Support NeoGAF

[Woo-Fu]

I haven't seen a lot of Switch marketing but in what I have seen the Switch doesn't have the sort of hook that will give it the same mainstream appeal the Wii had.

To be fair, I didn't see it in the Wii advertising until it was already taking off, so who knows?

 

[Waji]

The switch will obviously get a price cut, but it's important to point out that Nintendo was hilariously overcharging for what the 3DS was in 2011. Sony launched the Vita not much later for the exact same price and the Vita utterly, totally, completely smokes the 3DS from a hardware standpoint.

The 3DS was cheap, outdated hardware when it hit store shelves and Nintendo built a huge margin into it. This is absolutely NOT the case with the switch. While I wouldn't call it top tier, there doesn't appear to be a massive margin built into it as there was with the 3DS: it's 300 dollars because that's what this thing costs to sell. The Nvidia shield tablet is older but similar hardware with a smaller screen, no dock or joycons and it's still selling for $200 3 years after launch.

The ridiculous pricing on the shield accessories seems to back this up. There should be no reason for ludicrous prices on controllers and extra docks if the margin was there on the system to begin with. A $50 price cut? I can see that. But imagining a 3DS level cut within the first 12 months isn't realistic.

I completely agree. The Switch won't be found at 200$ before a very... very long time.
The best it could achieve is a really nice bundle during some sales in shops where it goes to that level, but even that will take time and being at the right place at the right time.

 

[JetSetRadio]

Well, marking down forecasts isn't new to them, he'll do just fine.

 

[Anteater]

well it's possible

i myself can't tell the market myself

 

[Buggy Loop]

Its google trends, not exactly a super scientific approach, but it's the only data we have on the thirst to get a switch.

Compared with WiiU, PS4 and Xbox one

https://youtu.be/qabW0bN-ihE?t=1m18s

It does not represent future sales or anything, but, it cannot be bad news? (although thisisneogaf.gif).

 

[hotcyder]

It's not impossible. Nintendo is the best developer on the planet. It's all up to Nintendo and it's business decisions. The company has to back that claim up at E3 with at least 20 games coming to the Switch that are the equivalent of Zelda:BTOW.

Good Luck with that bet

 

[brad-t]

It looks to be an amazing Zelda game. It doesn't seem likely to sell Switches to people who aren't already Zelda/Nintendo fans. I think even Nintendo knows this which is why it's the only major game at launch. It will get the diehard early adopters on board, and they can roll out Splatoon, Mario etc later to expand once that market is tapped.

I think this is true as well. But I also think that Breath of the Wild is garnering a ton of attention from lapsed gamers or people who haven't owned a Nintendo console in a few generations. At least in my own office and personal circle of friends :')

I disagree that Breath of the Wild doesn't look like a fresh, new experience though, especially in comparison to Horizon. Unless what we're really talking about is art direction, not gameplay.

 

[WolfStark]

Mario's official premiere video on YouTube is already at 11+ million with high ratings, so it is definitely catching attention.

As for Zelda, it is the sum of its parts that makes it very intriguing.

And the Mario smartphone game was downloaded 90 Million times but only 3 Million thought it was worth buying it. of course it's still a nice number but it shows that the attention itself is not enough. Mario will be one of the games that will sell the most on the new platform, same with Zelda but that doesn't make them exceptional. I would call them solid, fun, even great but in the end it's just the next Mario and the next Zelda.

I don't mean to trash on Horizon at all, since it looks like an awesome game, but they are just providing two totally different experiences. Horizon doesn't have anything like the persistent physics in Breath of the Wild (just as one example, the explosions in Horizon don't have anywhere near the kind of impact and weight as those in BotW do). The few sections where you do get to climb things in Horizon, it's scripted. It also doesn't have anywhere near the verticality of BotW nor the "if you see it, you can go there" vibe.

Zelda has never been a game just about combat but as Aonuma and Miyamoto said recently, "establishing a strong sense of place in the world." BotW also appears to be pretty open-ended in terms of where you can go and what order you can complete the game's areas in. It's much more of a true sandbox game, where a lot of the fun is emergent depending on how you play with the world's elements.

Horizon is much more focused on its combat, its crafting and collecting mechanics, and scripted dialogue between two characters to convey the story. Other than the fact that both games are open world action-RPGs (although Zelda has its own minimalist take on these mechanics as always), they don't really much in common. If they weren't coming out so close to each other I don't think people would really be comparing them.

