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Media Create Sales: 11/10 - 11/16
- Thread starter Jonnyram
- Start date
Flachmatuch
Member
Rancid Mildew said:
This is super retarded. Maybe Wii Music isn't a good game, but it's certainly very different from other music games, there's no problem with creativity there. It's especially idiotic to say in this retarded generation, where a first person viewpoint in a platformer and very badly done drama in a shooter are considered the pinnacle of innovation
And mistakes and fuckups come with creativity and taking risk. If Nintendo change directions after this, they're idiots.ShockingAlberto
Member
The fact that people still haven't understood that it's more about lifetime sales over a year than big sales over a week helps me understand why no one else tries Nintendo's strategy - it's seemingly hard to get.
BigGreenMat
Member
Does Wii have any big heavy hitters for the holiday season? It seems like Wii in japan is having the same dearth of quality content that we are having here in NA.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Animal Crossing is about it. Considering the first day sales, though, it might do SMG-like over there.BigGreenMat said:
charlequin
Banned
Laguna said:
Chrono Break or whatever seems more likely, honestly. This shows that people like the IP, but as Segs suggested, if they're going to make the royalty payments, why do it to port a game whose reputation hasn't aged all that favorably instead of resetting things with a brand new entry?
RpgN said:
I think it's ridiculous to consider these TLR sales a disappointment in any way. This isn't a leftover pre-launch project; TLR was unquestionably greenlighted with the actual state of HD gaming in Japan in mind, and with these sales it should perform near the top of the conceivable range for such a title.
HK-47 said:
The question you should be asking is whether the DS will reach 40 million, because that one at least is in doubt.
charlequin
Banned
RpgN said:
I'm arguing with your word choice and the implications it carries. These sales are not a disappointment because there isn't actually anybody being disappointed/i] by them. S-E can't possibly have expected numbers particularly higher than this at the time that they greenlighted the game, so I think any semi-objective observer has to take these day one numbers as an unqualified success.
RpgN
Junior Member
charlequin said:
Fair enough. Though don't forget the disappointed came from what they usually sell on the ps2/Ps1 and they would have wanted that kind of sales. Especially with budgets getting higher. It is still a huge succes on the xbox 360 with it's small userbase in Japan. That's what I was implying. But I guess my word of choice wasn't correct as you said.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Yeah, there were some numbers from a monthish back that had it at ~930K. Seems pretty doubtful it will hit a million at the rate it's been going this year. At least, barring some new SKU or rerelease.d+pad said:
Note that the main thing I was basing the "like SMG" thing on was that SMG had a first week of about 250K. If Animal Crossing had a first day of 175K it seems it could match or exceed that, and from there on holiday legs should be kind. Though I don't remember what SMG's first day was reported as.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Are you confusing Vesperia with Abyss? Or you mean disappearing the week after reappearing? Anyway, Abyss looks to be riding on the tv anime show popularity, like Inazuma Eleven for example although Abyss budget re-release was released in June last year. 2007 sales for the budget re-release (49,945) already made it go past Rebirth and 600k (606,410) so with these extra sales it might still reach 700k.jesusraz said:
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Namco has something Abyss-related to show in Jump Festa to release when the tv series ends (which should be March-April I suppose).
Minsc
Gold Member
Time to drop that last bit of hope, Animal Crossing Wii looks to have sold quite well. It'll probably outsell the GCN version too, and then the inevitable sequel three or four years down the road can be another straight rehash more or less. I was just hoping they might have been given some incentive to mix up the formula a little more in the form of low sales.
Minsc said:
It's was never going to be "low" sales, but I think it'll be enough of a downturn to encourage actual effort in the next version of Animal Crossing. Something worthy of being called Animal Crossing 1.5 instead of Animal Crossing 0.5 (DS) or Animal Crossing 1A (for Again, Wii).
Captain Smoker
Member
Next weeks releases, big week.
JoshuaJSlone said:
Agreed.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if AC Wii does more like 350k its first week (as opposed to the 250k-ish that would be suggested by the first-day numbers), just because Nintendo's casual-leaning titles seem to be less first-day loaded than others.
Oh, and Minsc: I have to agree with you somewhat. Though I'm sure I'll at least *like* AC Wii, I'm very disappointed that they didn't raise the bar quite a bit higher than they did. There are so many possibilities with this series that we should have moved beyond small, incremental changes from release to release. The way they're doing things, we won't see a 'real' Animal Crossing sequel until the next generation - at least. Ugh.
Captain Smoker
Member
Jokeropia said:So is anyone gonna post the hardware in the neatly formatted version?
Code:
Last Week YTD LTD
NDS 88.886 2.882.391 24.055.296
PSP 38.153 3.185.152 10.786.746
WII 26.787 2.363.317 6.979.477
PS3 17.448 779.261 2.420.897
360 7.983 247.490 754.832
PS2 5.421 432.078 21.495.013DSL = 3.559
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Famitsu Software Stuff
New software group: Kirby
The new Kirby has started off stronger than any within the scope of my database. Actually, its first week is bigger than any other game's two-week total. It's also worth noting the two top Kirby games here were also late October or early November releases.
