MisterFalcon
Member
That poster is from April, since then the guidelines have changed. This is too much for some people to grasp that things can change with more information.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check
- Thread starter keraj37
- Start date
- Status
The Stadia of world-ending pandemics.
Whatever happened to this? Now it's in vogue to wear masks! I thought I might kill somebody's grandma if I don't wear a mask??
Read the text again, use your brain, and see where it differs from what is talked about today.
carlosrox
Banned
Yeah something differs alright. The goalposts moved. As they keep moving.
MisterFalcon
Member
Imagine if the goalposts regarding disease and treatment never moved. You'd still be stuck with trying to cure diseases by bloodletting or perfumes to drive off the miasmas.
KevinMiller
Neo Member
The World Health Organization is gradually reducing the heat of passion. But individual countries are only too happy to tighten quarantine measures and restrict people's freedom. It infuriates me(
Stiflers Mom
Banned
Wtf is your point ? It’s not a numbers game but people’s life . And it affected her life . That to me is worth more than graphs and numbers .
but statistics say young people are fine
While true, you cannot run a country like that.
It says "it does not keep yourself safe from infection", which is still true.But, You don't wear it to keep yourself safe, you wear it to keep others safe in case you have it. Which you would know if you would use your brain and listen to people that know more than you.
Last edited:
carlosrox
Banned
Ah so it's like The Walking Dead, we all have it and we didn't know it. Cool story.
Last edited:
The virus peaked at the same time in NYC as it did it the state of New York as a whole, despite the state having much lower seroprevalence levels. As the virus spread from NYC to the rest of the state, we should have seen a second spike as the virus reached the fabled 15-25% mark. Now look at Sweden, where cases are down everywhere but with widely differing serology levels. If reaching 15-25% is what is stopping the virus, we should expect to see similar prevalence where the virus is no longer growing.
If the virus is stopped region-by-region, with the densest regions going first, then it suggests herd immunity is the cause. But if the virus is stopped everywhere at the same time, irrespective of prevalence levels, then it suggests the lockdown is the cause. And if the virus has really burnt out in a given region, cases and deaths should drop to zero, not remain flat.
Last edited:
DeepBreath87
Banned
But it’s never just one thing. It’s everything. It’s changes in behavior and increasing immunity. Herd immunity happens on a gradient.
Right but the claim I am addressing is that what we do is irrelevant because we will reach herd immunity "regardless of whether almost nothing was done, or the most authoritarian measures imaginable."
So in my terminology, when the lockdown is the "cause" of the peak in cases, it does not mean it is the only factor. It just means that if we went back to living 100% as before, cases would start to climb again. On the other hand if whatever we did, the virus would not spread, then we could say that the virus had peaked due to (complete) herd immunity. When people talk about herd immunity being a solution, it almost never seems to involve a nuanced claim about being able to live with a virus whose threat has been diminished by increased population immunity. Rather it seems to be presented as get-out-of-jail-free card, that just allows us to go back to living our lives as if the virus was a bad dream we just woke up from.
Last edited:
DeepBreath87
Banned
Well anyone claiming that isn’t living in reality. Of course there is the other side of that coin where people act like any spread of the virus is reason for panic. The truth is, as almost always, somewhere in the middle. Mitigation efforts combined with monitoring hospital capacity is the only way through. But if we’re going to shut down schools every time there’s 3 or 4 or even 20 cases, that is no answer. Because in that case, schools are closed pretty much forever.
Mobile Suit Gooch
Grundle: The Awakening
You can call it a plan-demic.
12Goblins
Lil’ Gobbie
The Stadia of world-ending pandemics.
Whatever happened to this? Now it's in vogue to wear masks! I thought I might kill somebody's grandma if I don't wear a mask??
thank you for telling everyone how clueless you are still after all this time...? its one thing being inept but desperately wanting to let everyone know is a head scratcher
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
It baffles me people still don't listen to simple science, and we still have no federal response matching that of the numerous nations that have recovered or are well into recovery. Reopening schools - what could possibly go wrong?
