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Kimishima thinks the Switch has the potential to reach Wii-like sales
- Thread starter DNAbro
- Start date
Manmademan
Member
Which would put it roughly between 30 to 60 million units? 45 million or so as an average?
If this thing is actually meant to replace both nintendo's home and console devices, those are HORRIBLE numbers.
AdventureRacing
Member
Depends how much of this talk of a 3DS successor is just PR. If the switch truly is the combination of all of nintendos development teams and if the handheld they talk about is just a switch in different packaging I'd believe it. Especially if they can get a $199 version out in 2018.
If the switch turns out to essentially be a home console and there is a totally different successor to the 3DS then there's no chance. I'd say GC to N64 numbers would be more likely.
The N64 sold closer to 35 million I think and the 3DS will end up at 70+. Not that it really changes the numbers that much.
If the switch turns out to essentially be a home console and there is a totally different successor to the 3DS then there's no chance. I'd say GC to N64 numbers would be more likely.
The N64 sold closer to 35 million I think and the 3DS will end up at 70+. Not that it really changes the numbers that much.
He may be talking about the Switch , but I think Nintendo is looking to build this platform long term. They want their own iOS/Android type platform to build on.
As far as Switch goes I think it will sell as a console and a handheld. The console household will buy 1. The handheld household will buy 2. Depending on the extra apps it gets and how popular it becomes it might even sell as a basic tablet.
As far as Switch goes I think it will sell as a console and a handheld. The console household will buy 1. The handheld household will buy 2. Depending on the extra apps it gets and how popular it becomes it might even sell as a basic tablet.
Manmademan
Member
Not at $300 each before any games or accessories they won't. That's "599 US Dollars" territory.
This won't sell "like a handheld" until it hits the price point where it makes sense to buy multiple units for kids- IF it hits that point ever.
D.Lo
Member
yeah I have to laugh at those replies. Moronic.
Why you gotta bring us down like that?
ForsakenLotus
Member
It absolutely won't happen, but I wouldn't expect him to be realistic and say he just wants to focus on selling more than the GameCube era.
Constructive, insightful feedback
I don't see that. The price cut may happen but Nintendo can only achieve high numbers on the console market when they produce something like the Wii, something like the Hoolahoop and usually a company does something that big once. So their only chance is to unify console and handheld. And Nintendo does everything they can at the moment to not let this happen. The 3DS is alive and well, they support the 3DS and as long as the 3DS is alive, the PS Vita is alive too. That means the Switch is denied a market with 80 Million sold units of handhelds.
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
If there is one console to reach Wii like sales it is probably Switch. It's presence in the mainstream media and social networks is much higher than PS4/XOne or WiiU.
But I doubt that a console will be such a phenomenon ever, but I can see Switch sale very well.
But I doubt that a console will be such a phenomenon ever, but I can see Switch sale very well.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
Naaaaaaaah. But I do think it will do better than the U (anything else would be a disaster, of course). Might even beat the Gamecube. Possibly the N64, but that's where it starts feeling like a stretch to me.
The Wii U sure is cheap these days! Oh wait... (Hopefully the Switch hardware is easier to make more cost-effective over time.)
The Wii U sure is cheap these days! Oh wait... (Hopefully the Switch hardware is easier to make more cost-effective over time.)
Your post adds even less to the discussion.
Yes it will come down in price. Nintendo is usually quite generous with their price cuts for portable consoles.
PSFan
Member
Phenomenon? Both the PS1 and PS2 achieved over 100 million sales BEFORE the Wii even existed. And the Wii sold less than both. Even the PS3 despite the rough start, is still close to 100 million and the PS4 is more than halfway there.
Why does Nintendo get so much praise for doing in one gen, what another company has been doing since they've been in the console business?
The Wii really wasn't that special.
It was very special in that it really expanded the gaming audience. Bear in mind, Sony achieved making the PS2 accessible to a wider audience too - but mostly in Europe, where Eyetoy and SingStar were huge successes and a lot of families had those in their homes.
Obviously, looking at the Switch lineup and price, that's not really gonna happen with that system anytime soon.
LordRaptor
Member
Look at the timeframes involved and the level of developer support and figure it out
PSFan
Member
What about the timeframes? You mean how in four gens Sony has sold far more home consoles than Nintendo has in six gens?
But it didn't really. That audience was gone once smartphones took off. And doesn't constantly selling around 100 million consoles gen after gen constitute a more meaningful expansion? It looks more like they still stuck around for the next console. So yeah, I still don't think the Wii was that special.
LordRaptor
Member
I mean that selling 100 million in 5 years is more impressive than selling 100 million in 10 by most standards.
You seem to just want to say Sony are way better than Nintendo and always have been though, so sure, whatever.
Well, it was special for having a that different audience. It's also very special for losing that audience so quickly.
Business lecture still cites Wii as a prime example of blue ocean strategy. Yet, what came after Wii is an even greater lesson to business leaders.
