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Marathon approaching 15k CCU low (sponsored by coachmcguirk91 - still having a blast)

Plague Doctor said:
Best you are going to get is the typical Jason Shreier article that boils down to:

"Devs had to work an extra hour on a Thursdays and were burned out" and "Managers sucked at Project Management Software and Timetables" and "Upper Management were meanie jerkface heads to rank and file".


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This shit really does write itself huh?
 
Hollywood Hitman said:
9400 currently lol seems even lower than normal, isn't there some sorta magical update today?
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It's actually up a significant percent day over day and should peak higher in a few hours than yesterday. It's also slightly higher than it was 1 week ago, which is a first I think.

Of course a significant percent of not very much is still not very much. We are talking 700 more players online than exactly 1 week ago lol
 
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IntentionalPun said:
It's actually up a significant percent day over day and should peak higher in a few hours than yesterday. It's also slightly higher than it was 1 week ago, which is a first I think.

Of course a significant percent of not very much is still not very much. We are talking 700 more players online than exactly 1 week ago lol
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It literally dropped since I posted that to 8700.
 
Hollywood Hitman said:
It literally dropped since I posted that to 8700.
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Compare the times between today and yesterday, and just look at the general chart. There is a dip that happens right about 6PM EST in the US and then it should start going up soon for about 4 horus.

At 22:00 UTC there were over 1,000 more players today than at 22:00 UTC yesterday. By 23:00 UTC yesterday the CCU had recovered slightly and then went up until 02:00 UTC.

It happens every day (except Sunday basically)
 
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I think typically it spikes between 6pm PST/9pm EST and 8pm PST/11pm EST. I think Tuesdays are typically a little higher than Mondays. Last Tuesday was 11.5K iirc. We'll have to wait for the StreetsofBeige nightly news report for more details.
 
Looks like today's update gained a bunch of gamers. The only Tuesday with a bigger gain was big patch day.

6 pm completed hour tracking.

Today 9.4k
Yesterday 8.3k
+1.1k or +13%.
Yesterday peak 10.3k + 13% = 11.6k est.

Another way to estimate tonight. Last Tuesday, from 6 pm to peak was 1.39x factor. Today's 9.4k x 1.39 = 11.5k est.

CrustyBritches said:
I think typically it spikes between 6pm PST/9pm EST and 8pm PST/11pm EST. I think Tuesdays are typically a little higher than Mondays. Last Tuesday was 11.5K iirc. We'll have to wait for the StreetsofBeige nightly news report for more details.
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Peaks are typically somewhere in the 10 or 11 pm est hour. Except Sunday's where the peak is usually the 3 or 4 pm est hour.

As for the nightly low, it's consistently the 6 am hour. Occasionally it's been the 5 or 7 am hour, but the 6 am hour is almost always a good pick.
 
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StreetsofBeige said:
Looks like today's update gained a bunch of gamers. The only Tuesday with a bigger gain was big patch day.

6 pm completed hour tracking.

Today 9.4k
Yesterday 8.3k
+1.1k or +13%.
Yesterday peak 10.3k + 13% = 11.6k est.

Another way to estimate tonight. Last Tuesday, from 6 pm to peak was 1.39x factor. Today's 9.4k x 1.39 = 11.5k est.


Peaks are typically somewhere in the 10 or 11 pm est hour. Except Sunday's where the peak is usually the 3 or 4 pm est hour.

As for the nightly low, it's consistently the 6 am hour. Occasionally it's been the 5 or 7 am hour, but the 6 am hour is almost always a good pick.
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My guess is this is returning players that already bought the game and not actual new players, but could be wrong and they suddenly somehow got an influx of noob players.
It'll be interesting to see if this hold for the rest of the week although I expect the usual bump on Cryo day. If it bumps on back to back Tuesdays, could it be the making of an OmegaGenre?
 
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StreetsofBeige said:
Looks like today's update gained a bunch of gamers. The only Tuesday with a bigger gain was big patch day.

6 pm completed hour tracking.

Today 9.4k
Yesterday 8.3k
+1.1k or +13%.
Yesterday peak 10.3k + 13% = 11.6k est.

Another way to estimate tonight. Last Tuesday, from 6 pm to peak was 1.39x factor. Today's 9.4k x 1.39 = 11.5k est.


Peaks are typically somewhere in the 10 or 11 pm est hour. Except Sunday's where the peak is usually the 3 or 4 pm est hour.

As for the nightly low, it's consistently the 6 am hour. Occasionally it's been the 5 or 7 am hour, but the 6 am hour is almost always a good pick.
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So if it can stay flat or see a little bump week over week, that will be the the 2nd time it's done that iirc. We might be nearing the lower bounds for peak ccu at around 10-12K. I still think we'll get under 10K peak by the end of the month.

