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[duckroll]

I mean, maybe their output seems better to me because they didn't localize a lot of the stuff you could be calling questionable, but over here it looks like their record is pretty darn good. Of their unlocalized stuff, Yosumin was pretty awesome, and I can't imagine the Chocobo's Dungeon port or Chocobo Tales 2 were weak. I guess that leaves Nanashi no Game, Sigma Harmonics, Blood of Bahamut, FF Gaiden, and SaGa 2?

I'm referring to the Japanese releases in particular, and I'm not saying there are very few good S-E DS games. I'm saying that they released so many in the region that the percentage of good games is much lower than it should be. That definitely hurts my perception of their output on the system. I also don't count the Taito label stuff, which is actually much better when viewed on it's own. Low output, but mostly good titles.

That's why I compared to the PS1 library. There were quite a number of classics and REALLY good games from Square on the PS1, but once you step away from anything FF, you have gems like PE, Xenogears, Musashi, Vagrant Story, and then you have a LOAD of crap like Another Mind, CyberOrg, Front Mission Alternative, Soukaigi, Racing Lagoon, etc.

My point is that this very uneven output of tons and tons of titles, many of which were outsourced (just like DS games now), has a danger of leading directly into a repeat of the launch and early-gen PS2 era of Squaresoft games. I don't think anyone would want that for the 3DS or any platform honestly.

 

[Nirolak]

I think they've put out too many lackluster games, they have a bunch of solid, but unremarkable games besides for the remakes and The World Ends With You and Dragon Quest Heroes.

I agree on that front. I think Square Enix could really benefit from adopting the "fewer, but better" strategy for their handheld releases. There's a definite correlation between the titles marked "Awesome" and the titles that sold very well.

 

[duckroll]

I agree on that front. I think Square Enix could really benefit from adopting the "fewer, but better" strategy for their handheld releases. There's a definite correlation between the titles marked "Awesome" and the titles that sold very well.

"Fewer, but better" is definitely a good strategy, but for the PSP it seems they went on the other end of the spectrum which is pretty bad too: there's about 1 major game released on the platform every year, and at most 2 lesser titles in the rest of any particular year. The lesser titles aren't even original titles, but either remakes or enhanced ports. Some years it's really just a single title. That's really bad too, even though the titles have all been of a high quality. Square Enix doesn't understand the meaning of balance.

 

[Road]

Hmm... FFXIII.

Sales to retailers:
- S-E: 1.85 million (March 31st)

Sales to consumer estimations:
- Famitsu: 1.88 million (March 28th)
- Dengeki: 1.86 million (March 28th)
- M-Create: 1.84 million (Jan. 10th)

 

[Spiegel]

Hmm... FFXIII.

Sales to retailers:
- S-E: 1.85 million (March 31st)

Sales to consumer estimations:
- Famitsu: 1.88 million (March 28th)
- Dengeki: 1.86 million (March 28th)
- M-Create: 1.84 million (Jan. 10th)

KHBBS is worse

Dengeki > 800k
S-E = 750k

 

[Road]

KHBBS is worse

Dengeki > 800k
S-E = 750k

But Dengeki has been caught over-tracking many times. haha

With FFXIII it seems all trackers were too excited. The only explanation is if SE is not counting bundled sales in their shipments. IDK.

 

[Celine]

It's weird, because they announce two games for Wii at E3 '06, both planned to be "launch period" titles. They never quite achieved that goal, did they?

Well DQS came out 8 months after the launch so more or less one did it ( with the help of a Nintendo second party ).
It sold quite well too albeit hugely frontloaded.

EDIT:

Hmm... FFXIII.

Sales to retailers:
- S-E: 1.85 million (March 31st)

Sales to consumer estimations:
- Famitsu: 1.88 million (March 28th)
- Dengeki: 1.86 million (March 28th)
- M-Create: 1.84 million (Jan. 10th)

MC superiority confirmed !
Take that Schuelma

 

[Stumpokapow]

But Dengeki has been caught over-tracking many times. haha

With FFXIII it seems all trackers were too excited. The only explanation is if SE is not counting bundled sales in their shipments. IDK.

There's a pretty logical explanation to all trackers overtracking FF13.

Trackers cover a large percentage of the market and extrapolate the rest. Games that do "better" than they should in the percentage of the market that is not covered will be undertracked. Games that do "better" than they should in the percentage of the market that is covered will be overtracked.

I don't know what kind of stores sell games in Japan. In Canada, we have game stores (EBGames), electronics/media stores with game sections (Blockbuster, HMV, FutureShop/BestBuy, Rogers Video), supermarkets (Wal-Mart, Loblaws), and then places that sell only a few games--say Shopper's Drug Mart which is a sort of hybrid pharmacy-small supermarket.