So when I read your and Ocarinas comment, I would agree with most that is said but I would also never deny both games and especially Zelda not to be really good games, worth the time. But the point is, is that they are simply the next titles in their series. Both do some new stuff, try some things out and that's great but neither Zelda, nor Mario Odyssey share the thrilling factor of something new. They are new games in their franchise, I want them, you want them and everyone knows about them but they can't sell the platform to heights of a Wii. We can talk about aspects of these games but in the end, they both address the Nintendo-Fandom, the core who already pre-ordered the Switch and the Outer rim like myself who is going to wait. For the handheld crowd these games would be sufficient but for the console crowd neither Mario nor Zelda alone is enough that the console would be bought 50 million times and I think that's the problem here. The Switch is not going to be Nintendos handheld at the moment (!) and the games aren't as extraordinary as they need to be to make the people say they will pay 330 Euro for the console and the high prices for games and accessories, outside of the Nintendo realm. It wasn't enough for any console for the past four generations, I don't think that this will change now, just because Zelda is open world with physics that makes steel balls fly miles wide and a Mario with beautiful levels and a hat with eyes.

 

[Kodiak]

And the Mario smartphone game was downloaded 90 Million times but only 3 Million thought it was worth buying it.

That is a fantastic conversion rate for mobile. Nintendo "only" made $30 million on Super Mario Run. And it's not even out on Android yet...

People around here gloss over the fact that Nintendo is experiencing huge success in the mobile space, having now released 3 successful games for mobile. They also have NES mini, amiibo, and 3DS... They are doing great right now.

 

[D.Lo]

And the Mario smartphone game was downloaded 90 Million times but only 3 Million thought it was worth buying it. of course it's still a nice number but it shows that the attention itself is not enough. Mario will be one of the games that will sell the most on the new platform, same with Zelda but that doesn't make them exceptional. I would call them solid, fun, even great but in the end it's just the next Mario and the next Zelda.

Wrong on both accounts, curiously both wrong in opposite directions in a way that would back up your point...

Super Mario Run downloaded 78 million times; more than 5% paid for full version: Nintendo president
Which is 3.9 million purchases or more of Super Mario Run, $39 million in revenue and approximately $27.3 million in gross profit. After just a couple of months, and iOS only, it's almost unprecedented for a $10 phone game.

 

[Breakage]

I mean Wii had a shit ton of accessories.

Yeah, but the accessories wern't essential. You could experience the Wii's USP with just the Wiimote (and sensor bar) straight out of the box. The Wiimote was simple - a few buttons and a dpad. The rest was pointer and motion based. There wasn't much to "understand". The Switch on the other hand requires two Joycons which individually have more inputs than the Wiimote and therefore require more understanding to get going.
Non-gamers bought the Wii and were satisfied with the pack-in Wii Sport game. For those kind of people the Wii was the Wii Sports machine and nothing more. I don't see those same kind of ppl buying a Switch in the same way.

 

[D.Lo]

Non-gamers bought the Wii and were satisfied with the pack-in Wii Sport game. For those kind of people the Wii was the Wii Sports machine and nothing more. I don't see those same kind of ppl buying a Switch in the same way.

You're seriously still going to continue the false meme that a lot of people only bought it for Wii Sports when the Wii sold nine games per console?

Mario Galaxy alone sold 12 million copies. Super Smash Bros. Brawl sold better than every single PS3 game except GTA5. New Super Mario Bros Wii and Mario Kart Wii sold 30 million copies each, more than any single game on PS3 or 360.

I mean in theory it's possible that half the Wii userbase never bought another game. But that means the other half bought 18 games per console, vastly more than any other console ever released.

Wii Sports got the Wii in the door for many buyers. But then they bought just as many games as they did for other consoles, it had an ultra successful software ecosystem in its lifetime, despite getting no AAA support from third parties.

 

[Waji]

I would call them solid, fun, even great but in the end it's just the next Mario and the next Zelda.

Extremely subjective.
I was never hyped for a Zelda before so it's not "just" the next Zelda.
Same for Mario actually.

 

[Skittzo0413]

I think the bottom line here is that very, very few people accurately predicted the Wii's success, so pretending we can somehow predict the Switch's lifetime sales is kind of a fool's errand.

I don't think any of us can really know right now what will happen. It could reach Wii-like sales, it could be closer to Wii U sales. We're not in a position (or time period) to know.

 

[El Topo]

I think the bottom line here is that very, very few people accurately predicted the Wii's success, so pretending we can somehow predict the Switch's lifetime sales is kind of a fool's errand.

I don't think any of us can really know right now what will happen. It could reach Wii-like sales, it could be closer to Wii U sales. We're not in a position (or time period) to know.

