IronicSonic
Member
I can see Switch becoming a thing. Maybe not Wii levels of success but sure beyond 3DS levels. I think the concept is incredible appealing even though, the execution is not perfect
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Kimishima thinks the Switch has the potential to reach Wii-like sales
- Thread starter DNAbro
- Start date
Skittzo0413
Member
The thing that the Switch has going for it that not even the Wii or DS did was that it's a seriously attractive looking device, purely from an aesthetics point of view.
And the hardware itself has been almost universally praised as feeling/appearing high end.
Youre forgeting the 100 plus millions who dowload there nintendo games on moblie, thats some new potential buyers, plus if they link this mobile games to the games on switch with some exclusive stuff, then theres the nintendo app.
yeah downloading a free app on a device they already own is not the same as plopping $300 for a console + their games.
My nieces both have pokemon go and such on their phones, but my sister aint going to buy them a 3DS, much less a Switch.
Well thats you, but you cant ignore the huge bump of the sales of sun and moon and the 3ds cuz of the pokemon go craze, potential buyers are out there just waiting for a great device thats for them.
Milly Osworth
Member
Lets bump this thread is 2 years.
MysteryQuesadilla
Member
I hate to say it but this I'm of this same opinion. I want this thing to sell hot cakes like the Wii but I think the a lot of the public with a home console outside of the hardcore enthusiast crowd these days has their PS4 or Xbox for their console needs and a tablet/phone for their portable needs. I can certainly see this being more successful than the Wii U but I'm having a hard time fathoming how this will be meet Wii numbers.
slightconfuse
Banned
Maybe get to wii U sales before you get excited
VendettaRed07
Member
They are going to need to do this if they want even to get to 3ds numbers
I'd say probably more than half the people who ever bought a 3ds bought more than one. A lot have several, I've got four ffs
They are going to need to put out attractive form factors and variations so the core audience is doing this
Ok, so I wasnt the only one like, huh...
That post was saying it like the PS4 doesnt even exist. And the PS1 and 2 didnt happen. And the PS3 rebounding like it did. And as much as some ppl like to compare sales of the 3DS to the PS4 (I never agree with the comparisons) its about to pass the 3DS in sales... In a shorter amount of time.
I wouldnt say the Wii wasnt special but the PS4 has a real shot to sell 100 million.
The Wii was very appealing though. The Wiimote might still be the most appealing controller ever.
Dark Cloud
Member
That's fine, but your sister isn't everybody. We'll see how the casual market reacts. They are who matters. It's the best looking system Nintendo has ever had. It has a coolness look to it.
It's pretty ingenious how Nintendo is leveraging their portable dominance to create a huge library for their future home console with docked mode specs.
It's all about the games and marketing of course but if they can successfully introduce a cheaper home console sku and cheaper portable only sku while retaining backwards/forwards compatibility they just might get there. Keep the current Switch as the premium sku while the other 2 are offered for $199. Same software library for all.
It's all about the games and marketing of course but if they can successfully introduce a cheaper home console sku and cheaper portable only sku while retaining backwards/forwards compatibility they just might get there. Keep the current Switch as the premium sku while the other 2 are offered for $199. Same software library for all.
Dark Cloud
Member
It'll entail any new SKUs of course.
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
Looking at 2016 sales of PS4 and two new consoles launch in 2017 and the fact that most of the beloved franchises available already, I believe PS4 will not even come close to 100 million. Unless Sony will sell it forever like they did with PS2, that had been sold as a karaoke/DVD machine for most of its 10 years lifespan, but I don't see Sony to pull this again with PS4.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
It's hard to see anything doing Wii, or especially PS2, numbers again unless there's some major change in the market.
People are just fragmented across PC, Playstation, Xbox and Nintendo, and a lot of the casuals that made PS2 (i.e. those that bought as much/more for a DVD player than gaming) and Wii (the Wii Sports/Wii Fit--as well as the Nintendogs, BrainAge folks from the DS) are either not gaming or fine with simple mobile games.
