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CHART FRENZY

This last chart is a year-on-year comparison of the two lead consoles. I extended the previous year line to potentially predict where this year's line might be expected to go. I think using this as a predictive tool should be met with caution; one can clearly see the effects of last year's gundabump on the 2007 PS3 line, of which the PS3 has no similar title this year. I think combining this last chart with momentum, availability, and significant releases the following week might lead to an interestingly close predictive tool. In this case, one might say next week the Wii may hit around 52k, but using the same ideas (especially of momentum--or lack of it), and suggest that the PS3 may hit around 14k.

Questions regarding the year on year chart:
[ ] So the Wii was supply constrained last year but it is not at this moment, right? Is it odd to you that this year's results so closely match last year's capacity?

[ ] For a review of how last year went, look up to the "Next-Gen Weekly Sales" line chart. If I counted correctly, the PS3 was below 25k for around 40 weeks last year...yet the Wii was only below 50k 14 times last year. Looking back at the same chart, and taking a large grain of salt with the assumption of the year-on-year chart, would one be able to look at the "Next-Gen Weekly Sales" chart and conclude that the contest was over AFTER A MERE 6 WEEKS?

Follow: After those first 6 weeks of both launches, sales for the Wii stayed remarkably steady between 50-85k, while the PS3's sales stayed remarkably in the basement around 12-19k. Barring the proximity that the PS3 enjoyed to the Wii's sales approaching last year's holiday, the PS3 has never been remotely close to the Wii. Looking back, it began after those first 6 weeks. So, was it really over that quickly? Could those next 6 weeks of sales under 20k been a red flag? Should Sony have acted more quickly to combat the momentum (savage price cuts?)? Was it over before it began?

 

[justchris]

I like Panther's charts, but he didn't take into account Ryu Ga Gotoku 3 which released this week, which (hopefully) will have a similar affect to Gundabump last year (if a week later).

If the PS3 does ~14k next week, that is a sad, sad thing, and does not speak well of RGG3's chances for legs.

 

[Grecco]

What makes you think this? It sold exceptionally well for a spin-off game.

Its an RPG Prequel to the most popular Final Fantasy of all time. To call it a "spin off" is dismisive. It aint Dirge of Cerberus 2.

 

[Minsc]

I like Panther's charts, but he didn't take into account Ryu Ga Gotoku 3 which released this week, which (hopefully) will have a similar affect to Gundabump last year (if a week later).

If the PS3 does ~14k next week, that is a sad, sad thing, and does not speak well of RGG3's chances for legs.

I enjoy the charts too, despite my dumb comment from the other week. I think the PS3 may see significantly less of a bump than from '07, but I'm not really basing that on anything other than a guess. It is a fair bit lower, so 20K > 44K last year would place next weeks sales at only ~37K with a similar sized bump. It is certainly possible, but I'd put my money on the upper 20s, and probably lose it. :lol

 

[thestopsign]

I like Panther's charts, but he didn't take into account Ryu Ga Gotoku 3 which released this week, which (hopefully) will have a similar affect to Gundabump last year (if a week later).

If the PS3 does ~14k next week, that is a sad, sad thing, and does not speak well of RGG3's chances for legs.

You might see the PS3 go up too 25k. Just a guess.

 

[ethelred]

Its an RPG Prequel to the most popular Final Fantasy of all time. To call it a "spin off" is dismisive. It aint Dirge of Cerberus 2.

Crisis Core is a spinoff. The term is a descriptive, not a dismissive.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Media Create numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 41.3 / 58.7, PSP's best since Crisis Core week. This brings the total shares to 72.3 / 27.7. At this week's rates PSP catches up to DS in 623.8 weeks (February 15, 2020). If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 184.4 weeks (September 14, 2011).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 17.3 / 82.7, Wii's best since last July. This makes the third straight week of 80+% for Wii. This brings the total shares to 26.1 / 73.9. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 260.3 weeks (February 27, 2013).