The bigger issue will become the revenue battle against Femboy Futa House. Are those numbers good enough to support 500+ devs on Bellevue salaries?
 
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Timberwolf25 said:
My guess is this is returning players that already bought the game and not actual new players, but could be wrong and they suddenly somehow got an influx of noob players.
It'll be interesting to see if this hold for the rest of the week although I expect the usual bump on Cryo day. If it bumps on back to back Tuesdays, could it be the making of an OmegaGenre?
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Highly doubtful it's new sales. Maybe you got like 10 copies sold. It's existing gamers logging back on. The game is still ranked at 203rd place, which is highly doubtful any game at that rank is making big money.

I dont think a Retro Rewind Video Store sim, SOMA with 161 CCU, or Naraka at 987 CCU are raking in moolah.
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First Week over week increase now that Marathon has exceeded last weeks peak of 11.5K.

All I saw previously was the balance patch notes and was confused why it was up so much.

Then I saw that they are doing double XP for the rest of the season and dropping guaranteed keys off Warden's on every map. Basically they've done a massive lolly scramble for the end of the season to try and get people to come back. Will be interesting to see if this increase carries over to the weekend.
 
StreetsofBeige said:
Sad thing is the $3.6B is actually $2.4B inherent asset value after the $1.2B retention bonus is paid out.

Impairment write down charges have totaled around $750M. Which means Bungie's inherent value is now about $1.65B. So Sony just slashed it's value by 30% the past 6 months alone.

And this doesnt even include any annual operational losses too, since that is an income statement thing. The above is a balance sheet thing.

There will be more impairment charges to come. I still stand by my estimate Bungie is worth $500M. Just need more time for more write downs. And this doesnt even include annual losses which arent even part of it. I'm just going by balance sheet value.

Based off what the studio is right now, the entire company's value is whatever Destiny is worth. And you never know, a Destiny 3 could be a smash hit just like 1/2. Marathon, Myth, Oni and all the other old IPs they got from the 1990s are worthless.
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So you think Sony will need to write off another $1.1 Billion?!
 
Conflict NZ said:
First Week over week increase now that Marathon has exceeded last weeks peak of 11.5K.

All I saw previously was the balance patch notes and was confused why it was up so much.

Then I saw that they are doing double XP for the rest of the season and dropping guaranteed keys off Warden's on every map. Basically they've done a massive lolly scramble for the end of the season to try and get people to come back. Will be interesting to see if this increase carries over to the weekend.
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It's a sand castle at this point. unless/until Marathon actually starts to sell copies...these fluctuations in CCUs are meaningless
 
Conflict NZ said:
First Week over week increase now that Marathon has exceeded last weeks peak of 11.5K.

All I saw previously was the balance patch notes and was confused why it was up so much.

Then I saw that they are doing double XP for the rest of the season and dropping guaranteed keys off Warden's on every map. Basically they've done a massive lolly scramble for the end of the season to try and get people to come back. Will be interesting to see if this increase carries over to the weekend.
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That makes sense now
 
Here's the daily based on UTC (Which cuts off before US peak time so those numbers won't be in till tomorrow

Monday was bad, Tuesday is worse. So the peak is higher tonight, even higher than last Tuesday, but I think we're seeing a concentration where the more players are playing at the same time, but not overall meaning that the DAU is still dropping.

Code: 
| Game      | Date UTC       | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range      | DAU midpoint |
| Marathon  | Mon 2026-05-18 | 24.0       |  6,613  | 10,374   | 158,709      | 52,903-126,967 | 79,355       |
| Marathon  | Tue 2026-05-19 | 24.0       |  6,346  | 10,226   | 152,302      | 50,767-121,842 | 76,151       |
 
falconhoof said:
Here's the daily based on UTC (Which cuts off before US peak time so those numbers won't be in till tomorrow

Monday was bad, Tuesday is worse. So the peak is higher tonight, even higher than last Tuesday, but I think we're seeing a concentration where the more players are playing at the same time, but not overall meaning that the DAU is still dropping.

Code: 
| Game      | Date UTC       | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range      | DAU midpoint |
| Marathon  | Mon 2026-05-18 | 24.0       |  6,613  | 10,374   | 158,709      | 52,903-126,967 | 79,355       |
| Marathon  | Tue 2026-05-19 | 24.0       |  6,346  | 10,226   | 152,302      | 50,767-121,842 | 76,151       |
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The position on the DAU charts definitely implies this. The fact that it is surrounded by games with less than half the peak CCU points to there being a smaller playerbase that plays significantly longer sessions, likely making the true DAU lower than your mid point estimate.
 
