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[ethelred]

Ultimately I don't mind this trend because it means that the PSP will have better software sales.

Does not follow.

 

[kswiston]

You are aware that Smash accounted for 89% of all Wii software sales in that period of time, right?

Actually, based on the PS3 sales, Smash isn't counted at all. If the week of smash was counted, PS3 software should be over 300k

Plus, Wii Fit has sold more than 100k units in 2008. So there's no way smash is included.

 

[Christine]

Does not follow.

What are you saying? That PSP hardware sales aren't a reliable indicator for the software sales, so we can't use the movement of one to predict the movement of the other, or something else?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Actually, based on the PS3 sales, Smash isn't counted at all. If the week of smash was counted, PS3 software should be over 300k

Plus, Wii Fit has sold more than 100k units in 2008. So there's no way smash is included.

The fuck?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Plus, Wii Fit has sold more than 100k units in 2008. So there's no way smash is included.

Fair enough, but even taking into account this, look at the Wii's top 30 sales this year:

Mario Party 8 68175
Wii Play 102701
Wii Sports 126850
Super Mario Galaxy 62017
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 74415
Wii Fit 93695
Mario Party 8 16221
Wii Play 26386
Wii Sports 41141
Super Mario Galaxy 17617
Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles 8200
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 19574
Wii Fit 93306
Mario Party 8 15318
Wii Play 19328
Wii Sports 31213
Super Mario Galaxy 16643
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 17241
Wii Fit 108459

As you can see, there are a total of 0 titles on that list that debuted in 2008. The only 3rd party appearance is RE:UC. Now, it's perfectly valid to ponder why Nintendo titles have had such long legs to the point that the Wii is able to rack up a million top 30 sales with only catalog titles, but the fact remains that there are no 3rd party titles that ought to have made the top 30.

The Wii does have 3rd party problems, no doubt, and I've gotten flack in these very threads before for arguing that, but I hardly think that arbitrarily saying "The top 30 famitsu rankings for the first four weeks say 3rd party are 1% of the Wii's software sales" is a useful description of anything. The reality, while poor, is likely to be an order of magnitude better than that.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

What are you saying? That PSP hardware sales aren't a reliable indicator for the software sales, so we can't use the movement of one to predict the movement of the other, or something else?

It's never really worked at parity with the PSP.

Hardware sales jump, software doesn't.

This past week was better for the PSP then weeks prior, but don't act like the oddity is the norm.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Wow. So during the time period these figures cover, 3rd party Wii software sales in the weekly Top 30 accounted for LESS than 1% of total Wii software sales? It's expected that first party software sales will outpace the combined third party software sales on a Nintendo system, but that's rediculous. Unfortunately, with Smash selling like gangbusters, that percentage doesn't look like it will be increasing all that much over the next few weeks.

What is the next third party Wii release that has a good chance of breaking 200k in its first week? Winning Eleven?

What were the new third party releases on Wii though? Some Hitman Reborn game and that's it, I think? Third party sales are basically UC. Only very few games have legs that take them through more than a few weeks.

So PES Wii will have a better opening week than PES PS3? :lol PES was already sold to it's fanbase - Konami either succeeds in getting new gamers in (advertisement, interest in the new control method) or PES Wii will bomb horribly. I don't think they'll spend too much on advertisement and the control method looks too complicated for the average gamer, in conclusion: bomba.

Although I'll do my share once it gets released in Europe - may be one of it's kind (as in: doesn't get a sequel) and the control scheme looks intrigueing as hell.

 

[donny2112]

Simply, as mentioned before, there is no point to compare YTD 2008 sales performance right now.

If people are saying that the PSP software performance is doing pretty well now, then there is a very valid point to look at YTD software performance now. Just so you won't feel that the Famitsu to Media-Create time difference is slighting the PSP any, here are the YTD software figures through the week of 1/28-2/3 from the Famitsu Top 30s, though it is missing #25 (unknown system) from this past week.

