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[Petrae]

Has Mr. Kimashima recently suffered a blow to the head? Maybe from a fall? Anyway...

Lightning isn't striking twice. Wanna believe that Switch outsells WiiU? I'll buy that, despite the bar being ridiculously low. But Wii? Come the fuck on. Launching mid-generation against two comparatively-priced and well-established consoles in the primes of their lifespans isn't the same as launching against a $600 PlayStation 3 and a still-expensive Xbox 360. The competition is a lot more fierce this time around, with both companies ready to drop pricing if Nintendo begins to pose any kind of threat.

Baby steps, Mr. Kimashima. Let's start with selling more than the WiiU and showing that the Switch is a legitimate contender. Then you can set your sights higher.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

He's real good at setting himself up for disappointment.

Maybe he's secretly a Neogaf member.

You really believe HE believes that??????

 

[Inuhanyou]

I'm pretty excited for the switch..but naw.

i don't think any videogame console or handheld will ever hit those numbers again.

PS4 will if it stays on its current trajectory for about 3 more years as Sony expects.

 

[Serenitynow]

Ok... But then why are you only producing 2 million for launch?

Edit: I meant the first month. 2 mil on Day 1 would be epic

 

[rekameohs]

I'm pretty bullish on Switch sales, but uh......nah, man.

 

[udivision]

Ok... But then why are you only producing 2 million for launch?

2 million a month, every month for 50 months. Lets go.

 

[Anteo]

Lmao
Nah
I mean when it becomes the only nintebdo handheld it will get some sales but... no way it surpases the 3ds

 

[FlaygletheBagel]

The Switch breaking 100 million sales? I kind of doubt it. It'll probably do well but I don't see it doing much better than 2/3rds of what the Wii did, and even that feels high.

 

[Skittzo0413]

WII was the perfect combination of an unique hardware and software gimmick ( motion controls + dedicated software like Wii Fit , Wii Sports etc ) at the perfect time. On top of that great marketing , right pricing , good support and so on.

Switch is a great hardware but the " on the go " concept is not comparable, at all..

Remember though that the DS line also sold 150 million. The Switch right now is too expensive to be in any sort of similar position, but once the 3DS support dries up and a smaller, cheaper Switch is released I can see its massive library of console level games be very, very enticing.

Really more than anything, I think the Switch will indeed get the most first party software any console has gotten since the DS, and potentially even more than that. That will be a big differentiator, especially if it sells well enough initially to warrant decent AAA third party support. If that happens, you get a good chunk of multiplats plus the most exclusives possible all on a relatively cheap portable device. That's a very easy sell.

Edit: for the record I don't think this will sell anywhere near 100 million in 5 years, but maybe around that number in 10 years if this is their only line going forward. But I also don't think it's impossible for it to sell 100M in 5 years... Just incredibly unlikely.

 

[The_Endgamer]

Well I've got 2 Switch consoles on launch day (Me and my bro), with possibly 3rd Switch console in my household in the first 2 months... which is 3 more than I had of the Wii in the same time period.

(I didn't get a Wii until after SMG2 came out)

I think it will sell well and personally think it might reach those expectations.

 

[……forgetit]

Hahahahahahaha, yeah, not happening.

 

[Hattori]

If the Cubs can win a WS down 3-1 anything is possible 😤

 

[WhiskerFrisker]

I'm not confirming nor denying anything so that I'd look like a fool when we revisit this thread in a couple of years. Let's see what happens. I'm

 

[guek]

 

[goldenpp72]

the price is not right for that and the power nah man nah

Wii sold out for a year at 250 and was a repackaged gamecube in specs, so, not really different. Obviously there is a big difference here in hype and such but come on, don't be dense, at least use the right reasons.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Switch is going to sell to diehards then drop off, which is pretty much the same level of sales as the Wii U. It will probably expand a little bit beyond that and end up selling slightly better than the Wii U.

Pokémon alone should ensure it does much better than that.

 

[Baroquemantic]

Not happening. Maybe it'll do as well as 3DS, though.

 

[z0m3le]

The DS sold 50% better than the Wii, if Nintendo is positioning this as the successor to 3DS in a year, then it definitely has a chance to capture 100m units.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

lol

 

[Drilbit777]

Theres no way lightning can strike twice in a bottle for them. At the best i do think it should do as well as N64 numbers.

 

[Blastoise]

Good luck. Seriously. Hope you can do it.

 

[cubicle47b]

I don't think the Switch will sell 100 million units. 3DS numbers are certainly possible.