Notre Dame moved classes online a week into the fall semester to stop the spread of new outbreak:
Notre Dame and Michigan State Shifting Online as Campus Outbreaks Grow (Published 2020)
After 147 people tested positive for the coronavirus, Notre Dame said it would shift to remote instruction for at least two weeks. Michigan State told undergraduates not to come to campus.www.nytimes.com
After four COVID-19 outbreaks in one week, UNC Chapel Hill reverts to online-only classes:
After four COVID-19 outbreaks in one week, UNC Chapel Hill reverts to online-only classes - The Boston Globe
North Carolina’s flagship university canceled in-person classes for undergraduates just a week into the fall semester Monday as college campuses around the US scramble to deal with coronavirus clusters linked in some cases to student housing, off-campus parties and packed bars.www.bostonglobe.com
3rd Cherokee County school closes due to new COVID-19 cases:
3rd Cherokee County school closes due to new COVID-19 cases
CANTON, Ga. (CBS46) -- A third Cherokee County school has temporarily closed due to newly reported cases of COVID-19.www.cbs46.com
Also from Cherokee County, Georgia - More than 2,000 students, teachers and staff quarantined after outbreak following school reopenings:
More than 2,000 students, teachers and staff quarantined in several schools | CNN
For many US schools welcoming students back, a return to in-person learning was abruptly halted after new Covid-19 cases.www.cnn.com
Wow, usually one has to go out of their way to find antiscience, COVID deniers, and anti-maskers. /r/conspiracy/ on Reddit, Infowars, maybe the comments section in a Ben Shapiro video.
People simply catching the Coronavirus isn't an example of things "going wrong." We need low-risk people to catch it.
BadBurger, do tell how you can expect nations to "recover" without some degree of immunity? How do you reach immunity without a safe and readily available vaccine?
diffusionx
Gold Member
Those nations that people like BadBurger praised for their authoritarian response are in fact still dealing with it, as we are seeing in Australia, Germany, Netherlands, etc. Because, for the millionth time, this is a contagious virus that will continue to spread until it runs out of people to infect. You cannot lockdown your way out of this.
prag16
Banned
Correction, when people talking about vaccine induced herd immunity, sure, that's likely what they're talking about... a get out of jail free card. But advocates for natural herd immunity while protecting the vulnerable have understood from the start that wouldn't send cases all the way to zero. The population immunity as was said, works on a gradient. It isn't an on/off switch. The point is to make life manageable for the vast majority with the threat diminished by hindering spread. Nobody ever said this would drop it to zero right away.
The dense areas of course got there first, but this doesn't mean the lockdown saved the less dense areas. Being less dense, the spread would be slower to begin with. But the smaller flareups will be manageable. Regardless, by your logic we need endless lockdown until the uncertain prospect of the vaccine saving us at some uncertain point in time. Fuck that shit.
diffusionx
Gold Member
Right. Nobody is saying the case count falls off a cliff. NYC gets about 200 cases a day by now officially, so in reality probably 2000 or so. But nobody is dying and hospitals have adequate resources (by NYC standards - even on a good day hospitals are like 80% full). The point is that the the spread of the virus is manageable and can be dealt with as it works through the population. If a bunch of 20 year olds are getting COVID, it is not a big deal. I saw a bunch of kids playing hoops in a park yesterday. Even if they all get COVID, it's probably far worse for their physical and mental health to be stuck inside indefinitely for fear of getting COVID.
The goal should be to get back to living our lives, period. We should be continuing to loosen up these dumb restrictions while making sure it is not triggering an explosion in hospitalizations. That is something that Texas, Florida, CA, were doing until the protests hit, actually. People blame the explosion in cases on the reopenings but they started reopening in early May whereas cases didn't explode until mid-June, 2 weeks after protests started.
Last edited:
cryptoadam
Banned
Remember a vaccine is probably going to be 50% effective. Maybe if we are really luck its 75%. Flu vaccines range from 45-65% on a year to year basis.
So even with a vaccine there is still going to be a need for herd immunity. You can get the vaccine and still have a 1 in 2 shot of catching CV.
Anyways its all about social distancing and hand washing. Wear masks indoors when you can't social distance. Thats what we did hear and we have like 10-40 cases a day, last 2 days less than 20 and we have like 0-1 person dying a day if that.