Note: This is also why it's better to let the SQL total the data instead of doing it manually. I messed up the PSP software total by making it 100K too high. :/

5-weeks of data:

All software:
WII - 2.14 million
NDS - 1.68 million
PS2 - 536K
PS3 - 371K
PSP - 320K
360 - 40K

3rd-party software:
NDS - 702K
PS2 - 536K
PS3 - 350K
PSP - 295K
WII - 53K
360 - 40K

Famitsu Hardware (using 2 weeks of rounded numbers) in same timeframe:
NDS - 644K
WII - 586K
PSP - 449K
PS3 - 201K
PS2 - 85K
360 - 33K

You are aware that Smash accounted for 85% of all Wii software sales in that period of time, right?

Those numbers are from JoshuaJSlone's site, which only has the Top 30s through the week of Jan 14-20 up. The numbers in this post would be more accurate, if you wanted to include SSBB and didn't want to wait. It's just much easier to reference JJS's numbers, since they're online.

 

[kswiston]

The fuck?

I was just pointing out that Donny's figures clearly don't include this week (he's said as much. They're based off Famitsu numbers which are a week or two behind media-create), because YTD PS3 sofware was listed at <20k.

DMC4 + Disgaea 3 + AC were over 280k combined on this week's Media-create chart, hence my statement that PS3 software should be over 300k if those numbers included SSBB's debut week.

 

[donny2112]

I was just pointing out that Donny's figures clearly don't include this week (he's said as much. They're based off Famitsu numbers which are a week or two behind media-create), because YTD PS3 sofware was listed at <20k.

Unless I screwed something else up (no promises!) the figures in my previous post should be accurate through the same week as this topic with the exception of that one game missing from the rounded Top 30.

 

[kswiston]

Unless I screwed something else up (no promises!) the figures in my previous post should be accurate through the same week as this topic with the exception of that one game missing from the rounded Top 30.

Third party Wii sales have improved a little when entering the extra data (4% of the total now), but I still think that publisher's are missing the boat big time right now on the Wii. Even with big titles like Smash and Wii fit, the ratio of first party to third party should never be 25:1. There also shouldn't be a month between anything but budget releases and cheap ps2 ports on a system that is currently the market leader.

Wii software attach rate was 3.65 for January (twice that of the PS3 attach rate). Japanese Wii owners are obviously buying games. More third parties should be taking a chance on the Wii, even if Nintendo will always have the lions share of software sales on the system.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Those numbers are from JoshuaJSlone's site, which only has the Top 30s through the week of Jan 14-20 up. The numbers in this post would be more accurate, if you wanted to include SSBB and didn't want to wait. It's just much easier to reference JJS's numbers, since they're online.

Yeah I caught that afterwards and went in and did a custom query to actually pull what was happening.

 

[The_Joint]

When is Vinnk's report? I like that.
DS had a good run and all that. Yep.

 

[AnimeTheme]

If people are saying that the PSP software performance is doing pretty well now, then there is a very valid point to look at YTD software performance now.

- SKIP -

I haven't recalled anyone here saying PSP sw is doing very good "right now" (in 2008). Some people here, including myself, just said many PSP games did better than they were in the pre-Slim period. I don't think your figures disprove it or anything.

BTW, if we "spin" your figures, we will get some interesting information.

If we count 12-31-2007 to 1-20-2008 (ie. your previous version of figures), the NDSSP sw ratio is 7.13:1. If we count 12-31-2007 to 2-3-2008 (ie. your current version), the ratio is 5.25:1. If we skip the first week and count 1-6-2008 to 2-3-2008, the ratio is just 4.3:1.

 

[Vinnk]

When is Vinnk's report? I like that.
DS had a good run and all that. Yep.

Hopefully tomorrow. Just been super busy lately.

Preview:

Smash sold out in most stores
SSBB is finally getting some in-store advertising
Wii sold out in 3 stores, low supply in another 2 (local trend? National?)
DMC4 PS3 bundle sold out
DMC4 360 bundle not sold out
WE2008 Wii is getting better advertising than I expected

 

[DayShallCome]

I haven't recalled anyone here saying PSP sw is doing very good "right now" (in 2008). Some people here, including myself, just said many PSP games did better than they were in the pre-Slim period. I don't think your figures disprove it or anything.

