Ouside of GAF and hardcore sites it seems to be getting nothing but really good impressions. Of all the concepts (price, online and third party) I´d say only price is really important for the casual crowd, which is what will eventually define if Switch becomes huge or not. IMO pricing is too expensive yet, Wii´s sucess was based on it being a totally new experience, easy to understand and cheap pricing which helped making it something to gift to everyone, buy in an impulse or become the secondary console for the more hardcore gamers.
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Kimishima thinks the Switch has the potential to reach Wii-like sales
- Thread starter DNAbro
- Start date
Ouside of GAF and hardcore sites it seems to be getting nothing but really good impressions. Of all the concepts (price, online and third party) I´d say only price is really important for the casual crowd, which is what will eventually define if Switch becomes huge or not. IMO pricing is too expensive yet, Wii´s sucess was based on it being a totally new experience, easy to understand and cheap pricing which helped making it something to gift to everyone, buy in an impulse or become the secondary console for the more hardcore gamers.
SporeCrawler
Member
Well for nintendo the hybrid platform strategy would be a net loss if the platform doesnt sell 3DS+WiiU numbers which would be about 80 million..
I think the different perceptions may also relate to cultural differences. In the US, everything is "gorgeous", "amazing", or "terrific". In Europe, such words are less commonly used and we take a more objective/less emotional stance. As such, initial hands-on reports in Germany are positive, but the outlook in terms of price and games makes most reports sound rather mixed. For example, a lot of reports mention that 1 2 Switch is fun, but most likely not worth 50.
Perhaps that also explains why American preorders are sold out, whereas there's still ample supply in Europe.
Katzenjammer
Member
I think it has the potential to become a huge success (though I doubt it'll ever be Wii-huge). The price is slightly too high right now though (in Sweden) and it would really benefit from having a pack-in.
These are both things that Nintendo can fix in time for the holidays, and the game lineup will look better by then as well (especially after e3 where they announce more projects). The March-release feels more like a soft-launch to me.
As the initial reveal confusion has settled a bit, I'm more convinced than ever that Nintendo has crafted a really unique and interesting console here.
These are both things that Nintendo can fix in time for the holidays, and the game lineup will look better by then as well (especially after e3 where they announce more projects). The March-release feels more like a soft-launch to me.
As the initial reveal confusion has settled a bit, I'm more convinced than ever that Nintendo has crafted a really unique and interesting console here.
Aztechnology
Member
This is the reason I don't think you can try to target casual gamers as your core market audience.
Iphone sales (Keeps on track generally with smartphones sales)
I could be wrong though.
Iphone sales (Keeps on track generally with smartphones sales)
I could be wrong though.
witchedwiz
Member
Stakeholders oriented talk at its best...
People acting like this is some bold/delusional prediction, but let's just look at some numbers...
Wii : 101 M
GB : 118 M GBA : 81 M DS : 154 M 3DS : 65 M
Nintendo's handhelds are historically their strongest business. If you combine the 3DS and the Wii U's base as well as manage to capture some lapsed Nintendo fans, former Wii owners, and some other gamers who are intrigued by the hook of the Switch, you can get a lot closer to that Wii number than it may seem looking at console sales alone.
But hey, if this was a console alone, Nintendo might be lucky to sell as well as the Xbox One.
Wii : 101 M
GB : 118 M GBA : 81 M DS : 154 M 3DS : 65 M
Nintendo's handhelds are historically their strongest business. If you combine the 3DS and the Wii U's base as well as manage to capture some lapsed Nintendo fans, former Wii owners, and some other gamers who are intrigued by the hook of the Switch, you can get a lot closer to that Wii number than it may seem looking at console sales alone.
But hey, if this was a console alone, Nintendo might be lucky to sell as well as the Xbox One.
Not really, the 3DS isn't going anywhere and they already confirmed they'll probably make a successor.
Nintendo needs to come to grips with why the Wii sold. It wasn't because Nintendo put forward a brilliant innovation, it was because they stumbled into a fad. They became the "it" item for a select period of time. Things cascaded, and they ended up having a tremendous sales hit. Unfortunately, they also did very little for gamers during that time. So, inevitably, the fickle casual consumer wasn't around for the next console and the disenfranchised gamer wanted little to do with Nintendo. They are going to have to work really damn hard to earn those gamers back. They sure as hell aren't going to do Wii numbers any time soon. They need to stop expecting to just stumble into the zeitgeist again. It isn't going to happen.
Maybe if they started pumping out games for it and dropped the 3ds.
3ds only started taking off in the first place when games came out for it. Not sure what Nintendo's thinking.
rochellepaws
Member
A company president saying their new product will be their most successful yet is sort of what he has to say, isn't it? I don't think anyone including Kimishima believes that, Nintendo would be delighted if it sold half that.
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
If the Switch is replacing the 3DS and Wii U then it seems a stretch for Switch to even get to total lifetime sales of the 3DS and Wii U combined. Which must be easily less than 80m.
Nintendo software droughts.