Based on the latest Famitsu numbers...
PS3 comparisons: After 68 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 15.8 weeks (June 16, 2000), where PSP was at 45.3 weeks (October 18, 2005), where GCN was at 67.4 weeks (December 24, 2002), and where Wii was at 16.7 weeks (March 22, 2007).

Yup, GameCube has leapfrogged PS3 again.

Wii comparisons: After 65 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 64.7 weeks (June 13, 2002), where DS was at 56.8 weeks (December 30, 2005), where PS2 was at 89.6 weeks (November 15, 2001), and where PSP was at 129.1 weeks (May 27, 2007).

Looks like Wii could pass up GBA soon?

resistance say hi :lol

Resistance also says "16K first week."

 

[the thoroughbred]

I can't believe that SMG is so far down, it isn't even going to make a million, in a time when million sellers are everywhere.

 

[Lobster]

I can't believe that SMG is so far down, it isn't even going to make a million, in a time when million sellers are everywhere.

If it sells an average of 1k a week (currently its selling about 4k but thats bound to drop) for a whole year it will have sold 48k..

Its need 3 years to get to a million..

Unless it sells 50k+ during golden week..

 

[cvxfreak]

Galaxy will eventually break a million. It's much slower than most predicted, but it'll get there.

 

[Innotech]

why are people surprised at Galaxy? It was always going to be a game with legs that would drop out of the charts but climb its way to a million. People predicted that way back at the end of last year. It would hit around 850k then drop off steeply and take at least a year to hit 1 million.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Self-answering time lol


http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/sqldirect.php?queryid=399
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/sqldirect.php?queryid=402

Fami top 30: 2008-1-1 to 2008-2-15 (number in bracket is 3rd party)

NDS - 1,135,939 (463,885)
PSP - 420,656 (389,664)


Last year data for comparison:


http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/sqldirect.php?queryid=400
http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/sqldirect.php?queryid=401

Fami top 30: 2007-1-1 to 2007-2-15 (number in bracket is 3rd party)

NDS - 4,576,880 (1,577,118)
PSP - 330,348 (330,348)

Interesting post. So, PSP software sales are only slighty better then last year, but DS sales are only 1/4 of 2007 !!! Probably because Nintendo isn't supporting its handheld massively now anymore.

 

[jarrod]

Crisis Core is a spinoff. The term is a descriptive, not a dismissive.

Not all spinoffs are created equal however... nothing wrong with bringing attention to those differences and enriching the discourse. Crisis Core is pretty easily the highest profile spinoff in Final Fantasy history, and it's sales largely reflect that I'd say. It's basically FFVII-0 really, more comparable to something like FFX-2 than a Crystal Chronicles or a Tactics.

 

[ethelred]

Not all spinoffs are created equal however... nothing wrong with bringing attention to those differences and enriching the discourse. Crisis Core is pretty easily the highest profile spinoff in Final Fantasy history...

No, it isn't.

It's basically FFVII-0 really, more comparable to something like FFX-2...

Still no.

 

[jarrod]

No, it isn't.

Really, yes it is.

Still no.

Still wrong.

 

[ethelred]

Really, yes it is.
Still wrong.

Fantastic response. What's next, "I know you are, but what am I?" Really, Jarrod, the schoolyard stuff should be beneath you.

 

[cvxfreak]

Is this really something that can be objectively argued?

 

[jarrod]

Fantastic response. What's next, "I know you are, but what am I?" Really, Jarrod, the schoolyard stuff should be beneath you.

Seemed the appropriate response to your well reasoned and thoughtfully explained eloquence. Hypocrite.

 

[ethelred]

Is this really something that can be objectively argued?

Oh, absolutely. We can look at objective criteria like prominence of the team placed on the project, the system the project on which was developed, its release relative to the main series, and so on. Crisis Core was a central piece of the Compilation project and so was of course a high profile spinoff, but the biggest ever? No, not really. There's also the matter of who the final arbiters are of how high profile and major a spinoff are. Would it be the consumers? In their judgment, it was not the biggest.