BTW, if we "spin" your figures, we will get some interesting information.

If we count 12-31-2007 to 1-20-2008 (ie. your previous version of figures), the NDSSP sw ratio is 7.13:1. If we count 12-31-2007 to 2-3-2008 (ie. your current version), the ratio is 5.25:1. If we skip the first week and count 1-6-2008 to 2-3-2008, the ratio is just 4.3:1.

Not only is this analysis silly (you can't 'skip' weeks that are statistically damning), but it still points to a software ecosystem where DS is a much more viable platform than PSP (by a LOT).

At this point, it's safe to assume that PSP's market value (of which there is evidently quite a bit, judging by great HW sales) is simply not related to its SW library. A few games here and there will sell well, but publishers in general won't put a lot of effort into diversifying the lineup. This is a fact, and it won't change. Get used to it.

 

[schuelma]

Hopefully tomorrow. Just been super busy lately.

Preview:

Smash sold out in most stores
SSBB is finally getting some in-store advertising
Wii sold out in 3 stores, low supply in another 2 (local trend? National?)
DMC4 PS3 bundle sold out
DMC4 360 bundle not sold out
WE2008 Wii is getting better advertising than I expected

Interesting. Thanks Vinnk!

 

[test_account]

FAX was the source for the leaked early FULL numbers. Not a fax, FAX. Confusing, I know.

Before FAX went the way of the dodo: sinobi leaked first-day numbers -> leaked famitsu numbers -> real media create numbers -> real famitsu numbers

Now: sinobi leaked firsty-day numbers -> real media create numbers -> real famitsu numbers.

Make more sense?

Oh, so FAX is the name of the source, not a fax as in telefax? Hehe sorry for the missunderstanding, thanks for clearing that up Ye, that makes more sence, thanks Pity that the leaked Famitsu numbers are gone though, but atleast we get the real Famitsu numbers alittle later so its no problem in my opinion

 

[Liabe Brave]

The Wii does have 3rd party problems, no doubt, and I've gotten flack in these very threads before for arguing that, but I hardly think that arbitrarily saying "The top 30 famitsu rankings for the first four weeks say 3rd party are 1% of the Wii's software sales" is a useful description of anything. The reality, while poor, is likely to be an order of magnitude better than that.

Let's go with the entire lifetime of the consoles since the 360 launch, then:

Since 360 launch, all software sales:

DS   52065700 
PS2  23524921 
Wii  10687821 
PSP   6738260 
PS3   1874831 
GBA   1530610 
X360   868390 
GCN    343630 
ETC     24310

Since 360 launch, all third-party software sales:

PS2  22397985 
DS   16390838 
PSP   6165428 
Wii   1309781 
PS3   1273289 
GBA    786929 
X360   556996 
GCN     95534 
ETC     24310

Which gives us the following results:

Percentage of total software sales by third-party since 12-09-05:
ETC  100.00%
PS2   95.21%
PSP   91.50%
PS3   67.92%
X360  64.14%
GBA   51.41%
DS    31.48%
GCN   27.80%
Wii   12.26%

Since these numbers only include Top 30 and not the mass of trickle-through catalog titles, they may distort the true picture somewhat. But Nintendo unequivocally occupies the bottom of the list, and Wii is by far the worst culprit.

Of course, the fact that Nintendo rules their machines and you can't hope to match them doesn't necessarily mean that it makes more sense to move to other platforms; installed base numbers mean that, say, DS mediocrity can be more profitable than PSP success. But that total third-party DS sales are a mere 2.5 times higher than on PSP is still kind of shocking.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Not only is this analysis silly (you can't 'skip' weeks that are statistically damning), but it still points to a software ecosystem where DS is a much more viable platform than PSP (by a LOT).

First of all, there is a reason why I stressed "spin", and I also mentioned it multiple times it's pretty pointless to compare YTD 2008 figures at this point. Consider them some fun info/spinnings or just ignore them if you must. I don't take them at anything face value, either.