Under 50 we had less than 25 people die in total.
So even with a vaccine there is still going to be a need for herd immunity. You can get the vaccine and still have a 1 in 2 shot of catching CV.
Anyways its all about social distancing and hand washing. Wear masks indoors when you can't social distance. Thats what we did hear and we have like 10-40 cases a day, last 2 days less than 20 and we have like 0-1 person dying a day if that.
Under 50 we had less than 25 people die in total.
iconmaster
Banned
That was an ugly second hump, but things are looking better now. As before, I leave the most recent week off the chart since that number is the least reliable.
cryptoadam
Banned
That was an ugly second hump, but things are looking better now. As before, I leave the most recent week off the chart since that number is the least reliable.
One thing about this is we can see that the "2nd wave" was way less deadly than the first wave. Look at the 2 peaks it looks like over 50% difference in deaths. The curve also looks a lot longer 2 months vs 1 month.
Overall for all the fear mongering about the 2nd wave and how horrible it was, it was pretty tame compared to the North East massacre perpetuated by Cuomo and his merry gang.
There is a point at which, given the rate at which a virus spreads (in an unprotected community), enough people will be immune for the virus to be unable to fully replenish the hosts it is losing to recovery/death. When that happens, it will die off rapidly, since every infection cycle it will be losing hosts. That's what I mean by herd immunity, and it is an all or nothing thing, at least for a given population and rate of transmission. When herd immunity has been achieved in this sense, we can literally do whatever we want and we will be fine, since the virus will be unable to get a foothold.
Up to that point, the number of new cases will be accelerating, albeit at a diminishing rate. So if we do literally nothing, the number of cases will continue to increase, at a rate that depends on how close we are to the "herd immunity" threshold. So if herd immunity is at 60% and we are at 55% prevalence, it will probably be pretty manageable. But if it is 60% and we are at 20%, not so much.
So I can totally accept that the virus is going to be a lot easier to manage as more people get infected. What I was responding to was what I interpreted to be your claim that it is irrelevant what actions we take and we just need to wait for 25% of people to get infected and then go on with living our lives as if nothing happened. Because we can only make that claim if 25% is the herd immunity threshold. If saying that the virus burnt out NYC means that the combination of social distancing and existing immunity made the virus manageable (so that R was kept below 1), I can totally get behind that. But that still depends on reducing the rate of transmission by actively cutting off the transmission routes for the virus.
This isn't a pro or anti-lockdown argument. It's an argument that says that without human action the number of new cases will continue to accelerate, unless we are at the herd immunity threshold. (And that we can only stop the acceleration by keeping R below 1). Maybe you think this is fine and we should just let this happen. Personally, I think that lockdowns are the nuclear option, and at this point we should do everything we can to avoid them while keeping R below 1. But that still leaves social distancing, contact tracing, mask wearing (assuming it is actually effective), and any treatments we can develop to reduce transmissibility, such as that nasal spray.
Last edited:
Explosive Zombie
Banned
cryptoadam
Banned
Remember on the first few pages when we were all freaking out about China and how authoritarian they were being.
cryptoadam
Banned
arkhamguy123
Member
It's semi interesting we, humanity, have a pretty close playbook right in our back pocket, two in fact, with H1N1 and it's deadlier variant the 1918-1920 Spanish flu, and we refuse to pull it out and read it. All this drama alludes me because the way I see it it's as simple as, there is a contagion circulating the globe, it will do its thing for 1-2 years with its final months mostly being a none issue as its past its peak and then it will diminish itself naturally, manually with a vaccine, or a combination of both. Tragically more people will die, thats inevitable I'm afraid. But all this freaking out about the second wave in Europe in Asia to me its like "Yeah, thats what's gonna happen. This may be their last depending on the herd immunity threshold, or they'll have one or two more and then it's done."
