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Kimishima thinks the Switch has the potential to reach Wii-like sales

Netflix may or may not come depending on what Netflix considers a priority, but you ignored my larger point which is that without access to the IOS app store or google play, ANY device is dead in the water as a portable device.

Those storefronts aren't "nice to haves" they're the bare minimum expectation, as Microsoft found out when trying to sell customers on windows phone.

Without those, you can't sell a device as any kind of portable replacement for a phone or tablet.

Then good news, nobody is trying to sell it solely as a tablet replacement. It's just that adding some table-like functionality (like Netflix, web browser, media apps) will go a long way to add some more value to this product. It's not an all or nothing game.

"He expects the Switch to sell about as well as the Wii."
What bubble does nintendo live in?

Just FYI the title was edited for a reason, that translation was incorrect. He said he thinks it has the potential to sell like the Wii.
 
Then good news, nobody is trying to sell it solely as a tablet replacement. It's just that adding some table-like functionality (like Netflix, web browser, media apps) will go a long way to add some more value to this product. It's not an all or nothing game.



Just FYI the title was edited for a reason, that translation was incorrect. He said he thinks it has the potential to sell like the Wii.

Ah I was wondering why there was a disparity between the title and the OP.
 
Then good news, nobody is trying to sell it solely as a tablet replacement. It's just that adding some table-like functionality (like Netflix, web browser, media apps) will go a long way to add some more value to this product. It's not an all or nothing game.

As I said, if it can't replace a phone or tablet (and phablets are at the point where the line is blurred here) then Nintendo needs to make a pitch to the casual market why spending $300 to carry around a switch IN ADDITION TO the portable devices they have is a good idea.

As far as I can see they haven't done that, and it's questionable they can at all at the price point Nintendo is asking.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
As I said, if it can't replace a phone or tablet (and phablets are at the point where the line is blurred here) then Nintendo needs to make a pitch to the casual market why spending $300 to carry around a switch IN ADDITION TO the portable devices they have is a good idea.

As far as I can see they haven't done that, and it's questionable they can at all at the price point Nintendo is asking.
They are more than 150 millions active gamers. Switch needs to appeal to them first, with great games they can't play elsewhere (Nintendo games), they can play better on it (indie games with HD Rumble) and games they love they can play anywhere/anytime (3rd party titles such as NBA2K). Local multiplayer will help. The value proposition is excellent, so there is hope.
 
As I said, if it can't replace a phone or tablet (and phablets are at the point where the line is blurred here) then Nintendo needs to make a pitch to the casual market why spending $300 to carry around a switch IN ADDITION TO the portable devices they have is a good idea.

As far as I can see they haven't done that, and it's questionable they can at all at the price point Nintendo is asking.

It's definitely strange, but their mobile apps seem to point to their strategy for this scenario. Rather than have the Switch replace a mobile device, they seem to want it to be a companion. That'll have a very clear downside for people who want things like voice chat built directly into the console, but I'm curious to see how it pans out for them.
 

Waji

Member
Ok, bring it on ! Neither I believe it or not, just so your best Nintendo.
But don't say, JUST before : "We consider a future for the 3ds, blah blah", that's a very bad move.
Even if it's fake, it doesn't send the right message.

For now I want to believe in this system. It really feels like it can do far greater than what a lot of people think.
 
As I said, if it can't replace a phone or tablet (and phablets are at the point where the line is blurred here) then Nintendo needs to make a pitch to the casual market why spending $300 to carry around a switch IN ADDITION TO the portable devices they have is a good idea.

As far as I can see they haven't done that, and it's questionable they can at all at the price point Nintendo is asking.

And I'm disagreeing with this all or nothing thinking that you seem to have. First off, they haven't even begun an ad campaign so it's no wonder they haven't convinced the casual market of anything. Second, I don't think there is anything difficult about convincing people to carry around a second device. People do that with tablets all the time- they have all of the same apps as their tablet on their smartphone, yet they have the ability to carry around two devices somehow. It isn't that difficult of a proposition.