PSFan
Member
What are you talking about? In 10 years the PS2 sold around 160 million which is even more than the DS. So the PS1 and PS2 sold 100 million in around the same timeframe as the Wii.
You seem to want to praise Nintendo as the only company who's impressive for selling so many consoles though, so sure, whatever.
yurinka
Member
Let's hope I'm wrong, but I think it will be way lower, 60-80M max.
And this considering they kill 3DS in a year or so, moving all their 1st/2nd party gamedev efforts to Switch and get a way better 3rd party support than in WiiU thanks to the integration with the portable games (and maybe with Nintendo mobile games too).
And this considering they kill 3DS in a year or so, moving all their 1st/2nd party gamedev efforts to Switch and get a way better 3rd party support than in WiiU thanks to the integration with the portable games (and maybe with Nintendo mobile games too).
LordRaptor
Member
yurinka
Member
iPhone is a "small" part of the smartphone market:This is the reason I don't think you can try to target casual gamers as your core market audience.
Iphone sales (Keeps on track generally with smartphones sales)
I could be wrong though.
We should also add tablets sales to this market:
But almost all markets are growing (even if they market share shrink), and will continue to grow. Mobile & tablets stole casual gaming to consoles but only affected portable sales, not home consoles:
Does it really matter how many units you sold without looking at how much money you made doing so?
Ps1 and ps2 sold similarly to what the wii and ds sold, respectively. However, nintendo made a ridiculous amount of money with those, and sony didn't. The ps3 sold almost 100 million, yet it lost sony a huge amount of money before starting to make money again. From what i remember, both ps1 and ps2 didn't recoup the loses of their first years until later in their lifespans, unlike ds and wii which made money from the begining, and when sony did make money, it was a lot less. The ps4 is looking to be sony's firt console that's going to change that.
The wii was a much bigger achievement because, not only it sold a lot, quickly, it was also extremely profitable.
You could say that sony had additional interests with their consoles like expanding the dvd with the ps2 and bluray wih the ps3, sure.
D.Lo
Member
Look up the sales history, you are completely wrong. PS1 took nine years to hit 100 million. After five years it had sold around 60-65 million. Over 30% of PS1 consoles were sold as budget machines after the PS2 launched.
PS2 had sold about 75-80 million after five years. It sold about 40 million as a budget machine after the PS3 launched.
A huge chunk of PS1/PS2 consoles sold as budget machines, maintained by third parties, after their successor launched. Luxuries the Wii didn't have. In its natural 'main console' life it easily outsold what PS1 and PS2 did in their comparable periods, it sold much faster than either.
Sony didn't do it 'gen after gen'. The PS3 was a financial disaster that lost them four billion dollars. So they lost $50 for every single one they got into a home, net. They literally bought their 'sales' last generation. Hardly 'continued consistent success'.
boneyjangles
Member
Potential - maybe not so much for doing Wii hardware numbers exactly, but for selling well and having a great software library and digital store enticing people to pick up many more titles than Wii owners did.
I think there is a big market for a powerful dedicated gaming tablet with a good software library. I see hints everywhere...
- I think people in general will take convenience over any other feature.
- I'm far more prone to play games on a tablet personally.
- I know people who play PS4 mostly on their laptop via local wifi streaming because their family members are using the TV.
- laptops have decimated desktop PC's in terms of sales once they got 'good enough'.
- is the switch now 'good enough' (1TF vs XBone's 1.3TF) that it makes no difference except a few lines of resolution to most people?
Just don't fuck up third party developers Nintendo, and you could be onto a winner.
I think there is a big market for a powerful dedicated gaming tablet with a good software library. I see hints everywhere...
- I think people in general will take convenience over any other feature.
- I'm far more prone to play games on a tablet personally.
- I know people who play PS4 mostly on their laptop via local wifi streaming because their family members are using the TV.
- laptops have decimated desktop PC's in terms of sales once they got 'good enough'.
- is the switch now 'good enough' (1TF vs XBone's 1.3TF) that it makes no difference except a few lines of resolution to most people?
Just don't fuck up third party developers Nintendo, and you could be onto a winner.
That is wrong. It is more like 13 or 14 years to reach that 157 million figure for the PS2 and for the PS1 it took ten years to reach that 102 million figure....
The Last One
Member
So that's why the song playing during the Super Bowl commercial is called Believer.
yurinka
Member
It may be more impressive, but they only achieved it once, while the others did it consistently with all their consoles. So it's more likely that if someone achieves it again is the ones who always achieved it.
In 3 years time, if its price drops under 150$ and the system grows a good library of games then maybe it will do great, but Wii numbers no way.
It could be possible to reach Wii numbers, only if they killed the 3ds and Nintendo brought all its games library and full development attention to the switch, thus migrate 3ds users to the switch, but this is not happening.
Personaly I look at the switch as an upgrade to my ps vita (i travel a lot), but not in this price range and with no games to interest me (except zelda and Mario).
Do we know if preorders are sold out yet?