Limited third party support.
Paid online.
Expensive compared to previous mass market handhelds.
All of the above aren't going to help getting to his target. Just getting to the 3DS level of sales (62+m) would be an amazing accomplishment. I really don't see it unless there's some very big price cuts and hardware revisions during the Switch's life cycle.
Nintendo software droughts.
Limited third party support.
Paid online.
Expensive compared to previous mass market handhelds.
All of the above aren't going to help getting to his target. Just getting to the 3DS level of sales (62+m) would be an amazing accomplishment. I really don't see it unless there's some very big price cuts and hardware revisions during the Switch's life cycle.
Phife Dawg
Member
Nope, it would be a loss if they generated less profit with their platform strategy in the long run.
Except they didn't.
... How old are you? Do you even remember the negative reaction that stuck to the Wii up until shortly after the release? I mean to be honest the Wii is still shit on by gamers for no reason really, but it has nothing but bad buzz until it took off.
Their pricing and relatively thin release lineup imply that the entire company is rather confident in their product.
The basics:
For the Switch to sell 100 million, Nintendo first need to make 100 million units. We're getting just over 2 million for launch and I doubt that there'll even be 50 million available to buy after 1 year of launch.
They'd then need that same trajectory for both year 2 and year 3 to achieve those numbers.
For the Switch to sell 100 million, Nintendo first need to make 100 million units. We're getting just over 2 million for launch and I doubt that there'll even be 50 million available to buy after 1 year of launch.
They'd then need that same trajectory for both year 2 and year 3 to achieve those numbers.
This is the reason I don't think you can try to target casual gamers as your core market audience.
Iphone sales (Keeps on track generally with smartphones sales)
I could be wrong though.
I need these figures in pie charts to understand them.
Eh.. Nintendo managed to make 100 million Wii Units just fine. I don't think manufacturing will be an issue if the demand is there.
To be honest, it's generally people on NeoGAF that are disappointed with price and lineup.
Outside of NeoGAF (and where it really counts) the general public are very warm to the Switch. The preorders have almost all but sold out, Nintendo is having to make more units for the launch period and there seems to be a healthy interest from the media.
Aztechnology
Member
I think that's a fair estimate.
I'll just link to this post of mine as it more or less covers what I'd reply to you. US and European perceptions seem to be a bit different.
RedAssedApe
Banned
Good luck considering the mixed reaction. Although you never know with the casual buyers.
Can Crusher
Banned
Don't see how.
difference of course being the wii novelty factor targeted everyone. including your 90 year old grandma. can you imagine your mum or gran running out and buying a switch, with all those buttons, and a screen, and detachable controller parts etc? the wii was gaming simplicity in a box. it was a small jump from touch screen tablet games in terms of casual experiences. it's appeal was broad. the switch doesn't come across as that at all. it's a core console, for core gamers...only minus the third party support those core gamers expect. it's Wii-U but untethered. and i think most normal folk will see it that way. expensive and offering less.
i'd be surprised if it sold even a quarter of what the wii sold tbh.
Can you back this up with anything besides anecdotal evidence? I have yet to hear anyone outside of the gaming sphere even mention Switch.
I mean, more power to them for these high expectations but I am not sure how much of that blue ocean they'll actively manage to carve out of for themselves.
Given that one of Reggie's points in that Deadlock video for the Switch was how the Wii revolutionized with its' motion controls, it feels like they're doubling down on how much untapped market they'll manage to capitalize on again as they managed with the Wii.
And honestly, good luck with that. Their marketing is on point and maybe they will manage to make the Switch the next big thing everybody needs to have. Can't fault them for setting their expectations high, although personally I think the Switch will face a severe uphill battle against traditional tablets, its' very own 3DS line (until they cut off that one after ensuring enough 3DS demand translates into Switch demand) and even dedicated home consoles (to a small extent), so we'll see how they manage to position themselves on the market and if they do manage to accomplish those expectations.
I don't think it's impossible, but easy by any extent it won't be either.
Given that one of Reggie's points in that Deadlock video for the Switch was how the Wii revolutionized with its' motion controls, it feels like they're doubling down on how much untapped market they'll manage to capitalize on again as they managed with the Wii.
And honestly, good luck with that. Their marketing is on point and maybe they will manage to make the Switch the next big thing everybody needs to have. Can't fault them for setting their expectations high, although personally I think the Switch will face a severe uphill battle against traditional tablets, its' very own 3DS line (until they cut off that one after ensuring enough 3DS demand translates into Switch demand) and even dedicated home consoles (to a small extent), so we'll see how they manage to position themselves on the market and if they do manage to accomplish those expectations.
I don't think it's impossible, but easy by any extent it won't be either.
Chinbo37
Member
Do they really think that honestly? Or is that just executive wishful thinking?
When the Wii came out smartphone gaming wasnt really a thing. Do you know how many kids I see playing games on their parents or their own smart phones? A lot.
Do you know how many kids I see using 3DS'? Not a lot.