Here is the thing: Estimating the success of a device is extremely difficult (if not actually downright impossible), as it is dependent on many things that we have no control over. Furthermore, (presumably) none of us have the data that would be necessary to (make the attempt to) give an educated guess.

That doesn't mean that every estimate is reasonable though. We can still look at the market, we can still look at the device, we can look at the customer groups, we can look at the competition and argue whether or not a claim makes sense (given what we know).

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Its google trends, not exactly a super scientific approach, but it's the only data we have on the thirst to get a switch.

Compared with WiiU, PS4 and Xbox one

https://youtu.be/qabW0bN-ihE?t=1m18s

It does not represent future sales or anything, but, it cannot be bad news? (although thisisneogaf.gif).

Alternative view, Nintendo Switch vs Wii U.



It looks like the Switch peaks haven't reached the heady heights of Wii U popularity yet and we all know with hindsight how popular the Wii U was/is.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

Will Nintendo ever stop chasing the ghost of the Wii?

 

[13ruce]

Will Nintendo ever stop chasing the ghost of the Wii?

Nope probably not it would not suprise me if their next console has motion controls again (after Switch).

 

[KtSlime]

Alternative view, Nintendo Switch vs Wii U.



It looks like the Switch peaks haven't reached the heady heights of Wii U popularity yet and we all know with hindsight how popular the Wii U was/is.

That was people trying to find out more about the Wii's add on controller.

 

[The Artisan]

Nope probably not it would not suprise me if their next console has motion controls again (after Switch).

At least they will have a next console. Some people think they're gonna go 3rd party if the switch fails.
I
I really do feel like it could be a huge success and blow everybody's minds

 

[icy_eagle]

Alternative view, Nintendo Switch vs Wii U.



It looks like the Switch peaks haven't reached the heady heights of Wii U popularity yet and we all know with hindsight how popular the Wii U was/is.

Surely the numbers get inflated from searches for just 'wii'?

Regardless, the initial sales won't be any indication of how the switch will fare, these things are always frontloaded

 

[lwilliams3]

And the Mario smartphone game was downloaded 90 Million times but only 3 Million thought it was worth buying it. of course it's still a nice number but it shows that the attention itself is not enough. Mario will be one of the games that will sell the most on the new platform, same with Zelda but that doesn't make them exceptional. I would call them solid, fun, even great but in the end it's just the next Mario and the next Zelda.

What does Mario Run has anything to do with people's interest with Mario Odyssey? I was simply pointing out that people may be more intrigued with Mario Odyssey than you are suggesting.

Will Nintendo ever stop chasing the ghost of the Wii?

In fairness, the Wii U was chasing the Wii in mostly naming only. In terms of a lot of important aspects, Nintendo didn't follow the Wii's approach.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

I wonder how many people will confuse Switch with the WiiU gamepad.

 

[Shiggy]

More related to this thread:
According to Google Trends, "Pre order Nintendo Switch" has had around 5 times the number of searches as "Pre order Wii U" had pre-launch

Alternative view, Nintendo Switch vs Wii U.



It looks like the Switch peaks haven't reached the heady heights of Wii U popularity yet and we all know with hindsight how popular the Wii U was/is.

Seems pretty pointless indeed:

 

[legacyzero]

Oh you think so, huh?

 

[Buggy Loop]

Alternative view, Nintendo Switch vs Wii U.



It looks like the Switch peaks haven't reached the heady heights of Wii U popularity yet and we all know with hindsight how popular the Wii U was/is.

You have to compare apple to apples at least

Using official name of Switch with company name but not for Wii U will give more results towards WiiU

Compare Nintendo Switch vs Nintendo Wii U

Just like, pre order PS4 & pre order Xbox one & pre order Wii U & pre order Switch are comparatively fair. Switch always has a chance that someone is looking for a mere switch, but rarely anyone would pre order a "switch" per say.


And we see by other data that switch is getting traction, Super mario odyssey @ 11 603 880 views on youtube is not for nothing. Most games don't even have this for their trailers, even years after.

 

[Pancake Mix]

You have to compare apple to apples at least

Using official name of Switch with company name but not for Wii U will give more results towards WiiU

Compare Nintendo Switch vs Nintendo Wii U
.

To be fair, Wii U was the official hardware name, not Nintendo Wii U.

 

[wildfire]

Alternative view, Nintendo Switch vs Wii U.



It looks like the Switch peaks haven't reached the heady heights of Wii U popularity yet and we all know with hindsight how popular the Wii U was/is.