Chocobo's Dungeon + (3255) on DS is doing worse than both the Wii original it's based on (2695), and DS's Chocobo Tales (148). Those two were both mid-December releases, though.
New software group: Kirby
The new Kirby has started off stronger than any within the scope of my database. Actually, its first week is bigger than any other game's two-week total. It's also worth noting the two top Kirby games here were also late October or early November releases.
Chocobo's Dungeon + (3255) on DS is doing worse than both the Wii original it's based on (2695), and DS's Chocobo Tales (148). Those two were both mid-December releases, though.
Stumpokapow said:
So I guess you are the expert on what an evergreen title is?
Miyamoto actually said the title is selling the way they expected it to.
Yes, no one knows if it will actually have long legs , but calling it a failure when other games fell off the charts and still went on to do great numbers is stupid.
Pureauthor
Member
onipex said:
Yes, because company spokespeople can be relied upon to tell people when they have disappointing sales.
I'm curious, name some of these games that 'fell off the charts'.
That aside, we don't call it failure simply because it fell off the charts. We call it a failure because stores are flooded with stock, both new and used, and they're not moving the copies very quickly.
slaughterking
Member
I wonder if the release of the third game is going to push both sequels over the million hurdle.Captain Smoker said:
test_account
XP-39C²
Thanks!Stumpokapow said:
Ah ok, cool
Ye, i think that sounds plausible, about that roughly 90% of all sales are in the top 50 Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
onipex said:
wellllllll
We can compare two different scenarios and you can tell me which is more plausible:
1) I'm right. Like any game EVER in the entire history of mankind, a 300k shipment with less than two thirds sold five weeks in signifies an overshipment / slower demand than expected. The game might have legs, or it might not, but clearly it didn't launch as big as Nintendo wanted and that bodes poorly for further shipments. In addition, all of the people in Japan who report walls and walls of it and tons of "rotten" (not selling) used copies sitting in most major retailers are right. Miyamoto is either wrong, misinformed, or spinning.
2) Miyamoto is right and all the evidence is wrong.
You're going on the latter because Miyamoto personally said "My game isn't a bomb!" Who has the vested interest here, and who has the evidence?
Again, I've already shown you the distinction between this and other major long legs titles. Those had modest initial shipments, sold through them, continued to sell, and sold for a long time. This more closely follows the pattern of Common Knowledge Training TV, another purported long legs title which did not live up to expectations.
Let's look at game sales in four quadrants:
- Large upfront, long legs - smash successes
- Large upfront, no legs - frontloaded / major franchises
- Small upfront, long legs - classic nongame model
- Small upfront, no legs - failures
So, where does Wii Music fit? Well, we know it's not either of the first two quadrants. Either it'll eke out very long legs and fit into the third, or it won't and it'll be a failure. How do we determine what's likely? We've got plenty of evidence:
Has it performed according to first shipment expectations? Absolutely not. Its launch was underwhelming by Nintendo's own expectations. We know this. Has it showed solid chart retention? Is it continuing to sell briskly, like, say Wii Fit? Absolutely not. It has stayed on the chart longer than many bombs, but it is dropping quickly and not demonstrating especially strong continued sales.
So the next question is... when will Nintendo get to do a new shipment of Wii Music? Well, if you assume that it retains 100% of its current weekly sales for perpetuity, demonstrating literally unheard of continued sales, then it will finish selling through its first shipment in February.
February. Five months after launch. Even if you generously assume the game gets a major holiday bump while maintaining 100% of its current weekly sales for perpetuity, you're still looking at the game finally moving its first shipment by the end of December, three months after launch. This does not bode well for further shipments.
Name these games, and we'll talk about their sales patterns and compare them to Wii Music. I'm not aware of any game that massively tanked its initial shipment, dropped rapidly down the charts, got to #31/#51, and sat there only to miraculously maintain sales for a long time, get many more shipments, and turn around.
I'm aware of low budget games that launched at 10k out of a 15k shipment and continued to sell 2-5k per week every week for a year, surprising everyone. I'm aware of stuff like Wii Fit launching big, staying big forever, and never leaving the charts. I'm not aware of any case where initial failure was a strong predictor of longterm success.
TJ Spyke said:
Uh, yeah, years later. Has he said when he was disappointed in the sales of a game 5 weeks after launch when he's in the middle of promoting that very game?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Jokeropia said:
There's a prime example of why the point about Wii Music is true or at least more likely to be true.
SMG took a long time to sell through its initial shipment. However, despite this it was selling very briskly (top ten for ten straight weeks) and consistently (no less than 35k until post-Christmas). Wii Music is not in that same position.