I see the Switch probably doing 50ish million--keeping most of the Wii and 3DS base, maybe attracting some lapsed fans who skipped those back to replace others who leave.
Maybe up to 70-80 million if they're smart and put out some cheaper portable only and console only Skus down the road to make it an easier sale to people who'll only use it one way (and thus would always be paying more for features they won't use in the current set up).
I think Nintendo would be fine with either of those scenarios, despite hopes of hitting WIi numbers. Even 50 million is a large base to sell their games too now that all their games are in one place. Not to mention DLC, their online service, Amiibo etc.
People are just fragmented across PC, Playstation, Xbox and Nintendo, and a lot of the casuals that made PS2 (i.e. those that bought as much/more for a DVD player than gaming) and Wii (the Wii Sports/Wii Fit--as well as the Nintendogs, BrainAge folks from the DS) are either not gaming or fine with simple mobile games.
I see the Switch probably doing 50ish million--keeping most of the Wii and 3DS base, maybe attracting some lapsed fans who skipped those back to replace others who leave.
Maybe up to 70-80 million if they're smart and put out some cheaper portable only and console only Skus down the road to make it an easier sale to people who'll only use it one way (and thus would always be paying more for features they won't use in the current set up).
I think Nintendo would be fine with either of those scenarios, despite hopes of hitting WIi numbers. Even 50 million is a large base to sell their games too now that all their games are in one place. Not to mention DLC, their online service, Amiibo etc.
toadsworth
Banned
The president of a company says publicly his company will make oodles of money. What is he supposed to say? "I think the switch won't sell great" He's got shareholders to appease.
Skittzo0413
Member
Really, you think so? I don't know what the general sentiment is but I found it kinda ugly, especially from a usability standpoint. The all-white didn't help. I think the black versions were much nicer looking.
The Switch though has the best screen Nintendo has ever made, by far, I would say. Which will make this thing look very nice to people who see it being played out in the wild.
After 3 years, they've already almost sold 60 mio, with the last quarter being the most successful one. I don't think Sony will let the PS4 rot after 4 years like Nintendo did with the Wii U; for that it's too successful.
Dark Cloud
Member
Going by the other topic many on here believed it wouldn't make it to 15 million by 2020.
Manmademan
Member
The ps4 is outselling the ps2.
Q3 was the most successful quarter for a console in PS history, breaking the record set by the ps2 in 2003 by a million units.
The ps3 hit 80 million units lifetime. The ps4 will completely smoke the 100 million unit mark with no difficulty...and literally no one is buying that as a karaoke machine.
Your prediction has flaws. First, there is an overlap. These three kind of costumers aren't three. There are people that own a Playstation, 3DS and secondary consoles. This 1 costumers bought three devices. Secondary, it's not working that way. Switch is not the 3DS successor, Nintendo makes it very clear at the moment that they don't kill the 3DS but instead continue making games for the handheld.
I predict:
10 - 15 M as long as Nintendo doesn't unify everything under the Switch.
People aren't underestimating Nintendo. No one underestimated the NES, Gameboy or DS. Sure no one might have said they will have the numbers they had but no one said it's crap that won't sell either. The only real surprise was the Wii but it still was a failure on the core market, as the Wii U demonstrated. People felt Nintendo got out of touch with the Wii, while it was praised by the casual usually non-gamers. The N64 failed, the Gamecube failed, the Wii failed with the original gamers but managed to make decent numbers with new costumers, the Wii U failed because those new costumers were completely fine with the Wii.
So now with a new console, which costs more then the consoles of competitors, being low-tech, the competitor having the edge in sales. with a price increase around 35% on games and very high cost on periphery and no extraordinary game in sight, just the usual Nintendoware, how should one assume this console would sell better then the Wii U does?
And PokèmonGo is not from Nintendo.
I think they have a concept that could be as succelful.
The main attraction here is convenience. Why do people game on Smartphones? Its because of convenience. Now if you look at the Switch, its not very convenient to use on a short commute or something but it offers other conveniences.