It goes to reason that casual games probably sell better in the latter section of that list and hardcore games probably sell better in the beginning section of that list. It also goes to reason that video games sales tracking is more concentrated in the beginning section of the list.

I would guess that games like Final Fantasy are hardcore; super frontloaded and mostly sold at video game specific places. Because these stores are tracked, 60% coverage of the market covers more than 60% of the game's sales, and extrapolation leads to overtracking.

Whether this is the real reason or not, I have no idea, but it's what makes the most logical sense.

 

[The_lascar]

MC superiority confirmed !
Take that Schuelma

Read better, the last time when FFXIII was in the top 10 Media Create is the 01/04 - 01/10 week.
And for this week :
Media Create : 1 843 843
Famitsu : 1 837 736

 

[donny2112]

I guess that leaves Nanashi no Game, Sigma Harmonics, Blood of Bahamut, FF Gaiden, and SaGa 2?

Classical Music Training. duckroll is upset at them for Classical Music Training. They dissed Bach.

 

[schuelma]

Read better, the last time when FFXIII was in the top 10 Media Create is the 01/04 - 01/10 week.
And for this week :
Media Create : 1 843 843
Famitsu : 1 837 736

OH SNAPPP

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Wait, really?


. I guess that leaves Nanashi no Game, Sigma Harmonics, Blood of Bahamut, FF Gaiden, and SaGa 2?

Or the 90 other(yes literally more then 90) ds games they've released so far, http://www.square-enix.com/jp/game/nds/not really sure if we count Casual Square-enix SNOOPY as "square-enix) but they sure haven't been shy about releasing anything and everything on ds.

 

[Jokeropia]

You really think they're not going to release a MH game on PS3 at some point?

One significant enought to sell >1 million? That's certainly not a foregone conclusion.

 

[Vinnk]

Not that this means much but looking at comgnet 10 days before its release Galaxy 2 has 50% more preorders from Galaxy at the same time frame. Can any j-gaffer give any information about the hype and the advertising from Nintendo? Just don't tell me that Nintendo pushes harder NSMBW from Galaxy 2.

I have seen a few posters and pre-order info. But no real ads yet. It is not being pushed nearly as much as NSMBW was (or still is for that matter). But the original Galaxy wasn't pushed very well before launch either it actually got its best ads a few weeks after it came out.

 

[Celine]

Read better, the last time when FFXIII was in the top 10 Media Create is the 01/04 - 01/10 week.
And for this week :
Media Create : 1 843 843
Famitsu : 1 837 736

To myself:
C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER

 

[Stumpokapow]

Classical Music Training. duckroll is upset at them for Classical Music Training. They dissed Bach.

Or the 90 other(yes literally more then 90) ds games they've released so far, http://www.square-enix.com/jp/game/nds/not really sure if we count Casual Square-enix SNOOPY as "square-enix) but they sure haven't been shy about releasing anything and everything on ds.

So that takes care of classical music and Snoopy... when is Pingu going to make an appearance in the thread?

 

[-WindYoshi-]

Here I was under the impression folks didn't like DQM Joker all that much. Silly me, should hit 1 million in the next week and a half eh?

I loved the hell out of that game!

 

[onken]

One significant enought to sell >1 million? That's certainly not a foregone conclusion.

The original post was about potential million sellers, not foregone conclusions.

 

[Jokeropia]

The original post was about potential million sellers, not foregone conclusions.

I think it was at least limited to games that are likely to actually be released. If you're just talking about potential game concepts that if they were to be realized potentially could sell a million you can make a pretty long list.

 

[onken]

I think it was at least limited to games that are likely to actually be released. If you're just talking about potential game concepts that if they were to be realized potentially could sell a million you can make a pretty long list.

It's certainly not a foregone conclusion that DQX is coming out on a console this gen, but that apparently made the cut?

 

[Jokeropia]

It's been officially announced, so yes.

 

[onken]

It's been officially announced, so yes.

So was Monster Hunter PS3 :lol

 

[Jokeropia]

So was Monster Hunter PS3 :lol

And it would've been worth mentioning here if it hadn't also been officially cancelled.

Furthermore, DQX was kinda reconfirmed on a TV show just last month.

 

[onken]

And it would've been worth mentioning here if it hadn't also been officially cancelled.

Furthermore, DQX was kinda reconfirmed on a TV show just last month.

Don't worry there's still plenty of time to annouce they're changing platform to 3DS!