Even if they killed the 3DS and combined game development for 1 platform, I dont see it selling anything close to that.
When the Wii came out smartphone gaming wasnt really a thing. Do you know how many kids I see playing games on their parents or their own smart phones? A lot.
Do you know how many kids I see using 3DS'? Not a lot.
Even if they killed the 3DS and combined game development for 1 platform, I dont see it selling anything close to that.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
I don't see how they can think this. The Switch hardware is the star of the show, not the games. That's the exact opposite of Wii, where Wii Sports had everyone clamoring to get a unit.
I don't see 1-2 Switch pulling nongamers people in.
I don't see 1-2 Switch pulling nongamers people in.
Bioshocker
Member
Kimishima has said they had the same expectations for Wii U. Of course they can wish for whatever they like, but it they're serious about this projection they have to manufacture consoles to meet that (expexted) demand. Which could put them in the same position as they were with the Wii U with tons of consoles in stock that they couldn't do much about without taking a serious loss.
Bioshocker
Member
And another thing, how will investors react now if Switch is closer to Gamecube than Wii?
Camp Freddie
Member
I watch a lot of kids TV with my son and there are lots of Nintendo ads. All of them are for the 3DS or very occasionally the Wii U. Switch is coming out in a month and it's not even mentioned.
Nintendo don't seem to be pushing it at all. My casual/non-gaming friends usually ask me about consoles that they've seen in the media. I had lots of smalltalk about "are you getting that new playstation?" and "what's the difference between the Xbox and Playstation?"
No-one appears to be aware that Nintendo have a new console coming out.
I just don't see it getting anywhere close to 3DS or Wii numbers. It's another Wii U. I think the hybrid-portable design idea is better than the Wii U, but Nintendo have dropped off people's radar.
Bioshocker
Member
Did Sony say they thought PS4 would do as well as the PS2?
Chinbo37
Member
The number one thing I took away from the Wii U is that without games, a lot of good games, a console is going to fail. The software drove people to buy a Wii. I know people that still have theirs and only use it to play bowling during family parties.
When my sister came to visit last time we played Wii Sports Island.
Wii U had great games but there just was no system seller like the Wii. Also huge droughts of good games. From what I see of the Switch the software side is more of the same. Tablet design looks cool, controller tech looks cool, but without that killer game to build hype out of the gate it isnt going to happen for them. Zelda isnt going to do with with casuals. And to get to Wii type numbers you need a lot of casuals to buy a Switch.
The perfect Dark
Banned
This is bonkers but I'd be happy if he's right.
Lynd7
Member
Nintendo did little for gamers? Nintendo put out some of their best output on the Wii overall. Galaxy 1 and 2 alone are better than pretty much their entire GameCube output.
SentryDown
Member
It looks like Nintendo execs have no clue why Wii was successful in the first place. Sure Switch will probably sell nicely but it doesn't nearly have all of the selling points of the Wii.
the_milkybar_kid
Member
I have a Switch pre-ordered and want the console to be successful but...
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
3DS is struggling to get to 70 million. The handheld industry has globally declined so far that the Vita is dead and the 3DS can't even match the PSP.
People acting like this is some bold/delusional prediction, but let's just look at some numbers...
Wii : 101 M
GB : 118 M GBA : 81 M DS : 154 M 3DS : 65 M
Nintendo's handhelds are historically their strongest business. If you combine the 3DS and the Wii U's base as well as manage to capture some lapsed Nintendo fans, former Wii owners, and some other gamers who are intrigued by the hook of the Switch, you can get a lot closer to that Wii number than it may seem looking at console sales alone.
But hey, if this was a console alone, Nintendo might be lucky to sell as well as the Xbox One.
So lets just magically add dozens of millions for shallow reasons to justify the 100 million claim? Gotcha.
thepenguin55
Member
Oh God this is what I was afraid of. I love the Switch and think it's great, but Nintendo does not have another Wii on their hands. Plain and simple.
Even then, the Wii's star burned bright for about 4 years and almost everyone has grown to have such a disdained for Wiimotes that the world collectively groaned at the intro of the Switch key note. Don't roll out motion controllers unless a VR headset is coming with it.
Either way, this console will not have the crazy mass appeal that the Wii or DS did. The best case scenario that I see is the Switch overtakes the Xbox One as the number 2 console this generation but even that seems a little optimistic.
Even then, the Wii's star burned bright for about 4 years and almost everyone has grown to have such a disdained for Wiimotes that the world collectively groaned at the intro of the Switch key note. Don't roll out motion controllers unless a VR headset is coming with it.
Either way, this console will not have the crazy mass appeal that the Wii or DS did. The best case scenario that I see is the Switch overtakes the Xbox One as the number 2 console this generation but even that seems a little optimistic.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Iwata thought wiiu would appeal to core gamers.
What about Japan only?
What about Japan only?
Tertullian
Member
If the Switch sells more units than the 3DS, I will film myself eating a live snake.
I won't really please don't quote this in five years