It's also pretty easy to objectively place it outside whatever category FFX-2 falls under: X-2 retains the same development team as its original game, was in fact developed by the "main" Final Fantasy series team, and worked off the same core gameplay as the main system rather than mechanically going a spinoff route; narratively, it also directly continued the main story arc of the original game by featuring one of the two central characters of the original, whereas Crisis Core focused on a tertiary character from the original story and told his story -- and while his story may well expand the mythology of the original story, it's still not at all the same thing.

And there we have it. Objectivity.

 

[jarrod]

Oh, absolutely. We can look at objective criteria like prominence of the team placed on the project, the system the project on which was developed, its release relative to the main series, and so on. Crisis Core was a central piece of the Compilation project and so was of course a high profile spinoff, but the biggest ever? No, not really. There's also the matter of who the final arbiters are of how high profile and major a spinoff are. Would it be the consumers? In their judgment, it was not the biggest.

Well, that'd beg the question... what was the highest profile Final Fantasy spinoff then? You've laid out some decent criteria for consideration, but you've basically stopped there?

It's also pretty easy to objectively place it outside whatever category FFX-2 falls under: X-2 retains the same development team as its original game, was in fact developed by the "main" Final Fantasy series team, and worked off the same core gameplay as the main system rather than mechanically going a spinoff route; narratively, it also directly continued the main story arc of the original game by featuring one of the two central characters of the original, whereas Crisis Core focused on a tertiary character from the original story and told his story -- and while his story may well expand the mythology of the original story, it's still not at all the same thing.

Saying FFX-2 "directly continued the main story arc of the original game" is a bit disingenuous honestly... the whole merits of comparison sort of fall flat though given your selective quoting taking my original statement out of context. It's frankly unfair on your part, though not exactly unexpected... the argument is less about CC: FFVII being the "same thing" as FFX-2, it's more about it being more similar to FFX-2 than it is FFT or FFCC.

 

[ethelred]

It's frankly unfair on your part, though not exactly unexpected...

I know you are, but what am I.

 

[MisterHero]

I know you are, but what am I.

A garbageman.

 

[lyre]

A garbageman.

Takes one to know one.

 

[MisterHero]

Takes one to know one.

Oh yeah???

A garbageman.

*defiantly hitches up pants*

 

[Pureauthor]

Takes one to know one.

*rspppprrrrr*

 

[jarrod]

I know you are, but what am I.

Stuck in the schoolyard?

 

[ethelred]

Stuck in the schoolyard?

It's hard to have a proper debate from the high ground, so I thought I'd come down to your level.

 

[C.T.]

I disagree that Crisis Core is a spin-off as well, even though it's got another protagonist. The whole purpose of CC was to expand and complete the FF VII universe. While Cloud was the main character of 7, integral to its story was Zack and what he did. Cloud was a newbie and hadn't the insights of Zack. Therefore a CC from Clouds perspective wouldn't be as delightful and wouldn't make much sense neither. The whole "it wasn't a AAA Team who did it" doesn't make much sense. Since when is it a deciding factor? If we argue that way, we could say FF:CC is a main entry in the series. Gameplay-wise? Its scrapped the turn-based but still has it FF VII traits.

 

[Pureauthor]

I disagree that Crisis Core is a spin-off as well, even though it's got another protagonist. The whole purpose of CC was to expand and complete the FF VII universe. While Cloud was the main character of 7, integral to its story was Zack and what he did. Cloud was a newbie and hadn't the insights of Zack. Therefore a CC from Clouds perspective wouldn't be as delightful and wouldn't make much sense neither. The whole "it wasn't a AAA Team who did it" doesn't make much sense. Since when is it a deciding factor? If we argue that way, we could say FF:CC is a main entry in the series. Gameplay-wise? Its scrapped the turn-based but still has it FF VII traits.

Your arguments really don't have much to do with whether or not Crisis Core is a spinoff. I mean, ToSotNW features the same old cast as in Tales of Symphonia, but it's still a spinoff.

 

[ethelred]

I disagree that Crisis Core is a spin-off as well

Ah. Then you're, well, wrong, since it is a spinoff to the main Final Fantasy series. There are thirteen games at the moment, counting X-2, but the rest are all spinoffs. That's not to say it's a bad game, or that the team that made it is bad, or that it isn't a worthy entry bearing the Final Fantasy name. But it is a spinoff.

