Wii U
06/20/13 Wrecking Crew™ E (Everyone) Puzzle, Strategy Wii U
06/20/13 Mario Bros.™ E (Everyone) Action, Adventure Wii U
06/12/13 Yoshi™ E (Everyone) Puzzle Wii U
06/06/13 Spelunker™ E (Everyone) Action, Adventure Wii U
Code:
[U][B]3DS Retail Releases, June 2013 Reporting Period, North America:
[/B][/U]
06/25/13 Project Zone™ T (Teen): Mild Blood, Mild Language, Role-Playing N3DS
Partial Nudity, Suggestive Themes,
Alcohol and Tobacco Reference,
Fantasy Violence
06/25/13 LEGO® Legends of Chima: Laval's Journey E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Cartoon Violence Action, Adventure N3DS
06/09/13 Animal Crossing™: New Leaf E (Everyone): Comic Mischief Community Simulation N3DS
Code:
[U][B]3DS eShop Releases, June 2013 Reporting Period, North America:
[/B][/U]
07/04/13 Fishdom H2O: Hidden Odyssey E (Everyone) Action, Adventure N3DS
07/04/13 Deer Hunting King E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Mild Violence First-Person Action N3DS
07/02/13 Crash City Mayhem T (Teen): Mild Language, Mild Violence Racing N3DS
06/27/13 URBAN TRIAL FREESTYLE E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Mild Violence Sports, Racing N3DS
06/27/13 Gabrielle's Ghostly Groove™ Mini E (Everyone) Rhythm, Dance, Music N3DS
06/27/13 Kokuga E (Everyone): Mild Fantasy Violence Shooter, Action, Multiplayer N3DS
06/20/13 Rhythm Core Alpha 2™ E (Everyone) Music, Fitness, Lifestyle N3DS
06/20/13 BUGS vs. TANKS!™ T (Teen): Fantasy Violence, Language Action, Adventure N3DS
06/20/13 Farming Simulator 3D E (Everyone) Simulation N3DS
06/13/13 Big Bass Arcade: No Limit E (Everyone) Sports, Arcade N3DS
06/13/13 Mighty Switch Force! 2 E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Fantasy Violence, Action, Puzzle, Shooter, N3DS
Suggestive Themes Adventure
06/13/13 PICROSS e E (Everyone) Puzzle, Strategy N3DS
Code:
[U][B]3DS VC Releases, June 2013 Reporting Period, North America:
[/B][/U]
07/04/13 G-LOC Air Battle E (Everyone): Animated Violence Action, Adventure N3DS
07/04/13 Vampire Master of Darkness E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Fantasy Violence Action, Adventure N3DS
07/04/13 Sonic Drift 2 E (Everyone) Sports, Racing N3DS
06/27/13 Sonic Labyrinth E (Everyone) Action, Adventure N3DS
06/27/13 Crystal Warriors E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Fantasy Violence Role-Playing N3DS
06/27/13 Spelunker™ E (Everyone) Action, Adventure N3DS
06/27/13 Sonic The Hedgehog 2 E (Everyone) Action, Adventure N3DS
06/20/13 Tails Adventure E (Everyone) Action, Adventure N3DS
06/20/13 Sonic Blast E (Everyone) Action, Adventure N3DS
06/20/13 Mega Man 6™ E (Everyone): Mild Fantasy Violence Action, Arcade, Platformer N3DS
06/20/13 Defenders of Oasis E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Alcohol Reference, Role-Playing N3DS
Fantasy Violence
06/13/13 Sonic The Hedgehog E (Everyone) Action, Adventure, Platformer N3DS
06/13/13 Columns E (Everyone) Puzzle, Strategy N3DS
06/13/13 Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine E (Everyone) Puzzle, Strategy N3DS
06/13/13 Shining Force: Sword of Hajya E10+ (Everyone 10 and older): Fantasy Violence Role-Playing N3DSJune 2013 Reporting Period: June 2-July 6 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
I apologize for any mistakes. Please correct me if I've made any.
Did you type all that up yourself? Or did you get it from somewhere? I'd like that kind of data on a regular basis, but I end up doing it myself...
Edit: On my list I have Dungeons & Dragons: Chronicles of Mystara as released in the past month. Is that not true?
Edit2: I see it's probably not out yet? Nintendo has an eShop link on their website and a June release date...
shinra-bansho
Member
Right, I think that this is more the Wii falling than the Wii U growing. I have it below the May weekly average.
Aquamarine
Member
http://www.nintendo.com/games/detail/W47ji6c9ApRD_LJM2yoq7UchRj_VqCbd
I think it got pushed back for the Wii U. I don't have any record of it releasing, but it would be best if someone could check the North American Wii U eShop and see if it's available.
While certainly the impact is less in the U.S. than in Japan, where first week sales are sometimes 2/3rds of the LTD sales for a game, there are relative spikes in the weekly results for hardware in the U.S. Microsoft mentioned 2x increase in weekly sales for GTAIV, for example. Beyond the fact that it's much less an immediate impact than in Japan for a game release, the U.S. also reports on a monthly basis, so a weekly spike for a game gets smeared out over the whole month making it seem that much less influential. e.g. If someone was going to buy the system in a week or two, but a game comes out and they buy it this week, that could lead to a net increase of 0 for the month, even though the weekly result went up.
As you said, special edition hardware is a driver of new hardware purchases in the U.S., though, and there was a special edition Animal Crossing hardware released. In March, the Pikachu LE 3DSXL was released, and it was what put 3DS up YOY for the month, IIRC.
Edit:
A flat weekly rate from May to June would be ~144K for the month, so a 170K June would still be a weekly rate increase with probably most of that being in the AC release week for the bundle. I think it'll be higher, but then that's why we wait for the NPD results instead of declaring the winner early.
I checked yesterday, but it was not released yet on the eShop. Its really annoying since that's the system I want to get this game on.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
[360] 160k
[3DS] 360k
[PS3] 120k
[PSV] 18k
[WIU] 43k
This is going to end up being a terrible result for me, but the 3DS has really pick up right now to meet my yearly predictions, so whatever.
[3DS] 360k
[PS3] 120k
[PSV] 18k
[WIU] 43k
This is going to end up being a terrible result for me, but the 3DS has really pick up right now to meet my yearly predictions, so whatever.