BTW, I don't see anything fatally wrong to "skip" the first week (it's just a change in the starting point of the covered period). First, that week (which still had the holiday effect) did cover some time in 2007. Second, by skipping that week, it makes the trend more obvious that PSP is doing better and better.

At this point, it's safe to assume that PSP's market value (of which there is evidently quite a bit, judging by great HW sales) is simply not related to its SW library. A few games here and there will sell well, but publishers in general won't put a lot of effort into diversifying the lineup. This is a fact, and it won't change. Get used to it.

Yeah we all know PSP's major market value is and will not be games. However, when the hardware is growing at such an incredible rate, it's very reasonable to assume that the SW growth will also enjoy certain degree of benefits. I don't see anything wrong to expect more supports from game publishers.

 

[DayShallCome]

First of all, there is a reason why I stressed "spin", and I also mentioned it multiple times it's pretty pointless to compare YTD 2008 figures at this point. Consider them some fun info/spinnings or just ignore them if you must. I don't take them at anything face value, either.

BTW, I don't see anything fatally wrong to "skip" the first week (it's just a change in the starting point of the covered period). First, that week (which still had the holiday effect) did cover some time in 2007. Second, by skipping that week, it makes the trend more obvious that PSP is doing better and better.

Fair enough. I guess we're both in agreement that comparison at this point is a little fruitless (though it's always fun ).

Yeah we all know PSP's major market value is and will not be games. However, when the hardware is growing at such an incredible rate, it's very reasonable to assume that the SW growth will also enjoy certain degree of benefits. I don't see anything wrong to expect more supports from game publishers.

I still just don't see this happening. I guess we can wait to see what happens, but I have yet to see any evidence that the platform can sustain any increased SW support.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I still just don't see this happening. I guess we can wait to see what happens, but I have yet to see any evidence that the platform can sustain any increased SW support.

Please note that by saying this, you're making a strong positive claim: that the increase in PSP hardware sales since the slim consists entirely of people who will never buy a game. That seems unlikely at best. I think you should downgrade your assertion to something like "We'll see better software sales, but not nearly as much as the hardware lift would normally indicate." That seems better supported by historical data.

 

[BishopLamont]

Thanks Vinnks, interested in how WE2008 Wii will perform.

 

[ethelred]

Thanks Vinnks, interested in how WE2008 Wii will perform.

Terribly.

 

[Busaiku]

Terribly.

Probably worse than that.

 

[Lobster]

Thanks Vinnks, interested in how WE2008 Wii will perform.

I belive the sales will miss the net entirely.

 

[schuelma]

What do people think would be an acceptable opening week for WE Wii?

 

[jarrod]

What is the next third party Wii release that has a good chance of breaking 200k in its first week? Winning Eleven?

Uh, no chance. :lol

Try FFCC2, MH3 or something that hasn't been announced yet... whatever hits first.

What do people think would be an acceptable opening week for WE Wii?

40-50k. So I'm guessing it'll be 4-5k. :lol

 

[Lobster]

What do people think would be an acceptable opening week for WE Wii?

40k.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Typical MC thread, complete with the gang of MC threadites.


I see from the last several pages that this is once again turning into a "Wii third-party" mess, with arguments from both sides.


Is it a mess on the Wii? Of course. Only a rabid fanboy would try and argue otherwise. On the other hand, an intelligent fanboy would argue that the whole argument is null and void based on third-party releases, and quality of titles.


Thats what a smart fanboy would say.

 

[Rancid Mildew]

Typical MC thread, complete with the gang of MC threadites.


I see from the last several pages that this is once again turning into a "Wii third-party" mess, with arguments from both sides.


Is it a mess on the Wii? Of course. Only a rabid fanboy would try and argue otherwise. On the other hand, an intelligent fanboy would argue that the whole argument is null and void based on third-party releases, and quality of titles.


Thats what a smart fanboy would say.