 

[VariantX]

The Wii came out with a concept that no one else was pursuing at the time that broke down barriers as to who you could sell videogame hardware to due to its incredible accessibility with motion controls that ANYONE could understand. The switch doesn't exactly do anything but refine known concepts and break no new ground in terms of accessibility. It certainly has higher sales potential than Wii U, probably around 3DS level sales potential if the software picks up momentum after this year. Wii level sales are out of the question I feel due to the dominance of mobile and fierce competition in the console market.

 

[MHWilliams]

The salt on GAF could be worse than the Wii days. Seems hard to believe with the Switch hype and disgust core gamers had for motion controls, but there are people that have a deep seated resentment for Nintendo building up over decades, for them to never make another "real console" with Wii-like success of a hybrid would make people lose it.

So... do you think Nintendo will hit 101 million in sales on the Switch?

Again, let me offer the numbers for home consoles.

PlayStation 2: 155 million
PlayStation: 102.49 million
Wii: 101.63 million
Xbox 360: 84 million
PlayStation 3: 83.8 million
NES: 61.91 million
PlayStation 4: 53.4 million
Super NES: 49 million
N64: 32.9 million

Do you believe with everything that the Switch offers that customers will carry the system to the top of that list?

 

[rekameohs]

I'm not confirming nor denying anything so that I'd look like a fool when we revisit this thread in a couple of years. Let's see what happens. I'm

Hey, I'd love to look like a fool in a few years.

 

[jnWake]

I don't think it'll happen but Nintendo usually sells more than 100 million hardware per generation. It's tough to group the Gameboy along one home console, but pick either the NES, SNES or N64 (EDIT: Well, not N64, thought it had more sales but it's still close haha) and you get more than 100M. Same for GBA+GCN. Obviously same for Wii+DS. Only exception so far is 3DS+Wii U which could be an outlier due to Wii U being another level of failure or could also be a sign of Nintendo's current position on the market.

In any case, considering their history 100M hardware units for the Switch, assuming it's the only hardware they release, doesn't seem like a crazy expectation.

 

[Sizzel]

Wow. How? I have bought one and I am not even hyped. No way do I see normies gravitating en masse to this like the Wii. Wii was a cultural phenomenon. WiiU to GC numbers for the Switch. Small stable with some really great exclusive games and super rabidly loyal fan base. I think it will shake techwise/Multiplats -it shakes PC>Scorpio>Pro>4>1>Switch. Exclusives PS>Switch>MS>PC ...

Interestingly, if this isn't corporate chest pounding, then either Nintendo knows something the collective gaming population is unaware of or this explains a lot. So simple Nintendo..build powerhouse system, train 1st part devs up and hire trained foreign devs to bridge the gap in knowledge, welcome third parties with open arms, "normal" online system. We all want you to win Nintendo, we also all want a new Metroid. Switch 150$ would have been epic.

 

[fastballspecial]

Does Nintendo not understand the Wii's success was a fluke?

 

[Air]

They must have some secret bangers to be that confident

EDIT: Especially when both their handheld and console divisions are shrinking

 

[mario_O]

Wii sold out for a year at 250 and was a repackaged gamecube in specs, so, not really different. Obviously there is a big difference here in hype and such but come on, don't be dense, at least use the right reasons.

Wii came with a game. Switch is $100 more expensive. But yeah, more importantly, a gimmick that isn't as interesting.

 

[random25]

While I don't believe it's happening, I'm glad they are ambitious about the Switch's future. Who knows? A lot of people here surely doubted the Wii before, and it became a hit. Anything can happen.

 

[vaporeon]

Three things made the Wii become a standout success:
- Wii Sports, a solo and group friendly pack in that, while being mostly a tech demo, set the stage for what the Wii could do and got people interested. I know people who bought the damn thing based on Bowling and Tennis alone;

- Price relative to other video game competition - Wii's $249 compared to Xbox 360's $299+; and

- Advertising, both TV and word of mouth. Wii had regularly played, smart, TV advertising campaign ("Wii would like to play!") and Wii Sports launched word of mouth advertising, with people selling the concepts of the system to people who might not have otherwise been interested.

Switch has none of these. No pack in, and even if 1, 2, Switch came with it, it would pale in comparison to Wii Sports as a vehicle to drive interest due to the entire concept (a video game that omits the video parts to play). The price is going to be as high, if not higher, than their established opponents. I see regular deals for the PS4 Slim and the XBOne S for $249. And advertising? One month away and advertising is limited to Youtube and internet sites.

