A Link to the Past
Banned
Oh poor baby Kimishima
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Kimishima thinks the Switch has the potential to reach Wii-like sales
- Thread starter DNAbro
- Start date
ZombiePlatypus
Member
Should have had 1 2 Switch as a pack in then.
peaceiscloser
Member
If Nintendo can find a really good pack-in for a bundle set in time for the holidays I'd say it's possible.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Its gonna really funny when this thread is bumped in a few months...
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
Of course he does. The Wii is the bar they want to surpass.
This is not possible, mostly because Nintendo decided to not put a pack-in in this system. Wii had a killer app that was in every single console: Wii Sports. 1 2 Switch could have been that game, but instead Nintendo decided to package it separately, despite the fact that in no way shape or form does what we see make it look like it's worth $60.
A Link to the Past
Banned
My expectation is that it'll be lucky to beat the N64. I mean, how can they expect to compete with the Wii when:
1. The Switch isn't competitively priced (entry barrier)
2. Online is paid (entry barrier)
3. Controllers are more expensive than the standard price (entry barrier)
4. No proof-of-concept game out of the box (entry barrier)
?
The Wii had all of these things down pat, and the Switch does not.
1. The Switch isn't competitively priced (entry barrier)
2. Online is paid (entry barrier)
3. Controllers are more expensive than the standard price (entry barrier)
4. No proof-of-concept game out of the box (entry barrier)
?
The Wii had all of these things down pat, and the Switch does not.
No, that wasn't the exact statement.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Consumers/Nintendo-to-equip-Switch-with-upgraded-web-services
The Dutch Slayer
Member
Hahaha no way.....
It will do gamecube numbers if they are lucky.
Seriously "that wii crowd" does not exist for them anymore.
It will do gamecube numbers if they are lucky.
Seriously "that wii crowd" does not exist for them anymore.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Good to see that Nintendo us fully convinced in their new platform, but I'm inclined to disagree with this one.
I'll also throw in "external" factors like world events and political turmoil may suppress sales.
Wandering Robot
Member
Good luck to them. The Wii's sales were an anomaly, as we're all aware, but time will tell.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
With the exception of the launch price maybe, most of those aren't really entry barriers. Like the PS4 also has paid online, expensive (and shitty) controllers and never had a "proof of concept game" and that hasn't stopped it from selling.
If anything, these are bigger concerns.
Milly Osworth
Member
If you want to come close, better make 100% right choices from now on then Kimi.
Then they are mad. With this price and no games included they would have to bend reality to achieve Wii sales. It's literally impossible.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
What do you want him to say? Anything other statement would inspire a lack of confidence.
Hibiki Kurosawa
Member
Woah, woah, woah. Okay, so I'd love it if it sold that well, but jesus, I don't see it happening. I'm not so sure it will even reach 3DS. I sorta see 50 mil lifetime for some reason. Please prove me wrong Kimishima, but don't be surprised if you don't even hit half your expectations.
I hope their roadmap has them drop the price to 250 after tax with 1 2 Switch packed in before Christmas, otherwise I can't really see how this is going to attract non and lapsed gamers like the Wii did.
That said I expect it to do around 3DS levels or slightly above, which considering that the traditional games market seems to be contracting sharply, should be considered a big win.
That said I expect it to do around 3DS levels or slightly above, which considering that the traditional games market seems to be contracting sharply, should be considered a big win.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Casual gamers aren't the ones buying the PS4, and the core gamers that pay to go online aren't going to pay for Nintendo quality, even if it's budget. If Nintendo wants Wii sales, they need casual appeal, which the Switch just can't pull off with the approach they're taking.
Herb Alpert
Banned
I can see this thread reaching a lot of pages.
I guess kimishima is using something we call in France "la méthode coué".
If I keep saying things maybe they will happen. I wish Switch sold as much but come on.
I guess kimishima is using something we call in France "la méthode coué".
If I keep saying things maybe they will happen. I wish Switch sold as much but come on.
GameAddict411
Member
I seriously doubt it will beat the 3DS let alone the Wii. Nintendo seems to be living in a bubble. You can no longer sell dedicated handhelds for $300 in this day and age. I know that Nintendo is marketing it as a console too, but I seriously doubt it will really compete with the PS4 or XO in anyway.
xDUMPWEEDx
Banned
So, what, 100 million units?
Honestly I would be surprised if Switch sells even half of that. I would think the 35-40 million range would be more realistic.
Honestly I would be surprised if Switch sells even half of that. I would think the 35-40 million range would be more realistic.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
If you add the Wii U and 3DS together you're an entire GameCube + Virtual Boy short of the Wii.
In other words lol no.
In other words lol no.
GabeTheGrouch76
Member
The PS4's success can be attributed to factors that in most cases aren't the same as the factors that made the Wii a success. Likewise, the markets that made each console successful are also substantially different to each other.
A Link to the Past specifically cited that the Switch is competing with the Wii in terms of replicating the same success. The PS4 is selling, but for the most part, it's not for the same reasons that the Wii was selling.
Several people were also predicting the Wii U would underpeform prior to its release. You didn't need to be an expert to hedge your bets on that outcome, to be honest.
There's a lot of people in here who are very sure they know better than Kimishima. He knows the console more intimately than anyone in the world, he knows every game coming for it, every deal in the works, the strategies, everything. He is the most qualified person to estimate the sales of this console, mind you he also predicted the Wii U's failure, the man is not an optimist without good reason.
xDUMPWEEDx
Banned
While the Switch does look like an amazing console, I'm still sticking with my guess of 35-40 million sold. If the switch looked like garbage I would guess ~15 million just like how the Wii U ended up.
Remember, the Wii was an absolute phenomenon. It was everywhere. It went completely mainstream. With all of these factors, it sold 100 million units. Unfortunately the Switch won't have any of those factors.
I'd put my own guess around 50-60 million, I'm just saying that the man should hopefully know his shit.
Lol, sure
That's why Iwata's Wii U forecasts were so much more accurate than what you could find on GAF. (hint: they weren't at all)
And Kimishima predicted it would fail.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
"Casual" and "Core" aren't things. You're delusional if you think the PS4 and Switch aren't going for just one or the other.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Well that is just crazy talk.
GhostTrick
Banned
At this price, with that software lineup, with that online paywall and with those pricey accessories... It's going for Wii U numbers, not Wii.
Milly Osworth
Member
Price and lineup aren't exactly set in stone for the next 5 years.
matrix-cat
Member
I'd love to know how many of those hundred million Wiis were only ever Wii Sports machines. $250 with a pack-in just doesn't compare to $300 with nothing (or a cool tree fitty if you get 1-2-Switch). I'm sure it'll sell better than the Wii U did, maybe even above Gamecube/N64 numbers, but a hundred mill? Come off it, mate.