Also, when SMG was launched, widespread reaction here and elsewhere was "holy shit surprise bomb oh man what is Nintendo going to do?"... and Nintendo's MASSIVE advertising blitz linking SMG to NSMB and retro Mario games was credited at salvaging the initial underperformance. Do we see a similar potential being likely for Wii Music? As Segata said, Wii Music ads have ceased while Rhythm Tengoku Gold ads continue. If Nintendo is going to bank on a Holiday title, it's likely to be AC, Mario Kart, or Wii Fit... not Wii Music. Last year, SMG was THE title to bank on.
Also, if you look at the actual numbers, when it finished selling through its first shipment (IIRC was 750k, which SMG hit a week of 12-31) sales basically ceased. Future shipments were small, future sales were not all that high, plenty of used copies were available, retail price dropped.
In fact, the problem was so bad that there was discussion of Nintendo getting mad and threatening retailers who moved to drop prices within a few weeks of release. It was an absolute disaster for retailers relative to initial pre-order expectations.
In SMG's case, the general conclusion was that the initial shipment was too aggressive based on Mario's ability to sell on home consoles. Basically, that it was a failure relative to initial expectations, just phrased more positively
. I think the reason why this was spun in a more positive light than Wii Music is that Wii Music is not seen as a "best of breed" product around here, and moreover Nintendo has proven that Wii Music-like games CAN sell, they're just having specific trouble with Wii Music itself--whereas SMG is not a disappointment relative to similar class products, it was just a disappointment based on initially unrealistic expectations.JoshuaJSlone
Member
I don't disagree with the basic premise that Wii Music is underperforming expectations.
No clue what it's done since, though.
That one actually does seem to have had some fair legs, though at a low level. It dropped off the Top 30 after three weeks, but by the time we got a mid-year list it had stealthily more-than-doubled.Stumpokapow said:
No clue what it's done since, though.
I believe SMG's initial shipment was 700K or 750K, which it took 9 weeks to pass. If we'd based how long it would take on a week 5 flatlining, though, we'd have thought it would take 13 weeks.
BishopLamont
Banned
Seeing sales for Chrono Trigger DS, I'm betting on a DS port.RpgN said:
Stumpokapow said:
I was actually going by an earlier quote by someone from Nintendo ( can't find it right now) that said they expected the game to sell outside of the top ten. This was before the release , while the Miyamoto quote was after.
I didn't know the game shipped at 300k until I came in this thread. That goes against almost everything I've seen Nintendo say about the expected sales of the title.Maybe Nintendo pushed that amount and maybe retailers had enough faith in the title to order that amount.
I may have been mistaken about the other games that sold similar.SMG came to mind , but the posts above me covered that one.
@RPGn
On how many Discs was Resident Evil 2 on? (it was on 2) And there was a N64 version with all cutscenes and extra content despite beeing on a 512Mbit (64MB vs. ~1,4GB) cartridge. So i doubt this will be a problem on DS with its far more capacity than N64 cartridges and knowing that nowadays there are more advanced movie compression tools. If that all isn´t enough, they´ll just cut them (CG) off or do new and shorter ones.
On how many Discs was Resident Evil 2 on? (it was on 2) And there was a N64 version with all cutscenes and extra content despite beeing on a 512Mbit (64MB vs. ~1,4GB) cartridge. So i doubt this will be a problem on DS with its far more capacity than N64 cartridges and knowing that nowadays there are more advanced movie compression tools. If that all isn´t enough, they´ll just cut them (CG) off or do new and shorter ones.
RpgN
Junior Member
Laguna said:
That will take more work than just a straight port. It's definitely possible, but it gives them more headache to get it working properly, instead of putting it on the psp without a hassle and adding new stuff. And I don't see them making shorter CG or cut a whole portion of them. That's just a downgrade instead of retaining everything from the original and adding new stuff.
Chrono Trigger's success will just show them that ports sell well, and the Chrono franchise is still wanted a lot. They will use evey chance to release another Chrono game but not necessary on the ds.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
> > CLICK HERE FOR FULL SOFTWARE CHARTS < <
> > CLICK HERE FOR FULL HARDWARE CHART < <
Code:
[B][U]Hardware | This Week | Last Week | Last 4 Weeks | YTD | LTD [/U][/B]
DS | 88,886 | 113,278 | 413,423 | 2,881,967 | 24,055,021
PSP | 38,153 | 43,726 | 192,704 | 3,185,666 | 10,850,743
WII | 26,787 | 24,726 | 98,928 | 2,363,317 | 6,979,456
PS3 | 17,448 | 18,354 | 79,320 | 779,261 | 2,420,937
PS2 | 5,421 | 5,743 | 24,840 | 430,112 | 21,357,152
360 | 7,983 | 12,759 | 34,705 | 247,490 | 755,935
> > CLICK HERE FOR FULL CONSOLE CHARTS < <
solid2snake
Banned
Laguna said:
or give us RE2 via VC.