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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Daily, depressing


Ah, the deaths per X million angle again, as if that means anything. I'll let the Axios reporter's reaction to Trump trying to use that meaningless, arbitrary presentation of the data do the talking for me:
LmgSWX3.png



Now, back to useful raw data - our daily depressing news that the US still has no federal response even as cases continue to rise:
9fWJ4eI.png



And of course, that is still leading to continued deaths in the US while other first world nations are flattened, and have been for a month:
tiA4rsX.png
So I don’t care about the argument you’re having with whoever. I just want to know if you really don’t understand why per capita numbers matter when comparing groups. You do understand why 100 people dying out of 1,000 is different than 1000 out of 10,000,000 right? Just as a matter of math and context.

Also, case number always rise because it’s a cumulative number. But the reality is the rate of increase in the US has slowed significantly over the last month. To paint to current trajectory in the US as depressing is kind of silly. The overall situation may not be good, but there is definite improvement.
 
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bigsnack

Member
So I don’t care about the argument you’re having with whoever. I just want to know if you really don’t understand why per capita numbers matter when comparing groups. You do understand why 100 people dying out of 1,000 is different than 10 out of 10,000,000 right? Just as a matter of math and context.

Also, case number always rise because it’s a cumulative number. But the reality is the rate of increase in the US has slowed significantly over the last month. To paint to current trajectory in the US as depressing is kind of silly. The overall situation may not be good, but there is definite improvement.

Yeah cumulative numbers, especially shown on a chart, don't have any value to me. I think non-cumulative weekly is the best chart to keep an eye on. Daily is OK as long as you take into account the natural ebb and flow of the weekly reporting. At this point, I'm only looking at hospitalizations and I'm ignoring everything else. Those give me a clear picture of who is being affected bad enough to need help.
 
Daily, depressing


Ah, the deaths per X million angle again, as if that means anything. I'll let the Axios reporter's reaction to Trump trying to use that meaningless, arbitrary presentation of the data do the talking for me:
LmgSWX3.png



Now, back to useful raw data - our daily depressing news that the US still has no federal response even as cases continue to rise:
9fWJ4eI.png



And of course, that is still leading to continued deaths in the US while other first world nations are flattened, and have been for a month:
tiA4rsX.png

Oh no, not a rise in asymptomatic cases due to more testing! Hey, what about those 70 NFL players who tested positive and then it was further scrutinized by a lab in New Jersey and NONE OF THEM WERE POSITIVE. Imagine the average non-football playing person receiving such scrutiny, but nah, we got "probable" cases lumped in with real cases (sore throat and headache? COVID!) and we've got people getting tested multiple times counted multiple times. Either way, case numbers has always been a GOALPOST SHIFT, the threat of the virus was overrun hospitals and DEATHS if those aren't on the rise you need to calm down and take a seat.
 

bigsnack

Member
For what it's worth, in LA county we currently have the lowest ICU admission rate since they began tracking the metric in April. Total hospitalizations are almost to the same level as when the data began being tracked as well. Our numbers are improving nearly 10% per day some days, which means we should be in very good shape in about 3-4 weeks. I don't know when the county will be willing to alter their remote learning plan, but if the numbers keep dropping this aggressively then I'm optimistic that we will see a change in that plan.

Keeping in mind that social distancing is at an absolute minimum, at least around where I am. Masks indoors when required, but otherwise next to nothing.

 
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BadBurger

Many “Whelps”! Handle It!
So I don’t care about the argument you’re having with whoever. I just want to know if you really don’t understand why per capita numbers matter when comparing groups. You do understand why 100 people dying out of 1,000 is different than 1000 out of 10,000,000 right? Just as a matter of math and context.

Also, case number always rise because it’s a cumulative number. But the reality is the rate of increase in the US has slowed significantly over the last month. To paint to current trajectory in the US as depressing is kind of silly. The overall situation may not be good, but there is definite improvement.