 

[Jokeropia]

If that actually happens, then we can remove it from this discussion.

 

[donny2112]

Don't worry there's still plenty of time to annouce they're changing platform to 3DS!

DQX won't be an early title for a system. The PS1 game was released after the PS2 was released. If it's already started on Wii, it probably can't change development to the DS and come out by 2011. Therefore, the choices are likely either 1) Wii, even if it's close to Wii 2's release (BC for Wii 2) or 2) it won't be coming out for many more years as Enix waits to see what systems do next generation.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[Spiegel]

[NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters Joker 2 - 90k / 981k
[PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker - 53k / 635k
[PSP] Hakuouki - 19k
[PS3] 2010 FIFA World Cup: South Africa - 12k
[PS3] Super Street Fighter IV - 11k / 108k
[PS3] NieR Replicant - 10k / 110k

1. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters Joker 2
2. [PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker
3. [PSP] Hakuouki
4. [Wii] New Super Mario Bros Wii
5. [Wii] Wii Fit Plus
6. [NDS] Friend Collection
7. [WII] Mario Kart Wii
8. [PS3] 2010 FIFA World Cup: South Africa
9. [PS3] Super Street Fighter IV
10. [PS3] NieR Replicant

 

[Pureauthor]

DQMJ2 approaches nongame status.

Given that I think Peace Walker sales are gonna tank hard across the pond, I hardly think 600K+ is really enough. :/

 

[Fularu]

Don't worry there's still plenty of time to annouce they're changing platform to 3DS!

This has zero chances of happening.

It's either for the Wii or moved to the DS.

 

[duckroll]

DQMJ2 should end up with very similar sales to the original. It might or might not pass the original, it's a bit too early to tell, but it's definitely on track to sell about 1.2-1.3 million at least. Very big success for a sequel of a spin-off coming out 4 years after the original, and closely following a ton of other more mainline DQ releases. It really shows the strength of the DQ brand in Japan.

PW is doing well, but the drop off is a bit telling. It's also too early to tell how much leg power the title has just yet, but it doesn't look like it'll pass a million. It'll probably still hit about 800k in the end, but unless it stays in the 40-50k range for several weeks, it doesn't have much chance of breaking MGS3's record. it's also tracking behind Dissidia, which makes 900k+ very unlikely.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Legend of Kage 2 was also pretty sweet. Can't forget that.

 

[faridmon]

Wait, really?

Children of Mana: OK
DQM: J: Meh
Revenant Wings: Poor, although others thought it was better than that
TWEWY: I didn't much go for it, but reception was certainly awesome
Tactics A2: Pretty good

CoM: awful
DQM: J: awful
RW: awsome
TWEWY: on of the best games this gen
Tactiics A2: bloody awsome

[soiler] don't know my point though, so you have to excuse me in that reagrd[/spoiler]

 

[donny2112]

it's definitely on track to sell about 1.2-1.3 million at least.

So DS will end up with more million-sellers than millions of systems sold. Has this ever happened in Japan before?

Edit:
How much did N64/PS1 sell? They have 5/18+ million-sellers, respectively.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Sigma 2 480k. Not bad.

 

[duckroll]

CoM: awful
DQM: J: awful
RW: awsome
TWEWY: on of the best games this gen
Tactiics A2: bloody awsome

[soiler] don't know my point though, so you have to excuse me in that reagrd[/spoiler]

RW blows as a game. Story was okay. Also, you just soiled your pants. :lol

 

[Sohter.Nura]

Hmm... FFXIII.

Sales to retailers:
- S-E: 1.85 million (March 31st)

Sales to consumer estimations:
- Famitsu: 1.88 million (March 28th)
- Dengeki: 1.86 million (March 28th)
- M-Create: 1.84 million (Jan. 10th)

Hm, the difference is NOT so brutal it's not accurate enough, but could be a lot worse.

It's not like we're comparing it to ********

 

[Pureauthor]

RW is one of the most brainless games I have ever played. it is literally 'Summon espers, point them in direction of enemy group, rinse, repeat.'

 

[Stumpokapow]

RW is one of the most brainless games I have ever played. it is literally 'Summon espers, point them in direction of enemy group, rinse, repeat.'

My 45 second review of the game:
"A spinoff that does nothing to leverage its heritage and nothing to expand on its heritage. The old characters are here, reluctantly, and the new characters are unnecessary additions.

So, does it work as a game? Well, not really. It's one of those games with no shortage of mechanics, but none are really all that fun.

All in all, it's kinda like the Melba Toast of games. It's easily digestible, but bland and by the end you're left wondering why you bothered. C"

 

[Pureauthor]

I will say this for RW - the scenery is very pretty.

