kpop100 said:
Your illustration of marketshare is terrible. If Sony had only sold 1 PSP to the number of DSs sold it wouldn't have any marketshare at all.
Also unless you post some hardcore facts about exactly who is buying what, I don't think you could make any claims about what system is taking sales away from what else. As it is you made a silly analogy, and threw in some anecdotal evidence for extra effect.
What is so silly about my awesome shoebox console? When it is released, it will have an installed base of one. Hence, the wedges on the pie chart for my competitors shrink. My shoebox console has taken part of their market.
It is not my shoebox comparison that is ridiculous. It is this emphasis on a pie chart. The 3DO "took" part of the PS1's marketshare if you only look at the pie chart. But we know the 3DO had no real effect.
If the PSP took Nintendo's handheld marketshare, then why are DSes selling faster than the GBAs did? The PSP certainly isn't killing the GBA in the West either. We also don't know how many people have bought both DS and PSPs.
There are so many problems with the typical pie-chart "marketshare" that don't make such a graph useful in determining growth or decline by numbers.
Video games are entertainment driven by technology. Sony and MS are placing their emphasis on graphics, and in Sony's case a new storage format. Nintendo is placing their emphasis on controller technology. It's still all driven by tech in one way or another. Sounds like you are again using your personal opinions cloud your view of the industry.
It is true that entertainment, in video games, is carried out by technology. But it would be
disasterous to say that technology alone is entertainment. Miyamoto, after releasing his supposed magnum opus game of Mario 64, was shattered that his 'hit' got outsold by those Tamagotchis. While Miyamoto was using sophisticated 3d technology, Tamagotchi used dot matrix. (Perhaps this explains the desire to make Nintendogs in the first place.)
The big question for this console generation is: what is more entertaining? Nintendo decided to put their money on the controller rather than the screen because they think it will create a more entertaining experience. In time, we will have to see what happens.
There is still no HD craze coming from the market. HD television sales have been disapointing and their prices are falling. The Xbox 360 has HD graphics and its sales have not caught fire. This doesn't mean the 360 won't catch fire, but if it does, it won't be because of the HD graphics. Are graphical upgrades as entertaining as they used to be? (I'd say "No" because PS2 is still outselling 360). Have controller innovations proved themselves to be entertaining? (I'd say "Yes" as games as Guitar Hero has proven.)
Despite all the technology, the real source of the entertainment will be the software. We cannot predict what the next 'big game' will be or where it will come from. This is why the entertainment industry is so hard to predict. (Who can predict the next 'hit song' or next 'hit movie'? These things surprise even the best of analysts.)
Some people don't like my PS3 and Wii comparison to the PSP and DS. I felt this was a more solid comparison since they are still in the field of video games. Fine. Here is another example: Walkman and I-pod. Both share almost eerie similar business strategies to the PS3 and Wii. Even worse, the Walkman, what put Sony on the map, was Sony's most successful brand and their 'owning' the portable music market. Along came Apple and completely disrupted it.
Sony has been 'rolling' the Playstations into one another very effectively. The PS1 price drops as soon as the PS2 is released. And PS2 price drops as the PS3 is released. But there is one potential problem: Sony is overshooting the market with the PS3. When people complain about the price or the convergence features, they are saying, "This console doesn't fit my needs. It has overshot them." People would be much happier if the PS3 had less features and a cheaper price.
Due to this 'overshooting' the market, Sony has opened up the possibility for a disruptor to come in. I believe Nintendo has studied the Ipod very closely. I expect the Wii to be like something as if Apple had made it... straight down to the i-tunes store (Virtual Console) to the advertising (is Wii going to be using sillouettes? God help us).
The ipod was on the market for a couple of years before it began to take off. We saw how the DS exploded suddenly in Japan.
Also, keep in mind Hollywood (since games now mimic the movie business model). Movies have been relying too much on special effects. In the 70s, we saw Star Wars and Jaws and said, "WoW!" In the 80s, we saw Terminator and went, "Whoa!" In the 90s, we had Jurassic Park among other films. But today, despite all their special effects, the movies are no longer special. Movie execs are worried because people are not coming to the movies like they used to. Also, all movies have been aimed at the same demographic: young people. Hollywood has not considered making movies for other demographics even though many of them (like senior citizens) would love to see movies if someone would make some for them.
This is occurring now with video games. You cannot keep making games for the same exact demographic and expect infinite growth. And like movies, in the 70s with Pong and Space-Invaders, we said, "Wow!". In the 80s with Super Mario Brothers and Zelda, we again said, "Whoa!". In the 90s, we had the 3d technologies from Mario 64 to Final Fantasy 7 and, again, people said, "Wow!" But now? Are people gathering around HD Xbox 360 demo kiosks and saying, "WOW!"? Do you hear your friendly gamer say, "You know what these games need? Larger storage formats! I tell you, if games had larger storage formats, that would be so entertaining!" Nevermind that with consoles connecting to the Internet, they now have infinite storage space.
Unlike last generation, the game library will not be the sole determination of which console is more entertaining. Rather than a 'console war', I see an 'entertainment war'. Think of the big picture. What will be more entertaining? Wacky controller or upgraded graphics? If Wii somehow does outsell the PS3 and Xbox 360, the eighth generation of consoles will not be focused on better graphics and more horsepower, that is for sure. Such a change off of the sustaining technologies would mark a substancial shift since... well, since the early 1980s. No wonder Nintendo code-named their system the 'Revolution'.
All I know is that there are people who will always make hay with whatever (apparently negative) differences occur between a system and that which has come before that was successful, addressing what happened in hindsight and pointing out how this and that differs, and thus how the outcome will differ. But that happens every time