It's (yours) an arbitrary way of looking at the data in an attempt to make it look like the US response was somehow competent or comparable to others. Per capita means nothing, it's not even being used in a consistent context and manner by those who try to use it (more on that later). Their COVID-19 isn't "more deadly" than ours, as you suggestted. It's the same disease that may develop in people infected with the same virus.

But back to the arbitrary part - why not apply this filter when comparing the US to more populous nations? Why only cherry pick a subset of European countries?

znjSZ2a.png


Total deaths in China and India: 62, 253
Total population: 2,746,000,000

Total deaths in the United States: 176,806
Total population: 328,000,000

----------

See how silly it is to cherry pick data in such a way and try to focus on X number of cases or deaths per N population? Why not use the percentage of people who still subscribe to cable TV? Or who own red automobiles? Or what about using deaths per 500k instead 100 million (or whatever figure the Trump admin is using today)?

The funny thing is, is that at current trajectories the US will have worse looking figures than the countries you cited sooner rather than later anyways - so what then? Needlessly move the goal posts again while ignoring the full context of the data to try to prove a nothing of a point? Out of morbid curiosity I really am interested in what poorly thought out statistical garbage they dream up next.

And I chose those nations for obvious reasons: they're comparable to the US in governance, lifestyle, and modernization. Their healthcare systems are comparable in efficiency, though it should be noted that theirs' are far more accessible for all of their citizens. And, most importantly, they had a strong federal response even if some of their dunderhead leaders took several weeks longer than they should have (UK).

Finally, of course until it's eradicated case numbers rise. That's not some keen insight you're imparting there. The main difference here is that every other first world nation has enjoyed periods of flattening, consider spikes of a few dozen to a few hundred cases a concern - and over a thousand a catastrophe. Meanwhile we're still sacking them up by the tens of thousands because we still - still - don't have a federal response.

----------

As a side note, another sad story from the south: the University of Alabama tried to open early on August 19th. Predictably, they had an immediate outbreak: 566 cases in about six days

When will conservatives learn?


For what it's worth, in LA county we currently have the lowest ICU admission rate since they began tracking the metric in April. Total hospitalizations are almost to the same level as when the data began being tracked as well. Our numbers are improving nearly 10% per day some days, which means we should be in very good shape in about 3-4 weeks. I don't know when the county will be willing to alter their remote learning plan, but if the numbers keep dropping this aggressively then I'm optimistic that we will see a change in that plan.

Keeping in mind that social distancing is at an absolute minimum, at least around where I am. Masks indoors when required, but otherwise next to nothing.


Good luck, I'll be rooting for your community. We need some good news once in a while in the US about this pandemic.
 
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bigsnack

Member
BadBurger BadBurger , I think you brought up a point. I believe it actually is extremely valuable to look at why the death rate is lower in China. What it shows is that there could be an unidentified additional factor that increases or decreases mortality. Looking at the virus in a vacuum without other influences is not a scientifically sound approach. With the disease being vascular in nature, it may point to vascular health being a top priority to diminishing the virus long term. I'm hopeful that a vaccine will come and be the final death blow for C19, but what if there is no vaccine? Maybe the key to beating C19 is working on minimizing the other factors and diminishing the risk groups?
 

Joe T.

Member
Hey -1 person died today in my city. COVID bringing people back from the dead.

We crossed over into clown world a while ago. Remember "flatten the curve"? The goal is now apparently to keep cases below 10 in 1,000,000 judging by today's briefing. They brought up how South Korea was seen as a shining example of how to do things, that they had gotten cases down to 1 per million and are now back up to 10 inferring that's all it takes to require strengthening mitigation measures. They're basically telling us we've lost our liberty until a vaccine is forced onto us in that case, numbers be damned.
 

cryptoadam

Banned
We crossed over into clown world a while ago. Remember "flatten the curve"? The goal is now apparently to keep cases below 10 in 1,000,000 judging by today's briefing. They brought up how South Korea was seen as a shining example of how to do things, that they had gotten cases down to 1 per million and are now back up to 10 inferring that's all it takes to require strengthening mitigation measures. They're basically telling us we've lost our liberty until a vaccine is forced onto us in that case, numbers be damned.

