Many of October's biggest AAA titles seem to be underperforming greatly (NPD info)

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AHA-Lambda

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Much of this info is from the NPD thread and from another twitter source that is being taken from that same thread as genuine (ah, just realised it's Aquamarine!):

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1316580
https://twitter.com/AstronautClaire

I felt this was appropriate to highlight outwith the thread as there has been alot of news lately focusing on the underperformance of AAA titles.
This is especially pertinent with all the threads focusing on the UK and the speculation on whether this decline is isolated to just the UK.
If this thread isn't appropriate though then apologies, and mods can lock it.

Notable highlights from NPD thread/twitter source:

In general this October feels like a franchise destroyer month. Lots of franchises seeing significant drops and generally weak openings.
I think there is a general sentiment of consumer fatigue in the USA. People are looking for the the next big IPs at retail (like Minecraft).
Although it may also be a possibility that sales are getting increasingly concentrated around the holiday season. We have to look at Nov.
Story of the month seems to be Titanfall 2
Titanfall 2 was a big failure at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail Software, selling a mere 182K, or -79% from Titanfall 1's March 2014 debut (865K).
Given abundant evidence of sales weakness & decline in many territories worldwide (cf. NPD & GfK data), $EA will not produce a Titanfall 3.
BF1 is performing very well
This is a HUGE improvement for Battlefield at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail Software, a massive +50% increase from Battlefield 4's 836K launch!
Battlefield 1's rampant success at USA Retail demonstrates a collective desire of FPS-fans to return to historical and unique settings.

Mafia 3 performed well

$TTWO's Mafia III sold 503K at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail Software (310K on PS4 and 193K on XBO).+122% higher than Mafia II's 2010 debut (227K)
Gears of War 4 did not, selling about as well as Judgment
$MSFT's Gears of War 4 sold ~415K excluding bundles and 505K including bundles at October 2016 NPD USA Retail Software.
$MSFT's Gears of War 4 launch sales of 505K are lower than GOW Judgment's ~620K 2013 NPD debut (-19%), but digital sales are much higher now
But even with digital, compared to GOW3 launch sales (more than 2 mill.), this is still a fundamentally disappointing sales result for $MSFT
Rise of the Tomb Raider PS4 flopped

Square Enix's Rise of the Tomb Raider wasn't so lucky. PS4 release was this month at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW, and ROTR only sold ~120K.
Skylanders has now collapsed
The toys-to-life genre ($ATVI, $DIS, $TWX) has finally collapsed at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW. The new Skylanders sold a tiny 66K, or -41%.
Skyrim released on same day as Titanfall 2 and sold more than double TF2

Bethesda's Skyrim Special Edition (Remastered) release sold ~400K at October 2016 NPD USA Retail Software, a fantastic result for a remaster
There is more at the links but this was the info that felt pertinent at first glance.
 

Zukkoyaki

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Titanfall and Tomb Raider could be seen coming miles away. Toys-to-life was never going to last.

Gears is unfortunate but that'll likely be something of an evergreen title for Xbox One.
 

Trago

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There's only so much people can buy and play in a short time period.

Publishers! Let your games breath!
 

DNAbro

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Nov 18, 2013
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Maybe stop releasing all your damn games in a 2 month time frame and I'll buy more. Titanfall 2's release date is still so baffling.
 

RoKKeR

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The Titanfall bomb was even worse than I imagined. Truly abysmal numbers. Still just cannot fathom what EA was thinking with that.

Great to see BF1 getting a solid reception – I hope it brings about more historical settings for shooters in the coming years.
 

Aces&Eights

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I'm really digging Tomb Raider. I don't know why as I have grown pretty bored with collectable gameplay loops but for some reason it just clicks. Skyrim is a monster as expected, too.
 

oti

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Super interesting. Part of me thinks "bummer", part of me can't wait to see how the publishers respond.

I'd also love to know what SE thinks of the Xbox exclusivity deal looking back. Just so we're clear here, I bought an Xbox specifically for ROTTR, before you get any ideas.
 

Gunslinger

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maybe selling a game with full of content is not the answer. I remember many people were whining when TF1 came out saying "NOOOO SP NO BUY!" or something like "Game has no content" yet when respawn did listen to them and put all that stuff in people didn't even buy it lol. IMO game devs should do what ever they feel is the right thing to do for their product and not listen to the internet lol. Titanfall2 selling this bad and GoW selling this bad is surprising to me though. They even sold less than SFV which is a super niche genre. As for Tomb Raider well.. the ship sailed long time ago. They should have released it alongside the xbox one version.
 

JustinBbad

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I feel like we've seen a gradual expanding of the release calendar throughout the year, but most major released still focusee on October and November. Perhaps this can change. I don't want any dry spells during the year. The gaming audience has aged and has money. I can buy a game in January or July. Just release them them then so they don't get drowned out by Battlefield and COD.
 

rocketskates

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What were xbone sales for Tomb Raider?

Hopefully this year long wait didn't kill a y hope know a new game.
 

AHA-Lambda

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oh a funny aside

Guitar Hero Live Supreme Party Edition also released at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW! That's right! More old franchises! Too bad it sold <10K.
Remember Just Dance? Ubisoft released Just Dance 2017 at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW and it sold poorly at <30K (even The Division sold more)
Can we dispel the dumb idea that games underperforming in the UK is down to Brexit now?
Certainly, I feel we can say this is not a UK nor a Brexit issue.