Peaked at 11.9k. A big gain vs yesterday, similar to big patch day a month ago at +16%

The first time in its history a week over week comparison day was a positive at +3%

All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 11.9k is -76.4k or -87%

Today vs yesterday: 11.9k vs 10.3k (+1.6k or +16%)

Yesterday's low 2.9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 3.4k

Tue vs Tue: 11.9k vs 11.5k (+0.4k or +3%). Trending lately is about -5 to -15% since early May. Today was a positive

Ratio method to estimate peaks and valleys
Mon-Thur 3.3:1. For example, a peak of 12k will have a low of 3.6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users: 163
Global Top Sellers: 166
Weekly Top Sellers: Unknown. Not on top 100
Top Rated Games: 6,162 (83.71%)
 
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falconhoof said:
Here's the daily based on UTC (Which cuts off before US peak time so those numbers won't be in till tomorrow

Monday was bad, Tuesday is worse. So the peak is higher tonight, even higher than last Tuesday, but I think we're seeing a concentration where the more players are playing at the same time, but not overall meaning that the DAU is still dropping.

Code: 
| Game      | Date UTC       | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range      | DAU midpoint |
| Marathon  | Mon 2026-05-18 | 24.0       |  6,613  | 10,374   | 158,709      | 52,903-126,967 | 79,355       |
| Marathon  | Tue 2026-05-19 | 24.0       |  6,346  | 10,226   | 152,302      | 50,767-121,842 | 76,151       |
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giphy.gif

Me still waiting for it drop below 10k.
 
June 2nd state of play. They will announce something to boost marathon. Free weekend, f2p, going on ps+, something.

The bleed continues but at the same time we have returners. Imagine the game as a tram and there are always people getting on and off at a pretty steady clip. Bungie's job is to try to get them to stay longer and to get more people on in the first place.

The prepatch then is a way to prevent the numbers from stagnating before S2 has a chance to boost them. We are already seeing the S2 boost. Some people planning on returning for S2 will inevitably hop in before S2 starts to get their bearings.

When you look at the prepatch it is not a small one there was a considerable amount of thought and effort put into something that of course only lasts a couple of weeks. So why was this important enough to take up resources? Because it prevents the game from dropping into our predicted ranges before S2 starts. It's a tool to retain players and draw returners back in.
 
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All Bungie need to do for me personally is announce Marathon as their next big ting for the future while supporting Destiny 2 by bringing back all the previous expansions and episodes starting with Red War for new players and reduced price for existing owners.
Then when it's finished announce Destiny 3.
 
SmokSmog said:
Lol, Marathon already lost all the steam from yesterday, now at 18 CEST it scored 5950 players while on Monday it was 6350.
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Yup. I saw that too. Exact same data I was going to compare too since yesterday was maintenance day.

Adding to your data.

Today 12 pm 5,950
Mon 12 pm 6,350, peak 10,300
Last Weds 12 pm 6,400, peak 12,000
Yesterday peak 11,900

Either way, today is down about 6% vs two 12 pm comparisons. Just a matter of which peak to go by to estimate a final peak today. If yesterday is used, today's estimate will be roughly 11.2k.
 
Conflict NZ said:
European peak collapsed today, lowest euro peak ever, but US peak saved the day. Last day of Cryo being closed for the season, I wonder how Sunday will look.
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Will be interesting how cryo 24/7 affects the final two weeks. I've been a supporter from the beginning it should had been 24/7 from the start as it gives all gamers opportunity to grind up and do cryo when they feel like it whereas Zegler wanted it "to be a weekend event". But we'll see. Maybe I'm wrong and if there's too much cryo it kills the CCU as it spreads a thin gamer base even thinner. At least when I suggested it, the game was probably still at 50 or 60k. Not an apples to apples comparison anyway since it's end of season and they added extra XP and loot drops, but whatever. We'll see how 24/7 cryo affects the CCU either way.

Will probably come in ballpark 11k.
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10.8k. Close enough.

Peaked at 10.8k. After a big gain yesterday, it lost most of it back as usual after a one day spike. Th second lowest peak compared to Mon's 10.3k

All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 10.8k is -77.5k or -88%

Today vs yesterday: 10.8k vs 11.9k (-1.1k or -9%)

Yesterday's low 3.3k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 3k

Wed vs Wed: 10.8k vs 12k (-1.2k or -10%). Trending lately is about -5 to -15% since early May

Ratio method to estimate peaks and valleys
Mon-Thur 3.3:1. For example, a peak of 12k will have a low of 3.6k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users: 163
Global Top Sellers: 189
Weekly Top Sellers: Unknown. Not on top 100
Top Rated Games: 6,161 (83.71%)
 
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