*coughs*

 

[brad-t]

Aren't those spikes all shortly following the console's releases? Feel like all you could conclude from this is that the Switch has more pre-release hype than the Wii or Wii U.

 

[Trigonometrize.]

I feel like to break 10o million, you need:
- a giant reason for the general public to be interested
or
- a fantastic roll-out

Switch definitely doesn't have the second, and I don't know if the first is going to do it for people. I'm not betting on it.

 

[wildfire]

Aren't those spikes all shortly following the console's releases? Feel like all you could conclude from this is that the Switch has more pre-release hype than the Wii or Wii U.

It does but the second person everyone was responding to neglected to see that.

 

[Some Nobody]

We'll be lucky if PS4 does this. And if they don't stop BSing and trying to hint at a separate 3DS successor, the Switch will be lucky to hit 3DS numbers.

 

[greendublin]

There is absolutely no way Nintendo sells 60 million units of a device like the 3DS in 2017. The market is completely saturated with dirt cheap phones and tablets capable of playing games at a price point of "free."

This nails it. The 'handheld gaming device' market has been drying up for years. Kids are playing free games on $50 Fire tablets now. Just look at the chart posted earlier in the thread.

2008 29.47m DS
2009 27.28m DS
2010 20.55m DS
2011 21.32m = 12.56m 3DS + 8.76m DS
2012 16.49m = 13.48m 3DS + 3.01m DS
2013 15.13m = 14.31m 3DS + .82m DS
2014 9.74m 3DS
2015 7.86m 3DS

The downward trend is undeniable and thinking this hybrid will sell even 3DS numbers is blind optimism. It's too large and too expensive as a handheld, and too underpowered as a console. Neither market wants the device. Can a piece of software rewrite the story? If it can, it's a title we haven't seen yet.

 

[WolfStark]

What does Mario Run has anything to do with people's interest with Mario Odyssey? I was simply pointing out that people may be more intrigued with Mario Odyssey than you are suggesting.

It shows that there is a difference in interests. Just because people click on something, that doesn't mean they are willing to buy something. This is the newest Mario game, Nintendo has 50+ million fans at least, so having a high number on a Mario trailer is pretty much expected. But are people loving what they see and willing to buy it? Maye but you can't read it out of of the clicking numbers. I simply doubt that this Mario game will make any difference, because there is nothing that makes it stand out, even though fans point at the hat with eyes and the lazy New York setting but I am not talking about the core.

Extremely subjective.
I was never hyped for a Zelda before so it's not "just" the next Zelda.
Same for Mario actually.

It's only subjective, because you want it to be. Both games have some new features but that's the case with most sequels, not just with these. This isn't a reinvented Zelda like Resident Evil 7 ist completely different from the last three games of the franchise or Mario 64 was compared to Super Mario World. You are free to disagree of course, I mean I say that a Zelda/Mario game is not extraordinary, which is still pretty much a sacrilege but it's like that for quiet some time now outside of the Nintendo realm. I don't think it's wrong to see those franchises from a more unemotional point of view.

 

[jax]

I wonder how many people will confuse Switch with the WiiU gamepad.

 

[GhostEther]

Really doubt it at that price entry without 1-2 bundled in.

 

[ponziacs]

Switch isn't going up against an initially overpriced Playstation console like the Wii was.

 

[Screamapillar]

PS3 had a horrible first two years, and has now sold what, 70 million? And that system started at $600. Ten years ago. lol

I think there's a chance Switch and PS4 could have similar trajectories. I don't know why I feel that way, just a gut thing.

 

[EdwardTeach]

The switch will obviously get a price cut, but it's important to point out that Nintendo was hilariously overcharging for what the 3DS was in 2011. Sony launched the Vita not much later for the exact same price and the Vita utterly, totally, completely smokes the 3DS from a hardware standpoint.

The 3DS was cheap, outdated hardware when it hit store shelves and Nintendo built a huge margin into it. This is absolutely NOT the case with the switch. While I wouldn't call it top tier, there doesn't appear to be a massive margin built into it as there was with the 3DS: it's 300 dollars because that's what this thing costs to sell. The Nvidia shield tablet is older but similar hardware with a smaller screen, no dock or joycons and it's still selling for $200 3 years after launch.

The ridiculous pricing on the shield accessories seems to back this up. There should be no reason for ludicrous prices on controllers and extra docks if the margin was there on the system to begin with. A $50 price cut? I can see that. But imagining a 3DS level cut within the first 12 months isn't realistic.