And the other assumption you seem to be making is that Nintendo needs to capture that casual market in the same way they did with the Wii in order to sell like the Wii, which I would argue isn't the case. I think the Switch's potential is more akin to the DS, a device that was incredibly easy to develop for, had an insane amount of software, was cheap enough (eventually) for households to own 2-3, and had a number of hardware revisions. The only difference is that this is an HD device which is actually far closer in power to competing hardware than the Wii was, so it's very possible to eventually get AAA ports in addition to all of the first party and Japanese software coming.

Ok, bring it on ! Neither I believe it or not, just so your best Nintendo.
But don't say, JUST before : "We consider a future for the 3ds, blah blah", that's a very bad move.
Even if it's fake, it doesn't send the right message.

For now I want to believe in this system. It really feels like it can do far greater than what a lot of people think.

They didn't say that, it was a poor relay from a transcript of an answer. They said that they understand the Switch doesn't necessarily appeal to the same market that the 3DS did due to it being larger and heavier, and that they are always thinking about future hardware. Nothing about a 3DS successor whatsoever.
 
Only way I see this happening is if 'switch' is like ~10 different hardware iterations that last 15 years (switch, switch mini, switch tv, switch pro, Switch plus, switch advance, etc etc) and they all share the same 'library' and 'ecosystem' and so nintendo classifies them all as 'switch' hardware sales.

This is exactly what is going to happen.

Anyone not expecting an upgraded switch and lots of different add-ons and accessories in in for a surprise. This is a 10 year platform in the making, like Android or Windows 10.
 

13ruce

Banned
Ok, bring it on ! Neither I believe it or not, just so your best Nintendo.
But don't say, JUST before : "We consider a future for the 3ds, blah blah", that's a very bad move.
Even if it's fake, it doesn't send the right message.

For now I want to believe in this system. It really feels like it can do far greater than what a lot of people think.

A future for a 240p device when 4k phones are a standard soon lol.

HD ready is the bar minumum a handheld gaming device should have now.
 

Kintaco

Member
This is just proof that Nintendo higher ups have totally lost their minds. The half baked presentation, the insane accessory prices, it all makes sense now!
 
They are more than 150 millions active gamers. Switch needs to appeal to them first, with great games they can't play elsewhere (Nintendo games), they can play better on it (indie games with HD Rumble) and games they love they can play anywhere/anytime (3rd party titles such as NBA2K). Local multiplayer will help. The value proposition is excellent, so there is hope.

150 million active gamers on what platform?

PC gamers are being served quite well by steam. The switch isn't really for them.

Core console gamers have been buying PS4 and Xbox One for years now. Both of these platforms are offering superior performance, larger existing libraries, more robust online, and much better third party support than switch at a lower price point.

Casual gamers as well as all of the above all own smart phones which offer simple time wasters and party games for $0 to $5. Savvy gamers can even emulate Nintendo's back catalogue with these (at least up to the N64, not sure about GC).

The switch needs to convince a market that isn't being served by any of these things that it's offering an an experience they can't get from any of the above...and it's doing it at a price point that many view as outside of "casual purchase" territory.

Outside of those who are deep into Nintendo's ecosystem and demanding Mario and Zelda I'm not convinced these gamers exist.
 

WolfStark

Member
Regarding the bolded: Of course they have to say that. The 3DS is the only guaranteed revenue stream they have in their hardware business, and they won't be severing ties with it while they're still uncertain about how the Switch will do. If they do cut the 3DS off and the Switch turns out to be in a bad place, they've got nothing to fall back on.

It's obvious that most development resources have been shifted away from the 3DS. It's not where their focus is anymore, and unless the Switch is a major bomb, that won't be changing anytime soon. Barring a total disaster, I don't expect to see the 3DS lasting much longer than early-to-mid 2018, at which point the Switch will be full steam ahead.

And I can't envision any universe where the Switch only sells 10M-15M units. That's Wii U levels of bad, and everything about its public perception has been much better than the Wii U. The marketing, the branding, the concept, the hardware build, the first party launch lineup, the positive word of mouth, and so on.