This doesn't even get into the comparison of accessory costs (you could have bought a second Wiimote, Nunchuck and a pro controller for less than a second pair of Switch joy-cons).

Switch is going to sell to diehards then drop off, which is pretty much the same level of sales as the Wii U. It will probably expand a little bit beyond that and end up selling slightly better than the Wii U.

You're missing how the Wii managed to capture an audience of players that literally never played games before. They wanted to play Wii Sports, Wii Fit, etc. It made a cultural footprint in that regard.

Switch is getting a Super Bowl commercial! At least they are picking up steam, somewhat.

Wii's success was not at launch with that $249 price tag. When it started to drop, more people were pouring in. Switch's launch price isn't bad. Nintendo needs to time their price drops carefully to capture people outside of the diehard crowd they are baiting at launch.

I agree that no pack-in title is the Switch's biggest flaw. I would hope they do one soon, maybe paired with a price drop?

 

[Yarbskoo]

You really believe HE believes that??????

Probably not.

But he'll still be disappointed.

 

[DylanEno]

Of course he's going to say that, even if he knows it isn't true. He kinda has to. I don't blame him at all.

But no.

That being said, they do seem to be going all in with this marketing blitz and I think it is going to be very successful. Please don't let me be wrong.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

... Maybe he meant in Japan? 🤔

 

[D.Lo]

Bold, but no way of knowing for now. Consoles need long term momentum to reach those kind of numbers.

At the start of the gen Wii U looked like 30-50, and Xbone 50-100 were possible. But things changed.

But they certainly have a good plan laid out.

No way. Not even the 3DS has come close.

3DS will probably sell 75 million, 75% is fairly close no?

Does Nintendo not understand the Wii's success was a fluke?

They did it twice buddy, the Wii was the second one...

 

[Dimmle]

itprintshubris.gif

 

[JordanN]

So... do you think Nintendo will hit 101 million in sales on the Switch?

Again, let me offer the numbers for home consoles.

PlayStation 2: 155 million
PlayStation: 102.49 million
Wii: 101.63 million
Xbox 360: 84 million
PlayStation 3: 83.8 million
NES: 61.91 million
PlayStation 4: 53.4 million
Super NES: 49 million
N64: 32.9 million

Do you believe with everything that the Switch offers that customers will carry the system to the top of that list?

Other things to add:

-They're competing against mobile devices. Past consoles/handhelds never had that threat.
-They're charging for online.
-HD development = less games being made in similar time spans
-$60 games. Handhelds use to have the benefit of having far cheaper games than console counterparts. With Switch, it's complete parity.
-It's made by Nintendo.

 

[Spukc]

Why stop at the wii.
Let's beat that ps2.

 

[Kurdel]

Do you believe with everything that the Switch offers that customers will carry the system to the top of that list?

The only way I see this is possible is if the Switch is forward compatible with the next dedicated home box and handheld, and they keep the switch "platform" for like 10 years.

Wich still requires improbable mental gymnastics.

 

[Guevara]

We sure he didn't actually say "Wii U"?

 

[DeuceGamer]

It's good to have goals. Not many consoles ever make it to Wii levels. Maybe they expect it to sell that well because they will be releasing different variations like Switch HH, Switch Home, Switch 2.0, etc... Still would be surprising if it sold near Wii levels.

 

[Mr-Joker]

I expected it to do better than Wii U sales but whether it will reach Wii level of sales, well I will reserve my judgement when the system is released and "Pokémon Star" hits the systems, assuming Eurogamer rumour is true.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

nm

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Wii sold out for a year at 250 and was a repackaged gamecube in specs, so, not really different. Obviously there is a big difference here in hype and such but come on, don't be dense, at least use the right reasons.

this is a different time.

the only way the Switch can do this is if Nintendo dumped the 3DS ASAP and allow all future games to be Switch only and also provide a new dock with a beefy GPU/CPU add-on

this is a very different marketplace

Pokemon on Switch will help tho

 

[Xaero Gravity]

.

 

[Mysterious Stranger]

Alshon Jeffrey also said the Bears will win the Super Bowl next year.

We will when we get a decent qb!

 

[Buggy Loop]

I prefer this type of Nintendo.

Switch is probably the best strategy they could have come up with to ever re-achieving that again.

 

[-Stranger-]

It's going to sell better than GCN and Wii U easily though

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

Yeah that's...not going to happen.

Wii was cheaper
Wii had a great pack in that sold the concept
Wii had a unique and new(ish) concept
Wii wasn't charging for online
Wii accessories were cheaper