I realise that they cant compromise much with hardware price therefore including some pack in games would really sweeten the blow (of the relatively steep hardware costs). People are suggesting 12 switch, and I kind of agree, but I actually think they should have launched with Mario Kart 8 as the pack in. It would straight away seem like much more of a bargain, and would also encourage sales of their hilariously overpriced controllers.

 

[ponziacs]

The Wii was cheaper than both the Xbox 360 and PS3 at launch and came with a game.

The Switch is more expensive than both the Xbox 1 and PS4 and does not come with a game.

 

[ShadowFox08]

The Wii was cheaper than both the Xbox 360 and PS3 at launch and came with a game.

The Switch is more expensive than both the Xbox 1 and PS4 and does not come with a game.

Nintendo is likely making a profit off the switch, but the switch has a lot of advanced tech, and its a portable that could be roughly half of xbone in power(when docked), and Wii u 1.5x in handheld mode.

 

[NewGame]

100% not happening.

The Wii was cheaper and cheaper every year, it had mass appeal and a butt load of games.

The Switch is expensive and I doubt it will price drop. It has a pretty narrow 'gamer' appeal and as far as games go... it looks like we've got another Gamecube!

 

[TB12]

wel...

 

[The Artisan]

I really wish there was some sort of disc-media playback on the switch, I want a new system at home I feel like my Ps3 is dying and the Switch would've been my first nintendo console since the gameboy advance sp

 

[D.Lo]

2008 29.47m DS
2009 27.28m DS
2010 20.55m DS
2011 21.32m = 12.56m 3DS + 8.76m DS
2012 16.49m = 13.48m 3DS + 3.01m DS
2013 15.13m = 14.31m 3DS + .82m DS
2014 9.74m 3DS
2015 7.86m 3DS

The downward trend is undeniable and thinking this hybrid will sell even 3DS numbers is blind optimism. It's too large and too expensive as a handheld, and too underpowered as a console. Neither market wants the device. Can a piece of software rewrite the story? If it can, it's a title we haven't seen yet.

You might want to have looked at 2016/2017 sales before you made this post. 3DS went up...

 

[Wensih]

Nintendo is likely making a profit off the switch, but the switch has a lot of advanced tech, and its a portable that could be roughly half of xbone in power(when docked), and Wii u 1.5x in handheld mode.

But what does the system being profitable for Nintendo have to do with the switch raking in the numbers that the Wii had? The Wii U also sold at a profit yes?

When you say it's going to be a system that's half the power of the Xbox one that just sends up a red flag that third parties will continue to ignore it as they focus efforts on systems with larger install bases creating games that will not be able to be ported to Nintendo's system.

 

[Schopenhauerian]

Its google trends, not exactly a super scientific approach, but it's the only data we have on the thirst to get a switch.

Compared with WiiU, PS4 and Xbox one

https://youtu.be/qabW0bN-ihE?t=1m18s

It does not represent future sales or anything, but, it cannot be bad news? (although thisisneogaf.gif).

Alternative view, Nintendo Switch vs Wii U.



It looks like the Switch peaks haven't reached the heady heights of Wii U popularity yet and we all know with hindsight how popular the Wii U was/is.

You have to compare apple to apples at least

Using official name of Switch with company name but not for Wii U will give more results towards WiiU...

Another interesting comparison:

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=2004-01-01 2017-02-05&q=playstation,nintendo

Dec 2004
PlayStation - 70
Nintendo - 44

Dec 2005
PlayStation - 55
Nintendo - 45

Dec 2006
PlayStation - 51
Nintendo - 100

Dec 2007
PlayStation - 50
Nintendo - 91

Dec 2008
PlayStation - 44
Nintendo - 71

Dec 2009
PlayStation - 34
Nintendo - 54

Dec 2010
PlayStation - 32
Nintendo - 36

Dec 2011
PlayStation - 28
Nintendo - 33

Dec 2012
PlayStation - 24
Nintendo - 25

Dec 2013
PlayStation - 35
Nintendo - 24

Dec 2014
PlayStation - 41
Nintendo - 20

Dec 2015
PlayStation - 32
Nintendo - 18

Dec 2016
PlayStation - 33
Nintendo - 32

http://ignorethecode.net/blog/2013/09/13/the_videogame_sales_cycle/

 

[YaGaMi]

Not happening

 

[User Name Here]

I doubt it'll do Wii numbers, but i'm sure it'll do great. I know for sure that I have this almost overwhelming urge to buy it. I likely won't end up buying it though.

 

[BreathOfTheWife]

Nintendo Switch is currently outpacing Nintendo Wii and only needed 21.77 million units sold to surpass Nintendo Wii which could easily be achieved in the next fiscal year sales.