Why has Nintendo to say that? It makes no sense, especially since they proof that they continue to support by producing new games for the 3DS. How should the Switch get good numbers, when the Switch is not the successor to the 3DS? The Switch can't get into a bad place by being the next Nintendo handheld but it can get into a bad place because Nintendo doesn't make the platform attractive. At the moment, the Switch is in a worse state then the Wii U was. It's a Nintendo console and they're not selling good since the N64 but apart from the last consoles, the price is tremendously higher. There are only two things where Nintendo can succeed, on the handheld market and an additional benefit that creates a huge demand from non-gamers. The Switch has neither at the moment.

The marketing is the usual Nintendo fun marketing, there is nothing that makes Nintendo looking different. i would even they the marketing is pretty bad, because Nintendo is still unable to communicate and interact with their potential costumers (which on the other hand is the usual Nintendo marketing)

The branding is okay.

The concept is perfect and the only reasonable option in my eyes but Nintendo doesn't follow the concept. They don't cut ties to the 3DS, they make a hybrid but they are not selling it as a hybrid. The Switch is destined to fail, if it does not unify both of Nintendos main markets.

The hardware built is okay but nothing special.

The lineup isn't great, there isn't that much and most of the games are old ports, either from other platforms or the Wii U. Even Zelda is port. And 1-2-Switch is basically a demo.

The positive perception only exist in the Nintendo world, where everyting that Nintendo does is defended or praised. Outside of the Nintendo cloud it's pretty different and there isn't much positive said about Nintendo or the Switch. And news like these about a presidant having delusional sale ideas in their mind do their part. Everything above Wii U at the moment is unrealistic and Wii sales are only possible if a natural desaster destroys Sony, Microsoft and all their consoles.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
150 million active gamers on what platform?

PC gamers are being served quite well by steam. The switch isn't really for them.

Core console gamers have been buying PS4 and Xbox One for years now. Both of these platforms are offering superior performance, larger existing libraries, more robust online, and much better third party support than switch at a lower price point.

Casual gamers as well as all of the above all own smart phones which offer simple time wasters and party games for $0 to $5. Savvy gamers can even emulate Nintendo's back catalogue with these (at least up to the N64, not sure about GC).

The switch needs to convince a market that isn't being served by any of these things that it's offering an an experience they can't get from any of the above...and it's doing it at a price point that many view as outside of "casual purchase" territory.

Outside of those who are deep into Nintendo's ecosystem and demanding Mario and Zelda I'm not convinced these gamers exist.
My points still stand. Of course console warriors won't touch a Switch, because Nintendo, and there are few dozen millions of them if I had to guess. But the rest of gamers can definitely see value in the motivations I described. Switch can become really good in little time. There's no denying it offers something unique, beyond the living room.
 
150 million active gamers on what platform?

PC gamers are being served quite well by steam. The switch isn't really for them.

Core console gamers have been buying PS4 and Xbox One for years now. Both of these platforms are offering superior performance, larger existing libraries, more robust online, and much better third party support than switch at a lower price point.

Casual gamers as well as all of the above all own smart phones which offer simple time wasters and party games for $0 to $5. Savvy gamers can even emulate Nintendo's back catalogue with these (at least up to the N64, not sure about GC).

The switch needs to convince a market that isn't being served by any of these things that it's offering an an experience they can't get from any of the above...and it's doing it at a price point that many view as outside of "casual purchase" territory.

Outside of those who are deep into Nintendo's ecosystem and demanding Mario and Zelda I'm not convinced these gamers exist.

Again I think your problem is you're thinking in black and white absolutes, acting like all of these groups are monoliths who have to be completely wooed or else none of them will buy the console. PC gamers for instance are far more likely to buy Nintendo hardware than Sony or MS because it has the least overlap in software. I know, I'm a PC gamer who only buys Nintendo consoles.

And you're forgetting the close to 70 million 3DS owners.
 
D

Deleted member 752119

Unconfirmed Member
The switch needs to convince a market that isn't being served by any of these things that it's offering an an experience they can't get from any of the above...and it's doing it at a price point that many view as outside of "casual purchase" territory.

Outside of those who are deep into Nintendo's ecosystem and demanding Mario and Zelda I'm not convinced these gamers exist.