12Goblins
Lil’ Gobbie
DeepBreath87
Banned
In 2 more weeks, the US will be essentially where it was in June, averaging under 30,000 cases per day. Deaths will trail cases and we'll be at a fine place. We will see how the school openings go where they happen vs where they don't. It will be a good experiment on what works and what doesn't. But the US is doing fine without lockdowns. Its not like Florida or Texas ever locked down. We seem to be finding our way in most places. There will be no more lockdowns.Hm I wonder why that is
pel1300
Member
If you're implying that Americans are uniquely irresponsible about this virus - just take a look at how people in the 3rd world were behaving. I was in Cambodia during Febuary to mid-March. Then Indonesia from March to just 10 days ago(trapped, stranded). In both countries people were acting as if they didn't give a shit.Hm I wonder why that is
Look at South Korea and Japan now. People there are at their limit/fed up/over it.
Japan's coronavirus fatigue is fueling defiance in Tokyo, even as the case count rises | CNN
Ayumi Sato is trying to be careful. But she’s had enough. Lockdown fatigue is setting in for Sato, a 34-year-old stock trader who lives in Tokyo, and she’s not alone.
www.cnn.com
I am a member of multiple expats in Korea groups online - I see them bitching about the local people not wearing masks.... yes Korea the gold standard in Asia for this....and S. Korea mandated masks only a few days ago (but it's not being enforced much).
Last edited:
Liljagare
Member
Sweden, my sweden.
There might be up to 85% overreporting of Covid-19 deaths, due to doctors not wanting to under report, the national number will not be revised until the end of the year. The errors are too large to figure out, but doctors wanted to report if there was the slightest inclination of a possibility for the patient having Covid-19.
The overmortality is reported as statistically -9% for the half year, when you add in the massive immigration that has happened..
Where are those motherfuckers that stated Sweden did horribly? There are two of you in the thread, and I stated, there wasn't any overmortality, go and look at the statistics now? We are experiencing lesser deaths statistically, compared to the last 10 years.
www.aftonbladet.se
"Covid-19 can be attributed with direct corrolation to 15% of the cases."
But, on a fun sidenote, this years flu season is expected to be one of the worst in the last 20 years.. So, hope that one remains mild..
There might be up to 85% overreporting of Covid-19 deaths, due to doctors not wanting to under report, the national number will not be revised until the end of the year. The errors are too large to figure out, but doctors wanted to report if there was the slightest inclination of a possibility for the patient having Covid-19.
The overmortality is reported as statistically -9% for the half year, when you add in the massive immigration that has happened..
Where are those motherfuckers that stated Sweden did horribly? There are two of you in the thread, and I stated, there wasn't any overmortality, go and look at the statistics now? We are experiencing lesser deaths statistically, compared to the last 10 years.
Socialstyrelsen: Granska de svenska dödstalen
Det råder fortfarande osäkerhet kring hur många svenskar som dött som en direkt följd av covid-19. Socialstyrelsen uppmanar nu regionerna att göra fler undersök
www.aftonbladet.se
"Covid-19 can be attributed with direct corrolation to 15% of the cases."
But, on a fun sidenote, this years flu season is expected to be one of the worst in the last 20 years..
So, hope that one remains mild..
Last edited:
Liljagare
Member
cryptoadam
Banned
Liljagare
Member
And, you were totally wrong.
Like I said, you have to wait for the true statistics.
Liljagare
Member
P
pLow7
and
D
Dr.Guru of Peru
If you want a bigger understanding of those numbers, I suggest you go and read the reports regarding suicide in the world. There was one nation that also overreported, just to make sure.
In that situation, I think it was correct, in the Covid-19 situation, I am not sure, because it made other nations afraid of following Swedens example.
If you want a bigger understanding of those numbers, I suggest you go and read the reports regarding suicide in the world. There was one nation that also overreported, just to make sure.
In that situation, I think it was correct, in the Covid-19 situation, I am not sure, because it made other nations afraid of following Swedens example.
Last edited:
Liljagare
Member
So go back again, use your brain, and realize how statistics can work when they are fundamentally wrongly reported.
15% of the reported Covid-19 deaths, in Sweden, can after examination be directly correlated to the virus.
Which I would think would support what Sweden and swedes did was the correct thing..
Behave like a swede.