 

[Fularu]

I think the game was fine for the 10$ price tag I paid for it (brand new), beyond that, I would have felt ripped off

 

[farnham]

CoM: awful
DQM: J: awful
RW: awsome
TWEWY: on of the best games this gen
Tactiics A2: bloody awsome

[soiler] don't know my point though, so you have to excuse me in that reagrd[/spoiler]

DQMJ was a competent Pokemon alternative with a pretty good breeding system. I personally dont get the hate

 

[duckroll]

DQMJ was a competent Pokemon alternative with a pretty good breeding system. I personally dont get the hate

Maybe some people like DQ but have no interest in anything similar to Pokemon? It's possible.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu after 3 weeks

[NGB] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland (Enix) - 59.360 / 510.411
[NGB] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Cobi's Journey (Enix) - 116.802 / 777.508
[NGB] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Tara's Adventure (Enix) - 31.065 / 199.669
[GBA] Dragon Quest Monsters: Caravan Heart (Square Enix) - 64.354 / 382.500
[NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker (Square Enix) - 47.689 / 928.331
[NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (Square Enix) - 90.0000 / 981.000

Another million seller for DS. 32 now with Joker 2. 7th for S-E.
This must be the reason they have nothing else announced for DS after Joker 2. This system is a disappointment for them. No wait, they have Densha de Go! (it was a million seller 13 years ago)
With 3DS coming this fiscal year it doesn't look it will beat 42 Famicom had.
DS has at least 3 more to come (Level 5 to the rescue).

Sure bets
Pokemon Black / White
Inazuma Eleven 3: World Challenge!! Spark / Bomber
Professor Layton and the Curious Village (possibly already a million seller when Famitsu 2009 top 1000 comes out)

Very good bets
Ni no Kuni: The Another World

Risk bets
Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box (low chance)
Style Savvy (low chance)
Cooking Navi (very low chance)
Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day (very low chance)

Famicom will keep the crown unless Nintendo unveils any new million seller and some old games close to 1 million show unexpected good legs.

Famitsu after 3 weeks

[PS1] Metal Gear Solid (Konami) - 58.202 / 466.808
[PS2] Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty (Konami) - 47.913 / 592.835
[PS2] Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (Konami) - 84.174 / 694.307
[PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops (Konami) - 53.476 / 247.899
[PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops Plus (Konami) - 22.795 / 152.668
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Konami) - 32.661 / 576.437
[PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker (Konami) - 53.000 / 635.000

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If they announce anything for the 3DS at E3, which would already be unusual, don't expect it to be out until 2012.

?? Last go around they had announcements at E3 2004, and two releases in 2005. Why not this time?

 

[cvxfreak]

How many Famicom million sellers are post-SFC launch?

 

[Zen]

Well Peace Walker is certainly performing better than MGS4, but I think Kojima and co were hoping it might before a little bit better than this considering the PSP platform in Japan and the MH tie in. It still doing really well for MGS in Japan, obviously. It will probably beat 1 million when re-releases and the like come out.

DQMJ2 approaches nongame status.

Given that I think Peace Walker sales are gonna tank hard across the pond, I hardly think 600K+ is really enough. :/

How much did Peace Walker retail for in Japan? Aren't games typically priced higher? Even if they aren't Peace Walkers Break Even point shouldn't be above 1 million units sold (if it was 1 million, that would be a bit surprising).

 

[Chris1964]

How many Famicom million sellers are post-SFC launch?