It's hardly "null and void" if the only way to overcome that is for the Wii to begin selling these minor releases. You forget that almost every third party Wii title performs far worse than equivalent titles on competing and prior systems.

 

[KINGMOKU]

It's hardly "null and void" if the only way to overcome that is for the Wii to begin selling these minor releases. You forget that almost every third party Wii title performs far worse than equivalent titles on competing and prior systems.

What part of "fanboy" did you not get?

 

[ethelred]

Moku, are you positing that you're a smart fanboy rather than a stark raving nutter? If so, what a troubling turn this Media Create thread has taken.

It's hardly "null and void" if the only way to overcome that is for the Wii to begin selling these minor releases. You forget that almost every third party Wii title performs far worse than equivalent titles on competing and prior systems.

Don't do that. It's liable to be as productive as arguing with drohne, after drohne got very drunk and then hit by a bus, losing all cognitive capabilities.

Will a world without third parties affect the Wii's hardware success? Maybe not. But one thing is for sure; only a completely off-the-deep-end lunatic Ninthing would say "I don't need third party games anyway!"

Stumpy, allow me to introduce you to Media Create Land.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Thats what a smart fanboy would say.

There's no such thing as a "smart fanboy" by definition.

Between the DS and the Wii, I now have almost 120 games. I would say almost half of those are first-party. I've even got stuff like Tingle's Balloon Fight. There's no questioning the fact that I'm an enormous Nintendo fan. But a fanboy is nothing to be proud of.

It's a unique and horrible psychological affliction that causes individuals to consider the desires of a corporation before their own, accept less than the best, and miss out on a wide variety of the best gaming experiences ever made. That's not smart.

Will a world without third parties affect the Wii's hardware success? Maybe not. But one thing is for sure; only a completely off-the-deep-end lunatic Ninthing would say "I don't need third party games anyway!"

 

[HK-47]

Moku, are you positing that you're a smart fanboy rather than a stark raving nutter? If so, what a troubling turn this Media Create thread has taken.

Clearly the lose of his finger to a fireball has driven him to the brink

 

[schuelma]

ethelred- any thoughts on what 1st week number would make WE Wii not a complete failure?

I'm thinking 45-50K ish would be decent?

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

ethelred- any thoughts on what 1st week number would make WE Wii not a complete failure?

I'm thinking 45-50K ish would be decent?

Surely the only answer to that is a number that sets up a lifetime total revenue that exceeds development/marketing costs.

 

[ethelred]

ethelred- any thoughts on what 1st week number would make WE Wii not a complete failure?

Is it reasonable to expect it to outsell the PSP games? Everyone's told us that the PSP is a complete failure for software, so for the Wii version to be considered successful, it should need to outsell the complete failure that is the PSP, right?

 

[Stumpokapow]

But that total third-party DS sales are a mere 2.5 times higher than on PSP is still kind of shocking.

This is why median and standard deviation comparisons are more useful than just raw numbers. Yes, the PSP moved 6.5 million third party software units since November 2005. Of course, more than 50% of the third party software sales were the top five third party games (MHF2, Crisis Core, MGSO, Tactics, some dumb brain training knockoff).

On the other hand, only ~30% of the DS's third party sales in that period of time come from the top 5 DS third party games.

The median sale is probably a much more comprehensive measure of health based on available data. Obviously comparative budgets / profitability information would be better, but we don't have access to that sort of thing.

 

[schuelma]

Is it reasonable to expect it to outsell the PSP games? Everyone's told us that the PSP is a complete failure for software, so for the Wii version to be considered successful, it should need to outsell the complete failure that is the PSP, right?

You're always such a nice chap.

Anyways, I agree with you in theory, but we all know its not going to sniff 75K, which is why I phrased my question not in terms of being a success, but in terms of not being a complete bomb.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Moku, are you positing that you're a smart fanboy rather than a stark raving nutter? If so, what a troubling turn this Media Create thread has taken.



Don't do that. It's liable to be as productive as arguing with drohne, after drohne got very drunk and then hit by a bus, losing all cognitive capabilities.



Stumpy, allow me to introduce you to Media Create Land.