It'll be very interesting to see how CoD, Watch Dogs 2 do next NPD
 
Jul 28, 2014
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Consumers are voting with their wallets -- Well received games (by critics and consumers alike) will continue to be successful in future iterations (See BF1). Poorly received games will not be as well received (TF2/GeoW4).

The reality is that developers/publishers can't just put out games and hope that people buy them even if they didn't like the previous games.
 

Y2Kev

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I can't believe the hit se took on tr entry over entry. Tr2013 went on to sell 7mm. This will sell half.
 

Steel

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Most of the big titles were in the same god damned genre. What do people expect?
 

Schlorgan

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Consumers are voting with their wallets -- Well received games (by critics and consumers alike) will continue to be successful in future iterations (See BF1). Poorly received games will not be as well received (TF2/GeoW4).

The reality is that developers/publishers can't just put out games and hope that people buy them even if they didn't like the previous games.
Titanfall 2 has a higher Metacritic score than BF1.
 

Exploratory

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Consumers are voting with their wallets -- Well received games (by critics and consumers alike) will continue to be successful in future iterations (See BF1). Poorly received games will not be as well received (TF2/GeoW4).

The reality is that developers/publishers can't just put out games and hope that people buy them even if they didn't like the previous games.
How about people just buy good games and wait until release to see if they're good rather than just blindly not get the next one.
 
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Prices drop fast these days, patient people dont have to wait long to save money. That and digital sales of course.
Yes, buy the game you want and wait until January for the discounts. That and the fact that online communities you need to to be there day one or get left behind.
 

Fdkn

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Many of those games thought they were bigger than they are. The year has 12 months, not 3.
 

pswii60

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We need new stuff. But not new stuff that is just like last gen's stuff but with a new name. We need generation defining new IP, and 3 years in we are still waiting.
 

RexNovis

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I see it as a combination of the market tiring of heavily iterated franchises and publishers releasing so many new games so close to one another. Its clear to me going by the biggest debuts thus far this gen (all new IP) that the market wants fresh new ideas and new IP. The success of BF1 can in large part be tied to a fresh new idea that mixes up what was a stagnating formula.

Funnily enough rather than the very negative outlook so many seem to have in regards to this recent trend, it actually has me pretty excited about what sort of shifts it might inspire in the industry. I'm hopeful that we see more investment in these sorts of mixups/new ideas along with more new IPs going forward.

People want Dinosaur Games and it shows.
Yes! Preach!
 
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Battlefield 1 performing so well while releasing on fewer platforms than BF4 did (and the larger installed base) is solid for sure. Hopefully the WWI setting doing great will bode well for DICE to return to WWII with the next Battlefield.
 

brandonh83

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I will just take this space to say that Titanfall 2 is an incredibly well designed game with fantastic and imaginative level design for a modern shooter and... yes there's also a good multiplayer on top of that.

Do what you will.
 

JayEH

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Yeah I've noticed this lately...it might be the wake up call the industry has been needing this gen. Too many safe bets lately. Sequels/remasters out the ass. People want new stuff. Shame about titanfall but that was all on EA being stupid. Skylanders though wow, that's quite the fall. Mafia selling so well is so weird considering the mixed reactions.
 

Elios83

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Btw maybe publishers will understand that it's time to introduce new IPs and focus on innovation instead of trying to feed us up with almost the same games every holiday season.
But that might be too hard to do for them so the other possible outcome is that we'll just see less and less AAA games.....
 

AHA-Lambda

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BF1's success may well be an indication people just want something new or at least the appearance of it being new =/

Stop caring about NPD numbers. They don't include digital.
As true as this is, digital increases will not be able to account for losses this steep.
Not when the digital average remains at 30%
 

Y2Kev

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Stop caring about NPD numbers. They don't include digital.
Even with digital it's not like these are not flopping. Do you think digital will get gow4 to 2 million?

You know what I've discovered? This industry will have four games a year soon
 

Gunslinger

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I will just take this space to say that Titanfall 2 is an incredibly well designed game with fantastic and imaginative level design for a modern shooter and... yes there's also a good multiplayer on top of that.

Do what you will.
I agree with you. I beat the campaign last night man that game is so much fun to play. The action feels super fluid.
 
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Tomb raider &#128079;&#127998;&#128079;&#127998;&#128079;&#127998;&#128079;&#127998; and I'm not ashamed of it.

Its sad but the writing was already on the wall a full year in advance. I knew this would happen and here we are.
 

Y2Kev

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Yeah I've noticed this lately...it might be the wake up call the industry has been needed this gen. Too many safe bets lately. Sequels/remasters out the ass. People want new stuff. Shame about titanfall but that was all on EA being stupid. Skylanders though wow, that's quite the fall. Mafia selling so well is so weird considering the mixed reactions.
Skyrim sold great!
 

RoboPlato

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I really hope that post publishers learn the right lesson from this. It's not that people don't want these games, it's that they're not big enough to launch in the holiday season against all the mega franchises
 

Orayn

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Consumers are voting with their wallets -- Well received games (by critics and consumers alike) will continue to be successful in future iterations (See BF1). Poorly received games will not be as well received (TF2/GeoW4).

The reality is that developers/publishers can't just put out games and hope that people buy them even if they didn't like the previous games.
What are you talking about? BF1 and Titanfall 2 were both extremely well received and have almost exactly the same average review score. Gears 4 reviewed only slightly worse than its predecessors.
 

oti

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This is what you get for killing off the Tennis genre, video game industry.

This is what you get.
 
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