27/08/83 01 [NFC] Mahjong (Nintendo) - / 2.130.000
09/09/83 02 [NFC] Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - / 1.630.000
07/12/83 03 [NFC] Baseball (Nintendo) - / 2.350.000
14/01/84 04 [NFC] Tennis (Nintendo) - / 1.560.000
01/05/84 05 [NFC] Golf (Nintendo) - / 2.460.000
20/07/84 06 [NFC] Road Runner (Hudson) - / 1.100.000
02/11/84 07 [NFC] F1 Race (Nintendo) - / 1.520.000
02/11/84 08 [NFC] 4 Player Mahjong (Nintendo) - / 1.450.000
08/11/84 09 [NFC] Xevious (Namco) - / 1.270.000
30/11/84 10 [NFC] Excitebike (Nintendo) - / 1.570.000
30/01/85 11 [NFC] Ice Climber (Nintendo) - / 1.000.000
09/04/85 12 [NFC] Soccer (Nintendo) - / 1.530.000
21/06/85 13 [NFC] Kung Fu (Nintendo) - / 1.420.000
13/09/85 14 [NFC] Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - / 6.810.000
08/11/85 15 [NFC] Kinnikuman: Muscle Tag Match (Bandai) - / 1.050.000
21/02/86 16 [NFC] The Legend of Zelda (Famicom Disc System) (Nintendo) - / 1.690.000
05/03/86 17 [NFC] Ninja Hatori-kun (Hudson) - / 1.500.000
17/04/86 18 [NFC] Gegege no Kitaru: Youkai Daimakyou (Bandai) - / 1.250.000
27/05/86 19 [NFC] Dragon Quest (Enix) - / 1.500.000
03/06/86 20 [NFC] Super Mario Bros. 2 (Famicom Disc System) (Nintendo) - / 2.650.000
13/06/86 21 [NFC] Star Soldier (Hudson) - / 1.000.000
21/07/86 22 [NFC] Volleyball (Famicom Disc System) (Nintendo) - / 1.980.000
06/08/86 23 [NFC] Metroid (Famicom Disc System) (Nintendo) - / 1.040.000
02/09/86 24 [NFC] Adventure Island (Hudson) - / 1.050.000
21/10/86 25 [NFC] Pro Wrestling (Famicom Disc System) (Nintendo) - / 1.420.000
23/10/86 26 [NFC] Doraemon (Hudson) - / 1.150.000
27/11/86 27 [NFC] Dragon Ball: Shenron no Nazo (Bandai) - / 1.230.000
10/12/86 28 [NFC] Pro Baseball Family Stadium (Namco) - / 2.050.000
19/12/86 29 [NFC] Kid Icarus (Famicom Disc System) (Nintendo) - / 1.090.000
14/01/87 30 [NFC] Zelda II: The Adventure of Link (Famicom Disc System) (Nintendo) - / 1.610.000
26/01/87 31 [NFC] Dragon Quest II (Enix) - / 2.400.000
26/06/87 32 [NFC] Moero! Pro Baseball (Jaleco Entertainment) - / 1.580.000
22/12/87 33 [NFC] Pro Baseball Family Stadium '87 (Namco) - / 1.300.000
10/02/88 34 [NFC] Dragon Quest III (Enix) - / 3.800.000
23/10/88 35 [NFC] Super Mario Bros. 3 (Nintendo) - / 3.840.000
20/12/88 36 [NFC] Pro Baseball Family Stadium '88 (Namco) - / 1.610.000
22/12/88 37 [NFC] Tetris (Bullet Proof Software) - / 1.810.000
15/02/89 38 [NFC] Famicom Jump: Hero Biography (Bandai) - / 1.100.000
11/02/90 39 [NFC] Dragon Quest IV (Enix) - / 3.100.000
27/04/90 40 [NFC] Final Fantasy III (Square) - / 1.400.000
27/09/90 41 [NFC] Dr. Mario (Nintendo) - / 1.530.000

21/11/90 Super Famicom launch

23/03/93 42 [NFC] Kirby's Adventure (Nintendo) - / 1.000.000

Only one million seller after Super Famicom (and that one barely made it)

 

[Spiegel]

How much did Peace Walker retail for in Japan? Aren't games typically priced higher? Even if they aren't Peace Walkers Break Even point shouldn't be above 1 million units sold (if it was 1 million, that would be a bit surprising).

Apparently actual development of the game only took a year.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/04/21/hideo_kojima_signs_letters/

They can't have spent too much money to make the game. It should be profitable already.

And like I said before, they were only fooling themselves if they thought that putting 3 Monster Hunter monsters in the game would make it sell >1M.

 

[duckroll]

Apparently actual development of the game only took a year.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/04/21/hideo_kojima_signs_letters/

They can't have spent too much money to make the game. It should be profitable already.

The game definitely cost quite a bit more than I expected. The end credits are massive, even compared to major PSP titles like Dissidia and Birth by Sleep. Crisis Core was probably a more expensive game, but I don't think PW will be able to do Crisis Core sales worldwide.

And like I said before, they were only fooling themselves if they thought that putting 3 Monster Hunter monsters in the game would make it sell >1M.

I'm not sure why you keep bringing up the Monster Hunter monsters. It's not a big deal at all in terms of Peace Walker, and honestly I never felt they were a huge deal to begin with. What is a big deal is how different the game is in terms of direction and design compared to previous MGS games. It's definitely designed to capitalize on the PSP market in Japan in every way possible. There's tons and tons of replay value and post-game content, it co-op gameplay is the very backbone of the game, there's tons of customization and a shitload of equipment, and so on. It's a multiplayer action game through and through.