Didn't see the conference today I stopped paying attention to those know nothings.

I mean we have 13 cases today. We have been below 100 cases since June 6th and last time more than 30 deaths was June 5th. The virus is pretty much dead here.

City of 2 million people and we are supposed to be shitting bricks because 13 people get sick LOL. Overall we did pretty good job here, it was the government that fucked up. 86% of our deaths are in LTCs. Under 50 >25 people died. We had about 600 people die outside the LTC's over 6/7 months. If you take out the old age homes the general population actually did a damn good job (no thanks to Legault and Arruda) and even with re opening up the city back at the end of May we never got a second explosion.
 
It's (yours) an arbitrary way of looking at the data in an attempt to make it look like the US response was somehow competent or comparable to others. Per capita means nothing, it's not even being used in a consistent context and manner by those who try to use it (more on that later). Their COVID-19 isn't "more deadly" than ours, as you suggestted. It's the same disease that may develop in people infected with the same virus.

But back to the arbitrary part - why not apply this filter when comparing the US to more populous nations? Why only cherry pick a subset of European countries?

znjSZ2a.png


Total deaths in China and India: 62, 253
Total population: 2,746,000,000

Total deaths in the United States: 176,806
Total population: 328,000,000

----------

See how silly it is to cherry pick data in such a way and try to focus on X number of cases or deaths per N population? Why not use the percentage of people who still subscribe to cable TV? Or who own red automobiles? Or what about using deaths per 500k instead 100 million (or whatever figure the Trump admin is using today)?

The funny thing is, is that at current trajectories the US will have worse looking figures than the countries you cited sooner rather than later anyways - so what then? Needlessly move the goal posts again while ignoring the full context of the data to try to prove a nothing of a point? Out of morbid curiosity I really am interested in what poorly thought out statistical garbage they dream up next.

And I chose those nations for obvious reasons: they're comparable to the US in governance, lifestyle, and modernization. Their healthcare systems are comparable in efficiency, though it should be noted that theirs' are far more accessible for all of their citizens. And, most importantly, they had a strong federal response even if some of their dunderhead leaders took several weeks longer than they should have (UK).

Finally, of course until it's eradicated case numbers rise. That's not some keen insight you're imparting there. The main difference here is that every other first world nation has enjoyed periods of flattening, consider spikes of a few dozen to a few hundred cases a concern - and over a thousand a catastrophe. Meanwhile we're still sacking them up by the tens of thousands because we still - still - don't have a federal response.

----------

As a side note, another sad story from the south: the University of Alabama tried to open early on August 19th. Predictably, they had an immediate outbreak: 566 cases in about six days

When will conservatives learn?




Good luck, I'll be rooting for your community. We need some good news once in a while in the US about this pandemic.
You're confusing me with the guy you were arguing with originally. I haven't compared the US to anybody.

I'm just talking about statistics generally. It appears you don't understand math very well. If you can't understand why per capita numbers are more important than absolute totals, then there isn't any reason to take you seriously.

I'll ask you once again, which is worse: 10 deaths out of 100 people or 1000 deaths out of 10,000,000?
 
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Joe T.

Member


"It added that it had reported the self-test kits, which it said had been exported from China to several countries around the world, to other European health authorities as well as the World Health Organisation."

 
Daily, depressing


Ah, the deaths per X million angle again, as if that means anything.

If you don't understand why the percentage of deaths in your country is more important than an arbitrary daily snapshot of deaths when it comes to how effective your pandemic response has been, then you are hopeless.

Nobody with any critical thinking ability whatsoever is impressed that New York City systematically killed all the people who were super susceptible to the virus and thus has almost no deaths today.
 


"It added that it had reported the self-test kits, which it said had been exported from China to several countries around the world, to other European health authorities as well as the World Health Organisation."