I seem to be getting a bad rap as of late. I am not a stark raving nutter. I have my moments, but aside from that, I can have a civil debate with the best of them.

You on the other hand, well, lets just say that I am less then impressed with your attempts to bait me into a debate about my sanity.

 

[Xeke]

I think the whole fanboy term is silly.

There are people who care rabidly about their favorite football team or their favorite soccer(football) team and they aren't called fanboys. I've had plenty of experience with peoples whose days are ruined because their team lost and it is considered normal.

These teams are really just corporations out to get our money by providing a form of entertainment by providing us with a game to watch. Likewise, Nintendo/MS/Sony are corporations who are out to get our money by providing us games to play.

If people can support sports teams with all of their hearts and not be criticized for it but not for their favorite game producer then I think there is some sort of double standard going on.

But I think letting anything get into your head THAT much, sports team or whatever, is silly.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Are we bashing Wii third party again? I thought it was doing relatively well.

Or is it doing well only in the US/Europe?

 

[gimz]

Hopefully tomorrow. Just been super busy lately.

Preview:

Smash sold out in most stores
SSBB is finally getting some in-store advertising
Wii sold out in 3 stores, low supply in another 2 (local trend? National?)
DMC4 PS3 bundle sold out
DMC4 360 bundle not sold out
WE2008 Wii is getting better advertising than I expected

oh yes, hows your wedding going? or you already got married?

 

[schuelma]

Are we bashing Wii third party again? I thought it was doing relatively well.

Or is it doing well only in the US/Europe?

By and large the only third party game to do well lately on Wii in Japan is RE:UC.

I will say I have a feeling Family Ski might have legs and do decently.

 

[clashfan]

Any chance Haruhi Suzumiya's Wonderment comming to US?

 

[Gaborn]

Is it reasonable to expect it to outsell the PSP games? Everyone's told us that the PSP is a complete failure for software, so for the Wii version to be considered successful, it should need to outsell the complete failure that is the PSP, right?

That would depend on shipment size, on advertising, and on demographics. Even if you assume a Wii user was exactly the same demographic as a PSP user, and even if you anticipate sustained good sales for a title (such as Mario Galaxy) you still have to put in place solid marketing for the version for the Wii, and you have to make sure there are enough game discs available to sell it.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I think the whole fanboy term is silly.

There are people who care rabidly about their favorite football team or their favorite soccer(football) team and they aren't called fanboys. I've had plenty of experience with peoples whose days are ruined because their team lost and it is considered normal.

1) People who are Dallas Cowboys fans don't refuse to watch Patriots games.
2) People who like the Red Wings don't demand that every good Ducks player gets traded.
3) People don't claim Michael Jordan was a good baseball player just because he played for their favourite team.

When this starts to happen, I'll insult people who have a favourite team in sports as well. Until then, why are we using a sport analogy for something that's clearly not a sport?

I'm a big fan of Disney movies, but it doesn't mean I won't watch Dreamworks. I'm a big fan of Al Pacino, but it doesn't mean I won't see a movie with Dustin Hoffman in it. Driving a Volvo is awesome, but if the rental company gives me a Toyota I'm not going to refuse to drive it. Pick whatever analogy you want to make, and video game fanboy behaviour is not comparable.

It's more comparable to PC users who refuse to use a particular brand of processor or video card regardless of where the pricepoint/performance sweetspot is... or people who refuse to use an operating system even if it is a better fit for what they want to do...

If you want to talk about it in academic terms, fanboyism is when capitalist reification continues to such an extent that an individual fully loses their humanity and fully subjectivizes a multi-billion dollar corporation. In my experience, this is something that is far more common in technology than any other sector of product..

 

[Eteric Rice]

By and large the only third party game to do well lately on Wii in Japan is RE:UC.

I will say I have a feeling Family Ski might have legs and do decently.

From what I understood a lot of games in the US/Europe did well, just in the long term.

That was my understanding, anyway.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm very happy with DMC4. Looks like the series will uptick worldwide. FEED ME MOAR capcom.