Well, also the people who like dedicated portables. The 3DS and Vita owners in other words. That still probably what, 60 some million (trying to guesstimate down a bit for people who own both/multiple 3DS models)? It will decline more since portables have been declining for years with the rise of mobile, but I think it's pretty easy to see them getting to at least 40-50 million lifetime with just their fans and the portable fans that stick around. Then tack on however many core gamers not in one of those groups who end up grabbing one to complement their main platform(s). So I see 50-60 million likely as I said above, possibly more if they put out cheaper portable/console only SKUs over time to make it a cheaper impulse purchase as a complementary platform.
 
150 million active gamers on what platform?

PC gamers are being served quite well by steam. The switch isn't really for them.

Core console gamers have been buying PS4 and Xbox One for years now. Both of these platforms are offering superior performance, larger existing libraries, more robust online, and much better third party support than switch at a lower price point.

Casual gamers as well as all of the above all own smart phones which offer simple time wasters and party games for $0 to $5. Savvy gamers can even emulate Nintendo's back catalogue with these (at least up to the N64, not sure about GC).

The switch needs to convince a market that isn't being served by any of these things that it's offering an an experience they can't get from any of the above...and it's doing it at a price point that many view as outside of "casual purchase" territory.

Outside of those who are deep into Nintendo's ecosystem and demanding Mario and Zelda I'm not convinced these gamers exist.

Ah yes... Anecdotal evidence does seem to suggest that the Switch appeals to absolutely no one. Nintendo should have asked Gaf first before green-lighting the idea.

So much hate over Nintendo. I don't see what's there to hate when he says it has the potential. Ok it's cool and move on.

Stop acting like you know everything because you don't. You're driven by Nintendo hate.

I'll agree with you in that I think some people are just pre-determined to hate certain things, and that's their prerogative. But you should also keep in mind that this is a forum and as such, we're driven by discussion. If we all just universally agreed on something, what would we even talk about on here?

"Man, Nintendo sure is great huh?"
- "You betcha! I really like their stuff!"
"Me too."
- Le Fin.
 
So much hate over Nintendo. I don't see what's there to hate when he says it has the potential. Ok it's cool and move on.

Stop acting like you know everything because you don't. You're driven by Nintendo hate.
 

Apathy

Member
So much hate over Nintendo. I don't see what's there to hate when he says it has the potential. Ok it's cool and move on.

Stop acting like you know everything because you don't. You're driven by Nintendo hate.

"Please leave poor innocent Nintendo alone! leave them alone!"
 

PSFan

Member
Again I think your problem is you're thinking in black and white absolutes, acting like all of these groups are monoliths who have to be completely wooed or else none of them will buy the console. PC gamers for instance are far more likely to buy Nintendo hardware than Sony or MS because it has the least overlap in software. I know, I'm a PC gamer who only buys Nintendo consoles.

And you're forgetting the close to 70 million 3DS owners.

There aren't close to 70 million 3DS owners. You need to take into account that a lot of people buy multiple 3DS'. Be it new iterations, such as XL or n3DS or Limited Editions. That accounts for more than you think.
 
There aren't close to 70 million 3DS owners. You need to take into account that a lot of people buy multiple 3DS'. Be it new iterations, such as XL or n3DS or Limited Editions. That accounts for more than you think.

Eh, I don't know if that number is anywhere near as big as you think it is. It would surprise me greatly if it's even as high as 5 million.

But yeah you're right, I should have said the owners of close to 70 million 3DS's.
 
I seriously doubt anyone at Nintendo believes Switch sales will shoot up as quickly as Wii's did.

Since they're looking at Switch as a re-positioning for the future, they're likely looking at a longer lifespan (8-10 years minimum) and the fact that this is the first opportunity Nintendo has ever had to release a gaming handheld with zero outside competition and thinking "yeah, we think we could make it to 100 million again."
 

Schnozberry

Member
There aren't close to 70 million 3DS owners. You need to take into account that a lot of people buy multiple 3DS'. Be it new iterations, such as XL or n3DS or Limited Editions. That accounts for more than you think.

There is no data to prove your assertion. Collectors are a small fraction of any fanbase. If anything more than 70 million people have probably owned a 3DS at one time or another, because the second hand market in games is huge. Gamestop alone sells almost 9 billion worth of hardware and software every year, and almost 30% of it is used according to their financials.
 