Gameplay-wise? Its scrapped the turn-based but still has it FF VII traits.

Sure, and Final Fantasy Tactics had moogles and chocobos and V's job system. It's a spinoff.

 

[Fady K]

Whats going on here, none of your views is objective, nor is mine - regarding FFVII CC. Though I will agree with Jarrod here, crisis core is a prequel to FFVII more than it is a spinoff, otherwise - FFX-2 is a spinoff. A sequel/prequel does not have to share the same gameplay traits at all, as evidenced by the craptacular Guilty Gear sequel on the 360.

 

[Fady K]

Your arguments really don't have much to do with whether or not Crisis Core is a spinoff. I mean, ToSotNW features the same old cast as in Tales of Symphonia, but it's still a spinoff.

ToS : DotNW will be regarded as a spinoff by some, and a sequel by others. Unless Namco-Bandai goes out of their way to say "Yes, our new Symphonia game is in fact a spinoff/ or is in fact a sequel."

 

[samratty]

It's a spin off unless they incrementally increase the number suffixing the title of the series. That is my, and now the defacto definition.
That means games that decrease the number like RE0 or SFZero/Alpha are spinoffs.

In the case of Crisis Core, or FFX-2, they may be prequels or sequels to thier respective entry in the main series, but they're still spin offs of the main series.
As far as I'm conserned, and as I already established I am right, main entries into game series follow a chain rather than a web.

I have not defined this in the case of games which don't us numbered sequeling. For that I leave it you GAF, choose your path, but choose wisely.

 

[jay]

It's a spin off unless they incrementally increase the number suffixing the title of the series. That is my, and now the defacto definition.
That means games that decrease the number like RE0 or SFZero/Alpha are spinoffs.

In the case of Crisis Core, or FFX-2, they may be prequels or sequels to thier respective entry in the main series, but they're still spin offs of the main series.
As far as I'm conserned, and as I already established I am right, main entries into game series follow a chain rather than a web.

I have not defined this in the case of games which don't us numbered sequeling. For that I leave it you GAF, choose your path, but choose wisely.

So each new Zelda and Mario is a spinoff of Zelda 2 and Mario 3?

 

[Ryu1999]

So each new Zelda and Mario is a spinoff of Zelda 2 and Mario 3?

It can be easily argued that Wind Waker and Twilight Princess are spinoffs of OoT

(yeah, i went there) :O

 

[jay]

It can be easily argued that Wind Waker and Twilight Princess are spinoffs of OoT

(yeah, i went there) :O

I wasn't taking a position, just asking. Of course I did mean to imply that many series don't number entries and solely going by number may get very messy very quickly.

 

[donny2112]

But it is a spinoff.

... in your opinion using your own definition.

I'm not trying to convince you otherwise, as each person in this probably has their own opinion based on the facts. Therefore, throwing those same facts back out isn't going to change anyone's opinion.

From a "whatever it is" perspective, I doubt that Square-Enix expected it to cap off at ~750K when the project was greenlighted considering the success of the game it was tied to and the prospects of the system it was being put on.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Don't Blizzard games require online fees each month? That would greatly affect sales if you cannot play online. Pirating would be a waste of time.

Errr, only their MMO has a monthly fee. All their other games don't, and still sold in the millions.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If it sells an average of 1k a week (currently its selling about 4k but thats bound to drop) for a whole year it will have sold 48k..

Its need 3 years to get to a million..

Unless it sells 50k+ during golden week..

Super Mario 64 DS sold more than 300K after its final appearance in the Top 30. Super Mario Sunshine, 150K. To miss a million, Galaxy will need to never appear again and do less than 130K.

 

[Spiegel]

... in your opinion using your own definition.

I'm not trying to convince you otherwise, as each person in this probably has their own opinion based on the facts. Therefore, throwing those same facts back out isn't going to change anyone's opinion.