For example it offers convenience in local multiplayer or party games. 1-2 switch is a great example of a game that is "convenient"
Playing a big console game like Zelda on the tv and being able to instantly Switch to portable mode is also very convenient. Same goes for tabletop mode and long train commutes or flights. Its a console built around the convenience aspect. It solves a lot of problems for me with regard to gaming and I believe for many others as well.
The main attraction here is convenience. Why do people game on Smartphones? Its because of convenience. Now if you look at the Switch, its not very convenient to use on a short commute or something but it offers other conveniences.
For example it offers convenience in local multiplayer or party games. 1-2 switch is a great example of a game that is "convenient"
Playing a big console game like Zelda on the tv and being able to instantly Switch to portable mode is also very convenient. Same goes for tabletop mode and long train commutes or flights. Its a console built around the convenience aspect. It solves a lot of problems for me with regard to gaming and I believe for many others as well.
Manmademan
Member
The problem is that simple time wasters are easily had for 0 dollars on smartphones people already own. 1 2 switch is firmly in that category. That game is on the level of demo software that should come with a machine for free. It's not going to sell $300 hardware.
The Wii offers local multi-player games, but that didn't stop sales from falling off a cliff on 2011 when smartphones blew up. The same is true of the WiiU. Completely dead in the water. The home console market doesn't appear to be demanding these, outside of the 10 million or so that are into Mario Kart and splatoon.
And as for going from big screen to portable, this was literally the entire point of the WiiU and the market laughed this off. It's not a feature anyone wants.
The Nintendo hardcore will buy this, but Nintendo has given core and casual users no reason at all to buy this.
There's never been a NIntendo handheld that didn't sell 5 times better than the Wii U. Try again.
Dark Cloud
Member
I still think 30 million is successful. Even that Colin guy from Kinda Funny Games said selling past Gamecube would be a good number. I think aiming past N64 is good.
Manmademan
Member
Not technically a handheld (it was a portable) but the virtual boy sold worse than WiiU levels.
That's probably the best example of Nintendo completely misreading the market if there ever was one.
Okami Haundo
Member
I agree! They haven't even sold a single unit yet! Talk about artificial scarcity...
The "bus test" is not the only measure of whether the device has merit as a portable device. Nintendo perhaps rightly understands that they can't compete with bite-sized mobile experiences, so they're taking a two-pronged approach:
1. Nintendo is making their own mobile games; if gamers are going to play on mobile devices anyway, Nintendo may as well get their properties on there, and reap the dual benefits of increased revenue and increased exposure for their console-based IP.
2. Provide a portable experience that is well-tailored for the home, for long commutes, or to bring with you to a friend's place. The portability of the Switch is more akin to a tablet than a smartphone. Nintendo understands this, too:
The Switch doesn't fit neatly into the console/handheld dichotomy, which is what makes it such an unknown quantity.
1. Nintendo is making their own mobile games; if gamers are going to play on mobile devices anyway, Nintendo may as well get their properties on there, and reap the dual benefits of increased revenue and increased exposure for their console-based IP.
2. Provide a portable experience that is well-tailored for the home, for long commutes, or to bring with you to a friend's place. The portability of the Switch is more akin to a tablet than a smartphone. Nintendo understands this, too:
The Switch doesn't fit neatly into the console/handheld dichotomy, which is what makes it such an unknown quantity.
I think some of the math here is suspect. There is a ton of crossover between housholds with 3DS and WiiU. Even multiple 3DS per WiiU. Nintendo doses not need to replace every 3DS and WiiU for the Switch to be a success. Obviously there are 140M Wii owners that never upgraded to WiiU also. So there is a ton of potential customers out there. This thing could be huge.
Manmademan
Member
The switch isn't akin to a tablet at all, since it lacks access to the apps that every smartphone and tablet come with by default.
Until it's running whatsapp, facebook, instagram, snapchat, YouTube, Netflix, twitter, apple music, Kindle, spotify, and taking calls in addition to running games, then it's not going to replace phones or tablets at all.