It could be possible to reach Wii numbers, only if they killed the 3ds and Nintendo brought all its games library and full development attention to the switch, thus migrate 3ds users to the switch, but this is not happening.
Personaly I look at the switch as an upgrade to my ps vita (i travel a lot), but not in this price range and with no games to interest me (except zelda and Mario).
Do we know if preorders are sold out yet?
Skittzo0413
Member
Twice, considering the DS.
The Switch has a bit more in common with the DS from my perspective anyway, in pretty much everything but price. It completely depends on how quickly they can get the price down or if a Switch lite for $200 is coming within the next few years, but I can definitely see this being a resounding success starting in years 2-3.
Obviously the price needs to come down for it to reach Wii numbers, and I'm confident it will come down.
Sigh... yes, this is exactly what's happening. Nintendo has announced 8 full retail first party games coming to the Switch between March and December of this year, and it always announces more at E3, so expect at least 10. That's over one full title a month coming to a single console, and that's not something Nintendo has been able to achieve before on an HD system. This wouldn't be possible if they hadn't combined teams to focus on the Switch.
You guys need to stop falling for PR, this is 100% the "third pillar" all over again.
TannerDemoz
Member
Plenty of preorders left in the UK everywhere.
Isn't it's presence higher because it's about to release soon.
Can it sustain it though?
LordRaptor
Member
The Xbox brand is consistently super successful? Really?
I don't know why people underestimate Nintendo. They've "lightninged in a bottle" with legitimate "cultural phenomenons" more than once.
They did it with the original NES.
They did it with the original Gameboy.
They did it with the DS.
They did it with the Wii.
Shit, they did it only a few months ago with Pokemon Go.
I have no idea how the Switch will do.
General feelings towards it so far seem to be pretty positive.
I do know its pretty foolish to think Nintendo are one hit wonders, or just happen to repeatedly get lucky.
Skittzo0413
Member
It's pretty ironic that people think that and Nintendo literally translates to "leave luck to heaven"
Dee Dah Dave
Member
10 mil - core Nintendo fans who auto buy anything
40 mil - handheld customers. (futher decrease in that market due to smart devices)
10 mil - PS / Xbox gamers who buy the Switch as a secondary console
= ~60 mil lifetime best case. Maybe a bit more if they really nail it.
That's my prediction!
40 mil - handheld customers. (futher decrease in that market due to smart devices)
10 mil - PS / Xbox gamers who buy the Switch as a secondary console
= ~60 mil lifetime best case. Maybe a bit more if they really nail it.
That's my prediction!
PSFan
Member
Repeatedly? They only got lucky with the Wii and DS. Both console and handheld sales have been constantly dwindling otherwise. Each gen has sold less than the previous gen. The Wii U and 3DS both went right back to that trend after the Wii/DS era was over.
Skittzo0413
Member
Again with the "got lucky". Why is the Nintendo Wii constantly used in marketing courses as an excellent example of a blue ocean strategy? Nothing about the Wii or the DS strategy was luck, all you really have to do is look at Iwata's statements about his strategy leading up to those launches.
No one would argue that the Wii U and 3DS weren't dropoffs from there, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the Wii or DS successes being "lucky". It has far more to do with Nintendo being arrogant and far too conservative with their massive, massive profits earned during the Wii and DS eras.
StereoVsn
Member
This seems reasonable actually. Probably even a bit on the positive side since I bet there is a huge cross between core Nintendo fans and handheld customers.
If Nintendo really figures out how to sell Switch as a family entertainment console and drops price, adds a pack in game, and drops accessories pricing, maybe it can do more.
LordRaptor
Member
Take out Sony getting lucky with the PS2 and you see the same trend in Sony hardware.
Take out MS getting lucky with the X360 and you see the same trend in MS hardware.
I guess we better all get used to an all mobile future because trends say consoles are doooooooomed
yes im being facetious
If you like playing good games then the industry is a better place with a successful Nintendo, but 100m seems unlikely
I think if they can sell 40m systems then the Switch will be a success
They really should have shut up about the 3DS maybe getting a successor, as they need people to believe this console will get all the sequels to the handheld games (mainly Pokémon and Monster Hunter) otherwise why wouldn't people who mainly like Nintendo's handheld output sit tight and wait for the 4DS?
If they throw all their teams and support behind the Switch for 3/4 years, they'll do fine, if they hedge their bets and make a new handheld, then I think the Switch will be their last "console"
I think if they can sell 40m systems then the Switch will be a success
They really should have shut up about the 3DS maybe getting a successor, as they need people to believe this console will get all the sequels to the handheld games (mainly Pokémon and Monster Hunter) otherwise why wouldn't people who mainly like Nintendo's handheld output sit tight and wait for the 4DS?
If they throw all their teams and support behind the Switch for 3/4 years, they'll do fine, if they hedge their bets and make a new handheld, then I think the Switch will be their last "console"
GregLombardi
Member
They dont. Or at least they didnt throughout this gen. Wii U proved that in spades.