Last edited:
Dr.Guru of Peru
played the long game
Wrong about what? Youve posted one article that mentions the excess mortality was a little lower than COVID deaths. Even if we were to assume that only the excess mortality represents COVID-19 deaths and that other countries don’t have to deal with any confounding variables, both of which are certainly not true, that still only reduces the death toll in Sweden by 15% at best. That’s still an order of magnitude greater than any of your Nordic neighbours.
And yes, there was excess mortality. Or at least there was in the article that you posted.
Last edited:
12Goblins
Lil’ Gobbie
bigsnack
Member
Sadly it won’t change the first semester of school for my kids. At least we are on the right track and I’m hopeful they will be in school after the New Year!
Shh, let him. Posting articles from "aftonbladet" ( A Tabloid ) to then go on and Quote people like a 14 year old to tell them "how" wrong they where, while simultaniously reading the statistics wrong.
You just need to look at this Graph (official statistics ) to understand it, lol.
BadBurger
Is 'That Pure Potato'
Pretty funny. But at the same time, so very sad.
www.cnn.com
Trump is envious of successful leaders who followed simple science. Instead of following in their steps he's blinded by his own ego and refuses to take action.
Fact check: Trump says New Zealand has had a 'big outbreak.' It reported 5 new cases on Thursday | CNN Politics
Trying to defend his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump has pointedly noted in August that there have been recent spikes in cases even in countries widely praised for their own pandemic efforts.
www.cnn.com
Trump is envious of successful leaders who followed simple science. Instead of following in their steps he's blinded by his own ego and refuses to take action.
BadBurger
Is 'That Pure Potato'
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.
Compared to yesterday: 46,500 New Cases, 1,404 New Deaths
The day before (what you responded to): 39,318 New Cases, 1,172 New Deaths
It's still increasing. The sad thing is as other countries brace for a probable second wave in the winter, the US never flattened the curve and is still embroiled within the first wave. Things are looking bleak. Pray we get either competent leadership or a vaccine, or else we're going to be stuck with thing for the foreseeable future.
Birdo
Banned
Leadership won't save you. It's the public who are fucking it up. No matter how strict a leader is, it doesn't matter if nobody listens (ie: westerers).
I have to get tested today because my idiot sister decided to visit whilst still testing positive
Stouffers
Banned
Can it be spread by semen/feces?I have to get tested today because my idiot sister decided to visit whilst still testing positive
DeepBreath87
Banned
Dude you’re either unaware of our numbers or you’re full of shit. Cases are way, way down. You never compare day to day. I would assume if you’ve been following this, you know that. Daily 7 day average peaked near the end of July at over 69,000. Now it’s down just over 46,000. So a decrease of 23,000 in under a month. That’s basically -33%. So no, it is not increasing unless you have a very strange definition of the word.Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.www.cdc.gov
Compared to yesterday: 46,500 New Cases, 1,404 New Deaths
The day before (what you responded to): 39,318 New Cases, 1,172 New Deaths
It's still increasing. The sad thing is as other countries brace for a probable second wave in the winter, the US never flattened the curve and is still embroiled within the first wave. Things are looking bleak. Pray we get either competent leadership or a vaccine, or else we're going to be stuck with thing for the foreseeable future.
Deaths will trail cases by 3 to 5 weeks, just like they did when cases increased in June.
Explosive Zombie
Banned
Yeah this is the correct way to look at it. You can also do it monthly. A problem with just going by case numbers every time someone is positive on tests for covid they're a new case even if they were already counted. either way the case numbers argument is a goal post shift from hospitalizations and deaths.
Last edited:
DeepBreath87
Banned
Case numbers fluctuate significantly based on which day of the week it is. Sundays and Mondays are the lowest every week because they are reporting weekend numbers, which are always lower due to fewer people being tested. All anyone has to do is look at the graph of cases over the last 6 months to see there is an obvious pattern to this.
7 day averages are helpful.
Comparing the same day in a previous week is helpful. So for instance you compare the number we get today to last Friday.
Comparing today to yesterday is absolutely not a good way to measure anything. And since he’s been in this thread for a while, he should be aware of that already.
Last edited:
- Status