4Tran

Member
As I said, if it can't replace a phone or tablet (and phablets are at the point where the line is blurred here) then Nintendo needs to make a pitch to the casual market why spending $300 to carry around a switch IN ADDITION TO the portable devices they have is a good idea.

As far as I can see they haven't done that, and it's questionable they can at all at the price point Nintendo is asking.
On the one hand consoles don't really need to appeal to the mass market until they hit mass market price points under $200. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the Switch has much appeal outside of the first 4 million or so early adopter base, especially at a $300 price point. I think that a lot is going to ride on whether Nintendo can drop the price quickly and the uptake trajectory beyond the first couple of months of release.
 

Ricky 7

Member
Oh yeah definitely, I can see it killing the PS4 and putting Sony out of business. That's being conservative though who knows how well this thing can actually do? Might end up dethroning Apple and making Nintendo the most valuable company in the world.
 

PSFan

Member
On the one hand consoles don't really need to appeal to the mass market until they hit mass market price points under $200. On the other hand, it's hard to see how the Switch has much appeal outside of the first 4 million or so early adopter base, especially at a $300 price point. I think that a lot is going to ride on whether Nintendo can drop the price quickly and the uptake trajectory beyond the first couple of months of release.

That brings up another good point. Re-buyers count for a lot of sales too. People that get a device at launch, sell it shortly after and then buy a new one later when more games are out. I remember reading about a rash of 3DS returns in Japan shortly after it launched and retailers had shelves full of used 3DS'.
 

Waji

Member
They didn't say that, it was a poor relay from a transcript of an answer. They said that they understand the Switch doesn't necessarily appeal to the same market that the 3DS did due to it being larger and heavier, and that they are always thinking about future hardware. Nothing about a 3DS successor whatsoever.
I was actually not really quoting but more like referencing this "other market" a if the Switch wasn't a good handheld market.
Anyway you're right to correct me so it's more accurate.

But I don't see how the Switch wouldn't appeal to the same market.
I guess I probably don't undertand the 3ds people then because the price doesn't seem that away and as long as they release games people like on handheld, I don't see how it couldn't work.
 

Lothars

Member
So much hate over Nintendo. I don't see what's there to hate when he says it has the potential. Ok it's cool and move on.

Stop acting like you know everything because you don't. You're driven by Nintendo hate.
Nintendo deserves all the hate they get over the switch because of the decisions they made from the price to the lack of apps to how it seems they are not giving the switch the full support especially if it is going to replace the handheld and console than they need to do it and not just have it replace the WII-U.

I don't have much faith in them at the moment because of past history plus them saying they think it will hit Wii sales shows a certain level of ignorance on why the Wii was as successful as it was.
 
I was actually not really quoting but more like referencing this "other market" a if the Switch wasn't a good handheld market.
Anyway you're right to correct me so it's more accurate.

But I don't see how the Switch wouldn't appeal to the same market.
I guess I probably don't undertand the 3ds people then because the price doesn't seem that away and as long as they release games people like on handheld, I don't see how it couldn't work.

I think it's a pretty simple situation- the Switch is larger and heavier than even the 3DSXL was, so it naturally seems a bit less portable. If people want a portable they can fit in a pocket, the Switch won't be able to do that easily.

Which is why I think it's very likely we'll see a Switch Lite with the exact same software library in 2 years or so.

Nintendo deserves all the hate they get over the switch because of the decisions they made from the price to the lack of apps to how it seems they are not giving the switch the full support especially if it is going to replace the handheld and console than they need to do it and not just have it replace the WII-U.

I don't have much faith in them at the moment because of past history plus them saying they think it will hit Wii sales shows a certain level of ignorance on why the Wii was as successful as it was.

First off, seriously guys- you are putting far too much weight into PR comments. Look at the actual evidence- Nintendo has 9 first party titles already announced for the Switch between March and December, which is more than they had on the Wii U and 3DS combined- therefore we already have clear evidence of this combined output.

Second, read the title of this thread, it was edited for a reason. Kimishima thinks this has the potential to sell like the Wii, he doesn't expect it. Again Dr. Toto's tweets over the past few days have been astoundingly misleading.
 