Nintendo is going to have to sell people on buying and carrying a switch IN ADDITION TO a galaxy note or iPad.
That's a tough sell, as we've seen with the decline in dedicated portable sales. Would parents buy it for kids they don't trust with an iPad? Maybe...but not for $300 for hardware alone.
Im not talking about 1-2 Switch specifically. But nonetheless I dont think that a throwaway smartphone game will be a better "local multiplayer" option than something like 1-2 Switch on a picknick or get together.
You know, when i was a kid, it was easy to go to a friends house and play all day. When your an adult with a busy job and especially if you have kids, its not that easy to go to a friends house and play all day. Thats why it solves a problem for me because i can play with friends at the office or when in a get together at a cafe or something. I think you underestimate that aspect.
the Wii U wasnt nearly as clear on that messagr and many games didnt suppirt single screen gaming on the tablet and didnt work for me because of my house setup.
SpiceMelange
Member
Maybe later down the line, but not at this price point
Stabattack
Member
2018 Investors Call: "Please understand"
FlaygletheBagel
Banned
Regarding the bolded: Of course they have to say that. The 3DS is the only guaranteed revenue stream they have in their hardware business, and they won't be severing ties with it while they're still uncertain about how the Switch will do. If they do cut the 3DS off and the Switch turns out to be in a bad place, they've got nothing to fall back on.
It's obvious that most development resources have been shifted away from the 3DS. It's not where their focus is anymore, and unless the Switch is a major bomb, that won't be changing anytime soon. Barring a total disaster, I don't expect to see the 3DS lasting much longer than early-to-mid 2018, at which point the Switch will be full steam ahead.
And I can't envision any universe where the Switch only sells 10M-15M units. That's Wii U levels of bad, and everything about its public perception has been much better than the Wii U. The marketing, the branding, the concept, the hardware build, the first party launch lineup, the positive word of mouth, and so on.
Skittzo0413
Member
...at launch. The Wii didn't have Netflix at launch, but it became the most used device running Netflix.
A lot of the judgements people are making in this thread are very oddly only thinking about this console's proposition at launch. "Not at $300 it won't!!" Yeah, this is obvious. This is what price drops are for.
We don't know what types of things Nintendo will have in store for after launch, such as a web browser app, Netflix app, smartphone touchscreen only games... All of that is very possible with this device, and acting like it can never happen is very short-sighted.
Are you aware that this was confirmed to be a misunderstanding and Kimishima never said a thing about a 3DS successor?
Lupin the Third
Member
Someone doesn't know their history. American retailers didn't even want to CARRY the NES because of the market health at the time. People who played it liked it but it was NOT an easy sell. I can't speak for the Game Boy but the DS was derided constantly in opinion articles and on forums like this one because it was up against the sleeker and more powerful PSP.
Second, it's spelled "customers", not "costumers". The latter is a more archaic word for people who dress up in costumes, like cosplayers.
My point about it being "like a tablet" has absolutely nothing to do with its software, but in the situations you would use such a device. A tablet is a mobile device even if it's used primarily in the home or being transported from one location to another. I don't see a ton of people using tablets on the bus vs. smartphones, but that doesn't mean their users don't value their device's mobility.
Alex_Mexico
Member
No way its happening. They'll be luck to outperform the Gamecube and their absolute ceiling would be 3DS numbers. There's no way this thing can sell 100 million units.
What does the price in Mexico alone indicate? It's also unlikely that the system will remain at this pricepoint forever.
Manmademan
Member
Netflix may or may not come depending on what Netflix considers a priority, but you ignored my larger point which is that without access to the IOS app store or google play, ANY device is dead in the water as a portable device.
Those storefronts aren't "nice to haves" they're the bare minimum expectation, as Microsoft found out when trying to sell customers on windows phone.
Without those, you can't sell a device as any kind of portable replacement for a phone or tablet.
And yes people, launch price point does matter. If Nintendo can't convince anyone to buy the thing at $300 it will never have enough traction to justify a hardware reduction that would get it down to 200 without Nintendo losing a mint on each unit.