I find It fascinating How everything MUST come from China no matter what as If China is the only country in position to fabricate everything concernning the pandemic.

The other day, I Saw countries fighting each other even to get simple masks wich sounded laughable as they are ridiculous low cost shit that you can even make one by yourself.

Its pretty obvious How China hás been captilizing so much money from the West during this whole pandemic, and I wouldnt think It would be just a mad conspiracy theorism Chinas interest or making some country have a huge economy stagnation, and then You see this bad teste kits with false positives comming from them.
 

Joe T.

Member
New study out of Belgium shows HQC had positive results among 8,000+ patients:

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, HCQ therapy has been in the centre of debates, between hype and bashing, within and beyond the scientific community. Uncertainty about treatment efficacy relies mainly on the observational nature of the published studies so far and the major risks of bias and confounders. Many small single-centre retrospective studies did not find any impact of HCQ treatment on outcome in hospitalized COVID-19 patients [11,[13], [14], [15], [16]], but were not powered to explore associations with mortality endpoint through robust multivariate analysis. Recently, larger observational studies found that the use of HCQ alone or in combination with AZM was independently associated with lower in-hospital mortality [17], [18], [19], in line with our results.

In conclusion, in this large nationwide observational study of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, HCQ monotherapy administered at a dosage of 2400 mg over five days was independently associated with significant decrease in mortality compared to patients not treated with HCQ. This impact was observed in both early and late treatment group, suggesting that this benefit might be mediated by immunomodulatory properties, a hypothesis worth addressing as evidence of an antiviral activity of HCQ on SARS-CoV-2 appears increasingly inconsistent. Considering the availability and cheapness of HCQ, it seems worth further investigating the clinical effect of optimized dosage of HCQ and designing add-on studies in ongoing trials to monitor, beyond the viral shedding and infectiousness, a relevant set of inflammatory markers during the course of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
 

kendrid

Banned
If these tests are giving out false positives, then I can imagine how low the total death rate is...

Simply google "deaths [month] 2019 vs 2020. Substantially higher this year.
 

Liljagare

Gold Member
Simply google "deaths [month] 2019 vs 2020. Substantially higher this year.

Now, compare to 2015, or 2008
 

rykomatsu

Member
New study out of Belgium shows HQC had positive results among 8,000+ patients:


Moving goalpost - that journal isn't prestigious enough or something

Edit: or it's not a double blind placebo study or something like that
 
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diffusionx

Gold Member
More evidence for the poop miasma theory:


We've discussed this a few times in this thread. We're all wasting our time and energy with these dumb masks and social distancing. Just clean your goddamn toilets more lmao.
 
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Chittagong

Gold Member
If the miasma theory is right, what can one do to guard against it? Toilet covers always down? Plug the sinks? N95 when taking a shit?

I’m returning to our 28th floor London apartment in October 😬
 
H

hariseldon

Unconfirmed Member
If the miasma theory is right, what can one do to guard against it? Toilet covers always down? Plug the sinks? N95 when taking a shit?

I’m returning to our 28th floor London apartment in October 😬

Shit in the streets so you don’t have to face other people’s poo fumes.
 
By the time Brazil has registered 100k Death of covid-19, according to official medical data, there has been about 35k less Death of pneumonia compared to the same period of 2019.

Its almost like a great portion of people who died due to pneumonia Last years, suddenly no longer die of it exclusively, It need to have that covid-19 PLUS special edition.

What your guys thoughts on this?
 
By the time Brazil has registered 100k Death of covid-19, according to official medical data, there has been about 35k less Death of pneumonia compared to the same period of 2019.

Its almost like a great portion of people who died due to pneumonia Last years, suddenly no longer die of it exclusively, It need to have that covid-19 PLUS special edition.

What your guys thoughts on this?

Covid causes (among other things) pneumonia which causes death. A certain number of the people would have gotten pneumonia from a different disease but it's impossible to say how many. It also depends how you register the death of someone with both covid and pneumonia.
 
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