If it can become the majority of gamers' primary console, yeah it could. But it's only going to do that if it has a lot of games. It's needs sports games, fps, arpgs, etc. If it's just a 'Nintendo box' it will be passed over by a lot of people.

Personally I don't see it happening. I think Nintendo has no idea how to make a current gen console. Online infrastructure is the biggest deal right now. Xbl and ps+ thrive because a lot of gamers love to play with their friends. Peer pressure is one of the best ways to sell consoles and games. Call of duty isn't popular because it's the best game, it's popular because everyone wants to play together and people know their friends are buying it.

Every Co op Nintendo game should have online. I would have bought Super Mario 3d World if it had it. I might have been able to convince some of my friends to buy a Wii U and play pikmin 3 with me if it has online Co op.
 

illadelph

Member
I doubt any console reaches those types of numbers ever again. The market is too different; phones changed everything.

That said, Switch should do just peachy.
 

Waji

Member
I think it's a pretty simple situation- the Switch is larger and heavier than even the 3DSXL was, so it naturally seems a bit less portable. If people want a portable they can fit in a pocket, the Switch won't be able to do that easily.

Which is why I think it's very likely we'll see a Switch Lite with the exact same software library in 2 years or so.
I'm not the complaining kind so I think I could just remove the joycons so the screen gets in my pocket. From the comments people around gave me it seemed quite possible.

But I completely agree with you and think it would be ok to have a tinier one if it's needed in the market. I wouldn't see the point of anything else not capable of running Switch games.
 

brad-t

Member
I think it's a pretty simple situation- the Switch is larger and heavier than even the 3DSXL was, so it naturally seems a bit less portable. If people want a portable they can fit in a pocket, the Switch won't be able to do that easily.

I think it's worth asking if this is what people want in a world where smartphones exist. I also feel like the Switch is asking that question as well.

I would personally rather a slightly less portable device that's ideal for long playtimes. If I can't play the game for at least 15 minutes straight I'm probably not going to bother with it at all. We'll see if it resonates with the broader market soon enough!
 

hiim_haz

Banned
That's ambitious.

While I don't think they'll reach Wii level of sales, it's good to see them trying to aim high. I hope the Switch is a success for them.
 

ianpm31

Member
well, did anyone expect the Ps4 to be basically the new Ps2

Ps1 had 100 million +, Ps2 150 million +, PS3 80 million +, and now Ps4 is pacing ahead of Ps2 sales so it's most likely a sure fire 100 million + so potentially 3/4 of Sony's consoles will break the 100 million barrier. It's really business as usual because other than the PS3 in which they made obvious mistakes it seems like they learned from it. Sony really dominates when it comes to home consoles
 
The answers here in this thread are as expected. I personally wouldn't doubt the possibility, they have been doing a great job in terms of marketing and bringing in lots of titles to the Switch.
 

theBmZ

Member
Yeah...no.
giphy.gif
 

catbrush

Member
Switch's portable nature, focus on local multiplayer, ability to be operated without a TV, and possible novelty factor of HD rumble makes me think interest could spread rapidly.

Even though there's no pack-in Wii Sports, there's nothing stopping indie developers from making a flood of compelling games that utilize the joycons to create novel experiences. It's going to be the iOS app store gold rush all over again.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Even though there's no pack-in Wii Sports, there's nothing stopping indie developers from making a flood of compelling games that utilize the joycons to create novel experiences. It's going to be the iOS app store gold rush all over again.
A better comparison would be to look at what indie devs do with VR, on much more limited userbase than Switch will have day one.
 
Is it ? From the sales perspective ?
throughout the past 3 years, the comparisons I've seen people make are all to the Ps2, so yes, I would say so.
Ps1 had 100 million +, Ps2 150 million +, PS3 80 million +, and now Ps4 is pacing ahead of Ps2 sales so it's most likely a sure fire 100 million + so potentially 3/4 of Sony's consoles will break the 100 million barrier. It's really business as usual because other than the PS3 in which they made obvious mistakes it seems like they learned from it. Sony really dominates when it comes to home consoles
I said it is basically the new Ps2. But don't forget, even Sony themselves did not expect the Ps4 to be as successful as it was right at launch and then on out.
 
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