From a "whatever it is" perspective, I doubt that Square-Enix expected it to cap off at ~750K when the project was greenlighted considering the success of the game it was tied to and the prospects of the system it was being put on.

They expected more than 50% better sales than the other FF7 spin off/sequel (Dirge of Cerberus) on a console without an userbase of +20 millions?

 

[donny2112]

They expected more than 50% better sales than the other FF7 spin off/sequel (Dirge of Cerberus) on a console without an userbase of +20 millions?

Boy, you have some epic failure in that post.

Dirge of Cerberus: Final Fantasy VII - Release date 1/26/2006
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII - Announced 10/31/2004

 

[ethelred]

... in your opinion using your own definition.

Fair enough, but in a series with a rigid numbering system and a set number of games falling outside of that numbering system, it seems pretty logical to classify the first group as the main series and the second as spinoffs (irrespective of quality, even though I consider FFT to be one of the finest games bearing the moniker). That seems to be the common definition and the one with the widest accuracy. Obviously waters get muddied when talking about non-numbered series.

Boy, you have some epic failure in that post.

Dirge of Cerberus: Final Fantasy VII - Release date 1/26/2006
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII - Announced 10/31/2004

Oops.

 

[Spiegel]

Boy, you have some epic failure in that post.

Dirge of Cerberus: Final Fantasy VII - Release date 1/26/2006
Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII - Announced 10/31/2004

That's true, my mistake.

But I don't think S-E expected 750k+ after DoC

 

[Askia47]

JJConrad, I don't think the minutiae of this back and forth you're having with Stumpokapow are really relevant in comparison to the basic issue that your core argument (more people physically steal PSPs implies that more people violate copyright to illegally copy and play PSP games) is, like, totally specious.



In general, I think it is like that; I tend to reject the argument that piracy is responsible for bad PC game sales as well, in favor of something more like what Stumpokapow is laying out for PSP (a bunch of different factors that combine into a "perfect storm.") But it's also worth noting that two of the three titles you mention have a network component that in and of itself eliminates a huge swath of potential piracy.



Stumpokapow went over this in detail above. The R4 is advertised and well-known in Japan; there's definitely no meaningful gap in terms of awareness of it vs. PSP CFW.

If your argument is instead that the DS is primarily owned by children/old people/whatever and therefore relatively immune to piracy, I... really don't think that argument holds up with the specific software titles that have succeeded on the DS platform.

So if that doesnt hold up then your saying its pretty much the games that are the reason for psp software not selling? I still think CFW is more convenient, but I dont know where else to go with the argument. If DS games are just as easy, then why arent the sales down for those too. It just seems as though the psp could be easier because a memory stick comes with it and you can begin pirating immediately. I know what your saying about different factors beside piracy, but I think piracy is still having a main affect on the psp, while other factors could be more secondary. or maybe it just comes down to the games, (or lack of).

 

[itxaka]

If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 184.4 weeks (September 14, 2011).

If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 260.3 weeks (February 27, 2013).

I really love this posts Joshua. It just make me realize how established on japan is nintendo rigth now.

And really good numbers for PSP, it deserves it, but the software need to go up.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Fantastic response. What's next, "I know you are, but what am I?" Really, Jarrod, the schoolyard stuff should be beneath you.

You wouldn't be a good politician, you know?

 

[Slurpy]

Who cares about Japan sales. What are WW sales for SMG?

 

[MisterHero]

Who cares about Japan sales. What are WW sales for SMG?

5-6 millionz

 

[samratty]

I wasn't taking a position, just asking. Of course I did mean to imply that many series don't number entries and solely going by number may get very messy very quickly.

I expected something like that, especially on GAF.
I'm just playing around really, being facetious. I don't really care for defining a true overarching definition nor am I trying to make one, it's a waste of time.

However, the point is that in terms of FF my silly definition is really the most logical one - which is what I kinda figured people would get.
People will argue that it's my definition and my opinion, but then you know people will arguing on what defines an apple pie. (Which is where I'd prefer this to go personally)

 

[cw_sasuke]

5-6 millionz

fuckin awesome..could reach 10mil when it`s all said and done